EURUSD H1 10/12/2024 - SELL below 1.0520Multi-Timeframe Analysis
D1 (Daily Timeframe)
Trend Analysis:
Price is in a consolidation phase, hovering just below the Ichimoku Cloud, reflecting bearish dominance.
The 200 SMA is positioned far above current price levels, confirming a longer-term downtrend.
The Stochastic Oscillator is moving out of the overbought zone, suggesting potential bearish continuation.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0580–1.0600.
Support: 1.0520, 1.0490.
H4 (4-Hour Timeframe)
Trend Analysis:
Price has broken below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 50 SMA, signaling bearish pressure.
The RSI (44.3) and Stochastic (13.1) are both oversold, suggesting a short-term pullback might occur.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0550–1.0580 (previous support turned resistance).
Support: 1.0520, 1.0490.
H1 (Hourly Timeframe)
Trend Analysis:
Bearish momentum is dominant, with price making lower highs and lower lows.
The RSI (33.3) is oversold, but there’s no divergence yet.
The MACD histogram is slightly bearish, indicating weakening downside momentum.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0550.
Support: 1.0520, 1.0490.
M30 (30-Minute Timeframe)
Trend Analysis:
Price is consolidating near the 1.0520 support level with signs of potential exhaustion in the bearish move.
Stochastic and RSI are in oversold territory, indicating a potential bounce.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0540, 1.0550.
Support: 1.0520, 1.0490.
Correlated Instruments Analysis
US Dollar Index (DXY):
The DXY is in an uptrend, putting additional pressure on EUR/USD.
If DXY continues higher, it will suppress EUR/USD rallies.
EUR/GBP:
EUR/GBP is neutral to slightly bearish, confirming overall Euro weakness.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield:
Rising Treasury yields support a stronger USD, further increasing bearish bias on EUR/USD.
Trade scenario:
Bearish Continuation After Pullback (Preferred)
Rationale:
The breach of 1.0540 opens room for further downside toward 1.0520 and 1.0495.
A short-term pullback toward resistance (1.0540–1.0550) provides an optimal entry for selling.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0535–1.0540 (wait for a pullback to resistance).
Stop-Loss: 1.0560 (above recent highs).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0515 (near current support).
TP2: 1.0495 (next key support level).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Scenario B: Aggressive Breakout Trade
Rationale:
If price breaks decisively below 1.0520, the bearish momentum may accelerate further, targeting 1.0490–1.0480.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0515 (on a clean break below support).
Stop-Loss: 1.0535 (above broken support).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0495.
TP2: 1.0480.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
