ECB Interest Rate Decision: What to Expect and How Could React📊 ECB Interest Rate Decision: What to Expect and How EURUSD Could React
This week’s spotlight is on the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision — a key market driver that could shape the near-term direction of the euro and broader European markets. Here's what to expect. 👇
🔔 Key Event to Watch
📅 ECB Interest Rate Decision
🕐 Date: July 24
⏰ Time: 12:15 p.m. UTC
📉 Forecast: Hold at 2.15%
📌 Economic Context
The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday, likely marking the end of its current easing cycle after eight consecutive cuts that brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022.
🔒 Main refinancing rate: 2.15%
💰 Deposit facility rate: 2.00%
Policymakers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach as they monitor the impact of persistent trade uncertaintyand potential U.S. tariffs on economic growth and inflation.
Adding to the cautious stance, inflation finally reached the ECB’s 2% target in June, and is now forecast to dip belowthat level later this year. This drop is expected to be sustained over the next 18 months, driven by:
A strong euro 💶
Falling energy prices 🛢️
Cheaper imports from China 🇨🇳
Markets are currently pricing in just one more rate cut by December, with around a 50% probability of that happening in September, before a possible tightening cycle resumes in late 2026.
📈 EURUSD Technical Outlook
EURUSD has been trading within a descending channel since early July. However, it recently rebounded from trendline support, backed by bullish RSI divergence. The pair is approaching a breakout above the 1-hour SMA200, signaling a potential continuation of the uptrend. 🔼
A minor pullback is possible before a stronger move
Bullish momentum may continue if resistance is cleared
🎯 Target range: 1.18250 – 1.18300
🧩 Summary
The ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged at 2.15%, adopting a cautious tone amid easing inflation and global trade risks. This outcome could support the euro, particularly if U.S. rate expectations soften.
With technical indicators aligning with fundamental stability, EURUSD may be setting up for a bullish continuationin the coming sessions. 📊💶
