Ew_theories — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELY I have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY THREE: Current position is Primary wave 4 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 3 is on a faster path while the wave structure is similar to Theory 2. The preliminary bear market bottom would be in somewhere between Election Day 2024 and March 2025. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Primary wave 4 (SKY BLUE). It appears Intermediate wave A (PINK) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Intermediate wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Intermediate wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. Early models have Primary wave 4 lasting around 28 days, we are 9 days into it so far. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: This model appears to be riding election cycles. After Primary wave 4 ends, the market will swoon down again for a few more months with the bottom occurring around October/November this year. The 6-12 months afterward would move up before the final leg down takes the market to around 2400. The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. A 2-4 year correction makes more sense for this micro wave set we are likely in. CONS: Negatives are not glaring with this model at this time.

Theory 2 of 3 for SPX I have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY TWO: Current position is Intermediate wave 4 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 2 still has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Intermediate wave 4 (PINK). It appears Minor wave A (YELLOW) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Minor wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Minor wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle.

Theory 1 of 3 for SPX I have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY ONE: Current position is Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 1 has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see new lows below 3636.87 which was the recent low from June. IMPORTANT MOVES: Currently Intermediate wave 3 is the shortest between waves 1 and 3 at 31 days. This would force wave 5 to be less than 31 days which is set for July 19. Minor waves 1 and 2 as marked (YELLOW) have accounted for 17 of the 31 days. This means we must complete Minor waves 3, 4, and 5 within the next 14 days which will be a very tight timeframe. This theory will be ruled out if we break above 3945 before we break beneath 3636. The futures right now are pointing to this theory being disqualified. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle. There is also an Elliott Wave violation inside of Intermediate wave 3 (the span between PINK 2 and PINK 3). Minute wave 4 ends beyond where Minute wave 2 ends. This violation likely negates the Minor waves inside of Intermediate 3 and its end point.