Downloading...
Download

Eurozone

$EUIRYY - Europe CPI (June/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 2% June/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Eurozone consumer price inflation rose slightly to 2.0% year-on-year in June 2025, up from May’s eight-month low of 1.9% and in line with market expectations, according to a preliminary estimate. The figure aligns with the European Central Bank’s official target. Among major economies, inflation in Germany unexpectedly declined, while France and Spain saw modest increases and Italy’s rate held steady.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
EURUSD Tests 17-Year Long-Term Trend!!!After Trump announced an additional 20% in tariffs, EURUSD made a relatively surprising move and surged sharply. This marks the second leg of the upward trend that began in early March. However, the sharp rise has now brought EURUSD to the doorstep of a very long-term resistance level. Since testing 1.60 in 2008, EURUSD has been moving lower within a wide descending trend channel that has held for 17 years. Since 2015, the pattern has evolved into a wedge formation within this broader channel. The most recent test of this resistance came last year, but at the time, a weak Eurozone economy, crowded Euro long positions, and a hawkish Fed prevented a breakout. This time, the landscape is different. The Eurozone is showing early signs of recovery, the ECB’s rate cuts appear to be nearing their end, and European countries have started to band together following a decline in confidence in their biggest ally and decide to increase technology, defence spending. Despite these developments, the medium-term effects of the new tariffs and the strength of the long-term resistance level are likely to prevent a clear breakout for now. Still, the long-term outlook is beginning to shift in favor of the euro, and a breakout later this year carries a significant probability.
by ftdsystem
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY March/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation in the Euro Area eased to 2.2% in March 2025, the lowest rate since November 2024 and slightly below market expectations of 2.3%. Services inflation slowed to a 33-month low (3.4% vs. 3.7% in February), while energy costs declined (-0.7% vs. 0.2%). However, inflation remained steady for both non-energy industrial goods (0.6%) and processed food, alcohol & tobacco (2.6%), and unprocessed food prices surged (4.1% vs. 3.0%). Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.4%, slightly below market forecasts of 2.5% and marking its lowest level since January 2022. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6% in March, following a 0.4% advance in February.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Is the Euro's Stability a Mirage?The Euro Currency Index stands at a crossroads, its future clouded by a confluence of political, economic, and social forces that threaten to unravel the very fabric of Europe. Rising nationalism, fueled by demographic shifts and economic fragility, is driving political instability across the continent. This unrest, particularly in economic powerhouses like Germany, triggers capital flight and erodes investor confidence. Meanwhile, geopolitical realignments—most notably the U.S.'s strategic pivot away from Europe—are weakening the euro's global standing. As these forces converge, the eurozone's once-solid foundation appears increasingly fragile, raising a critical question: is the stability of the euro merely an illusion? Beneath the surface, deeper threats loom. Europe's aging population and shrinking workforce exacerbate economic stagnation, while the European Union's cohesion is tested by fragmentation risks, from Brexit's lingering effects to Italy's debt woes. These challenges are not isolated; they feed into a cycle of uncertainty that could destabilize financial markets and undermine the euro's value. Yet, history reminds us that Europe has weathered storms before. Its ability to adapt—through political unity, economic reform, and innovation—could determine whether the euro emerges stronger or succumbs to the pressures mounting against it. The path forward is fraught with complexity, but it also presents an opportunity. Will Europe confront its demographic and political challenges head-on, or will it allow hidden vulnerabilities to dictate its fate? The answer may reshape not only the euro's trajectory but the future of global finance itself. As investors, policymakers, and citizens watch this drama unfold, one thing is clear: the euro's story is far from over, and its next chapter demands bold vision and decisive action. What do you see in the shadows of this unfolding crisis?
NASDAQ:XDEShort
by UDIS_View
Euro showing decline ahead of November CPI The euro is trending downward as the market anticipates the release of the Eurozone CPI for November this week. This decline is driven by rising uncertainty regarding the Eurozone economy, an apparent slowdown in inflation, and an increasing likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the ECB. French Central Bank Governor Villeroy de Galhau has stated that the ECB has the capability to cut rates independently of the Fed's monetary policy direction. He added that successive rate reductions are on the table as European inflation continues to ease. EURUSD declined sharply and briefly fell to 1.0330, the two-year low. EMA21 rapidly widened the gap with EMA78, showing an apparent bearish momentum. If EURUSD breaks below the descending channel’s lower bound and 1.0330, the price may fall further to the 1.0000 parity level. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches above the resistance at 1.0540 and EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0670.
by inkicho_exness
The euro lost its upward momentum due to recession fears Worries about a potential recession in the eurozone, coupled with the ECB's decision to implement further rate cuts, are negatively impacting the sentiment toward the euro. Spain's September CPI (YoY) dropped to 1.5%, marking the lowest since April 2021, while France's CPI (YoY) came in at 1.1%, falling short of the market consensus of 1.2%. Moreover, Germany's ZEW Current Conditions in October plummeted to -86.9, reaching the lowest since May 2020, intensifying concerns about the Eurozone economy. EURUSD briefly breached the descending channel’s upper bound but failed to hold the upward momentum, falling to 1.0810. If EURUSD maintains a downtrend within the channel, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches the channel’s upper bound again and rises above EMA21, the price could advance toward 1.0940.
by inkicho_exness
$EUINTR -Europe Interest Rates ECONOMICS:EUINTR (October/2024) source: European Central Bank - The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 bps in October 2024, as expected, following similar moves in September and June. The deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates will now be 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively. This decision stems from an updated assessment of inflation, which shows disinflation progressing well. In September, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in more than three years. While inflation is expected to rise in the short term, it should decline toward the 2% target in 2025. Wage growth remains high, but pressures are easing. The ECB remains committed to restrictive rates to ensure inflation reaches its medium-term goal, using a data-driven, flexible approach without committing to a specific rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Macro Monday 49~Ireland – The Fastest Growing Economy in the EUMacro Monday 49 Ireland – The Fastest Growing Economy in the EU According to forecasts by the European Commission the European Union is set to grow by a humble 1.7% in 2024 however Ireland is the country which is forecasted to grow the most with an annual growth rate of 5% expected for 2024. In Q1 2024, Ireland recorded a 1.1% increase compared to the previous quarter, indicating significantly strong economic performance against its closest peers at 0.8% by the likes of Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania. For the 2023 year the top three European countries for GDP per capita (average economic value of the productivity of each person) were; 1. Luxembourg €143,304 2. Ireland €137,638 3. Switzerland €89,537 I might note briefly that the above figures change for REAL GDP which factors in inflation or changes in the price levels. It accounts for the impact of rising or falling prices on economic output. The real GDP figures for Luxembourg and Ireland are €76,176 and €67,149, respectively. The average real GDP for the EU is €31,740, placing Luxembourg 240% above the average and placing Ireland at 112% above the average, respectively. Real GDP figures highlight both countries as being well above the EU average. Irelands Largest Exports Ireland’s largest export in 2023 was pharmaceuticals, which accounted for 34.2% of the country’s total exports. The top export products included blood fractions including antisera, heterocyclic's and nucleic acids, medication mixes in dosage, hormones including miscellaneous steroids, and electro-medical equipment. These major exports represented 54.5% of Ireland’s overall export sales. The United States was the largest single goods export market for Ireland, accounting for a significant portion of the exports. The pharmaceutical sector, particularly, places Ireland among the world leaders for exporting blood fractions including antisera, and the country is also a major competitor in selling medical, surgical, or veterinary instruments on international markets. The Best Performing Stocks In Ireland The best performing stocks in Ireland for the year 2023 were led by Ryanair, with an impressive share price movement of 51%. Other top performers included Cairn Homes with 47%, Kingspan with 43%, Glenveagh Properties with 33%, and Glanbia with 31%. These companies showed significant growth and were among the most successful in the Irish market according to the data from Euronext Dublin based on the period from January to December 2023. For the past 12 months leading up to May 2024, the best performing Irish stock was Adventus Mining (ADVZF) with a total return of 35.90%, followed by AIB Group (AIBGY) and Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIF). These stocks have shown resilience and growth, reflecting positive investor sentiment and strong market performance. The Irish Stock Exchange - EURONEXT:ISEQ The Irish stock market is called Euronext Dublin, formerly known as the Irish Stock Exchange (ISE). It has been in existence since 1793 and is Ireland’s main stock exchange. As for the equivalent of the S&P 500 in Ireland, there isn’t a direct counterpart that matches the scale and scope of the S&P 500. However, the closest equivalent in terms of a benchmark index for the Irish market would be the ISEQ All Share Index which has between 20 and 25 Irish based stocks in the index. The ISEQ tracks the performance of all companies listed on Euronext Dublin, making it a broad-based indicator of the overall Irish stock market performance. Here are the weightings (expressed as percentages) of the top components in the ISEQ All-Share Index as of March 30, 2024: 1. Ryanair Holdings PLC: Consumer Discretionary sector - 23.96% 2.Kingspan Group PLC: Industrials sector - 15.58% 3.Kerry Group PLC: Consumer Staples sector - 13.81% 4.AIB Group PLC: Financials sector - 12.31% 5.Smurfit Kappa Group PLC: Industrials sector - 11.03% Let’s have a look at the ISEQ All Share Index Chart: With Irelands economy firmly in growth mode and with most economist anticipating it to be the fastest growing economy in the EU for 2024, we can assume we will have some wind at our backs in entering a trade on the ISEQ all share index (no guarantees). ◻️ The chart demonstrates a pattern whereby the months of August since 2021 have not been good months however are followed by the ISEQ making lows in October, thereafter rallying into longer term bull periods. A pattern we could potentially take advantage of going forward. A sort of “Halloween Effect” in the Irish Economy, a term used to describe how markets in general perform well during the Halloween period to Christmas. ◻️ The chart speculates at a similar pattern this year for an August retraction followed by October continuation. ◻️ Entries in during these months should guided by the 200 Day SMA (blue line on the chart). Ideally you would want to be above this line or wait until we get above it or bounce from it (at present we are above it so we await a bounce for entry). You could place stops just below this moving average also having entered the trade. With the Irish stock market index looking great and economists hailing a year of growth, lets pick out one individual stock we could take advantage of with an impressive looking chart set up. Glanbia Plc - GETTEX:GL9 Glanbia plc is an Irish global nutrition group with operations in 32 countries. It has a 2.2% allocation in the ISEQ All Share Index and is one of Ireland’s key players in the agri-food and nutrition industry. They handle dairy and grain processing, contributing to a €2 billion industry. You might recognize their popular brands like Avonmore, Kilmeaden, and GAIN Animal Nutrition. Glanbia Ireland plays a vital role in processing milk and creating various products for both local and global markets. Glanbia’s products are sold or distributed in over 130 countries. This company utilizes one of Irelands greatest products, milk from the cows that feed on the greenest pastures the world has to offer, and distributes this goodness around the globe. The unique product offering is matched by an impressive chart: ◻️ The chart has a long term cup and handle pattern and great Risk: Reward set up as illustrated. We are well above the 200 day moving average (blue line on the chart) and appear to be breaking higher. This was one of the better charts I could find in Irelands top 20 stocks that are in the ISEQ All Share, however, Ryan Air appears to be bouncing off a strong resistance level at present having broken to new highs and is worth a review. I will skip it for now. Pfizor is the Largest Pharma Company in Ireland Interestingly, Pfizer is the largest pharmaceutical company in Ireland. They have a significant presence in the country, with seven locations across four counties and employing more than 3,300 people. Pfizer was one of the first pharmaceutical companies to establish operations in Ireland, setting up in 1969. Their work in Ireland includes research and development (R&D), manufacturing, shared services, treasury, and commercial operations. Over the years, Pfizer has invested more than $7 billion in its Irish operations, demonstrating its commitment to the country’s pharmaceutical sector In 2022, Ireland was the world’s biggest exporter of vaccines, blood, antisera, toxins and cultures, with exports valued at $47.3 billion. This sector plays a significant role in Ireland’s economy, contributing to its position as a leading exporter in the pharmaceutical industry globally. I’m not covering the chart for Pfizer but I thought this was an interesting edge in the Irish marketplace. Whilst Pfizer operates in Ireland, I cannot find it included in the ISEQ All Shares Index therefore holds multinational status operating within the country but not as an Irish entity. An important Note on Irelands GDP Irelands GDP figures have been highly contested by economists and investigative journalists for a host of reasons some of which are outlined below. These arguments hold weight and should be considered whilst factoring in an assessment of Irelands Economy: 1. Measurement Issues: Ireland's GDP figures have been influenced by multinational corporations (MNCs) that use Ireland as a base for various financial activities, leading to concerns about the accuracy of these figures. The presence of MNCs can distort GDP calculations due to factors such as transfer pricing, intellectual property rights, and other financial engineering techniques. 2. Distortion from Corporate Re-domiciliation: The phenomenon of corporate re-domiciliation involves companies relocating their legal headquarters to Ireland without significant physical operations in the country. This can artificially inflate Ireland's GDP figures without necessarily reflecting real economic activity within its borders. 3. Lack of Convergence with Other Economic Indicators: There have been concerns that Ireland's reported GDP growth does not align with other indicators such as employment levels or wage growth, prompting skepticism about the accuracy of the reported figures. 4. Impact of Statistical Adjustments: The calculation methods used in determining GDP can lead to statistical adjustments that may not fully capture economic reality or provide an accurate representation of domestic production and income. 5. Potential Policy Implications: The contested nature of Ireland's GDP figures has implications for economic policy decisions based on this data, potentially leading to misinformed policy choices if the underlying economic reality is not adequately captured. Finally, it is clear that Irelands economy is in growth mode and could present some good opportunities for investment. Ireland is also of major importance to the EU as one of the only native English speaking nations remaining in the EU (since the UK exit - Brexit). One could expect Ireland to receive special consideration and attention from the EU for a host of reasons moving forward, good and bad. A small powerhouse country on the fringes of Europe that has a powerful economic punch to it, an educated and versatile workforce, and positionally is of geographical importance. This small island country has diversified itself as global leader in agriculture, pharma and manufacturing, and also acts as a host country for a range of tech giants. The future is bright for this little island nation however one wonders, would it be better off as a standalone economy outside the Euro Area, like Norway and Switzerland. For now it remains one of the 20 countries in the Euro Currency Area and of vital importance to the EU. One could describe Ireland as being at the helm of Eurozone's current trajectory, and with that, there is great risk and great promise. A nation in the balance. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how Ireland's stock market has performed. I hope its helpful. PUKA
EURONEXT:ISEQLong
by PukaCharts
4
USD/CAD:USD Faces Pressure Amid Eurozone Political UncertaintyEid Mubarak to all our Muslim brothers and sisters, Permit me to do a detailed commentary of economic event on EUR, CAD, and USD. Eurozone Political Instability Impacting the Euro The Euro remains under significant pressure, primarily due to escalating fears of a financial crisis in France. Political turmoil and economic instability in the Eurozone, particularly in one of its key economies, have shaken investor confidence. This instability has led to a weaker Euro as investors seek safer assets, impacting currency markets globally. Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Positive Economic Data The Canadian Dollar, commonly referred to as the Loonie, saw a notable increase in value on Friday. This upward movement was driven by positive economic data from Canada, which reported a 1.1% rise in factory sales. The stronger-than-expected performance in the manufacturing sector has boosted investor confidence in the Canadian economy, thereby strengthening the Loonie. Federal Reserve's Policy and Its Effects on USD The Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting introduced a slightly hawkish tone, which initially led to a rise in expectations of interest rate cuts. However, following the meeting, these expectations have diminished. The Fed’s stance suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, which has implications for the USD's strength. The reduced likelihood of significant rate cuts has provided some support to the US Dollar. USD/CAD Outlook and Market Sentiment Looking at the USD/CAD outlook for Monday, bearish momentum is evident as the US Dollar experiences a decline. This drop is largely attributed to the ongoing political uncertainty in the Eurozone, which has ripple effects across global financial markets. Despite the Fed’s hawkish hints, the prevailing sentiment reflects a cautious approach among investors, influenced by geopolitical and economic concerns. In summary, while the US Dollar initially climbed due to Eurozone instability, the overall outlook for USD/CAD appears bearish. The interplay between Eurozone political issues, positive Canadian economic data, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance will continue to shape market dynamics in the near term. Cheers and happy trading!
Short
by Samuel124
EUR/USD Short Opportunity: Riding Downside MomentumThe EUR/USD pair is poised for a potential downside move as key technical and fundamental factors align. Here's my analysis: Target Projection: With a clear break of 1.06, the EUR/USD could aim to take out the previous year's low, currently at 1.0450, and head straight for the level of 1.0377. This breakdown suggests that sellers are gaining control and may drive the pair lower. This downside target aligns with the bearish momentum and could be achieved by the end of May or leading into June. Due to possible Eurozone interest rate cuts. Short Positions: I've initiated short positions at 1.0802 and 1.0720 , anticipating the downward move. These positions provide an opportunity to capitalize on the expected decline in the EUR/USD pair. Rising US Bond Yields: The forecasted rapid increase in US bond yields adds further pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Higher yields attract capital flows into the US dollar, strengthening it against other currencies, including the euro. Potential Interest Rate Hikes: Concerns over rising inflation data could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes later in the year. Such actions would likely support the US dollar and weigh on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Entry: Consider adding to short positions on any retracements towards resistance levels, but maintain a focus on the downside bias. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above the recent swing high, 1.0813, or a key resistance level to manage risk effectively. Take Profit: Target the projected downside level of 1.0377, but consider adjusting the target based on evolving market conditions and price action.
Short
by mackmackeyy
Eurozone Core & Headline CPI overviewEUROZONE CPI Eurozone Headline and Core CPI for October both came in as expected (decrease) Eurozone Headline CPI: MoM – Actual 0.1% / Exp. 0.1% / Prev. 0.3% YoY – Actual 2.9% / Exp. 2.9% / Prev. 4.3% (purple on chart) Eurozone Core CPI: MoM – Actual 0.2% / Exp. 0.2% / Prev. 0.2% YoY – Actual 4.2% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.5% (blue on chart) The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 0 – 2% from 2015 – 2020 below.
ECONOMICS:EUCIR
by PukaCharts
1
Macro Monday 39 (Part B) - Predictive Power (EU ZEW Vs EU ESI)Macro Monday 39 (Part B) This chart is a summary of the past two weeks of work in Macro Mondays on the EU Sentiment The Chart illustrates the forward looking Euro Area ZEW Sentiment Index (red line) and the current sentiment outlook via the Euro Area Economic Sentiment Index (the "ESI", the blue line). In the chart I have used thick orange lines to illustrate when the forward looking ZEW Index moved negative ahead of the ESI Index. I have used thick green lines to inform of us of when the ZEW Index moved into optimism ahead of the ESI Index. The Chart demonstrates that the ZEW Index is actually a moderately decent forward looking indicator. Hats off to those 350 economists that complete the surveys in the ZEW Index. Whilst it has been great at providing some leads, the ZEW Index is not always accurate and does not always offer the correct lead direction however historically we can see that it certainly has had predictive power at certain junctures and thus its a useful data set to monitor for EU sentiment. ▫️ At present the forward looking ZEW Index has moved into optimism whilst the current outlook via the ESI is in pessimism. ▫️ If the ZEW Index gets above the 38-42 level, it would really help concrete the sentiment shift to optimism. This is not disregarding the fact we are firmly in positive forward looking sentiment territory already. Historically there have been many rejections lower from this 38 -42 level, thus getting above it would be a real conclusive move. Furthermore, the ESI is at 95.4, if the above were to occur with a move above 38 - 42 on the ZEW Index and the ESI was to move above 100 into positive territory, we could really start to lean firmly positive for the present and into the future. The beauty of this chart is that you can go onto my TradingView Page and press update, and the chart will update you with both metrics, informing you at a glance with how these metrics are performing collectively with a nice visual guide. Thanks again for coming along and I hope this chart helps you in your current and future understandings of EU Economic Sentiment, which is an important global economic lead. Bottom line is, economic sentiment appears to be leaning optimistic for the immediate future, however we await more readings for a conclusive trend direction. PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUESI
by PukaCharts
Rate-cut discussions are prematureThe ECB left its monetary policy unchanged, in line with expectations. The information available since the December meeting has largely confirmed the central bank’s assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook, leaving the Governing Council (GC) in a wait-and-see mode. ECB President Lagarde confirmed her Davos comments, hence indicating that she still expects the first rate cut to come in summer, but the market is not convinced, and dovish remarks here and there actually fueled meaningful rate-cut expectations already for the April meeting. While the ECB’s GDP and CPI forecasts will likely be revised down in March, the GC seems absolutely determined to play it safe on inflation, and this will continue as long as the labor market holds up. I still expect the first rate cut in June, followed by a gradual reduction at a pace of 25bp per quarter towards a broadly neutral level of 2%. Despite ongoing weakness in indicators of economic activity, the GC appears relatively relaxed about the growth outlook, largely thanks to ongoing resilience in the labor market. The statement mentions signs of recovery in some leading indicators, despite most of them still pointing to broad stagnation in GDP. Did Ms. Lagarde want to signal that the GC is warming up to the idea of an “early” start to the easing cycle? Probably not. Her rhetoric was mainly aimed at strengthening the message that the ECB is data-dependent, as opposed to calendar-driven.
TVC:EXYLong
by Elite_Forex
Macro Monday 27 - Headwinds in Europe but Spain thrivingMacro Monday 27 Headwinds for Europe but Spain demonstrating relative strength As it is New Years Eve I wanted to do an early release for tomorrow. This week we are taking a look at another major market Index in Europe and we will also look at one smaller market within this geographical location, Spain, due to its strong chart set up and promising economic data released in December 2023. EURO STOXX 50 Index - $SE5E The EURO STOXX 50 index is known as Eurozone’s leading blue-chip index and is designed to represent the 50 largest and most liquid companies in the eurozone. It was designed by STOXX, an index provider owned by Deutsche Börse Group (which operates one of the world's largest stock exchanges by market capitalization – the Frankfurt Stock Exchange). STOXX have an array of interesting index’s that we might review over coming weeks. The Euro STOXX index is composed of 50 stocks from 11 countries in the Eurozone. These are the top fifty largest and most liquid stocks. The index futures and options on the EURO STOXX 50, traded on Eurex, are among the most liquid products in Europe and the world. The Top Three Holdings (representing 20% of overall EURO STOXX 50 index): 1. ASML Holding NV NASDAQ:ASML : Microelectronics solutions provider that offers semiconductor manufacturing equipment. 2. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton OTC:LVMHF : World Leader in luxury brands such as Tiffany & Co, Christian Dior, Marc Jacobs, TAG Heuer, and Bulgari. 3. TotalEnergies SE EURONEXT:TTE : This is a global multi-energy company that produces and markets energies: oil and biofuels, natural gas and green gases, renewables and electricity. The company has 100,000 employees and is active in 130 countries. Interestingly the EURO STOXX 50 Index typically represents approximately 60% weighting of the STOXX Europe 600 Index, which is derived from the STOXX Europe Total Market Index LSE:TMI which is a subset of the STOXX Global 1800 Index. Talk about a game of Russian dolls. We will look at these other charts at another time, for now we are focused on the arrow head of the commercial European markets, the Top 50 companies in the EURO STOXX 50. The EURO STOXX 50 Index can provide a great overview on how the largest and most liquid companies in Europe are performing in aggregate, thus giving us insight into the European commercial markets direction and the European economy. So lets take a look at the chart. The Chart Whilst the chart is in a general uptrend since 2009 with successive higher lows, we appear to have made a long term pennant breakout however there are a number of concerns that jump out at me. ▫️ We are approaching the July 2007 market highs and if surpassed we will then have another overhead resistance from the March 2000 All Time Market highs. These are significant resistance levels. ▫️ We could be forming a rising pennant at present so even if we breach the July 2007 highs, we have the intermittent pennant ceiling to also contend with. Whilst these are genuine concerns, at present we are trending upwards with the 21 month SMA sloping upwards. What to watch for? Bear Perspective: ▫️ A breach of the 21 month moving average followed by, ▫️ A breach of the rising wedge lower boundary. NOT GOOD Bull Perspective: ▫️ We break above the July 2007 Top and make support on it eventually finding additional support from the 21 monthly moving average as time moves on. Would I trade this chart? No! However, it is an exceptionally interesting chart that offers valuable perspective on the major components within the European commercial markets. It provides us with an interesting perspective on the European Economy and can help us understand the broader opportunity or risks within the market. IBEX 35 Index - BME:IBC We are now going to have a look at the top 35 stocks in the Spanish stock market as this market has proven to be an outlier in 2023. The IBEX 35 Index is made up of the 35 most liquid stocks traded on the Spanish stock market. Between 2000 and 2007, this index outperformed many of its Western peers, driven by relatively strong domestic economic growth which particularly helped construction and real estate stocks. In these bull markets Spain proved to have more volatility to the upside, however that obviously comes with the potential opposite downside volatility also. In any event, we can take advantage of one of Europe’s fast paced markets and consider individual stocks within it. Spain as an outlier I have focused in on Spain as the chart looked more promising than the markets in other European countries, thereafter I found some economic data and narratives that support this potentially strong chart set up. ▫️ Spain is the 4th largest economy of the EU - save for that of the United Kingdom - and the 14th largest in the world. ▫️ Spain is the 13th largest recipient of foreign investments in the world. More than 14,600 foreign firms have set up their business in Spain and this appears to be a continuing trend. ▫️ As recently as the 18th December it was announced that Spanish exports exceeded €320 billion from January to October 2023, an all-time high, according to government statistics. ▫️ Industries leading this boom were the automobile, capital goods and food, beverage, and tobacco sectors. ▫️ The Spanish state also confirmed that the nation has a current account surplus of 3% of GDP, the best figure recorded since 2018. ▫️ Geographically, 61.6% of total Spanish exports were sent to the European Union in October 2023, while exports to non-EU countries accounted for 38.4% of the total, demonstrating Spain’s global reach is versatile and not restricted to Europe. Finally a quote from the Spain's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business "The Spanish economy ……in the complex international context, has maintained its constant weight in international trade in goods and increased its share of the European market in recent years,". IBEX 35 Index Top 3 Holdings: 1. Iberdola BME:IBE (14%) – A clean energy utility company with 40,000 employees. It constructs, operates and manages power generation plants, transmission and distribution facilities and other assets. The company produces electricity using conventional and renewable energy source 2. Inditex BME:ITX (14%) – One of the worlds largest distribution groups for the likes of ZARA, PULL&BEAR, MASSIMO DUTTI and BERSHKA. These brands are more aligned with mid-range affordability for the middle class. 3. Santander BME:SAN (11%) – The 28th largest bank I the world with 200,000 employees, 166 million customers and 1.7 Trillion in total assets (all global figures). The top three holdings making up almost 40% of the IBEX 35 weighting are actually a nice blend of Energy, Staples and Finance. This adds to my preference to actually invest in the IBEX 35 Index as it appears to be a nicely diversified index from a review of the major holdings. The Chart A long term pennant has made a defined breakout of the range and found support with a bounce off the 21 month moving average. Historically you can see the relevance of the 21 month moving average, once lost after the 2000 and 2007 top it was a clear indication to exit the market. Conversely, once price is established above the 21 month moving average you can see that you typically have good odds of upward momentum. The advantage of watching an index like this, outside of a liquid trade, is that it gives us an indication that the Spanish market has relative strength at present and companies within the index, and potentially outside it, may offer a greater probability of returns than other markets in the Eurozone. I guess being a smaller well diversified and more nimble market in the sunny Mediterranean has its benefits. I highly recommend you review last weeks Macro Monday which looked at how positive four large Global Index’s are looking at present. These were the Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF - AMEX:VT , iShares Global Energy ETF - AMEX:IXC , Global X FinTech ETF - NASDAQ:FINX and the Global X Blockchain ETF - NASDAQ:BKCH If you enjoy my coverage of these indices or would like me to cover some others, please let me know in the comments, Happy New Year Folks, sláinte 🥂 PUKA
TVC:SX5E
by PukaCharts
EURAUD, Gigantic ASCENDING-WEDGE, BEARISH Continuation SETUP!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about EURAUD on several perspectives. The Eurozone inflationary pressures increased massively within the recent times determining a huge bearish edge against the AUD zone, especially as inflation in the Eurozone is not yet tackled by continued higher rate hikes with which the ECB, European Central Bank is trying to decrease inflation. Compared to the AUD zone this means that the EUR is much more bearishly inclined against the AUD and in this case it is also important on how the actual technical price action is confirming such a bearish inclination. In my chart I am pointing out that the EURAUD is now setting up a gigantic ascending-wedge-formation with several resistances within the structures. The EURAUD is now approaching the major 50% Fibonacci-resistance within the 1.7 which is simultaneously determining the resistance by the upper boundary of the gigantic wedge formation and forming a coherent resistance-cluster within this level. Once EURAUD shows up with a major pullback off this zone this means that the possibility for an completion of the wedge-formation increases astronomically and a completion of it will point to the bearish target-zones to be reached. Especially if the massive interest rate hikes within the Eurozone implemented by the ECB should not effectively decrease the inflation rate of the EUR this will put a lot of bearishness on the Euro and therefore also on EURAUD and with such a dynamic it is going to accelerate the bearish momentum. Once the whole ascending-wedge-formation has been finally completed the target-zones will be active and once the final target-zone has been reached the bearish momentum should be assessed again because with further developments to the downside this could actually lead to a major bearish wave-count extension for EURAUD and move to lower levels. In any case it will be a highly important development to consider here. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
by VincePrince
22