EURUSD breaks structure – Is this the start of a deeper fall?Hello everyone, what do you think about EURUSD?
From a technical perspective, after a steady uptrend that lasted from early June, EURUSD has officially broken out of its ascending channel – marking a significant turning point in the market trend. The formation of a lower high suggests weakening bullish momentum, and the break of the trendline confirms a clear shift in market structure.
Notably, the price has also fallen below both the EMA34 and EMA89 – a common signal indicating that bearish momentum is starting to dominate. The combination of these signals strengthens the view that selling pressure may continue to increase in the coming sessions.
Currently, price is hovering around a key support zone near 1.16000. While this may serve as temporary support, a breakdown below this area could open the path toward the next target at 1.14525 – which aligns with a previous major low.
What do you think? Share your opinion in the comments!
EURUSD-2
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1537
1st Support: 1.1456
1st Resistance: 1.1655
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish reversal?EUR/USD has bounced off the support level, which serves as a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take-profit target.
Entry: 1.1534
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Stop loss: 1.1455
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing low support.
Take profit: 1.1655
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSD Will the 1D MA50 hold?The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the April 21 2025 High. The price is right now on a strong pull-back and is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 12.
As long as the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50, it will be a buy signal, targeting 1.19250 (a standard +3.20% rise).
If the candle closes below the 1D MA50, the buy will be invalidated and we will switch to a sell, targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 1.14100.
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Major U.S. News Ahead—Will EURUSD Pivot?Good morning, my friends 👋
Here’s my EURUSD market analysis 📉
Currently, the pair is in a downtrend. I expect this downward move to end around 1.14899 or 1.14536, where a potential buying opportunity may emerge. I personally plan to enter a buy position once price reaches those zones 💼
Also, keep an eye on major U.S. economic reports being released today—they could trigger increased volatility 🔔
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EURUSD Breakdown Bearish Trend Continues or Demand Zone Reversal🔍 Chart Breakdown: EUR/USD (30-min TF)
Trend Overview:
Previous Trend: Bullish channel structure (highlighted in blue).
Current Momentum: Strong bearish breakdown following a clear range phase.
The chart shifted from consolidation → breakdown → aggressive bearish continuation.
🧱 Key Technical Highlights:
1. Bearish Breakout:
Price broke below the ascending trendline and exited the ranging box, confirming a bearish shift.
Multiple Breakdown Retests (highlighted with red arrows) confirming structure failures and validating resistance zones.
2. Range Zone (Distribution Phase):
Price moved sideways within the green rectangle (“RANGE”), indicating accumulation/distribution before the selloff.
The breakdown from this range confirmed bearish momentum.
3. Demand Zone Test (Now in Play):
Price is approaching/hovering around a demand zone (green box) marked as a critical support.
Buyers may react here, offering two key scenarios:
Bounce back to retest resistance around 1.1600 (highlighted).
Breakdown below demand, leading to further decline toward next major support zones (1.15354 and 1.15040).
4. Price Reaction Zones:
🔴 Resistance zones are clearly marked where breakdown retests occurred.
🟢 Demand zone with bounce-or-break logic provides directional bias.
🧭 Potential Scenarios (Marked on Chart):
✅ Bullish Case:
If demand zone holds, expect:
A corrective rally toward 1.1600–1.1620.
Watch for rejection signals here (could be ideal for re-entering shorts).
❌ Bearish Case:
If breakdown below green demand zone occurs, targets:
1.1535 (local structure support)
1.1504 (next confluence level; possible long-term bounce area)
📈 Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is well below the cloud, confirming bearish control.
Structure: Lower highs & lower lows = confirmed bearish trend.
EURUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our buy entry at 1.15782, which is a swing low support.
Our take profit will be at 1.1629, which is a pullback resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1547, below the swing low support.
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DeGRAM | EURUSD breakout📊 Technical Analysis
● Two successive rejections at the upper-channel/long-term trend-cap (red arrows) printed bearish engulfings; price has slipped back under 1.1687 minor support, breaking the July micro up-trend.
● Momentum now points to the channel mid-line ≈1.1650; clearing it exposes the lower rail / May pivot 1.1594, in line with the projected swing depth.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Hot US Q2-GDP and an upside surprise in core-PCE lifted 2-yr Treasury yields, reviving dollar demand, while ECB sources signalled no urgency to hike further after soft July PMIs.
✨ Summary
Short 1.1680-1.1700; hold below 1.1687 targets 1.1650 ▶ 1.1595. Invalidate on a 4 h close above 1.1750.
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Bullish reversal off pullback support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has bounced off the pivot, which is a pullback support, and could rise to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.1537
1st Support: 1.1456
1st Resistance: 1.1659
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
The euro extends sharp losses following the US-EU tariff deal
The euro weakened sharply against the dollar amid views that the US-EU tariff deal favors the US. European leaders voiced mixed reactions. Germany’s Chancellor Merz welcomed the agreement as a safeguard against economic damage, while Hungary’s PM Orbán criticized it as a one-sided win for the US. Meanwhile, the IMF raised its eurozone growth forecast from 0.8% to 1.0% in its July outlook, citing the lower-than-expected tariff levels as supportive of the region’s economy.
EURUSD broke below the ascending trendline and briefly tested the support at 1.1520. EMA21 has death-crossed EMA78, indicating the potential extension of bearish momentum.
If EURUSD fails to hold above the support at 1.1520, the price could decline further toward 1.1450. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches above the resistance at 1.1590, the price may gain upward momentum toward 1.1640.
EURUSD - STRONGEST DECLINE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHSEURUSD - STRONGEST DECLINE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS
EURUSD has lost 1.32% yesterday on the U.S. - E.U. trade deal. Experts suggest that the relief felt by the United States and the European Union upon reaching a trade agreement has been overshadowed by worries about the potential economic harm caused by a 15% tariff on EU imports. The dollar has recently experienced a positive trend, and this trend could continue if U.S. economic data, including Friday's employment figures, indicates a strong economy. The investors who had previously made substantial bets on the euro's appreciation are now reversing their positions, causing the euro to weaken.
Technically, the asset broke down the local trendline and is currently trying to rebound from the local support level of 1.15800. RSI tells us that the asset is oversold, so the most possible outcome here is the EURUSD to rebound from current level, retest former trendline and continues downwards movement.
SILVER Is About to Collapse? Watch This Critical Supply Zone!Price recently tapped a high near 39.20 before sharply rejecting from the 38.80–39.20 supply zone, confirming strong selling pressure. The current structure shows:
- Supply zone tested and rejected
- Likely return to the previous demand zone (36.50–36.00)
- RSI is turning down, confirming loss of momentum
A pullback toward 38.30–38.50, followed by a bearish continuation toward the 36.50 area, which acts as a key structural and institutional support.
🗓️ Seasonality
Historically, July is bullish for silver:
Last 5Y average: +0.89%
Last 2Y average: +2.18%
However, August–September are bearish months:
August: mildly positive, but weak
September: consistently negative across all time frames (-0.86% to -1.10%)
This increases the probability of a downward move starting in early August, in line with current price action rejection.
🪙 Commitment of Traders (COT) – July 22
Non-Commercials (speculators):
Longs: +656
Shorts: -516
Commercials (hedging):
Longs: +1,337
Shorts: +916
➡️ Commercials are increasing both long and short exposure, while non-commercials remain net long — a sign of moderate optimism.
However, long positioning is slowing down compared to previous weeks. A potential exhaustion in bullish momentum is forming.
📉 Sentiment
52% short vs 48% long
Volume: more lots on the short side (492 vs 454)
Sentiment remains neutral to slightly contrarian bullish, but not extreme. This may allow for a fake breakout before a deeper move down.
🧩 Operational Summary
Main bias: Bearish short to mid-term (starting August), supported by:
- Technical rejection at supply
- Negative seasonal tendencies ahead
- RSI showing momentum loss
- COT showing stabilization, not accumulation
XAU/USD | Gold Holding Strong – Watching for Next Bullish Move!By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that yesterday, as expected, when the price dropped to around $3357, it faced strong buying pressure and rallied up to $3377. After that, it corrected again, pulling back to $3338 so far, and is currently trading around $3341. If gold manages to hold above $3337, we can expect another bullish move, with potential targets at $3347, $3354, $3364, and $3374.
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EURUSD Analysis : Rejection at Demand – Institutional Buy Setup🔍 Technical Storyline – What the Chart Tells Us:
🔸 1. Previous Bearish Structure – Descending Channel:
Price has been moving within a well-respected bearish channel, signifying structured sell-side liquidity control.
This channel served as a trap zone, where retail sellers were induced while institutions accumulated buy-side positions below the range.
The controlled movement inside the channel ended with a breakout to the upside, signaling a disruption in bearish control.
🔸 2. QFL Zone Formation – Manipulation & Liquidity Grab:
QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) is evident in two phases here:
The first QFL acts as a reaction point where the market dropped to test demand and rallied aggressively.
The second QFL near the highs shows price swept previous liquidity before dumping, hinting at institutional profit-taking and possible redistribution into discount areas.
🔸 3. Central Reversal Zone (CRZ):
Price reversed sharply from this CRZ, which acted as a major supply level. The CRZ marks the top of the manipulation range.
This was a liquidity sweep targeting trapped long positions that entered too late at the highs.
🔸 4. Demand Revisit + Positive Rejection Pattern (Current Phase):
Price has now reached the MMC-validated demand zone, which previously launched a strong bullish move.
The long lower wick in the latest candle shows buyer absorption, suggesting early signs of a Positive Reversal Pattern.
This area is marked with high probability for bullish continuation, as it aligns with both technical support and smart money logic.
💡 Trading Plan & Market Mindset:
🔸 📈 Bullish Scenario (High-Probability Play):
Wait for bullish confirmation, such as:
Bullish engulfing on 1H/4H
Break of minor intraday structure (e.g., break of internal LH)
Strong volume surge from the zone
Entry zone: Within the demand block – 1.15500 to 1.15750
Stop-loss: Just below the demand zone (1.15250)
Target 1 (TP1): 1.16500 – minor intraday resistance
Target 2 (TP2): 1.17500–1.18000 – retest of QFL high and Central Reversal Zone
🔸 ❌ Bearish Invalidator:
A 4H candle close below 1.15250 would break the demand zone structure.
Invalidation of MMC reversal – move toward deeper liquidity (1.14500–1.14800)
🧠 Trader’s Psychology & Institutional Mindset:
Institutions often induce price spikes to trap both buyers and sellers.
This entire structure reflects classic accumulation → manipulation → distribution → reaccumulation.
The retest of the original demand zone allows institutions to re-enter at discount before pushing price back toward the highs.
“In MMC, patterns are not just shapes – they are footprints of institutional intent.”
EURUSD at Make-or-Break Zone: Time to Short?EURUSD – Key Data Out Today, Short Setup Confirmed?
Today, several important economic indexes were released for both the Euro(EUR) and the Dollar(USD) . Let’s break them down in a simple way:
Eurozone PMI Data: Mixed to Weak
France:
Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 (slightly lower than forecast)
Services PMI : 49.7 (flat, but below 50 = contraction)
Germany:
Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 (weaker than expected)
Services PMI : 50.1(slightly expansionary)
Eurozone Overall:
Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (still below 50)
Services PMI : 51.2 (slightly stronger than forecast)
ECB left the Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 2.15% , which was widely expected.
U.S. Data( TVC:DXY ): Strong and Surprising
Unemployment Claims: 217K (better than expected 227K)
Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (below forecast of 52.7 – a negative surprise)
Services PMI: 55.2 (well above forecast and previous – bullish for USD)
Interpretation :
The Eurozone's growth remains sluggish, especially in France and Germany.
Despite a drop in U.S. manufacturing, the services sector remains strong, and unemployment data confirms labor market resilience.
This mixed picture slightly tilts the balance in favor of the U.S. dollar, especially as the ECB remains on hold while the Fed may still consider being restrictive.
Bias: Short EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD )
Fundamentals support a Short position in EURUSD, in line with the current technical setup.
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Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour time frame to find the best Short position .
EURUSD is currently trading in an Ascending Channel and at a Heavy Resistance zone($1.1845-$1.1602) .
Also, in terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that EURUSD is completing a microwave 5 of the main wave 5 .
One of the most important supports ahead for EURUSD could be the 100_SMA(4-hour TF) .
If the currently 4-hour candlestick forms a Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern , it is a better sign for EURUSD to fall .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect EURUSD to decline to at least $1.169 AFTER breaking the lower line of the ascending channel .
Second Target: Support zone($1.1642-$1.158) and Monthly Pivot Point.
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $1.1850
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Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
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EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W31 | D29 | Y25📊 EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W31 | D29 | Y25
Daily Forecast 🔍📅
Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈
Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias.
This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us.
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Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
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Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
FX:EURUSD
EURUSD corrective pullback support at 1.1526The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 1.1526 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 1.1526 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
1.1714 – initial resistance
1.1810 – psychological and structural level
1.1885 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1526 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
1.1470 – minor support
1.1400 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1526. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EUR/USD | Correction Near Key Demand – Watching for Rebound!By analyzing the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after the last analysis, the price started a correction and is currently trading around 1.17150. I expect that once it enters the 1.16780–1.17100 zone, we could see a rebound from this key demand area. If the price holds above this zone, the next bullish targets will be 1.17370 as the first target and 1.17730 as the second.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EURUSD Supply Rejection – Bearish Move ExpectedOn the 1-hour chart, EURUSD tapped into the 4hr Supply + OB zone 🟧 and failed to hold above previous structure.
- BoS (Break of Structure) shows weakness at highs
- ChoCh (Change of Character) confirms bearish shift
- Price rejected from 0.236 Fib level (1.17400) and is moving lower
Plan:
- Expecting price to move toward 1.16200 (≈ 120 pips from current level) 🎯
- Bearish momentum remains valid as long as price stays below supply zone
- Confirmation candles & retests strengthen short bias
Reasoning:
- Supply zone rejection + failed breakout
- Clear structure shift (ChoCh) toward lower lows
- Fib retracement confluence (0.5 – 0.618 zone) aligning with sell pressure
(Not financial advice – only a personal observation)
Euro Drops Hard — Is a 100-Pips Slide Toward 1.1500 Next?Euro’s current situation doesn’t look great — we’re clearly seeing strong selling pressure across the board.
Price has now reached the block zones near 1.1600, and I want to break down what this area means to me.
The lower pivot of the 1.1600 zone was created after the 50% level of the previous bullish leg was consumed — which is typical in many bullish trends. Based on that, we expected a move toward 1.1800 to break the structure and continue the uptrend.
However, the recent bullish move lacked strength, which became quite clear during the last upward leg. And now, after that weak rally, we’re witnessing a sharp and aggressive selloff.
This reaction weakens the 1.1600 block in my eyes — and I’m now watching 1.1500 as the more probable target. It’s a major price level and also aligns with a bank-level midline zone.
In my view, it’s still too early to buy. I’d want to see price range and confirm before looking for longs.
That said, this area could be a good place to partially exit short positions and lock in some profits.
🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion!!!