Just saw this EWW bullish set upNo trade just looks like a good long set up. Good recovery. Looking like its finding support.
EWW
EWW MexicoWhen in doubt, short garbage. Candlesticks tend to work well on EWW, and the Mexican market goes down when the US market goes down.
2 day trade with weekly puts, though the safer play might be next week's puts.
USDMXN: Topped as per the weekly timeframe...I think the Peso will regain strength over time from this juncture. The weekly Time@Mode trend signal we had here expires next week but price already seems to be trending down in the daily timeframe, and broke a previous weekly low, so I think we're safe to assume the decline started already. The G20 talks and oil related news might be behind the strength in commodities, EM currencies and weakness in the dollar.
Either way, I'd like to have some exposure to oil and gold, at the very least, but also look into agricultural futures and related stocks, since the trade truce signaled strength might be seen in these markets. Another interesting market to monitor is tech, in particular $QCOM in the event of a merger...I'll be watching $SPY, since I fear it is a bit stretched, and might go back down, if it's still range bound and not trending.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Rebound IPCThis might be set for a rebound but trend has been down for a little more than a year, so I would not expect much. If this gets back above the blue doted trend line, it would be back into the longer term up trend.
Then it would be back in the middle term triangle and again wait for a break out either way. This only if above blue dotted line.
Update: Revisiting Gold & where I have beenI forgot to mention Mexico ETF EWW +17.75% & also short MXNUSD +10%
UPDATE: Mexico is on FIRE, EWW & USDMXN best optionsHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
UPDATE: A remake of USDMXN & EWWHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
THE WEEK AHEAD: EWZ, EWW, CPB, BOXThis week: three candidates for directionals and one nondirectional premium selling play ... .
CPB:
Although timing could have been better to catch the absolute bottom in this, implied volatility rank and background implied volatility remain quite high in this underlying (61/35). Given price weakness coupled with high implied volatility rank, I would think that a bullish assumption directional would be the way to go, with the most straightforward strategy being via short put. Pictured here is a "Wheel of Fortune," at-the-money short put that's paying 1.85 at the mid with a break even of 36.15. The basic strategy is to take the short put all the way to expiry and, if assigned, proceed to cover at or above your cost basis and work it as you would any covered call. Naturally, if price finishes above 38, you walk away with the entire premium.
Variations: 30 delta short put: Aug 17th 36, 1.05 credit at the mid, 34.95 break even.
EWZ:
The Brazil exchange-traded fund has absolutely been crushed, with price within 5% of its 52-week low. With a rank of 50 and background at 35, here's another play where you've got weakness coupled with volatility, so a bullish assumption play makes the most sense.
The Aug 17th 32 "Wheel of Fortune" pays 1.65 with a break even of 30.35; the Aug 17th 30 delta short at the 30 strike, .87 with a break even of 29.13.
EWW:
If you're already in Brazil, EWW (rank 65/implied 27) is also at the bottom of a fairly long term range between 43 and 56. Wheel of Fortune: Aug 17th 46 short put: 1.75 at the mid, 44.25 break even; 30-delta: Aug 17th 44, .98 credit, break even at 43.02.
BOX:
With earnings 25 days in the rear view mirror and high rank and implied (76/53), I'd probably opt for a Plain Jane nondirectional: the Aug 17th 24/32 is paying 1.78 with a 69% probability of profit, break evens at 22.22/33.78 (wide of the expected on both sides), delta of .72, and theta of 3.34. Defined risk variation: Aug 17th 22/25/31/34 iron condor is paying 1.26 (I had to bring in both sides a smidge because the highest strike in Aug expiry is currently at 34 ... ).
OTHER ACTIVE ALERTS:
TLT, short on retrace at 122 (downward skip month put diagonal; horizontal resistance) or TBT, long on retrace at 36 (upward skip month call diagonal; horizontal support).
XOP, short on retrace at 44.50 (downward skip month put diagonal; top of range).
UPDATE: USDMXN is a MASSIVE short, minimum 20% from highHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
61% Probability on EWW (Strangle)Yesterday We got a close above the 200 Moving average and EWW is right inside the Volume area, and right at the Point of control. So I expect two-way action between buyers and sellers, giving me a chance to make a neutral trade.
With EWW IV Rank at 57, I sold the 54/50 Strangle (30 Delta) that expires in February, to take advantage of the high volatility.
The trade:
30 Days to Expiration (2/16/2018)
Sold the 54 CAll
Sold the 50 PUTS
Credit receives $1.10 each
Max profit $110.00 for each contract
Probability of profit 61%
THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, SLB, KMI EARNINGS; XLU, SMH, IYR, EWW, VXXEARNINGS
The earnings on tap aren't looking very enticing to me, as I generally look at getting in on these where the implied volatility rank is >70% and the background implied volatility is >50%. However, they might be worth watching running into earnings to see if implied ramps up.
KMI (implied volatility rank 79/implied volatility 30) announces earnings on the 17th after market close. The January 19th expiry's implied volatility is at 40%, with the 26th's at 31.4% (a 27.5% potential contraction). Given the underlying's price, it's probably best to go short straddle. Unfortunately, the Jan 19th's 19.5 short straddle isn't paying much -- .70 at the mid, with break evens clear of the expected move. Given what that's paying, a defined risk play won't pay.
IBM (implied volatility rank 93/implied volatility 26) announces on the 18th after market close. January 19th's implied's at 43.2; the 26th's at 31.3 (38.0% potential contraction). The January 19th 157.5/170 short strangle (23 delta) is paying 2.30 at the mid; the 152.5/157.5/170/175 iron condor's only paying 1.49 (<1/3rd wing width), so would probably pass on a defined unless implied volatility frisks up running into earnings.
SLB (rank 100/implied 27) announces on the 19th before market open. January 19th's implied is 35.4 vs. Jan 26th's of 27.9 (26.9% potential contraction). The 19th's 76/80 short strangle's paying 1.07 at the mid. Defined -- not worth it.
NON-EARNINGS
Another area in which implied volatility rank makes potential plays look promising, but where background implied volatility isn't up to stuff. Currently, there are no exchange-traded funds whose implied volatility rank is in the upper one-quarter of so of where it's been over the past year and where background implied is greater than 35%.
For what it's worth, though, here are the top ones: XLU (73/15), SMH (59/23), IYR (57/14), and EWW (51/24).
VOLATILITY PRODUCTS
Recently I've been working VXX* in two ways: (1) "price agnostic," where I enter either a long put vertical or short call vertical when the next weekly expiry open on Thursday or Friday; and (2) on pops where the VXST/VIX ratio is >1.0 (the higher the better). Unfortunately, it's tough to forecast a pop (although I've seen people repeatedly make the attempt), so you just have to set up an alert to trigger on a VXST/VIX ratio print of >1.00 or a VVIX print of >110 and keep powder dry for when it happens.
* -- I've been waiting for UVXY to reverse split on the notion that a 1/2 strike of movement in an 8.67 (UVXY Friday close price) underlying is somewhat more of a heavy lift than a 1/2 strike of movement in a 25.85 one, even though UVXY is leveraged.
EEM/EWZ pairs trade (covered strangles)EWZ and the Emerging Markets ETF EEM have a strong correlation (Since EEM have 7.7% of brazil stocks). The correlation for the last year have been .92, and the last 30 days have drop to .40.
Today we got a strong move on EWZ of -3.18% at the time of the trade and -.64% on EEM. By trading one to the upside and the other to the downside I will look to reduce risk on this trade until time has passed enough to take my profits.
The trade is two Synthetic Covered Strangles
EEM 38.5/40.5 Calls for $1.92 credit
EWZ 38.5/35 Puts for $2.95 credit
In total we got $4.87 credit (1 to 1 ratio) and will look to close at $2.00.
I don't do a lot of these trades, but I find them very interesting so lets if in the next 30 days we can close for profits.
USDMXN: Long hereUSDMXN apparently has bottomed after a sizeable pullback, good to try the long side here. Start small first, risk 0.5%.
Additionally, $EWW looks a bit toppy here.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
The Peso has bottomed USDMXNI have been saying this on my blog for two weeks now calling for the Mexico bottom and the Peso bottom. I was ridiculed for shorting USDMXN at the 22 dollar level and look where we are now??
I expect this to continue to under 19.50 IMO.
OPENING: EWW DEC 16TH 39/45/45/50 IRON FLYPost-election, there isn't much out there exchange-traded fund wise with both high implied volatility rank/percentile and high implied volatility. This is one of them ... . (I've tried repeatedly to get into an EWW play, but just can't seem to get a fill at the mid price).
This isn't the most liquid thing in the world, so I'm going with the most liquid expiry -- the Dec 16th monthly.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 43%
Max Profit: $302/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $298/contract
Break Evens: 41.98/48.02
Notes: Will look to manage for 25% max profit ... .
WHAT I'M LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK (10/24) -- BANC, EWW, XBIFocus in the short term (which is 25-45 DTE for me) will be on ETF's, although opportunities could crop up with earnings (still hoping for a TWTR dip post-earnings to go long via short puts).
Here's what came up on my high IVR/IV screen:
BANC, IVR's 100/IV 100. Options, however, are crappy (monthlies only), but you can get something decent for a 20 delta short put if you're willing to go all the way out to Jan (bullish assumption). The drawback -- in addition to the fact that it only has monthlies -- is that it's a bank. Banks generally aren't known for high volatility, so if you get put the stock, it may be difficult to write calls for something decent to reduce your cost basis if vol collapses at some point going forward here. Things like short strangles or iron condors (which would be vol contraction plays) are cumbersome due to the unavailability of dollar wide strikes.
EWW (the Mexican ETF) IVR 97/IV 32. The general play on this has been bullish on the assumption that Hillary will win, since that's good for Mexico (Donald has said he'll rescind NAFTA, which would be bad for Mexico). I could see further upside if Hillary wins, although it may have priced some of that in already. The Dec 18th 47 short put brings in .70/contract at the mid (bullish assumption; straight premium selling or precursor to covered call). Although this is not the most liquid thing in the world, nondirectional strats like iron condors, short strangles, and iron flies are also workable here.
XBI (the biotech ETF) IVR 88/IV 40. Biotech's been getting a bit of whooping here, and it may not be over, since the notion is that Hillary's bad for pharma and for biotech. She's not keen on high drug prices and has vowed to "do something" to lower drug costs (good luck with that). In any event, the Dec 18th 52 short put brings in 1.07/contract at the mid. (Bullish assumption; straight premium selling or precursor to covered call). A short strangle or iron condor/fly are also doable here.
TRADE IDEA: EWW DEC 2ND 43.5/46.5/53.5/56.5 IRON CONDORWith a 52-week implied volatility rank of 100 and an implied volatility of 35, EWW -- the Mexican ETF, beckons for premium selling ... . Here, the iron condor brackets the ZigZag/Donchian channel indicated support/resistance at 48.22 and 54.25 nicely, with break evens for the setup above and below those marks.
Here are the metrics for the setup:
Probability of Profit: Unavailable*
Max Profit: $100/contract
Max Loss: $200/contract
Break Evens: 45.50/54.50
Notes: * -- Accurate probability of profit metrics are unavailable here in the off hours, probably due to after hours bid/ask in the underlying showing bid 44.12/ask 73.00/last 49.98. Look to manage at 50% max profit.
EWW monthly - Mexico appears to be bottomed - 10/10/2016We will keep it on the radar for the coming months, and would like to see further strength for confirmation.
TRADE IDEA: EWW NOV 18TH 46 SHORT PUTI've never played this particular broad market ETF, but it beats trading SPY et al. here, particularly since you can get a 1.00 in credit out of a short put in an sub-$50 underlying ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 76%
Max Profit: $101/contract
Max Loss: Undefined (it would be $4499 if the ETF went to zero and you did absolutely nothing)
Break Even: 44.99
Notes: I'm not going to be putting on a trade in this, since I think there's downside risk associated with U.S. elections. However, at the very least, it's worth watching here. The IV and therefore the premium is higher here than in SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA ... . The downside is that it is not quite as liquid as those instruments.
Mexican Stocks -17% In 6 Months, But Are Showing Signs Of LifeThe iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF has sustained its longest move above the 50-day EMA since September (prior to breakdown). If EWW is able to close above the 2015 resistance level at $60.50, look for a continuation to the $63-$65 area in the next 1-3 months. An initial stop loss on a stock position can be placed under $58. Option traders can consider buying the Apr 20 $60 calls or $60/$63 bull call spreads upon that confirmed breakout.
Top ten holdings in the ETF (62.85% of assets): America Movil, Grupo Televisa, Fomento Economico, Grupo Financiero Banorte, Cemex, Wal-Mart de Mexico, Grupo Mexico, Fibra Uno Admin., Grupo Financiero Inbursa, and Alfa
The Mexican economy has had to deal with plunging oil and peso prices in the previous months. Tepid results from Wal-Mart de Mexico and Coca-Cola FEMSA have reflected this too. While the economy has been growing in a roughly 2.5% range (in terms of GDP), economists are more positive for 2015. The collectively group see GDP at +3.2% for the year and Mexico's Ministry of Finance looks for 3.2%-4.2% growth.
