Downloading...
Download

Exchangerates

Can Turkey's Lira Dance with the Dollar?Turkey stands at a pivotal moment in its economic journey, navigating through the complexities of fiscal management and monetary policy to stabilize the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar. The nation has embarked on a strategic pivot towards domestic funding, significantly increasing the issuance of Turkish Government Bonds to manage soaring inflation and debt service costs. This approach, while stabilizing in relative terms, challenges Turkey to balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation, a dance that requires both precision and foresight. The Central Bank of Turkey's decision to cut rates amidst rising inflation paints a picture of calculated risk and strategic optimism. The bank is threading a needle between fostering economic activity and maintaining price stability by targeting a reduction in inflation over the medium term while allowing short-term increases. This policy shift, coupled with a focus on local funding, not only aims to reduce external vulnerabilities but also tests the resilience of Turkey's economy against global economic currents, including the impact of international political changes like the US election. Globally, the economic landscape is fraught with uncertainties, and Turkey's strategy of maintaining a stable credit rating while forecasting a decrease in inflation sets an intriguing stage. The country's ability to attract investment while managing its debt profile, especially in light of global monetary policy shifts by major players like the Federal Reserve and the ECB, will be a testament to its economic stewardship. This narrative invites readers to delve deeper into how Turkey might leverage its economic policies to not only survive but thrive in a fluctuating global market. The enigma of the USD/TRY exchange rate thus becomes a compelling study of economic strategy, where every policy decision is a move in a larger game of financial chess. Turkey's attempt to balance its books while dancing with the dollar challenges conventional economic wisdom and invites observers to ponder: Can a nation truly master its currency's fate in the global marketplace?
Long
by UDIS_View
How Exchange Rates Affect International BusinessesHow Exchange Rates Affect International Businesses Exchange rates directly affect the cost of goods and services in international trade and can have a substantial impact on a company’s revenue and profit margins. Foreign exchange risk refers to the potential financial impact caused by fluctuations in the value of currencies. Companies with cross-border operations are particularly sensitive to it. This FXOpen article looks at how changes in exchange rates influence different companies in general, why they can do it, and how they affect the operations of international business. Types of Exchange Rate Influence In essence, foreign currency exposure is driven by the uncertainty associated with the future exchange rates of two currencies and has a material impact on a company’s financial position. To gain a deeper understanding of the impact of this risk on businesses, it’s crucial to break it down into its primary types. Transaction Influence Transaction influence is a risk in international business that refers to the potential gains or losses arising from the conversion of one currency into another for immediate transactions. It arises from fluctuations in exchange rates between the time a transaction is initiated and the time it is completed. Imagine a British company invoices a European customer in euros but settles with the customer three months later. A shift in the EUR/GBP exchange rate during this period may noticeably change the final amount of funds received. Translation Influence Another aspect to think about is the relationship between currency risk and businesses that have subsidiaries in other countries. Translation influence, also known as accounting risk, primarily affects multinational corporations with affiliates operating in different currencies. It arises when these companies consolidate their financial statements by translating foreign currency assets and liabilities into the reporting currency. Fluctuations in exchange rates can lead to changes in reported earnings, which creates challenges for financial analysis and decision-making. Economic Influence Considering a more global risk, it’s vital to pay attention to the economy as a whole. The economic impact is long-term and can change a company’s overall competitiveness and value. It affects a company’s international investments and may influence its strategic decisions. For instance, the economic landscape can affect the relative prices of a company’s products or services. Thus, manufacturing in one country and selling in another may become unprofitable, and the company will have to find new markets. Factors Contributing to Exchange Rate Changes To better understand the foreign exchange risk in international business, let’s start with an examination of the factors that contribute to it. Three main areas to keep in mind are market movements, economic conditions, and political stability. Exchange Rate Volatility Exchange rate volatility is a foreign exchange market risk. You can track currency changes by looking at the movement of currency pair quotes on international exchanges and special platforms like TickTrader. Market players, namely large companies, banks, institutional investors, and traders, influence the quotes by their actions. When exchange rates are highly volatile, companies face greater uncertainty about the future. This may hinder forecasting and managing cash flows. Macroeconomic Factors Macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and economic growth are something that multinational companies need to keep an eye on. Changes in these factors lead to shifts in the value of currencies, directly affecting international businesses engaged in trade and investment. To keep abreast of global and local economic news, you can gather information from a variety of reputable sources and regularly check the economic calendar. Political Instability Political instability in a country can disrupt the stability of its currency. Sudden changes in government, politics, or geopolitical events can lead to fluctuations in the value of currencies, creating a corporate risk for companies operating in these regions. To keep up with developments, traders may read the news regularly and use the Political Stability Index. It is one of the indices developed by the World Bank, and it measures perceptions of the likelihood of the destabilisation of the incumbent government. Impact of Exchange Rate on International Businesses Now that we’ve explored the nature and contributing factors of the exchange rate effect, let’s examine how it can affect international businesses across various dimensions. Financial Implications - Revenue and profit fluctuations. Foreign exchange rates can affect a company’s revenue and profits. Fluctuations lead to unpredictable shifts in the value of international sales and could enhance or worsen a company’s financial performance. - Cash flow challenges. Cash flow management becomes more complex. Currency fluctuations can impede predicting the timing and amount of incoming and outgoing payments. This often results in cash deficits or surpluses, making it harder to meet financial obligations. Operational Disruptions - Pricing and cost issues. Another business risk of a company is that currency fluctuations may disrupt pricing strategies. It may be necessary to adjust prices frequently, which will negatively impact competitiveness and customer relations. In addition, changes in the cost of imported materials may increase the cost of production. - Supply chain disruptions. International companies typically rely on complex global supply chains. Disruptions will affect the cost of imports and make it difficult to manage contracts with international suppliers, potentially leading to delays. Strategic Considerations - Expansion decisions. Exchange rates can influence a company’s decisions to enter a new market and expand operations. Perceived influences related to certain currencies or regions can deter or encourage expansion plans. - Mergers and acquisitions. Companies should assess how currency fluctuations change the value of target companies. This is important since the results of the assessment will show the potential success and profitability of a merger or an acquisition. Final Thoughts Understanding the types of exchange rate effects, the factors contributing to them, and the potential impact on financial and operational performance is critical to effective management. Adopting sound strategies to mitigate the effects of currency fluctuations will enable companies to thrive in the global market. If you are interested in participating in global markets, you can open an FXOpen account and start trading. We offer forex pair and stock, index, ETF, crypto*, and commodity CFDs, so you can easily diversify your portfolio and minimise the business risk of your company related to exchange rates. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
Education
by FXOpen
4
How To Read Currency PairsHere's a quick and comprehensive guide on how you can read currency pairs as a forex trader! As usual my objective is to simplify all aspects of trading, so that even someone who has never seen a chart before, can make sense of the topic at hand. Let's get into it - Currency pairs are a combination of 2 different currencies and we can trade them based on how they are compared to each other in terms of price (weighted against each other). How can we use this to make money? 1. Understand the Exchange Rate Let's assume that the current exchange rate for EURUSD is 1.10, that means of €1 is valued at $1.10. 2. Buy Euros If you start with $1000 and you believe the exchange rate may increase in the future, it would be a good idea to convert your Dollars into Euros at the current rate. $1000 / 1.10 (exchange rate) = €909.09 3. Wait for Appreciation Now, let's assume the exchange rate increases to 1.15. This means that €1 is now worth $1.15. 4. Exchange Back to Dollars With your 909.09 Euros, you can convert them back into Dollars at the new exchange rate. €909.09 x 1.15 (new exchange rate) = $1045.45 So, in this example, you've potentially made a profit of $45.45 by anticipating and benefiting from a favorable change in the exchange rate. Major Currency pairs CAPITALCOM:EURUSD CAPITALCOM:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY OANDA:USDCHF OANDA:AUDUSD OANDA:NZDUSD FX:USDCAD Minor Currency Pairs FX:EURGBP OANDA:EURAUD FOREXCOM:GBPJPY OANDA:AUDJPY OANDA:NZDJPY FX:EURJPY OANDA:GBPAUD FX:AUDNZD OANDA:EURCAD FX:GBPCAD That's a mouthful to take in so I'll leave you there. Hope this post helps and as usual... Happy Hunting Predators 🦁🐯🦈
Education
by Apexfx_Alpha
The Carry Trade With the current aggressive interest rate hikes happening with some of the world's leading central banks due to inflation problems, we figured it would be an ideal time to discuss the carry trade. This post will go into further detail about the carry trade and how it works in the forex market. We will also discuss one of the most popular carry trades to take place in forex history and the risks traders should be wary of when trying to implement this strategy. What is the carry trade? The simple explanation of the carry trade is that a speculator borrows one financial instrument to buy another financial instrument. For example, let's assume that you go into a bank and borrow $10,000, which then charges you a 1% lending fee ($100). You then take that $10,000 and purchase a Treasury bond that pays you 5% a year. Your profit is 4% (minus commissions and other costs). Basically, you have profited from the difference in the interest rate. This is the carry trade in its simplest form. The carry trade in the Forex market The carry trade in the forex market is one of the oldest and simplest forms of forex trading strategies. It was first developed by fund managers to take advantage of the interest rate differentials between currency pairs. A carry trade occurs when you buy a high-interest currency against a low-interest currency. For each day that you hold that trade, the broker will credit you the interest difference between the two currencies (this difference is called the 'interest rate differential'), as long as you are trading in the interest-positive direction. To understand this further, let's give an example: In the forex market, currencies are traded in pairs (so if you buy USD/JPY, you are actually buying the US dollar and selling the Japanese Yen at the same time). You receive interest on the currency position you BUY and pay interest on the currency position you SELL. What makes the carry trade unique in the forex market is that interest payments take place every trading day based on your position. This is because technically, all positions are closed at the end of the trading day in the forex market. You just don’t see it happen if you carry your position overnight due to the fact that brokers close and reopen your position, and then they credit or debit you the overnight interest rate differential between the two currencies (this is also called a rollover or swap). The amount of leverage available from forex brokers has made carry trades very attractive in the forex market. Most, if not all, forex trading is margin-based, meaning you only have to put up a small amount of the position and your broker will put up the rest. Many brokers ask traders for as little as 1% or even less as margin to trade a position. Continuing from our above USDJPY example, let's assume that interest rates are 6% for the US dollar and 1% for the Japanese Yen (so the interest rate differential is 5%). Let us assume that you deposit $10,000 with a broker and decide to buy USDJPY with the intention to carry trade and earn +5% interest a year. Let's say the broker offers you 100:1 leverage and you want to purchase $10,000 worth of that currency. Since the broker is offering you 100:1 leverage, you would only require a 1% deposit for the position; therefore, you hold $100 in margin. Now you have an open USDJPY trade that is worth $10,000 and is receiving 5% a year in interest. To get a clearer picture of this, let's see the image below: What will happen to your account if you do nothing for a year? There are three possibilities. Let’s take a look at each one in the image below: Due to the 100:1 leverage being offered to you, in this scenario you have the potential to earn at least 5% a year from your initial $10,000, but there are huge risks to this (we will get to that later). The infamous AUDJPY carry trade During the early to mid-2000s, traders experienced near-perfect combinations of these conditions across numerous forex pairs, most popularly the AUDJPY. This particular FX carry trade involved going long on the AUDJPY. The Australian dollar has historically yielded higher interest rates than other global currencies. The Bank of Japan has been keeping interest rates low since the mid-1990s in an effort to revive the economy after a stock market crash caused a recession. The Bank of Japan has persisted with its approach to low interest rates, and in 2016, it announced negative interest rates. This means Japanese banks now pay interest on the cash they deposit with the Bank of Japan instead of earning interest on it. AUDJPY Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Differential 2001–2014 As you can see in the image above, the interest rate differential between Australia and Japan was consistently high. Due to the Australian dollar yielding a much higher return on investment compared to the Japanese yen, the situation provided retail traders and big institutions great opportunities for carry trading to occur with this currency pair and reaped huge profits from it. These conditions boomed, especially throughout the early to mid-2000s; however, this seemed to change just before the end of the 2000s. In 2008, with the global recession, the economic conditions surrounding Australian and Japanese investments changed as interest rates in Japan drifted slightly upward from near zero to just above zero, while interest rates in Australia fell considerably. As a result of both countries having their interest rates close to each other, the Japanese yen drastically appreciated against the Australian dollar, which would have caused traders huge losses when implementing the carry trade method during this period. You can see this in the chart below: AUDUSD 3-Month Chart Interest rates have changed since then: as of August 2023, Australia's interest rates are now back up to 4.10%, while Japan's interest rate remains at -0.1%. Risks of the carry trade The biggest risk in a carry trade strategy is the absolute uncertainty of exchange rates. For example, if a trader is buying a currency to profit from that currency pair's interest rate differential and the country of the currency cuts its interest rate unexpectedly, the exchange rate of that currency will most likely drastically fall, which can potentially cause the trader to suffer sudden and big financial losses. Due to this, it is important to look at more than just the interest rates on the currencies before you trade on the forex market. Additionally, if a country’s economic outlook does not look positive, the demand for that country's currency will decrease, especially if the market thinks that their central bank will have to lower interest rates to help their economy. Another important risk factor for traders to consider with the carry trade is that if substantial leverage is used to implement it, then big market moves against the trader's favour could result in losses that may cause margin calls, the position being automatically stopped out, or worse, losing more than your initial deposit and the trader's account ending up in a negative balance. Lastly, global markets and economies have still not fully recovered from the global crash of 2008. Carry trades are very difficult to do now with major forex pairs due to the majority of brokers no longer offering positive swaps on major pairs. Traders have been looking at some exotic currency pairs as viable options because some of their countries' interest rates are still high. Exotics such as the Mexican peso, the South African rand, and the Nigerian naira are all options that many forex brokers offer, with currency pairs featuring USD, GBP, EUR, and even JPY variations. However, exotic currency pairs can be extremely volatile and dangerous as traders are susceptible to experiencing big market moves constantly in both directions, which makes these currencies very unpredictable and can cause traders big losses. These currency pairs can also be very expensive to trade due to the high spreads and possible additional commission costs. 1 Month MXNJPY chart example: The above chart shows that traders have been looking at exotic currencies as alternative options to continue carry trades, though they pose very high risks and can be very expensive to trade. The carry trade, while potentially lucrative and rewarding, can be very dangerous, and you must consider all risk factors if you are looking to implement this trading method. Trading this way with major and cross-currency pairs is very difficult to do now, and we cannot stress enough that you must trade with absolute caution if you’re implementing the exotic currencies into your own carry trading strategy. That being said, we may get to a time again where carry trades are possible with major currency pairs as interest rates are going back up globally in an attempt to recover from the global inflation crisis. Forex brokers may be open again to offer traders positive swaps on majors and crosses. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
24
SGDMYR - Exchange RatesOn 20 Apr 2022, SGDMYR shot up to 3.1466. To most Singaporeans who have commitments in Malaysia or Malaysian who are earning SGD, is a no brainer to change their SGD to MYR. But that night at 10.25pm, right after my Live Session, I've told a group of entrepreneurs NOT to change their SGD to MYR just yet. If you could wait for a few days. On Fri, 22Apr2022 market close at 3.1538. Based on the candlestick pattern and the Harmonic Patterns formation, Bearish Crab Pattern, it would be a good idea to change some MYR that could cover your monthly expenses or commitment for the next 3-5months. It would not surprise me if the market retraces back to the 3.1255~3.0990 range when Market Open. Share this with your friends as they might benefit from this and there are a couple of hours for them to make the arrangements. Forex Trading doesn't always mean that one should only trade on the Spot Market, but you can benefit from your day to day expenses, your investment planning and such.
Short
by RaynLim
USDMYR Exchange RateLong shadow candles appear on the daily chart. Well, before you say anything, yes the candle isn't close yet, but it's a pretty good exchange rate. If you had earned from trading and the denomination is in USD, it is a good time to withdraw some profits. 4.2240 indeed is a great zone for profit-taking. You will be surprised, at how much more $$ it will bring you when you time your withdrawal. However, it is not a good time to pay using MYR for your USD commitment, SGD will be a better option(if you had stored SGD in advance). Never underestimate the importance of business planning from shifting your cashflow from 1 currency to another.
Short
by RaynLim
What moves exchange rates, and what exchange rates moveHere is a list of what impacts the strength of a currency, as well as the impacts this strength has on the currency country(ies). Things are of course more subtle than a simple excel list binary check. For example, some inflation is not automatically bad, it can be the sign of a country economic growth, and as it gets bad the relationship is not linear, inflation slightly high will not scare many investors and industrials, but when it gets to a really bad high value investors flee at an exponential rate which exacerbates the currency devaluation further. Where the currency goes it is said depends on where "the big boys" want it to go, in particular central banks. Capitalist countries look to increase profits, Communist/socialist countries seem to also like manipulating their currency which they use for propaganda purposes, to increase their control, fulfill their goals, and to increase their competitiveness so they may improve the lives of "the workers". But the "big boys" do not have full control. Ask the BOJ, ask the BOE governor from the early 90s. Here is the example - without getting into the details - of a bad everything horror story (no you can not short it they have capital controls): Another example, after the initial "safe haven" rally of the USD in March 2020 following the stock market crash, the dollar went into a big downtrend against European currencies: And a final example, China, the biggest holder of usdollars, has been selling its bags (public information), and their economy did much better in 2020 than the US one, the price has been unsurprisingly trending for over half a year now:
Education
by MrRenev
3
Trade Ideas Position: USDSGD BatBullish Bat setup for a trading opportunity and this can attribute to the US NFP to give a final push to the entry price, the PRZ and PEZ. I don't usually trade USDSGD, but the stats on my end shows well when it works on Bat Pattern on the daily chart. I will be watching closely for this setup and decide if to engage the trade. Business owners who like to pay off in USD with a weaker USD and stronger SGD, you may like to make a decision today or by Monday. You see Forex can be used for trading, business decision and investment purposes. End of the day is still currency and it has its value.
Long
by RaynLim
Exchange Rate: USDSGDToday is 1 of the better rate to change USD to SGD. On the daily-chart(left) candle did break and close above the resistance line(red line), although the next bearish candle came down and close below we had an indecision candle that typically I place it as a potential reversal candle. On the weekly-chart(right) is a Head&Shoulder setup, yes a potential of heading up to 1.4325 but this could take months. Look left of the same resistance line, it is well seated at the resistance link, look left, important structure. So if you are looking to change USDSGD, today is not too bad for you to do that.
Long
by RaynLim