EURUSD: Buyers Like the New Trade Deals With The US!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
EURUSD
Buyers reacting positively to the announcements of trade deals with the US.
Longs are the play until we see a bearish break of significant structure.
FOMC and NFP looming, so be careful the markets don't reverse on your trades!
Wait patiently for buy setups.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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EURUSD-2
Bullish bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take-profit.
Entry: 1.1693
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1656
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1806
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
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SMT in EU and GU + Targeting Liquidity voidI did not expect the GBPUSD to fall with all this force, but the EURUSD’s refusal to fall with it all these points indicates the strength of the current Low from which it rebounded, and it is expected that this bottom will hold
It is clear that GBPUSD was looking for more liquidity and that is why it dropped all these points. With this drop, it created a liquidity void that allowed it to rise and take all these pips back.
HelenP. I Euro can reach resistance zone and then dropHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart, we can observe a mature uptrend that has been supported by a major ascending trend line for an extended period. However, the momentum of this trend appears to be waning, as evidenced by the price's recent failure to establish new highs. The asset is currently trading below the critical resistance zone of 1.1770 - 1.1800, an area that has proven to be a significant barrier for buyers. My analysis for a short position is based on the condition of a final retest of this resistance zone. I believe the price will make another attempt to rally into this area, and a forceful rejection from this zone would serve as the confirmation that sellers are taking definitive control of the market. Such a rejection would likely initiate a strong downward impulse with sufficient momentum to break the long-standing ascending trend line, a pivotal event that would shift the market structure. Therefore, the primary goal for this bearish scenario is set at the 1.1600 level, a logical target for the price to reach after such a significant structural break. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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Euraud daily timeframe
"Hello friends, focusing on EUR/AUD on the daily time frame, the price is currently in a bullish trend and appears to have completed its pullback to a critical level on the daily chart. In the 4-hour timeframe, there are indications of upward momentum.
After observing the price behavior this week, I believe that higher prices are more likely. However, it is important to note that if the price closes below the 1.7100 level on the 4-hour chart, this analysis may prove incorrect."
If you have any more details to add or need further assistance, please let me know!
EURUSD: FOMC, PCE, NFP, JOLTs - busy week guaranteedThe ECB meeting was one of the major events during the previous week, when it comes to macro data. As it was widely expected, the ECB left rates unchanged, amid uncertainties related to trade tariffs with the U.S.. The ECB maintains its previous macro outlook, viewing the Euro Zone economy as resilient but facing downside risks. President Lagarde highlighted global trade tensions, geopolitical instability and negative shifts in market sentiment as key risks to further growth. At the same time, Lagarde dismissed concerns about the stronger euro, reiterating that the ECB does not target the exchange rate directly. With the inflation level of 2% and deposit rate of 2%, the ECB is in the position to take a wait-and-see stance on further rate cuts, although some analysts are mentioning the possibility of another 25bps cut in September.
Other macro data for the Euro Zone and Germany include the HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for July, which stood at 49,8 for the Euro Zone and 49,2 for Germany. Both indicators were standing in line with market expectations. The Ifo business Climate in Germany in July reached 88,6, in line with market forecast.
The previous week was relatively weak when it comes to currently important macro data for the U.S. economy. Posted data include Existing Home Sales in June, which reached 3,93M and were a bit lower from forecasted 4,0M. The indicator dropped by 2,7% compared to the previous month. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash for July reached 49,5 a bit lower from market forecast of 52,6. At the same time the S&P Global Services PMI flash for July beat market expectation with the level of 55,2. The durable Goods Orders in June dropped by -9,3% compared to the previous month, which was a bit lower from -10,8% expected by the market.
The ECB meeting left its mark on the parity of eurusd currency pair during the previous week. The euro strengthened till the level of 1,1786, but eased as of the end of the week, closing it at 1,1742. The currency pair was testing the 1,17 support line on Friday's trading session. The RSI continues to move at levels above the 50 line, ending the week modestly below the level of 60. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a potential cross in the near term period.
The week ahead is an important one from the perspective of macro data. A bunch of currently closely watched data for the U.S. will be posted, including PCE, NFP, JOLTs, Unemployment rate in July. In addition to data, the FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, July 30th, where the Fed will decide on interest rates. Current market expectation is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at this meeting. However, the final decision is with the Fed, in which case, any surprises might significantly move the currency pair toward one side. Also, in case of surprises with any of the above mentioned macro data the market reaction could bring higher volatility. Precaution in trading with eurusd in the week ahead is highly advisable. As per current charts, there is a high probability that the currency pair will move to the downside to test the 1,17 support level for one more time. Levels around the 1,1650 might also be shortly tested. In case that the market decides for a higher ground, there is some probability for the level of 1,18, as the next resistance level to be tested shortly.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: GDP Growth Rate for Q2 for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in Germany in July, Inflation rate in Germany and the Euro Zone preliminary for July,
USD: JOLTs Job Openings in June, GDP Growth Rate for Q2, Pending Home Sales in June, the FOMC meeting and Fed interest rate decision will be held on Wednesday, July 30th, PCE Price Index for June will be posted on Thursday, July 31st, Non-farm Payrolls for July, Unemployment rate in July, ISM Manufacturing PMI in July, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for July.
EURUSD: Detailed Support Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest support & resistance analysis for EURUSD
for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GER40 in Motion: This Setup Speaks Volumes 🌅 Good morning, my friends,
I’ve put together a fresh GER40 analysis just for you. Even if the 1-hour timeframe shows some upward momentum, I fully expect the price to reach my target level of **24,050**.
I'm holding firm until that level is hit.
Every single like from you is a massive source of motivation for me to keep sharing analysis. Huge thanks to everyone supporting with a tap!
EUR/USD H4 DOWNWARD 🔄 Disrupted EUR/USD 4H Analysis
🟢 Current Context:
Price is currently at 1.17375, slightly below the resistance area (1.17400–1.17500).
Market shows a recent bullish impulse, followed by consolidation within the marked resistance zone.
Projection in the image suggests a double-top pattern forming at resistance, followed by a bearish reversal toward the target demand area (~1.15800–1.16000).
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⚠️ Disruption Points:
1️⃣ Failed Double Top Scenario
Disruption Hypothesis: Instead of forming a clean double top and reversing, price may break above the resistance zone at 1.17500.
Reasoning: Strong bullish momentum and recent higher highs indicate potential for bullish continuation, invalidating the bearish target.
Disrupted Path: Price could break out → retest the resistance as new support → continue toward 1.18000–1.18300 zone.
2️⃣ Mid-Range Liquidity Trap
The current range may act as a liquidity trap:
Smart money could push the price slightly below support (fake breakdown), attract sellers, then reverse sharply upwards.
This would trap retail sellers targeting the 1.15800 zone.
EUR/USD – The Cleanest Buy Setup EUR/USD – The Cleanest Buy Setup This Quarter (Wave E Targeting New Highs)
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📄 TradingView explanation
📊 EUR/USD 4H Chart Analysis
The pair has beautifully respected the corrective channel from Wave C to D and is now preparing for the final leg — Wave E.
🟦 Key Highlights:
🔹 Price bouncing off demand zone
🔹 Tight consolidation near mid-channel = accumulation
🔹 Next targets: 1.1900 / 1.2050
🔹 Bullish continuation expected after liquidity sweep
🎯 The cleanest and most technically sound buy opportunity this quarter — align your longs with the trend before the breakout happens.
💬 Let them call it a bubble — we call it precision and patience. 🧠💸
#ElliottWave #EURUSD #ForexSetups #SmartMoneyMoves
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Euro may reach resistance level, break it and continue to growHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
For an extended period, the price was dictated by a descending channel, with each rally attempt failing at its upper boundary.
The downward trend culminated in a test of the crucial support level at $1.1635, where sellers were unable to secure a foothold, signaling a potential momentum shift.
This shift was confirmed when buyers took control, launching an upward impulse that decisively breached the long-standing resistance of the channel's upper trendline.
After the breakout, the price established a new local support base above the former channel, solidifying the change in market structure.
The subsequent rally carried the asset's price to the significant horizontal resistance zone around $1.1755, where the upward advance has temporarily stalled.
I expect that after a brief consolidation, bullish pressure will resume, enabling the price to break the $1.1755 barrier and continue towards the $1.1820 target.
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EURUSD: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 1.17201 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 1.17348.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
EURUSD
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy EURUSD
Entry - 1.1724
Stop - 1.1714
Take - 1.1743
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EURUSD | Time For A Pullback?The week kicked off with strong impulsive moves to the upside, leaving no room for deeper correction. Then slowly from Wednesday, we started to see a decline in strength in the bullish run.
Now, with price edging toward the next swing low for a possible bearish change of character, is this a good way to ride the stream to the downside?
Keep your A-game on as we watch price unfold, and trade reactively to price movement.
Do not forget to guard your capitals with risk management.
Good luck traders. 👍
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See you on the next one. 🫡
EURUSD | Symmetrical Wedge Breakdown
TF: 15m |
🎯 Setup Insight:
The market doesn’t move in straight lines — it coils.
What you're seeing is an ABCDE corrective wedge, playing out its final phase.
Wave E completed, and liquidity is built right above.
We expect a trap in the purple premium zone (1.1740–1.1757) — then a drop toward 1.1695.
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🧠 Strategy:
Sell Zone: 1.17410 – 1.17574
Target: 1.16958
Invalidation Above: 1.17600
Wedge ✅
Liquidity ✅
Confluence ✅
Only one move left — the snap.
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🗝️ Notes:
The market may spike into the OB zone to trap late buyers before the real move unfolds.
The mini-diagram on the right explains it all: "Trap them high, exit them low.✓
EURUSD Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 1.173.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.184 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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BTC - Last Push: Consolidation, Manipulation & DistributionMarket Context
After a strong upward impulse, Bitcoin has entered a mid-term consolidation phase just below its all-time high. This kind of price action is typical as the market digests recent gains and larger participants prepare for the next move. These pauses in momentum often precede either trend continuation or a reversal — and the structure here suggests we might be witnessing the former, but not without a final shakeout.
Phase 1: Consolidation Around the All-Time High
The first phase is defined by a tight range just beneath the all-time high, where price moves sideways in a balanced struggle between buyers and sellers. This is often where retail participants become overly bullish, anticipating a breakout. However, the lack of a sustained move higher indicates that smart money may be waiting for better entries — or preparing to engineer liquidity to fuel the next move.
Phase 2: Manipulation Into the Fair Value Gap and Golden Pocket
Directly below the range lies a clean Fair Value Gap, with a Golden Pocket retracement nestled inside it. This zone represents a strong area of interest. A sharp move into this area would likely sweep late long positions and trigger stop-losses from range traders — a classic manipulation pattern. This phase serves two purposes: collect liquidity and offer favorable pricing for larger players looking to position themselves before expansion. Watch for signs of absorption or reversal as price enters this zone.
Phase 3: Expansion – The Last Push of the Bull Market?
Following the liquidity sweep and reaction from the Fair Value Gap and Golden Pocket zone, we could see a renewed expansion toward higher highs. This is the phase where volume returns, sentiment shifts, and price accelerates. If this plays out, it could mark the final leg of this bull cycle — potentially driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs with strength.
Execution Thoughts
If you're looking to participate, it's wise to wait for a confirmation signal on a lower timeframe — like the 5-minute or 15-minute chart — once price enters the Fair Value Gap and Golden Pocket zone. Watch for a strong bullish reaction, break of structure, or shift in order flow to signal that buyers are stepping back in.
Final Thoughts
Let the market come to your level and don’t chase moves without context. These three phases — consolidation, manipulation, and expansion — are timeless patterns seen across all markets. Stay patient, stay objective, and react with clarity.
If this breakdown helped you see the setup more clearly, a like would mean a lot — and I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments! Are you watching the same zone, or do you see something different?
EURUSD HOLDS BULLISH MOMENTUMEURUSD HOLDS BULLISH MOMENTUM📈
24 July I wrote about bearish divergence in EURUSD. Now we see that this resulted into decline towards sma200 on 30-m chart. Currently the price is rebounding from this moving average.
What is the sma200?
The sma200 is a technical indicator that calculates the average closing price of a forex pair or crypto over the past 200 trading periods. It’s used to identify long-term trends, smooth out short-term price fluctuations, and determine potential support or resistance levels.
There is high possibility that the price will continue its way towards local resistance of 1.18300.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 25, 2025 EURUSDThe euro remains under pressure as the bond yield gap is once again widening in favor of the dollar following comments from Fed Chair Powell about the need to “keep policy tight for longer” to counteract the inflationary effects of new US tariffs. Additional support for the dollar came from the increase in June retail sales and a decline in jobless claims, which confirms the resilience of the US economy and pushes expectations for the first rate cut toward the year-end.
From the European side, euro support is undermined by signs of slowing activity: the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany remains below its historical average, and preliminary July eurozone PMIs, despite some improvement, still indicate an uneven recovery of the real sector. Further pressure comes from ongoing uncertainty around EU–US trade talks; Washington is still discussing the possibility of 15% tariffs, which threatens the bloc’s export prospects and fuels demand for the safe-haven dollar.
With monetary policy divergence and tariff escalation risks persisting, the pair is likely to continue correcting toward 1.17. Investors are awaiting tomorrow’s US PCE data, which could reinforce expectations of the Fed maintaining a “hawkish” stance and cement the downward trend.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.17350, SL 1.17550, TP 1.16350