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Ew_analysis

EURCAD's Price Action shows potential bullish moveGreetings Traders, It is a pleasure to reconnect with you following a brief break. Here is my EURCAD analysis. EURCAD ANALYSIS Taking a long-term view, it is apparent that the EURCAD has been experiencing an upward trend, as evidenced by its movement within an ascending channel. Notably, between April 17th and 26th, there was a substantial rally of approximately 500 pips, resulting in the attainment of the month's highest price (1.51099). However, after reaching the March high, a bearish harmonic reversal pattern (referred to as a crab) appeared, prompting significant selling pressure, which caused the pair to drop until May 1st. On May 4th, the pair experienced a rally to the 1.50974 region, creating a relative double top pattern, followed by a significant decline. Currently, a bullish reversal harmonic pattern (bullish bat) is formed, and it is anticipated that it will prompt a significant bullish pressure towards the supply zone at 1.50770. My short and medium term targets will be 1.48039 and 1.49274 respectively.
Long
by Samuel124
NZDJPY Analysis: Bearish Trend Detected with Wave PatternBased on my analysis using Elliot wave theory, it appears that the NZDJPY is displaying a strong bearish trend. The wave patterns that I have observed across various timeframes suggest that the market is likely to experience a downward movement. Specifically, when examining the H1 chart on both intermediate and minor degrees, it appears that wave 3 (down) of a descending impulse is currently in progress. According to my projections, the completion of wave 3 is expected to occur at the 77.88 price region on the intermediate degree . On the minor degree , it is projected to complete at the 81.51-81.12 region. Following this, I anticipate a brief rally in wave 4 of the minute degree to the 82.280-82.48 region before the market experiences a drop to complete wave 3 of the minor degree and wave 3 of the intermediate degree, respectively. The H1 S/R level is expected to provide strong resistance for the price at the 82.46 - 82.67 region. It is possible that wave 3 of the intermediate degree may take several days to complete. Therefore, I will continue to monitor the chart and provide updates as necessary. It is important to note that if the price reaches 82.839, this outlook becomes invalidated.
Short
by Samuel124
1
USDCHF has Potential for Further DownsideThe USDCHF currency pair exhibits a marked bearish trend over the long and medium terms. In the short term, a clear bearish price action has been observed since March 21, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Analysis from the Elliott wave perspective suggests that the corrective wave 4 of the impulsive bearish move has been completed, and the pair has started moving downwards to complete wave 5. A reasonable price target of 0.8821 is anticipated if wave 5 is not truncated. Classical analysis indicates that the price is currently trapped between a steep bearish trendline and a shallow bullish trendline. A support level established over the last 10 days is currently being upheld. It is anticipated that sellers will maintain their selling pressure, resulting in a break of the trendline to the downside. This notion is supported by the price's rejection at the 0.8953 level. Considering both perspectives, my medium-term target for the USDCHF pair is estimated to be 0.8860 , while my ultimate target is 0.8821 .
Short
by Samuel124
CADJPY: Anticipating a Bullish BreakoutCADJPY has been observed to be in a bullish trend that was initiated on the 24th of March. From the technical analysis, it appears that the pair has completed wave 1 and 3 of the impulsive move, with wave 3 delivering a considerable 280 pips gain. The wave 3 appears to have peaked on April 4th at 99.185, and since then, we have seen a decline in price, indicating the onset of corrective wave 4. My current analysis reveals that the pair is presently in corrective wave 4, which appears to be characterized by a contracting triangle pattern. Based on this observed pattern, I'm anticipating an upward breakout to complete the wave 5 of the impulsive move. Consequently, my ultimate price objective for CADJPY is 99.858 , with a medium-term target set at 99.432 . It is essential to note that any price decline below 95.505 will render this forecast invalid.
Long
by Samuel124
If the top is in, we find the bottomStill awaiting additional price confirmation we are in Cycle wave C downward, but here is the current forecast if the current market top holds. My hourly program generated the usual waypoints based on historical data. Interestingly enough, Cycle wave A (the downward period between January – October 2022 was 1365 trading hours. Not to be outdone, Cycle wave B upward (October 2022 to July 2023) was 1366 trading hours. A common ABC relationship at times is the length of A plus the length of B equaling the length of wave C. I have outlined the most common lengths the program agreed on regarding the length of cycle wave C and placed them vertically on the chart. Of course 2731 hours is one of those values which could place the possible bottom as late as February 2025. The market bottoms based on most specific dataset to the current wave structure are the light blue levels, next slightly broader dataset produced the yellow levels, and the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C are the white levels. Based on these potential lengths and overall movements, I determined where Primary wave 1 should bottom based on historical data and each yellow outlined boxed represents these factors. I generally do not trade too much during the first wave, but instead allow the first wave to finish and then begin buying and selling based on the finalized data and historical relationships for expected movement. If Cycle wave C is 910 trading hours long, then the smallest box would likely contain the location of Primary wave 1’s bottom. The left side of this rectangle is the minimum length of time based on historical Primary wave 1 data and therefore the timeframe that wave 1 would likely reach at a minimum. The right side of this rectangle represents the third quartile of historical movement and therefore a possible maximum timeframe for wave 1’s bottom to occur. The additional boxes do the same regarding left and right bounds and all boxes correlate with the next duration in order (i.e. if the overall length is 1366 hours, the bottom should occur between the left and right bounds of the next largest rectangle). Rectangles were created for 910, 1366, 1821, 2047, 2731, and 3415 trading hours. The top and bottoms of the box relate to the potential market bottoms for the bear market. The top of the smallest box relates to the minimum historical movement if the market bottom is at 3328.09. The bottom of this same box relates to the third quartile of historical data for 3328.09. If the bottom ends between the top and bottom of this box, the market bottom could be around 3328.09. The tops and bottoms of the next box are related to an overall market bottom around 3271.95. Rectangles were created for market bottoms of 3328.09, 3271.95, 3183.44, 2972.71, 2878.89, and 2733.44. What does all this mean? Once Primary wave 1 ends, the bottom should fall in one of these boxes. We could use the endpoint to potentially rule out what the duration and bottoms WILL NOT be for this bear market. If the bottom of Primary wave 1 falls in the small rectangle which overlaps all rectangles, nothing can be ruled out yet. Additionally, the bottom of Primary wave 1 should get below 4300 at the very least, considering the market is above 4500 today, we are looking for at least a 200 point drop over the next few weeks. My initial projection for the market bottom from last July was around 2400 by March 2025. Based on all the completed data to this point, I am looking for a bottom sooner and likely in the middle of the fall of 2024. The bottom should not be as deep as originally forecasted either, and my initial call is likely no lower than 2700, but likely below 2900. So far it looks like the country’s credit rating was the first of many dominos to fall over the next year as the market moves lower. I still think a China v. Taiwan situation could do the most damage, but we shall see what happens. Oil prices have been creeping up as well over the past month and the inflated costs of goods have not begun to take form yet. Companies will be refinancing their debts at higher and higher levels moving forward and nowhere near enough companies have failed yet. Big ones will fall, and best guess as at least 4 big names go down before the market is done moving down.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
One more down day and then...Strong chance Intermediate wave 4 ends tomorrow if Minor waves A and B are already completed. There is an off chance the marked wave A and B in yellow letters are only Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of wave A, however, the historical data was pretty adamant on Intermediate wave 4 only lasting around 2-4 days which makes the current chart setup very likely. Another key level comes into play that I original wrote off when the models first projected the bottom of Intermediate wave 4. The strongest models indicated the total Intermediate wave 4 retracement would only be 15.06% of Intermediate wave 3’s entire move. That level equates to 4261.48. The index is pretty much there already. However, I believe we have just completed Minute wave 2 to the upside inside of the final Minor wave C. Confirmation of this position will likely occur with a significant drop within the first 2 hours of trading tomorrow and could see a gap down on the premarket economic data. Based on the historical data, all models and datasets point to Minor wave C lasting 0-2, and most likely only one day. Day 1 is officially tomorrow and will contain the likely market bottom that won’t be breached for 1-2 months. Based on waves ending in C4C, the likely bottom for Minor wave C will be at the 114.61% retracement of Minor wave A’s movement, or 120.8%, or 137.50%. Based on waves ending in 4C, the median retracement levels will be 113.25%, 126.76% or 174.83%. Through the middle of all these levels lies a horizontal trendline which has provided strong resistance during the course of Primary wave C, however, it was broken through on June 2 and could provide support for tomorrow’s likely bottom. The final bottom does not appear to be below 4236.01 and may only be as low as 4254. If we gap down at the open it would likely gap below 4254 which could place bottom around 4240. I do not foresee the original projections down around 4210 in play. Once again, the open holds the key to the day. I plan to analyze again after tomorrow and project the final market top for 2023-2026 by this weekend.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Temporary Debt Ceiling RetracementLooks like Minor wave 3 ended a tad shy of 4136 and a few days late, but still on track overall. Minor wave 4 should only last 2-3 days with the bottom likely occurring by Thursday at the latest. It is possible Minute wave A inside of Minor wave 4 was completed today. Models are pointing to the bottom around 4176 based on historical Minor wave data. Minute wave C could end with a 138.2% retracement of Minute wave A which would place the bottom around 4177. Once Minor wave 4 is finished, Minor wave 5 should complete Intermediate wave 3 up with a larger top at one of the highest prices experienced in over 12 months. Based on all of the Intermediate wave 3 interior waves, Intermediate wave 3 will likely come up short from initial forecasts above 4300. The top will likely occur sometime next week around 4268. I will likely look into Intermediate wave 4’s bottom around the middle of next week. This drop for Minor wave 4 will likely continue until the House and/or Senate votes on the debt ceiling bill. Everything should see a nice jump when the bill is passed, however, something else is lurking around the corner with Intermediate wave 4 down. CPI is June 13, PPI is June 14 along with the next Fed rate decision in the afternoon. Looks like market could drop into the Fed meeting but begin Intermediate wave 5 upward after the meeting. With the debt ceiling likely out of the way by mid-June and Fed news possibly positive, the cause of the major market top near the end of June beginning of July could be earnings related or geopolitical. China action against Taiwan is still my leading catalyst especially after the GPU chip boom. This could turn into a major bust quickly if China takes Taiwan in a short or prolonged conflict. Too much of the world operates on chips moving through Taiwan.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Hit the target top, now for the bottomIf Intermediate wave 1 is finally done, it was a few days late, but on target. Next forecast is for Intermediate wave 2 which should see the anticipated market decline over the next 5-12 days. This means the bottom should occur prior to May 2. As of now, Intermediate wave 1 was 23 days long. Waves ending in 2BC2 have been 20-50% the length of their first wave’s length. The projected retracement percentages have not change, but the values have slightly as the initial estimates were based on Intermediate wave 1 topping at 4160. The most specific datasets correlate to the retracement levels in light blue. The 33.44% value represents the first quartile of historical movement for waves ending in 2BC2. The median is 60.60% and the third quartile is 77.87%. The next specific values are in yellow and the are tied to historical waves ending in BC2. The third quartile is not displayed in yellow because it is also the 77.87% from the first dataset. The length of wave 2 based on this slightly larger dataset has it lasting 5-12 days again, with the strongest model agreement on 7 days. This could put the bottom around April 25. The final set of values are based on a larger and broader dataset based on the behavior of waves ending in C2. These values are in white and the median value is omitted because it is close to the yellow value of 67.86%. The strongest model agreement suggests wave 2 could last 23 days (18 models) followed by 8 days (14 models), 12 days (12 models), and 7 days (6 models). Declines could be related to earnings and speculation on the Fed which will provide the next rate hike determination and hint toward the future during the first week in May. Based on all the data, I am placing the bottom around 3922-3950. This will depend if the index starts moving down tomorrow or if another new high is reached. After this next bottom we should jump into the final strong rally of this uptrend possibly gaining 350-450 points over the course of 4 weeks. A perfect catalyst for this would be the Fed doing what is expected and hinting at a pause on rate hikes. While I do not agree it is a smart thing to do, it will be one of the many catalysts for the massive declines set to begin around mid-late June. Let’s play the drop, the big gain, and then its prevent defense time (after wave 4 down and wave 5 up).
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Update on current top and next bottomFollowing up on last week. Analysis said the short-term top would be 4 days according to most models. Outside chance of 9 or 11 days too. We never convincingly went down yet. The current top would be B's 9th full trading day. This would mean the CPI report may not be positive for the market as applied to the last analysis. We still need a drop of some days. A longer B would make the final C down even longer than the first projection. I don't think we bottom before CPI. This also means we must break below the original end of wave A which was 3764. We could lose 200 points this week I have plotted the Minor waves (yellow letters) inside of Intermediate B as I see them in this moment, however Minor wave C looks short at one day long (if it is indeed over). Based on historical data for waves ending in BBC I plotted the quartile movement extensions for Minor wave C based on the data in Minor wave A. The median historical movement would put the top around 3903.038 and the third quartile would be 3909.768. The current top from January 6 is between those two levels. Additionally, the potential lengths have strong agreement at 4 days, second most is 2 & 3 days, third most is 5 days, and then 1 day. The majority of models are pointing to another possible high early in the week, but based on the large movement from last Friday, Minor wave C and Intermediate B could be over. Time to clarify Intermediate wave C and the end of Primary wave B. The original levels are all still valid. My narrow call for a bottom is between 3625-3675. The only new variable to consider is the length of Intermediate wave C. Based on waves ending in 2BBC, Intermediate wave C could now last 6, 11, 18, or 26 days. Based on waves ending in BBC, the most models agree on a length of 6, 12, or 18 days. Second most is 5 days, and third most is 7-11 days long. Based on a broader dataset for waves ending in BC, most models agree on 5 and 15 days. Second ties at 12 and 18 days. Third is 4, 6 and 9 days. Fourth is 21 and 22 days. Next is 8, 10, 13, 14, 16, and 24 days. My original projection from last month was a bottom around January 25 which is 12 trading days. January 19 would be 8 days, and January 17 is 6 days. Compared to the volatility we have been experiencing and have the CPI report likely to play some roll in the drop, 12 days seem too long. With 6-8 days found as a favorite in the models, I will plan for seven days long for now. VERDICT: I am short in the short-term (to January 18), long in the medium-term (Summer 2023), and short in the longer-term (1st quarter 2025). For the bottom pending more data it is possibly around January 18 below 3650.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Bottom before CPI followed by months of greenTesting for perceived location: SubMillennial wave: 1 Grand SuperCycle wave: 5 SuperCycle wave: 2 Cycle wave: B Primary wave: B Intermediate wave: B Location ID: 152BBB This is an update on the progress of Primary wave B. My last analysis ( ) projected Intermediate wave A (inside of Primary wave B) to bottom on December 22 which appears to be the case for now. Minor waves 3 and 4 inside of Intermediate A did appear to hit their marks as well. Minute wave 3 in Minor wave 3 was confirmed on an hourly chart by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder ( ). This would appear to confirm the location of Minor wave 3 and further confirm Intermediate wave A is over, even though the bottom was not as deep as projected. The prior analysis also projected Intermediate wave B to top around 3925 by January 5. Due to Intermediate wave A not dropping as far, wave B may not reach this top. The following are the projections for the end of Intermediate wave B based on the assumed conclusion of Intermediate wave A. Intermediate wave A lasted 15 trading days, moved 278.13 for a rise over run of 18.542 points per day. The left most set of lines are for determining Intermediate wave B endpoints. Based on waves ending in 2BBB, the length of Intermediate wave B may only be 3 to 4 days (which we are beyond at this point). The most current top was 4 days after the end of wave A which theoretically means Intermediate B could be over. In my opinion this movement would be quick and historical data for waves ending in 2BBB is very limited so let’s explore the other datasets first. The quartiles for movement retracement are at 39.28%, 56.545% and 73.81%. This would point to tops at 3896.48, 3954.49, and 4012.50 (the light blue lines on the chart). Based on waves ending in BBB, the strongest model agreement for length is at 3 and 4 days again, with additional indications of 5 and 9 days long as well. The maximum lengths are generally only 60% of wave A’s move, while most are no higher than 33%. This would likely cap the length of wave A at 9 days, with a more likely cap at 5 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 29.76%, 52.325%, and 68.64%. These are the yellow lines on the chart. The largest dataset, and less specific, is for waves ending in BB. In order of strongest model agreement intermediate wave B could last 4 or 3 days. The third most agreement is a tie amongst 5, 8, 15, and 30 days. Fourth most agreement is at 9 and 11 trading days. Movement retracement quartiles are near the previous levels with the 3rd quartile being the outlier at 86.58% (the white level on the chart). All datasets tend to point to a length around 3-4 days which has not only passed our current position but the current top was achieved on day 4. The level may have been lower than the quartiles from the models, however, it is in line with some of the historical movement. We will likely wait and see what happens next. Based on what would have been expected of Intermediate wave B, we will now assume Intermediate B has completed and begin to forecast Intermediate wave C. The plots for Minor waves A and B and end point for Intermediate wave B are plotted on the chart. This also means this first week of 2023 should move below the high from December 29, 2022 for a few weeks. ============================================ Current location: SubMillennial wave: 1 Grand SuperCycle wave: 5 SuperCycle wave: 2 Cycle wave: B Primary wave: B Intermediate wave: C Location ID: 152BBC The data for Intermediate wave A has not changed from above which was 15 trading days long, drop of 278.13 points for rise over run of 18.542. With the assessed conclusion of Intermediate wave B, it lasted 4 trading days, rose 35.81 points for a rise over run of 8.953 points/day. Intermediate wave B retraced wave A’s length by only 26.67% and retraced it’s movement by 12.88%. The centermost lines in the chart above outline the potential endpoints for Intermediate wave C. Based on waves ending in 2BBC, Intermediate C could last 6, 8, 11, or 12 trading days. No one value stands out. The movement extension quartiles are very compact at 127.13%, 130.095%, 133.06%. These levels are light blue above. Based on waves ending in BBC, the most model agreement has Intermediate wave C ending at 8 trading days. Secondary agreement is at 5 and 12 days. Many points all tie for third most agreement. The movement extension quartiles are 104.14%, 121.565%, 127.47%. The new levels are the yellow lines above. Based on waves ending in BC, the most model agreement has Intermediate wave C ending at 2, 4, 8, 12, and 15 days. The second most agreement is at 5 trading days long. Third most agreement is at 16 days. The movement extension quartiles are at 108.66%, 133.315%, 147.17%. These levels are the white lines in the middle section above. Based on all of these considerations it looks like we are in for a down week to begin 2023. I have placed the end of Intermediate wave C (which is also the end of Primary wave B around 3663 on January 11, 2023. That means we could drop a little less than 200 points over the next week and a half. All things considered with the market’s volatility over the past year, this will be slow and likely full of indecisive trading. The rightmost set of retracement lines outline the overall retracement of Primary wave B in relation to Primary wave A. This target bottom would place the overall retracement around 70% of Primary wave A’s gain of 600+ points. What could be the catalyst for this final bottom? I have us rising strong until the summer of 2023 with highs above 4400-4600 range. January 10th and 11th will be quiet on the economic news front, however, the latest CPI read will be January 12th. This could be the catalyst. There are likely 2 ways to consider this number and things to remember. Inflation really accelerated one year ago. Inflation is likely high, but when considering where we were one year ago it should drop significantly. Therefore, the algorithmic trading computers will likely see a low print as a high win for the Fed and its monetary policies of the prior year. Although this is hiding a major issue, people will not care to look at the actual cause. A low print will start the moonshot the market is soon to face. I will have plenty of time in the coming months to explain why the market top in mid-2023 will be followed by a likely 40-50% drop in the market, but who cares. Enjoy the quick gains and be ready to play it safe later.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
3
Week starts down and up after elections?If we are in Cycle B, and if it began on October 13, then we are likely in Intermediate wave 2 right now. Intermediate wave 1 would have lasted 13 days and gained 420.21. Right now I have the market in Cycle wave B, Primary A, Intermediate 2, Minor C, Minute 3. A down day on Monday would likely confirm this position. Also, if we are in wave 3 there would likely be a gap down at the open. I have projected the end of Intermediate 2 based on the Intermediate wave 1 data in combination with historical relationships. I have also projected the end of Intermediate 2 Minor C based on Minor waves A and B. Levels forecasting the bottom of intermediate 2 are on the right while the left levels are forecasts for Minor wave C Right now the bottom may occur either late on Tuesday or early Wednesday (the election is the likely catalyst and bottom). The bottom will likely occur above 3625 but below 3700. I will re-analyze if we do not drop all the way or there is any other deviation outside of reason.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
2
Up and Down For 3 more weeksThis chart lays out the estimated Minor waves in Intermediate 5 as mentioned in my weekend analysis. These estimates place: The bottom of Minor 1 around 3601.23 today for a total wave 1 loss around 205.68; The top of Minor 2 around 3740.37 on October 12th for a gain around 139.77; The bottom of Minor 3 around 3474.12 on October 18th for a loss around 266.25; The top of Minor 4 around 3555.33 on October 20th for a gain around 81.21; The final bottom for Minor 5, Intermediate 5, Primary 5, and Cycle A around 3340.36 on October 26th for a loss around 214.97. These estimates nearly align with all levels from the other day but there is some give in take in them. We will see how close these levels as well as everything mentioned in the weekend analysis occur.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Almost done with Intermediate 3 down Thinking we may have ended Minor wave 4 (yellow numbers) today with a strong jump. Expecting the GDP report to confirm for everyone we are in a recession tomorrow. The yellow lines are the historical quartiles for waves ending in 535, while the light blue lines are the same for waves ending in 35. The slightly longer lines are extensions of Intermediate wave 3 from wave 1. I tend to favor the more specific data so I am considering the 535 data slightly more than the 35 data. We are looking at strong data for this fifth wave to last 2-4 days. If we do not go higher than today’s high, tomorrow would be day 1. Our original projection for Intermediate wave 3 had it ending on October 4. That would mean this wave could last for 4 days. I think Monday is most likely but we will count the waves down as we go. From a day’s perspective, waves 1 and 3 were equal in length. From an hourly perspective, wave 1 was 30 trading hours while wave 3 was only 27. This could put a maximum length of wave 5 at no more than 27 trading hours which is October 4th at 1430 eastern time (meaning until 1530). I think getting done before this is easily doable. The levels to watch for Intermediate wave 3 based on Intermediate wave 1 are between 3477.78 and 3595.96. The levels to watch for Minor wave 5 based on Minor wave 3 are between 3483.30 and 3585.24. These Minor wave levels likely help narrow our target zone for the bottom to be less than 3585 and greater than 3525. I would plan an exit around 3550 or see how we move along the way.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
Blueprint for remainder of bear marketWe are unveiling our finals paths based on the completion of waves 1 and 2 inside of our suspected final downturn for 2022. We believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3, Minor wave 3, and believe we may have completed Minute wave 4 at the close on Friday. Our next steps would be to complete the final Minute wave 5 drop which will simultaneously end Minor wave 3 sometime early next week. We consider our current position as a wave labeled 152A5335, which will be referred to as a wave ending in 5335 or 335. We expect this wave to be completed Monday or Tuesday at the latest. This does mean we should not only go lower than the Friday close, but we will also likely take out the June low. DETERMINING END OF MINOR WAVE 3 We expect an extension greater than 172.04% to occur for the Minor wave 3 bottom based on Minor wave 1. This would put the low beneath 3633.78. Furthermore, we expect Minute wave 5 to extend 122.05-134.03% beyond Minute wave 3 which puts the bottom between 3598-3616. This would mean we drop around 80-95 points from the Friday close which is around 2.5%. If this holds true Monday and part of Tuesday will likely continue the major drop in the index. The historical minimal move extension for waves ending in 335 is 89.35% which means Minute wave 5 must drop below 3662.62. The first quartile move is at 3616.11 and the median move would place the bottom at 3599.07. Historical moves are not necessarily accurate but most times they provide a good ballpark figure for wave movements. These levels are left most lines on the chart below. The right most lines are the historical extensions for waves ending in 533. These are the projected movement extensions for Minor 3 based on the completed movement of Minor wave 1. The yellow lines represent the historical first quartile movement (133.48%), the median (160.79%) and the third quartile (221.60%). The blue lines are the same but for waves ending in 33 (so based on many more data points, slightly less specific to our current situation). Minor wave 3 appears to be on the higher end of retracements according to the right most lines and our forecast of the bottom around 3600. Minor wave 4’s position is a complete guess right now and we will have a better idea once Minor wave 3 ends. Minor wave 2 moved up about 70 points over 24 trading hours. The movement was slow and not exactly at steep climb. Through most of our research wave 2 OR wave 4 is a quick and sharp move, while the other is slower and not as steep. Right now we would classify wave 2 as the slower one, which opens the door for Minor wave 4 to be quicker than 24 trading hours and a steeper gain. This could see a gain greater than 70 points in a much quicker timeframe ergo a 1-2 rally. Intermediate wave 3 (purple/pink/fuchsia) is placed roughly where we believe it will fall timewise, while the movement will be clarified once Minor wave 3 is completed. WHERE AND WHEN WILL PRIMARY WAVE 5 AND CYCLE WAVE A END? We try to plot out our waves and adjust once each wave completes. We firmly believe Intermediate waves 1 and 2 are complete and wave 3 is nearing completion. Wave 1 was 14 days long according to our wave count and wave 2 was 4 days long. We estimated from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 that is would be 16 days long which still appears to look valid. We are projecting Intermediate wave 4 to be slower and not as quick as Intermediate wave 2 because wave 2 appeared to meet the criteria for quick and steep movement. Lastly, we are estimating Intermediate wave 5 will be around the lengths of waves 1 and 3 so we are projecting 15 trading days. We begin to look for real world events to explain our estimates AFTER we have plotted our estimates. In the current case. We strongly believed Intermediate wave 3 would be shaped by a bad inflation report, a week of pre-Fed speculation and then a more pronounced decline after the Fed rate decision. These appeared to hit the mark and these forecasts are viewable in our TradingView profile forever. As far as why will Intermediate wave 3 end around October 4 is a slight mystery. It is possible the JOLTS report shows some fewer jobs openings which would begin to meet some of the Fed’s dovish criteria. Nonetheless, we expect upward movement for Intermediate wave 4. Why does Intermediate wave 4 end? After we plotted this estimate we later learned this top aligns with the next inflation numbers. We project Wave 4 to end on October 12 and the inflation report arrives before the market opens on October 13. A bad report (or the perception of one) would likely tailspin the final Intermediate wave 5 down. This downtrend will likely occur all the way to the Fed rate decision which is slated for November 2. Coincidently enough, our Intermediate wave 5 projection places the market bottom on November 2. Our explanation is that the Fed reduces the rate hike to a potential 0.5% or maintains a 0.75% in order to not “interfere” with the elections which happen the next week. This was a similar consideration the Fed made before the November 2020 elections. We are forecasting the start of a major rally after the Fed decision simply based on Elliott Wave Theory. Stay tuned for more!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
We will be long-short-longThat is long in the short-term (until the Fed), short in the medium-term (until October), and long in the long-term (until next Spring). Through some creative analysis, I have us in Primary wave 4, Intermediate wave C, and Minor wave 2. I expect Minor wave 2 to end tomorrow, likely earlier in the day and then we begin Minor wave 3 up toward 3975. It may take 2-3 days until wave 3 ends. Wave 4 will likely be a day long and I have currently plotted it halfway between the projected movement of wave 3. The final wave 5 will likely last around 2 days. Based on prior wave C movement, the strongest model agreement has wave C lasting 7 days. I figure 7-9 is safe. Based on prior wave 4 movement, the overall move has the most model agreement at 28 days. I think we will fall short of this mark as the Fed rate hike occurs two days prior to this point. We could drop into the rate hike and finish 4 with a wave 5 up after the hike if “it’s not as bad as forecasted,” but most of us are ready for the 100+ basis point future. Wave 3s ending in 4C3 tend to extend 101% beyond wave 1’s movement 75% of the time (1st Quartile), beyond 112.68% on 50% of the occasions (2nd Quartile / Median) and 25% of the time (3rd Quartile) it will extend 125.81%. Wave 4s ending in 2A4 tend to retrace the wave 3 in which they follow by 29.58% on 75% of occasions (1st Quartile), retrace 54.82% half of the time (2nd Quartile / Median), retrace 84.72% on a quarter of occurrences (3rd Quartile). We will likely top out above 4000, but how much further remains unknown. Early earnings may be paltry, but earnings forecasts post-Fed rate hike will likely take us down through 3400 over the next 2-3 months.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Will market land hard over next 2 days?INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 We are potentially wrapping up Intermediate wave 1 and Minor wave 5 at the beginning of Primary wave C. We appear to have completed Minor wave 1 with a low by 12:30 on April 1. Minor wave 2 finished in the first hour of trading on April 5. Minor wave 3 bottom before 13:30 on April 6. Minor wave 4 may have ended today, during the final 30 minutes of the session. There is a chance Minor wave 4 ends tomorrow. This would require a new high above 4521.16. Right now, wave 4 has moved 49.59% that which Minor wave 3 moved. Although 50% is not an official Fibonacci percent, it is a historical reversal price. The biggest forecast metric for Elliott Wave Theory is the length of wave 3. In the current setup, if my wave count is accurate, has Minor wave 3 shorter than Minor wave 1. This means Minor wave 5 cannot be longer than Minor wave 3. Minor wave 3 concluded in 11 hourly trading bars. This means whenever wave 5 begins, it cannot be longer than 11 hours in length. If wave 4 has ended, 11 hours begin tomorrow. There are 7 hourly trading bars (in the 6.5 hour trading session). Minor wave 5 could end no later than 12:30 on April 11. It is also possible Minor wave 5 ends tomorrow. For this to occur, the index will most likely drop below the low (and endpoint) from Minor wave 3 which was 4450.04. At the very least, this requires a drop of 1.57%. This is certainly possible in one day, but something significant geopolitically or economically would likely have to occur. My initial targets are between 4378.34 and 4435.70, although my models have strong agreement at 4442. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 When Minor wave 5 ends, so does Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 will be comprised of a three wave (ABC) which moves upward. This will most likely occur next week being a holiday shortened week. Economic calendar is light and earnings season does not kick off until the final trading day next week with the banks. This wave could last 1-2 weeks, until the full earnings picture is realized (forecast not good). INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 is where I am forecasting the most significant downward movement. This could be due to Russia-Ukraine, but it will also occur during earnings season. My guess is the economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, transportation costs, along with the Fed’s pace and rate of rate increases will take center stage during earning calls. This outlook may look bleak in the near-term, but I expect the market to find its bottom before the end of the summer and as early as mid-May.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
4
SP500 either topped, will top, or flying high for yearsMy patience is being tested right now. I am running out of possible days of length and price targets. I have the market in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave B (began February 24, 2022), Intermediate wave C (began March 8, 2022). The shorthand for this wave is 1532BC which is based on wave letters and numbers combined. Right now, Intermediate wave C (if we are still in it, we cannot be for much longer) is: 1) 1) 15 days long 2) 2) Gain of 479.43 3) 3) 300% the length of wave A 4) 4) 172.99% the move of wave A 5) 5) Accounts for 65.22% of the larger wave’s (Primary B) length 6) 6) Makes up 91.73% of the larger wave’s (Primary B) move This also makes the stats on Primary wave B look like: 7) 7) 23 days long 8) 8) Gain of 522.65 9) 9) 65.71% retracement of Primary wave A’s length (35 bars) 10) 10) 74.24% retracement of Primary wave A’s movement (dropped 703.97 points) 1-My models only forecast 15, 17 and 27 days in length for wave C. Most of the model agreement was below 10 days. 2-The move is not necessarily a factor by itself but the additional data will use this. The price forecasts below the current high is 4633.725. The next set of price points tops below 4700 are: 4637.45, 4652.15, 4653.96, 4657.99, 4664.74, 4665.448, 4673.78, 4674.76, 4675.68, 4676.19, 4681.05, 4689.68, 4697.24. These prices begin to have more gaps than the prices below this point. There is a 4 point grouping in the 4670s. 3-Intermediate C waves rarely exceed the 300% length of wave A which is where the index is based on today’s high. Intermediate C has moved 276.92% (wave ended C2C, we are 2BC), 281.25% (2BC), 466.67% (C2C), 517.39 (54C). 4-Intermediate C waves ending in BC have a median move which is 127.13% of Intermediate wave A and an average of 123.72%. Intermediate C waves ending in 2BC have a median move of 152.47% and an average of 142.60%. The maximum is 242.75% of intermediate wave A’s movement. We are above the normal in the current case. 5-In the three wave structure of Primary wave B, Intermediate C waves ending in BC have a median contribution of 31.25% for Primary wave B’s length and an average of 33.46%. Waves ending in 2BC have a median contribution of 49.45% and average of 44.22%. The highest contribution so far is 64.29% for 2BC and BC waves. 6-Likewise regarding the contribution to the overall wave, BC waves make up 68.74% as a median and 70.32% on average. There are four occasions above 90.49%. Waves ending in 2BC have a median make up of 90.49% and with a maximum at 95.12%. The current contribution is still acceptable, and quite common for 2BC waves. 7-The forecast days from my models at and above the current length are 26, 28, 32, 40, 51, 52, 59, 63, and 70 days in length. Strong agreement at 26 and 28 days. 8-The price forecasts for the end of Primary wave B have a few tight price target pockets which are: 4637.365, 4637.588, 4645.7, 4645.874, 4654.17, 4654.2, 4654.525, 4658.71, 4658.962, 4659.03, 4659.04, 4659.691, 4675.203, 4677.57, 4677.81, 4687.6, 4687.61, 4688.36, 4688.39. 9-Typical Primary waves ending in 2B match 25% to 400% the length of Primary wave A. Waves ending in 32B usually retrace around 55-70% with an outlier at 400%. We are in the smaller window now, but only for a day or two more at most. 10-Typical Primary waves ending in 2B move 41 to 88% of wave A’s movement. Waves ending in 32B move 54-77% which we are also nearing the high end of this window. To conclude, 1) the market has either topped today and we finally began Primary wave C downward with the final 15 minutes of trading today; 2) the market can rise for 2 more days at most before a reversal; or 3) We are not in Primary waves B or C and instead we ended all of the downward movement on February 24. If the latter is the case we are in the early stages of Cycle 3 which will see massive upward momentum for possibly 2-3 years. If option 1 remains valid, the chart below shows early signs of where movement will take us. Regardless of option 1 or 2, we will find a bottom and then begin Cycle 3 with the same aforementioned results. I am bullish long-term, but remain bearish in the short-term until we either break above 4818 or move below 3900.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
What we know and what we can't proveTrying to gauge the current wave is a tad taxing. We know Supercycle 1 ended at the beginning of 2022. This is followed by Supercycle wave 2 which is composed of an ABC corrective wave. The question is are we in the early stages of wave C and about to end Supercycle 2, or are we in the middle of wave A with plenty of plummeting ahead? Historics would have Supercycle 2 end 49, 95, 104, 125, or 128 trading days after it began. Wave movements in the past 4 years have been getting quicker and more volatile which would point to a quicker end, but would these be the shortest wave 2 in relation to all other waves? Unlikely, but possible. If we are in early wave C or early wave 3 (still in wave A) we should see drastic downward movement this week. I will re-evaluate if neither one of these pan out. The blocks under my red arrow contain the early estimates of where Supercycle wave 2 could end. The maximum length would have been 49 days. The lighter blue arrowed blocks contain my current estimates if we are in early wave C. These boxes should be met no later than February 17-28. The other option is we are in the early stages of wave A's wave 3 which would see a bottom in a few more weeks followed by more major up and down swings. I do not like this scenario simply because Supercycle 2 would not end for a few months with a likely bottom below 3000. Historics says this level is way too low which is why I do not think Supercycle 2 will be prolonged. We will find out where we are by the end of February and if we can touch all-time highs again by April/May.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Can we lose 6% this week?I am short this week. Long for the following three. Short for the four after it. We should start strong on Monday and finally end Intermediate Wave 4 early. Right now the models point to a bottom by Friday, that bottom is projected for the 4160 mark. This would mark the final bottom for Primary wave A which has been the downtrend since the beginning of the year. Next week, not this week, we should begin massive upward moves which should last a little less than a month. Early estimates have the market gaining around 14% after we find the bottom this week. After Primary wave B tops, March would be a blood bath again, with early forecasts of the bottom occurring below 3650.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
1
Crashing or Correcting? I say...This appears to be perfectly in line with an expected correction. Cycle 1 just end at the beginning of January, which was about 2 earlier than my initial estimates but that is why I call them estimates. Cycle 2 should bottom around early March. Historically speaking, the second Cycle wave retraces the length of its wave 1 by 10-23%. The largest retracement was 39%, but corrections appear to be quicker and steeper these days so I am sticking with the 10-23% range as the likely zone for this one. A 23% could have this wave last 104 days which is late May. I would call this retracement the least likely. This date can serve as the maximum possible bottom. The majority of historical datapoints suggest the end of this Cycle wave could end 44-48 trading days after it begun. This is the early March endpoint, discussed above. I have painted these narrow zones based off of typical wave 2 retracements of wave 1. The major zones for the bottom are between 3989.09-4166.66, 3800-3989.09, and 3605.84-3800. My initial rough math guess was a bottom around 3636, but I am favoring the middle zone here. We still have hundreds of points to shave off the index so I expect the next months to be rocky. Remember Cycle wave 2 is a 3-wave pattern down (in this case). That means wave A will be down, wave B will move up, I will provide better estimates on that soon. Lastly wave C will take us home to the bottom. My second analysis will be where I project the current SuperCycle to end, based on the end of Cycle 1.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1