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Ew_analytics

Green to start week, low by ThursdayAs a future learning lesson, the below image signaled wave 3 of 3 of 3, wave 3 of 3, and the beginning of the end of Intermediate wave 3 as soon as the Intermediate wave 3 signal ended, I should have known Intermediate wave 3 was over as historically this is the signal. The bottom was inline with historical endpoints, however, I expected it to go about 50-70 points lower. Assuming Intermediate wave 3 is indeed over, it ended higher than originally expected which means Primary wave 1 could ended higher than expected too. I missed the beginning of Intermediate wave 4, but this analysis should assist in pinpointing the end of it. The Intermediate wave recap is: Intermediate wave 1 lost 271.76 points in 112 hours. Intermediate wave 2 gained 205.94 points in 76 hours. Intermediate wave 3 lost 324.80 points in 151 hours. This idea had quality data to forecast the top of Intermediate wave 2: This idea from August 31st forecasted the bottom of Intermediate wave 3 around October 6, which now appears to be 3 days late: Although the length pocket called out 149-156 hours long, it was a tertiary model. The answer was there but I will see if I can provide stronger forecasts in the future. I originally expected Intermediate wave 4 to last a week or two and rise toward 4450, but some of the following analyses do not favor this expectation. The initial models based on historical retracement levels for Intermediate wave 4’s top puts the maximum upward move at 4448.57, although most models place the maximum possibility no higher than 4429. A majority of movement retracement models place the top between 4355.74-4364.70 which is not far from Friday’s close. The overall movement models have strong pockets for the top between 4370-4380 and 4400-4409. Duration models are strongest at 76 hours (length of wave 2), 112 hours (length of wave 1), and 38 hours (half the length of wave 2). It is unlikely any of these will be the duration, simply because the relationships of 1:1 and 1:2 are more common in micro waves and not in macro waves. For instance, a micro wave that is 10 hours could have a wave 4 that is 5 or 10 hours because the possible duration value is limited. Macro waves which are much longer typically don’t have the perfect 1:1 or 1:2 relationships. If we keep these durations in mind, but discount them when looking for others, the models next agree the most at 56 hours, followed by 37 hours, 25, 51, 101, 30, and then 67. Intermediate wave 4 is currently 23 hours long as of the close on Friday. 56 hours ends on the afternoon of October 13. 37 hours would be in the final hour of trading on October 10. 25 hours would be within the first 2 hours of trading on October 9. 51 hours would be in the final hour of trading on October 12. 101 hours is around the early hours on October 24. 30 hours would be the final hour of trading on Monday, October 9. 67 hours falls in the early hours on October 17. THEORY 1: END OF INTERMEDIATE WAVE 4 IMMINENT Keeping these durations in mind, I have attempted to figure out which waves have already been completed in Intermediate wave 4. A 25-30 hour theory would make the assumption that Minor waves A and B are completed and Minor wave C is not, Minor wave C could do the following. Models call for a duration between 8-11 hours and the current length as of Friday’s close was 5 hours. The movement extension models call for the high at levels at or below 4317. The three historical outlier datapoint levels could have the highs at 4320, 4361, and 4427. With the majority of realistic levels all being breached, it appears unlikely Intermediate wave 4 is nearly over. Based on the levels forecast for Minor wave C in this case, it is more likely Intermediate wave 4 ended at 4324.10 in the second to last hour of trading on Friday which seems way too fast and is a red flag that this theory is unlikely. Confirmation of this theory is downward action breaking below 4216.45 this week. THEORY 2: EARLY STAGES OF INTERMEDIATE WAVE 4 If longer duration models are more accurate, the index may only be in Minor wave A and likely just completed Minute wave 3 based on the wave 3 signal at the bottom of the chart. If this holds true, the following should occur next. First we will forecast where Minute wave 3 should end based on Minute waves 1 and 2. The current median levels based on historical models place the high between 4322.98-4329.85 which is where the current high achieved on Friday. The third quartile levels are between 4368.99-4388.60 while the three highest outliers sit between 4426.30-4445.64. A strong majority of duration models have Minute wave 3 lasting 4 hours or less. The only other pocket of strength is at 8-9 hours long. At the very least, it is already 5 hours and is either complete, or will complete within the first few hours of trading on Monday. No matter what, it appears the next movement should be downward. Unfortunately, this downward movement is required for both models and the only difference is the first theory would see continued declines into Intermediate wave 5, and the latter theory would see continued upward movement after a Minor wave B decline concludes. Tomorrow likely has three possibilities: (1) The index opens down in the first hour before it climbs up toward 4330 and end Minute wave 3. (2) The index moves up toward 4330 and end Minute wave 3. (3) The index moves down and does not recover on Monday. The market will then move downward to complete Minute wave 4 likely lasting at least the remainder of Monday and possibly beginning of Tuesday. After Minute wave 4 completes, Minute wave 5 and Minor wave A will end somewhere between 4340-4370 before midday Wednesday. Minor wave B would then take the market down until late Thursday or early Friday. Minor wave C will take the market upward into the middle to end of next week around 4385. I plan to continue monitoring and updating throughout Intermediate wave 4. The current placement of Minute wave 4, Minor waves A & B, and Intermediate wave 4 are nominally placed and not the final forecasted placement. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Up early Friday, well off highs at endNow that Minor wave 3 has likely ended (62 hours later), the index is well into Minor wave 4 up. We could even be nearing the end of Minute wave A. Historical data indicates Minor wave 4 could last 21-36 hours with a final top around 4350-4387. It is possible the index is already in Minuette wave 5 of Minute wave A inside of this Minor wave 4. Looks like Minuette wave 5 will last about 4 hours max and the first hour has already ended with Thursday's close. Strong model agreement of the top around 4340-4348 within the first few hours of trading on Friday. This could be achieved with a probable gap up to open, but all gains will likely be given back over the rest of the day and early hours on Monday. The final top for Minor 4 will likely be achieved next week. More analysis, data, and levels will be available by the weekend once Minute wave A has truly ended. More great insight and datastreams to come.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
2
Early Gains Friday Followed By More RedNOTE: All times eastern. Current position is SubMillennial 1, Grand Supercycle 5, Supercycle 2, Cycle C, Primary 1, Intermediate 3, and likely Minor wave 2. As we likely settle into Intermediate wave 3, it is time to find the potential end of Minor wave 1. To recap: Intermediate wave 3 (magenta/purple numbers) is comprised of 5 Minor waves. Each Minor wave (yellow numbers) is comprised of at least 3 Minute waves (green numbers), while the impulsive waves 1, 3, and 5 are made up of 5 waves. I have taken the current wave breakout and identified Minute waves 1 and 2 while maintaining a decent idea of where Minute wave 3 ended which was during the 1230-1330 trading hour on September 6. Based on the completed data from the likely Minute waves 1 and 2, I begin to forecast what Minute wave 3 can do. Based on the most specific historical dataset for Minute wave 3s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 3s, the minimum movement extension is 121.69%, with quartiles (pink levels) of 161.2%, 200.07%, and 300.76%. Strongest model agreement for duration of Minute wave 3 is a tie of 3 or 14 hours long, with secondary agreement at 4, 12, 19, or 20 hours. The next dataset is slightly broader and applies to waves ending in 1313. The minimum historical movement extension is 107.15%, with quartiles (light blue levels) at 129.54%, 178.48%, and 265.83%. The duration models have strongest agreement at 2 hours long, secondary is 4 hours, third is 5, fourth is 11, 14, 16, or 20. The broadest dataset is based on waves ending in 313 with extension quartiles (yellow levels) of 145.98%, 180.89%, 260%. Strongest model agreement is generally less than four hours long, while fourth strongest agreement is 12 hours, and fifth is 8 hours. My current placement of Minute wave 3’s endpoint was during hour 11 at 4442.38 and it is based on the wave 3 of 3 signal obtained during the 15 minute trading window at 1100 on September 6 as seen below. This is likely Minuette wave (white numbers) 3 inside of Minute wave 3 Marking this the end of Minute wave 3 would place the end of Minute wave 4 in the final hour of trading from September 6. The next question is what should Minute wave 5 look like? Based on the most specific historical dataset for Minute wave 5s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 3s, the minimum movement extension is 100.27%, with quartiles (pink levels) of 110.26%, 132.685%, and 149.24%. Strongest model agreement on duration is at 9 hours, with secondaries at 2, 3, 6, 10, and 15, third at 18 hours. Fourth most agreement is at 1, 4-5, 7, and 11 hours. The next dataset is slightly broader and applies to waves ending in 1315. The minimum historical movement extension has not changed while quartiles (light blue levels) are 107.03%, 121.73, and 141.35%. The duration models have strongest agreement at 4 hours, second at 2 hours, third at 9, fourth at 1, 11, & 12, with fifth at 3 & 5 hours. There is a chance the opening drop in the first hour of trading on September 7 ended Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1 based on the upward drift of trading during the rest of the day. If Minute wave 5 has not ended, it would be 7 hours long with more downside expected. I will conduct one final analysis due to most duration targets not fitting this narrative indicating the market is likely in Minor wave 2 upward. What will Minor wave 2 look like? Based on the most specific models Minor wave 2 could have a minimum movement retracement of 17.45% with quartiles of 31.03%, 48.98%, 60.38%. Duration models have strongest agreement at 2, 4, 6, and 12 hours long, with secondaries of 3 or 10 hours. The next slightly broader dataset places the quartile retracements at 11.80%, 38.26%, and 55.24%. The duration models agree the most at 21 hours, with secondaries at 7, 8, 10, 12, and 15 hours. Since 21 hours was the length of wave 1, it is not likely in this instance. The final dataset places quartiles at 27.66%, 43.675%, and 61.32%. Duration models agree the most at 21 hours, secondary at 10 hours, third at 3 or 5 hours, fourth at 4, 7, or 8, with fifth at 14 hours. It is possible Minor wave 2 also ended in the final hour of trading on September 7, but confirmation will not occur until noon on September 8. It is possible the market opens high early on Friday but returns to decline by the afternoon. I should put out the Minor wave 3 analysis this weekend. Looking ahead August CPI and the Fed could be interesting catalysts for the rest of Intermediate wave 3 down. Minor wave 3 could last until Monday of Fed week followed by Minor wave 4 drifting upward until the Fed speaks on that Wednesday. Minor wave 4 could top before that day ends and then the declines should continue for the following week and a half of September. A government shutdown could occur on September 30, and markets have typically been bullish during shutdowns so this should help spur the short-term October recovery.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Time to test next theoryNOTE: All times are eastern time zone IF we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3, it is currently projected to last 154 to 174 hours with strongest model agreement at 168 hours. Historically, Minor wave 1s inside of Intermediate wave 3s move between 17.7%-34.14% of the larger wave’s movement. For example, if Intermediate wave 3 moves 168 hours, Minor wave 1 should last at least 17.7% of that duration which is 29.74 hours which rounds to 30 hours. 30 hours from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 on August 24 places the estimated bottom for Minor wave 1 on or after 1130 on August 30. The higher end of the range would place the bottom before 34.14% of 168 hours (57.36 hours, rounded to 57) which is 1030 on September 6. Similar historical data is applied to attempt in finding the bottom of Minor wave 1. Intermediate wave 3 is projected to end between 4120-4200. Minor wave 1 tends to account for 34.1%-56.62% of the larger wave’s movement. If the bottom is closer to 4160, Intermediate wave 3 would drop a total of 298.30 points and Minor wave 1 would likely end between 4289.39-4356.59. THINGS TO WATCH NEXT: Main hypothesis: These estimates have created a possible target box to determine the end of Minor wave 1. If this box is accurate, the bottom early today could be the end of Minute wave 1 and the upward movement afterward could be Minute wave 2. This would obliviously indicate next week goes lower than today’s low. If Minute wave 1 ended today, historical data should put the end of Minute wave 2 in the following area. Most specific models have quartile retracements at 31.22%, 45.73% and 78.52%. with strongest duration at 3 hours and secondary duration at 4 hours. Next dataset places quartile movement retracements at 26.14%, 40.25%, and 60.26%. Duration forecasts point to 4 hours, with secondary agreement at 1 or 8 hours, and third at 2 hours. The broader dataset points to quartiles of 28.18%, 44.4%, and 69.26%. Duration is strongest at 8 hours with secondary at 2 hours, third at 4 hours, fourth at 1 hour, and fifth at 3 hours. Current stats for this possible Minute wave 2 have it at 4 hours long as of 1510 on August 25th. The high so far is above the 60.26% retracement level. If this is Minute wave 2, it is likely near the end. Hypothesis 2: It is also possible Minor wave 1 ended with the low today. Next week would still have red, but the end of Intermediate wave 3 is likely much sooner than the end of September. Hypothesis 3: It is also possible the historical data is wrong and the end points for Minor wave 1 are someone completely different. Additional possibilities place the market outside of Intermediate wave 3 altogether. Hypothesis 4: The market could still be working through Intermediate wave 2 which would mean a new high above 4458.30 occurs next week. Hypothesis 5: The market could also be in a completely different place than Intermediate waves 2 or 3 causing unknown future gyration. Watching the next 2-3 trading days should rule out some theories.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
12
August 29 forecast: down early, end upBLUF: Down early tomorrow, finish up for the day, next possible near-term market top on Thurday. NOTE: All times eastern. The leading theory that does not bust everything has the index possibly back in Intermediate wave 2 and near the end of it. The far-right side has the levels of interest previously identified for Intermediate wave 2’s possible movement. All median levels have been surpassed and the maximum level on the most specific dataset is the next target at 4521.44. Remaining duration targets for Intermediate wave 2 are 56 and 62 hours. Hour 56 is the first hour of trading on August 29 while hour 62 is the final hour of trading on that day. If the analysis below is correct, the top would likely occur closer to hour 62. The first projection to work on is the end to Minor wave C based on the location of Minor waves A and B in yellow letters. The levels to monitor are on the far-left side of the chart. The most specific historical durations yet to occur are at 24 and 40 hours. Hour 24 which is plausible and would occur on or before 1430 tomorrow afternoon. Hour 40 would be the final hour of trading on Friday September 1. The movement extensions point to a minimum of 87.26%, median of 111.365% and maximum of 224.28%. The next set of slightly broader wave data points to durations of 24 and 26 hours after the strongest agreement at 34 hours. The strongest model agreement resides with 34 hours, however, this was the length of wave A and not likely the duration here. Frequently, in shorter duration micro waves, the relationship between waves A and C can be 1:1. Minor wave A in this case was much longer than those observed in micro waves and not necessarily the sought after endpoint here. Hour 26 would be the first hour of trading on Thursday. The quartile movement extensions are 110.40% (first quartile), 126.14% (median), 126.49% (third quartile). All of these have been surpassed at this time. The next historical target is 132.33% and max historical for this dataset is 212.58%. The broadest dataset points to 24 or 34 hours for duration, with 34 hours possibly being ruled out as mentioned above. The quartile extensions are 110.54%, 126.49%, and 172.42%. The next wave to attempt to place is Minute wave 3 (small green numerals) based on the probable completions of waves 1 & 2. Wave 3 could be complete, but it is better to see where it should complete instead of calling the most recent bar an endpoint. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 6, 11, or 12 trading hours. Currently Minute wave 3 is believed to be at 9 hours. Hour 11 is the second hour of trading on August 30. Wave 3s inside of wave Cs tend to be large and the historical quartiles for the most specific wave data has a minimum move of 128.71%, first quartile of 148.98%, median at 293.64%, and third quartile at 310.56%. It is unlikely the median would be hit in this case, but the first quartile has already been exceeded. The next set of slightly broader data points to a duration of 6 hours, with secondary agreement at 10-15 hours. The movement extension quartiles are 127.17%, 198.80%, and 273.68%. The final dataset has strongest model agreement for duration at 6 hours, then 12 hours, 24 hours, and then 8 and 10 hours. The quartile levels are similar to the ones from the last dataset. Based on this data, either wave 3 has topped and the market will move down for a few hours into Minute wave 4, or the market will move up to start and then down into wave 4. Once waves 3 and 4 complete tomorrow. If the market moves up toward 4510 and then down to 4485, Minute wave 5 could last around 4-6 hours based on historical data. Additionally, there is a possible prior support/resistance line around 4527/4528 that could be an interesting test. Minute wave 5 inside of Minor wave C tends to account for 31-55% of Minor wave C’s movement. If wave C tops at the potential 4527 resistance, this would mean Minor C could move 53.34 to 94.85 points. 53.34 points added to a hypothetical bottom at 4485 would place the top around 4538. This would mean a Minute wave 4 bottom around 4475 would be more likely to allow Minute wave 5, Minor wave C, and Intermediate wave 2 to top at 4527. Depending how long it takes Minute wave 4 to find a bottom, the end of Minute wave 5 would more likely occur on Thursday. The RSI is high and tomorrow's wave 4 will help it come down a bit before the next near-term market top.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
5
Here is the latest wave 3 path downwardIt is time again to map Intermediate wave 3 IF Intermediate wave 2 finally finished (again). Specific models point to a possible extension (pink lines) between 135.64% and 165.83% of Intermediate wave 1. Model durations could be 138, 147, 155, or 172 hours. While still specific, but slightly different wave relationship data is considered (light blue lines) next, this can be considered the more accurate dataset. Extension quartiles are 141.46%, 189.69%, and 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 112 or 150 hours. Secondaries scatter at 70, 96, 147, 155, and 174 hours. The broader dataset points to quartile extensions of 141.46%, 180.03%, and 314.88%. Strongest model agreement on duration is 150 hours with secondary at 112 and 224. These secondaries are likely inaccurate as they are 1:1 wave 1 and 1:2 wave 1 to wave 3. Smaller waves tend to have these relationships, however, longer waves (112 hours for wave 1) do not. Third agreement is 168 hours. Fourth is scattered 134-138, and 172-174. This means the bottom could occur late in September around 4120. The 5 wave structure down is a complete guess at not based on any data. The actual 5 wave structure will likely be crazier.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Still early in Bear Market, a reviewNOTE: All times are eastern. New assumption is Intermediate wave 3 has not begun yet. Most of the forecasts have been accurate, at least through Minor wave 3. My wave 3 indicators have also flashed at appropriate wave 3 endpoints. Today clearly confirms the index is not where I had it so going backwards and re-testing is the next step. I am first returning to Minute wave 4 in Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 1. I had this top at 1230 on August 4. The three questions to answer are where was Minor 3 expected to end, where was Minute 5 expected to end and where do they overlap? The most specific data fails to specify a duration but suggests 12, 32, 52, and 56 hours. The minimum historical movement was 112.55% of wave 1, max is 408.88%, with a median at 247.84%. Slightly broader historical data points to a minimum of 121.16%, max at 285.18%, with median at 214.395%. The durations fail to strongly agree with lengths of 19, 32, and 48 hours. The broadest dataset referenced points to quartile extensions (1st, median, 3rd quartile instead of minimum, median, maximum) of 142.54%, 181.715%, and 242.61%. Model durations agree the most at a duration less than 10 hours with secondary and tertiary agreements at 32 and 48 hours respectively. My first questionable placement for the endpoint of Minor wave 3 based on the actual movement is between 1030 on August 8 or 1130 on August 9. The August 8th position was 43 hours into Minor wave 3 and the August 9 position would have been 51 hours. Now for application of Minute wave 5 inside of Minor wave 3 endpoints. The most specific data has a tight window with a minimum extension of 131.06% and maximum of 166.07%. The durations lack strong model agreement but note 9, 12, 16, 21, or 32 hours. The next set of slightly broader historical data has quartile extensions at 112.85%, 133.75%, and 166.07%. Models agree the most at 4 hour duration, second most at 5 hours, third at 9 hours, then 16, 19, and 12 hours. The broadest dataset used has quartile extensions at 117.88%, 134.35%, and 165.21%. Model agreement for durations beyond 8 hours agree the most at 16 hours. Additional model agreement in descending order is 11, 18, 19, 13, and 24 hours. Minute wave 5 likely lasted 12 or 20 hours. The 20 hour duration outlines 5 waves inside of wave 5, however wave 3 would be the shortest which is a potential red flag. I have placed the end of Minor wave 3 at 1030 on August 8. The levels and placement are viewable here: After computation of this point, Minor wave 4 would have then ended at the high during the first hour of trading on August 10. Next step is forecast where Minor wave 5 should end. Did it end before the open at the low on August 18, earlier, or not yet? An endpoint of August 18 would make Minor wave 5 42 hours long. The most specific set of forecasting data points to Minor wave 5 extending a minimum of 101% of Minor wave 3, a maximum of 165.28%, and a median of 108.58%. Duration agreements are difficult again, most is at 18 hours long, secondaries are spread at 33, 39, 52, and 64 hours. The next, slightly broader dataset has the minimum movement at 128.39%, maximum at 220.5%, and median at 147.93%. Forecasted durations are at 38, 45, 46, 48, 52 hours long. The final dataset from broader historical data has quartile extensions at 114.04%, 131.845, and 159.44%. Forecasted durations point to 43 hours long, with secondary at 52 hours. Next is 39 hours and then 32 hours.. A wave 3 indicator was triggered up to the bottom on August 18th which can be confusing. This indicator does fire at wave 3 endpoints, however, it also signals the end of waves 2, 4, and B. Sometimes it does indicate the end of wave 1 when quick movement occurs. August 18 triggers a wave 3 indicator on the daily and hourly charts which doesn’t provide great clarity, but does indicate a sudden drop on a daily level too. All highlighted levels in this analysis point to much shallower levels than the achieved low on August 18, however, a majority of the duration models suggest the actual length of 42 hours could be accurate. Here is application of these levels and placement of Intermediate 1 at the low on August 18: If August 18 was the de facto end of Intermediate wave 1, what would Intermediate wave 2 look like? The most specific historical data points to movement retracement quartiles of 28.26%, 41.09%, and 68.49%. Length forecasts agree the most at 27 hours while the secondaries are a broad tie at 26, 29, 31, and 42, hours. The next dataset has quartile levels of 32.13%, 51.87%, and 55.28%. Strongest model agreement for duration is 112 hours (which was the length of Intermediate 1, an unlikely). Secondaries are scattered at 26, 32, and 62 hours. The final broader dataset has quartile retracements 39.70%, 55.28%, and 71.83%. Model duration agrees the most at 112, with secondary at 37, 56, or 75 hours. Third agreement is heavy in the 22-37 hour range. Lastly, I have redrawn trendlines for the top and bottom of the overall downward trend. At the time of writing, the index has a current top from the 1330-1430 trading hour on August 23 which also coincides with the top trendline. Furthermore, the duration is 25 hours and the top matches the 39.70% quartile retracement mentioned above. A few more hours are required to see if all this analysis is correct and IF Intermediate wave 2 has just ended. My models are only as good as the information entered into the system. The cause for the misjudgment last night is likely related to in the moment wave assignment. Hindsight and broader review of data makes the future reads stronger. I have zero doubt the market is in the early innings of a second bear market correction. If Intermediate wave 1 indeed lasted 112 hours, the original endpoints from this forecast: point to the market bottom being later in 2024 and deeper than 2700 instead of September 2024 around 2800.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Remaining on course if Wednesday is redHere is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart is the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5). Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 4330 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 4356. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 4372.61, 4654.45, and 3rd quartile at 4326.75. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 4370.16, median at 4352.58, and the third quartile was near 4328. THIS WEEK If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 4240 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 4330. A drop to 4330 tomorrow would only be a 1.3% loss. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go further. For now I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 4395 but still likely to occur midday Friday. THEORY BUSTERS A rise above 4400 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 4418.59 would place use back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Down Big After Monday?We are likely still in Minor wave 4 moving upward. It was originally forecasted to last 7 to 10 to 13 hours. The 7th hour will be the first hour of trading on Monday. The 5 minute chart has a potential wave structure so far if we are inside of Minuette wave 3 inside Minute wave C upward: The market could open upward or move up in the first hour of trading. The median historical models are pointing to a high around 4420, I am not sure it will go that far based on the amount of completed movement already but this is definitely a wait and see situation. I am more ready for the next decline which could begin as soon as tomorrow. For now I am projecting Minor wave 4 to end before 1330 eastern time tomorrow at a high of 4405. I am doing this to forecast the final Minor wave 5 bottom. This would mean Minor wave 4 lasted 10 hours, gain 69.69 points for a movement retracement of 44.96%. The most specific models (pink lines) for Minor wave 5s in Intermediate wave 3s in Primary wave 1s is pointing at a minimum movement extension of 158.43% which is 4244.73 and aligns with one of the forecasted Intermediate wave 3 bottoms of 4248.04. The median and third quartile extension point to a low around 4204-4210. These models also agree on a length of 25 hours which puts the low at this Friday. This is pointing to at least a 160 point drop in 4.5 days which would likely require constant bad news this week. Second most agreement on length is only 11 hours which would be even more steep. The next set of models (light blue) on slightly broader data has a wider movement range between 110.57%-191.67% with the median at 167.775% or a bottom at 4230.25. There is not a strong agreement on duration as it is spread between 6-27 hours. The next broader dataset (yellow lines) have a much higher bottom than the specific models as the range 4237.71-4307.59. Model agreement on duration is quite spread out as well with 22-27 hours carrying interest while larger agreement can be found in the 7-15 hour range. Monday is quiet on the scheduled economic data front which could allow the upward drift. Tuesday has home sale figures for July along with Fed speakers. Any mention of further rate hikes is likely unwelcomed news, especially for tech and high debt companies. Wednesday is mortgage numbers, building permits, manufacturing PMI and new home sales along with energy stockpiles. Thursday is jobless claims and durable goods orders for July and Jackson Hole kicks off on Friday with consumer sentiment numbers coming in within the first hour of trading. Highlights of the analysis are a minimum 160 point drop at some point this week. I originally thought slightly unmanageable but we are finishing an Intermediate wave 3 which will have more steep movement and the economic data along with the Federal Reserve speeches are the perfect fuel for such an event.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Can we end up tomorrow?We are either still in Minor wave 3 down or may have begun Minor wave 4 up. Based on the current data, Minor wave 4 should last 7 to 10 to 13 hours. The 7th hour is near the close on Friday and the other targets would be Monday. After Minor wave 4 up is completed, Minor wave 5 should take the market down some more to newer lows next week. Minor wave 3 so far has extended 192% beyond Minor wave 1 which is very close to the original targets. In fact I was only off by an hour in placing the end time for Minor wave 3 (if it is actually finished of course). The retracement levels in the middle relate to Minor wave 4 potential endpoints. The pink levels are the most specific datasets, light blue are slightly less specific and then yellow goes more broad. Best forecast right now is a top between 4410-4420 by midday Monday
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Wave 3 Already?The selloff at the end of the day is exactly what was needed to maintain the projected top of Minor wave A. However, it is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 have now completed. This means Minute wave 3 could take the market up above 4515 tomorrow before cooling off into Minute wave 4. Minor wave A and Minute wave 5 end points have been updated based on the close and are a little higher than the initial projections assuming Minute wave 3 is tomorrow and sees the index climb above 4510-4520. The other major update is the final endpoint for Intermediate wave 2 up appears to fall no later than the end of trading hours on Tuesday. We will see how the trade goes tomorrow and possibly issue an updated forecast tomorrow night. The likely Minute wave 3 movement extension levels are on the left and should be finished tomorrow. The retracement levels for Intermediate wave 2 are on the right. Light blue levels are based on most specific historical waves to the wave being studied. Yellow levels are slightly less specific historical data, and white levels are based on the broadest data. This should be the trade assuming the CPI report is viewed as a positive report (even though the data is almost old news at this point and not accounting for the recent significant rise in fuel prices).
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
3
Generally Up Until TuesdayWith Intermediate wave 1 likely in the books, I have projected the top for Intermediate wave 2. It won't be as high as originally thought. Minor wave A could end tomorrow or Friday and wave B could end Friday or Monday. The end looks like maybe Tuesday based on historical data. Intermediate wave 1 ended about an hour late today but the market roared after the bottom per analysis: The move up this afternoon almost ran the whole length of Minor wave A's expectation so a cool off today may continue to provide room for gains tomorrow. The inflation read still appears to be a catalyst for gains, but maybe 20-30 points early on Thursday is not a significant jump or confidence in the reported numbers which the pundits may add the context of fuel prices having gone up after the end of July. This realization should led the market down into Minor wave B temporarily and then some sort of short rally should occur Monday/Tuesday. The next drop should be another 150-300 pointer. The projected bottom for this first Primary wave 1 down right now is early October, however, based on the ending point of Intermediate wave 1, it is possible the bottom is October remains above 4050 AND the final market low toward the end of 2024 could remain above 3100 based on the analysis here:
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Early High on Friday Followed By New Weekly Low Tomorrow?If we are in Intermediate wave 1 down, we are likely near the end of Minor wave 4 up. Here is confirmation of wave 3 of 3 with the pink bars aligning in the bottom indicator at Minute wave 3 (green) inside of Minor wave 3 (yellow): There is a chance Minor wave 4 up has finished and was only 2 hours long. While the other likely option and one pursued in this chart is that Minute wave B has likely finished or could finish near the open. If Minute wave B ended with the low from August 3rd, then wave C will likely conclude within the first 3 hours of trading on August 4th. Strongest model agreement has wave 4 lasting 6 hours which would mean the top occurs within the first hour of trading. Secondary and tertiary models point to a likely maximum length of 8 hours (the third hour of trading on August 4th). The possible reversal levels are based on the following datasets in order from most specific to current wave location to more broad datasets. Light Blue levels are possible locations of market top tomorrow Yellow is slightly less specific than light blue White is most broad dataset The muted pink color represents specific data for Minute wave 4s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 1s. Basically the high tomorrow will occur within the first or second hour of trading and not go above 4550. Most conservative zone for the top is between 4524-4536. If the high from August 3rd is not surpassed on August 4th, the market will likely head down (and is already) into the final wave 5 of Intermediate wave 1. Initial loose projection is for this near-term market bottom to occur next week. Once confirmation of Minor wave 4's endpoint is recorded, Minor wave 5 will be projected.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
6
Will we ride wave 5 up for 4 days?Similar to last night, the market appears to have hit its cue for a more convincing bottom today. Using the 3918 bottom as the end of Intermediate wave 4 until proven otherwise, we will begin to look at the end of Intermediate wave 5 and Primary wave A inside of this Cycle B. Based on waves ending in 2BA5, the models agree the most that wave 5 could last 10 days, with the second most agreement at 1, 3, 14, and 32 trading days in length. The quartiles for movement extension off Intermediate wave 3 are 114.64%, 159.625% (median), and 204.63%. These are the blue levels on the chart above and they respectively correlate with 4159.42, 4340.42, 4521.50. Based on historical waves ending in BA5, the models agree the most on wave 5 lasting 4 days, then 10 days, while the next tie at 1, 2, 3, 11, and 18 days. The quartiles for movement extensions are at 114.64%, 116.69%, 155.66% which brings the values closer to my original forecasts around 4200. Respectively the news levels are 4167.66 and 4324.46 while being the yellow lines above. Lastly, the valuable while less precise data is based on waves ending in A5. Models agree with 2 days first, then 3 days, 10 days, 4 days, 19 days, and a solid tie at 1, 5, 9 and 11 trading days for potential lengths. The quartiles are slightly less while the third quartile repeats at 155.66%. First quartile is 112.36% (4150.24) and the median extension is only 119.84% (4180.34). Most of the targets fall below 4200 which keeps the top within 250 points of today’s low. Even 250 points in 5 days or less is a tall feat and unlikely as the next inflation report waits around the corner. Trendline resistance is decreasing quickly and is all below the prior Intermediate wave 3 top. This could insinuate three scenarios. 1) Where I marked the end of Intermediate wave 3 could be the end of Intermediate wave 5 and we are only heading lower from here. 2) The trendline proves a solid resistance and we do not take out the prior high at 4100.51. 3) We briefly break above the trendline resistance forming a bull trap and hitting other levels of resistance between 4150-4250. If the first case is true, the declines should continue tomorrow, and we will not head toward 4100 this week. The second case could hold true if we slowly move upward without conviction. The third case would likely require larger movements over the next two days to even have a chance at holding true. Regardless we shall see which one occurs. My initial call of Intermediate wave 5 lasting 5 days does not appear to be an option from the models, even though 3 days for Intermediate wave 4 was not a strong choice I stuck with it. The models had strength at 2 and 3 days in length, but we need to at least get above 4100 which is nearly 160 points from today’s close. That would equate to a 100% retracement of Intermediate wave 3 which is rare. There is a strong pocket of data placing the top between 4150-4180 which is where I will target. Three days is not enough time, so I think it takes at least 4. Four days will be sometime next Monday, which still puts the top before the pre-market release on Tuesday of the latest inflation reading. If the days and levels hold true, we are looking for an average daily gain of 52-60 points per day. We likely wont get those gains each day so some would have to leap beyond that. If these gains do not begin tomorrow we are either delayed or the inflation report WILL NOT be the downward catalyst. Let us see what tomorrow brings!
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Time to forecast the quick run upIn addition to wave theory I have developed a line theory of sorts. I draw lines based on only two points to judge support, resistance, or potential trends. I personally do not call things a trend until 3 occurrences are observed so marking these lines based on two points are not a trend. I draw the following: Red lines = Beginning of wave 1 to top of wave 2 generally contains entire impulsive wave. Green lines = End of wave 3 of 1 to end of wave 5 of 1 generally gets end of wave 5 of 3. Yellow lines = Beginning of corrective wave (A1) to end of wave C3 generally gets end of corrective wave (C5). Blue lines = End of Micro 2 to end of Macro 2 or 4 confirms end to macro impulse. White lines = End of wave 2 to end of wave 4, break beyond confirms impulse is over. I have remained in the camp of still being in Intermediate wave 5 down for at least a few more weeks, but some of the Line Theory above along with Elliott Wave Theory has me thinking otherwise. There are two main reasons I believe Cycle wave A has likely ended. 1 - Some Elliott Wave (EW) theorists hold that Wave 4 cannot go into the same realm of Wave 1 which has now occurred as of Friday. Intermediate wave 1 ended with a bottom of 3886.75. While this level remained a solid resistance, it was broken on Friday and Intermediate wave 4 is now above it. While this is a principal or rule of EW theory to some, I have seen these broken multiple times in my studies that otherwise kept waves intact and I do not give strong consideration on its own. 2 - Two major breaks with my light blue lines. Minor 2 inside of Intermediate 1 to Intermediate 2 was broke on October 25. This would confirm the current impulse has ended. Second, the light blue lines from a micro 2 to a macro 2 or macro 4 are always downward when that is the direction of the trend Minor 2 inside of Intermediate 3 to the current position (assuming end of Intermediate 4) is nearly flat while barely downward in the moment. This is stemming from the Minor 2 top at 3907.07 to the current top of 3905.42. Monday will likely tip this line upward. Here is the chart of my old theory with the two violations. If we are still in Cycle A and Intermediate wave 4, we have retraced 65.93% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement which puts this into the final quartile based on historical data. New Theory - Cycle B The only two things I do not like about this theory is that Intermediate wave 5 inside of Primary 5 would have been quite short at only 6 days. Granted this tied the all-time minimum length so its not impossible. Secondly, my early top estimates are around 4600, however, our recent gains have us moving so fast that we could hit that mark well ahead of schedule. Granted we will swing up in Primary wave A, down in B and then back up to our final top during wave C. I plotted out the full length of the bear market back on July 4th ( ). At that time I forecasted the length to be around 813 from start to finish which would place the bottom around March 2025. I also plotted the bottom in October this year and next major top in the summer of 2023. On August 20th, I broke down what a bear market over 813 trading days would look like based on historical wave lengths and relationships ( ). Cycle wave A is was estimated to last around 25% of the length of Supercycle wave 2. This would place Cycle wave A ending around October 18th. As of now, the bottom was October 13th, which is only 3 trading days earlier than estimated. This implies the bear market bottom remains on track for around March 2025 for now. If we are in Cycle wave B now, this would mean the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand SuperCycle 5, SuperCycle 2, Cycle wave B and most likely Primary A, Intermediate 1, Minor wave 4. The full short reference to this point is 152BA14. Total stats for Cycle wave A had it begin at 4818.62 on January 4, 2022. It ended 195 trading days later at 3491.58. By October 13, 2022, the market had dropped 1327.04 from top to bottom which was a loss of 27.54%. Projection for Cycle wave B: Gain 1108.42 points over 190 days. LENGTH: Based on waves ending in 152B, the models weakly forecast the full length of Cycle B to last 29, 39, 65, 143 or 223 days in length. 142 days is near early summer estimates around May 10, 2023 while 223 days lines up with the late summer 2023 estimate near September 5. Based on waves ending in 52B, the same lengths are possible with the addition of 117, 146, and 165 days. The most model agreement is 195 days which would tie the length of Cycle A and end around July 26, 2023. Lastly, waves ending in 2B provide strongest model agreement at 98 days (March 23, 2023) followed by 195 days again. Waves ending in 52B tend to comprise 21-27% of the wave they reside inside. If the overall larger wave is around 810 days (new target based on Cycle wave A length), 21% could make Cycle wave B 170 days long while 27% is 218 days. Even though waves ending in 152B rarely last the same length or longer than the wave A that precedes them, I will place the estimate at 190 days for now. GAIN: Based on waves ending in 152B, the first quartile of movement retracement of wave A is at 51.30% while the median retracement is 71.43% and third quartile is 72.07%. Wave B has retraced 113.17% of wave A before which would present new all-time highs for the index if that occurred here. Waves ending in 52B have a first quartile retracement of 67.02%, median at 81.39% and third quartile of 94.28%. Lastly, waves ending in 2B have a reduced first quartile at 58.61%, median at 76.51% and third quartile of 88.81%. FORECAST: For now, I am projecting a top around 4600 by mid to late July 2023. This would be a gain of 1,108.42 points, or 31.75% off the bottom, in nearly 190 days. Based on these projections I am plotting Primary wave A and wave B at the following locations. PRIMARY WAVE A tends to contribute 12.5 – 61.93% to the length of the overall wave it resides inside. With an overall projection at 190 days, this could make Primary wave A 22 – 117 days long. The first quartile is 23.77%, median is 35.19%, and third quartile is 52.91%. That equates to day lengths of 45, 67, and 100 respectively. Wave As in generally account for around 25% of the waves the reside in. We will bump the estimated length to around 50 days which aligns with the final trading day before Christmas. The movement tends to contribute 24-156% of the overall move with the first quartile at 49.86%, median at 73.33% and third quartile at 89.84%. These find levels could place the next market top in 2022 at 3756.60 (already past), 4044.29, 4304.38, 4487.44, and 5223.26. At the breakneck pace the market has travelled in two weeks, a top around 4375-4430 is most likely. PRIMARY WAVE B tends to contribute 8 - 50% to the length of the overall wave it resides inside. The potential lengths based on the minimum, quartiles, and maximum would be 15, 24, 41, 60 and 95 days long. Additional datapoints can provide more numbers when considering the historical relationships between waves A and B. Wave A tends to be at least twice the length of wave B pitting the potential median length of this wave B near 22 days long. When considering the first quartile relationship wave B could be longer at 66 days. There is a Federal Reserve meeting at the beginning of February which would be approximately 25 days into wave B and another in late March at 59 days into wave B. We will plot the bottom of B at the latter meeting for now as the Federal Reserve should be able to see some inflation improvement from the 2022 rate hikes and the legislative agenda of a new Congress. Wave B’s movement is likely to make up 18-45% of the larger wave which would take it to roughly today’s trading prices. Coincidently, in March 2023 this would be around the market’s current resistance line. The line that began at the beginning of the bear market with the second point at the end Primary wave 2 is roughly the same as the line from the end of Primary wave 2 and Primary wave 4. These have been resistance lines for the market thus far, but once we break above them, they are likely to become new support levels. This would see wave B lose about 600 points or 13% over 59 days in the first quarter of 2023. These dates and levels will change as more data comes in from Primary wave A and line theory is plotted as well. The final set of projections will be the intermediate waves inside of Primary wave A. Wave 1 could last 5-10-13 days based on the quartiles and it is currently at 11 days. I project it to currently be in the final leg of Minor wave 5 with the Federal Reserve likely being the top and end of Intermediate wave 1 at 14 days long. The quartiles could deliver Intermediate wave 1 gains of 280-336-677 points. So far we have gained 413.84 which is above the median and we are not done yet. 677 points is possible placing the top around 4168 which is another 200 points up over 3 days. However, my line theory could place the top around 4030 which is just over 100 points from Friday’s close. Early guess is folks believe the Fed is taking a breather while my analysis is telling me they are about to do something unexpected set to temporarily shock markets. Wave 2 could last 1-4-5-8-17 days based on minimum-quartiles-maximum. The ratio of wave 1 length to wave 2 narrows the field to 2-5-11 days long. I will plot it around 5-6 days for now. The market could be looking at a drop of 172-220-358 based on the quartiles for movement inside of the larger wave while movement based on 1:2 ratios points at quartiles of 295-367-452. I will plot around a 330 drop for now. This places the bottom the day after election day. The market will likely rejoice if there is guaranteed gridlock in Washington. This is a perfect place to begin an expansive wave 3 rally. The data gets looser the more estimated variables deeper we get so I won’t get too specific yet. Based on contribution to larger wave, wave 3 could last 8-14-19-22-27 days. Based on relationship to wave 1 it could last 7-16-23-35 days and based on it relationship to wave 2 it could last 9-33 days. I will plot it around 17 days for now. CPI release would be 23 days deep so that is something to consider as well. The gain could take us up near 4300. Wave 4 could see a drop down toward 4100 over 5 days before wave 5 finishes out Primary A before Christmas. Ultimately the run up will not be close to sustainable which will finally force everything down where it belongs. The billionaires stating the economy is not in a good position will be correct soon, but lets enjoy the run up while we can.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler