EURUSD H4 Chart Outlook for Shorter Term 26-30 May 25You are seeing EURUSD H4 Chart, Right EURUSD is standing in mid-term Bullish Trend with Bullish Channel
Kindly follow the Zones Accordingly and always place SL
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Eurusd-4
EURUSD Breaking Above Resistance Line; Wave 5 In PlayEURUSD moved nicely higher in April, into the 1.15–1.16 area, a resistance where pair slowed down at the end of wave 3, that put retracement in play. However, a pullback has been made in three waves, so its seen as temporary within the broader uptrend. We saw some deeper retracement down to 1,1, near the 38.2% Fib from where we can see some nice turn up, above the trendline resistance so it appears that bulls are in play for wave 5. Therefore, be aware of more upside afte some intraday dips. Support is at 1.1266 area.
GH
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will the Bears Strike Back from 1.14? 📍1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1405, inside an ascending channel and right within a supply zone (1.1370–1.1470), which already triggered a rejection on April 16. Price action currently shows hesitation, with three consecutive candles at the top of the channel and RSI divergence, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum after an overextension.
The bullish trendline from April remains intact and validated, but the upside is narrowing. Likely scenario: bullish exhaustion followed by a pullback towards 1.1270–1.1220, with a potential retest of both the trendline and the lower boundary of the channel.
📊2. COT REPORT (USD & EUR) – Updated to May 20
USD Index: Non-Commercials added +2,044 net longs, but also +1,975 new shorts. Open Interest rose by +2,207 → a more active market, but still mixed. Net exposure remains neutral to slightly bearish for the dollar.
EURO FX: Non-Commercials cut -3,587 longs and added +6,814 shorts, while Commercials increased longs by +16,796. Speculative funds are gradually shifting short on the Euro, while Commercials continue to hedge long.
→ Combined read: Large speculators are reducing their Euro exposure and staying cautious on the Dollar. Short-term pressure on EUR/USD remains bearish, though no macro reversal yet.
📉3. SENTIMENT & POSITIONING
Retail sentiment shows 71% of traders are short EUR/USD — a classically contrarian signal. However, price is now sitting in a liquidity cluster where smart money might exploit a final squeeze before a real reversal.
Market depth shows strong imbalance, with long orders stacked above current price — suggesting potential stop hunt already triggered or about to fade.
🧭4. SEASONALITY
Historically, May is a bearish month for EUR/USD: -0.0079 on 20-year average, and -0.0163 on 10-year average. Seasonality supports late May weakness and potential downside continuation into early June.
✅ TRADING OUTLOOK
📌 Primary Bias: short-term corrective bearish, waiting for clearer reversal signals.
📌 Key Reaction Zone: 1.1400–1.1470 → structural short area, already tested.
📌 Bearish Target: 1.1270 > 1.1210 (golden pocket + trendline confluence)
📌 Setup invalidation: daily close above 1.1470 with volume → possible extension to 1.1550/1.1580
📌 Macro support: Commercials remain long on the Euro → underlying structure still bullish, but too early to fade short-term bearish momentum.
1.15150 Resistance Looms Amid EU Economic WoesOn the daily timeframe, EURUSD continues climbing toward the strong resistance zone around 1.15150 after a solid rebound from the EMA 34. However, the current candlestick structure shows signs of slowing momentum as price approaches a historically significant top — a zone prone to short-term profit-taking.
The technical setup becomes even more relevant when viewed alongside macroeconomic developments: the U.S. has just announced an extension of its 50% tariff deadline on EU goods from June 1 to July 9, temporarily easing trade tensions. However, the European Commission has revised down its Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 from 1.3% to 0.9%, highlighting persistent structural weaknesses and economic risks in the region.
The likely scenario: EURUSD may face rejection at 1.15150, followed by a pullback toward the support area around 1.09610. This zone aligns with the EMA 34, EMA 89, and a previous accumulation range. If this support fails to hold, the medium-term trend could shift clearly to the downside.
EURUSD Trendline Breakout – Bullish Target Ahead
EURUSD has successfully broken out of a strong descending trendline, which was acting as dynamic resistance for weeks. The breakout is backed by strong bullish candles and clear higher lows forming.
After the breakout, the price also reclaimed a key horizontal support zone around 1.12573, turning it into a solid base for further upside.
🎯 Bullish Target (Expected):
First major bullish target at 1.13864 based on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the last swing move.
📌 Support: 1.12573
📌 Breakout Confirmation: Valid as long as price holds above the trendline and support.
📈 Outlook:
The momentum looks strong for further bullish continuation. If the price holds above the breakout zone, we expect a move toward 1.13864 in the coming sessions.
EUROUSD COT and Liquidity Analysis chart The EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a convincing upward momentum, which might suggest a sustained long opportunity. However, traders should exercise caution—this bullish move could be a classic trap. Despite the current strength, signs of exhaustion are beginning to appear in the price action and volume. The market may soon shift direction, and a downward correction or full reversal could be imminent. Now is not the time to chase the high—stay alert, as the fall could happen sooner than expected.
EURUSD (STOP LOSSES SUPPLY + CONFIRMATION ON LTF)1) On top we have MSS + 705 Fib level.
2) Now price grab ST from demand and we can wait for confirmation on LFT.
3) NON mitigate Demand zone is OB 1H, i think price come back because 0.5 is still valid.
Entry: confirmation on LTF in POI
Target: First problem zone is OB 4H
Have a profitable day and don't forget to subscribe for more updates!
If you like this idea drop a like, leave a comment.
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1429
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 1.1572
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.1267
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot, which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1690
1st Support: 1.1058
1st Resistance: 1.1910
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR USDHello Traders.
This is my analysis for EURUSD.
I am not a professional and I would be happy if you share your opinion in the comments.
EURUSDLooking for a gap-up this week.
It will be interesting really, a de-based USD competing China, and a secure EUR.
This is logical to me, if you reduce the value of your currency you can compete China for sure but if there is recession, reduced trades, then valuable EUR would also be logical. What a week to watch, shall we see a 20 year trend break on EUR this week or not?
Week of 5/25/25: EU AnalysisExtremely bullish last week leads to my bias being long this week until the weak daily structure is broken.
Thanks for coming, goodluck this week!
Major News:
PMI - Thursday
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important supports & resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1363
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.1282
My Stop Loss - 1.1405
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD – Testing Key Resistance, Signs of a Pullback EmergingEURUSD is gradually approaching the strong resistance zone around 1.142 – a level that has rejected price at least twice in the past. The recent bullish momentum is clear, but the current move is nearing a major barrier, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
If the price fails to break this zone and rejection signals appear, a drop back toward the support area around 1.125 is highly possible – this level aligns with the EMA 89 and recent swing lows. It will be a key area to watch where the market might “take a breath” before deciding the next direction.
The current strategy is to patiently observe price action at this resistance zone. If confirmation appears, this could offer an opportunity for short-term sell setups. However, if the price decisively breaks above 1.142, the bearish scenario would be invalidated.
done and dusted, EUR/USD goes, “Hold my beer , lets cheersEUR/USD: Smart Money Just Played a Masterclass
Price dipped below support — looked like a breakdown, right? Wrong.
Here’s the playbook they used:
Liquidity Grab: Took out sell stops sitting below key levels.
Bear Trap: Price snapped back up, leaving bears trapped and confused.
Order Block: Zoom in on the candles before the spike — Smart Money bought heavy there.
Bullish Continuation: With bears trapped and bags full, price is now free to climb.
The fake fall fuels the real rise. Classic Smart Money setup — watch this ride up.
