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AMD's Strength Fades Quickly, New Lows Ahead Primary Chart: AMD's Downtrend from All-Time Highs (2D Time Frame), Fibonacci Retracements and Projections, Long-Term VWAPs AMD remains in a severe downtrend at the primary degree. AMD's price on its most recent rally off the October 13, 2022, low rallied right into trendline resistance and rejected lower. On a linear chart (primary chart above), price pushed through the trendline briefly, setting up a bull trap for those thinking the trend structure might have changed. But price fell back below quickly, a sign of exhaustion and a reinforcement of the very trendline that caused the exhaustion and reversal lower. Price also failed right at a key 50% retracement (green) of the August 3 to October 13 leg of decline. AMD broke below a key long-term Fibonacci level (.618 R) at 63. And it fell below its anchored VWAP from 2022 lows. Now price sits right at a critical multi-year VWAP anchored to 2018 lows (yellow). It looks likely to push below it in the coming days / weeks. Target 1 lies at prior October 2022 lows (actually, slightly above those prior lows) at $55. This is the most conservative target and mostly likely to be achieved. Target 2.A is $48-$49. Target 2.B is 47.20. Target 3 is $45, shown on Supplementary Chart 1 immediately below. (Each target is a condition precedent to the next lower target. Unless and until a prior target is hit and held on a close, the lower targets are not in effect.) Current Analysis AMD remains in a severe downtrend as past analyses have discussed. The history of some key 2022 analyses by SquishTrade is reiterated below in the "Past Analyses" section below. This may help give context to the current analysis. AMD rallied hard off the mid-October 2022 lows. This rally was mentioned when price was trading down into the mid-October 2022 low. See Supplementary Chart B below (discussing the likelihood of an extremely sharp bear bounce" from a multi-month support zone, and noting that the risk-reward at the time was poor for shorts. Price traded down into the key support zone of $54-$55, and then rallied powerfully into December 2022. The highs, however, in the $79-$80 range failed right at trendline resistance. On a linear chart (Primary Chart above), price pushed through the down trendline briefly, setting up a bull trap for those thinking the trend structure might have changed. But price fell back below quickly, a sign of exhaustion and a reinforcement of the very trendline that caused the exhaustion and reversal lower.It appears the downtrend at the primary degree has resumed, and even if sharp rallies occur again, as is typical of bear markets, new lows will likely be reached in 2023. In the process of declining after failing at resistance, AMD cut through a key Fibonacci level of $63. It also broke below a critical anchored VWAP from October 2022 lows. Price targets are identified in the summary section above. But note that two alternative projections both result in a price target around the $47-$48 range. Both these projections rely on a "measured move" and Fibonacci approach (linear chart). Both these projections are .618 projections of prior major legs of decline. And they end up right near the very long-term VWAP from 2015 (dark blue) which is at $48-$49. Lastly, note that the log chart shown in Supplementary Chart 1 has a key measured-move, 1.00 Fib projection at $45. Supplementary Chart 1 Past Analyses AMD's severe downtrend has been discussed in several recent posts in 2022. In May 2022, SquishTrade applied technical analysis to conclude that AMD, which then traded at $94.24, would see more downside in price in the coming weeks and months. A downside projection of $60-$63 was discussed in May 2022, and that was later achieved when price hit $63.34 in September 2022. See the May 2022 post here . Later, on October 6 2022, SquishTrade provided a more thorough discussion of the technical evidence supporting the continuation of the primary trend downward. See Supplementary Chart A below. Despite substantial rallies in tech stocks, including other chipmakers like NVDA, and large-cap tech stocks like AAPL, nothing has materially changed in the structure. In fact, even if more rallies lie ahead, AMD trend structure will take a lot of work to change. Supplementary Chart A When AMD reached a low in mid-October 2022, SquishTrade posted a warning that risk / reward for shorts was poor at the time. Supplementary Chart B. The post noted that AMD's price was near multi-month support and that "an extremely sharp bear bounce could occur at any time. Just look at the prior rallies . . . . Many of these bear rallies rise nearly vertically from the lower line of the channel (called the return line). This is typical of bear rallies. They tend to be some of the strongest rallies that happen in markets, and this bear market has been a fascinating learning experience (even if painful for longer-term investors) as these rallies and declines unfold." Supplementary Chart B But despite that major rally that was imminent, nothing had changed with regard to AMD's larger downtrend structure. That remains true now: AMD remains in a severe downtrend that has shown no evidence of structural change. Another post in October 2022 noted the possibility of the $55 zone of support being significant was also discussed. See Supplementary Chart C. That post, however, was mainly to provide a brief snapshot of AMD's price "at the secular level of trend," which is a multi-year view (longer than a primary trend view which tends to be 9 months to 2 years). The October 30, 2022, post stated: "It's clear that in the intermediate term, bulls need to hold AMD's price above $54-$55 or else the next major level to the downside comes into play." But SquishTrade noted that the level may be retested in the coming weeks to months. Supplementary Chart C The time is likely approaching for a retest of that $54-$55 level. The current viewpoint will be discussed below along with reasonable price targets for 2023

Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue?Primary Chart 1 : AMC Price on the Daily Chart with Significant Fibonacci Levels Noted Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue? Another short squeeze has successfully launched a few lucky traders into the stratosphere. Maybe more than a few if some take profits timely. AMC has risen about +183% above its low on May 12, 2022. In the past several days since July 27, 2022, it has risen about 99.06%. All signs point to another short squeeze similar to the prior ones. Even volume patterns look the same—albeit much smaller than prior volume patterns. The short squeeze could continue as it did in June 2021. Short squeezes don't necessarily stop because everyone things price has gone too high. This article does not take a position on whether AMC is destined to revisit this year's lows or make new all-time lows. And predicting the behavior of numerous market participants—the retail buyers looking for a squeeze and the short sellers looking for a flush—and analyzing how such behavior is affected by other macro issues such as interest rates and liquidity in light of tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy would be a futile endeavor. As a result, one may look to technical analysis to try to make a prediction about the probabilities. Note on Primary Chart 1 how the price patterns at the prior short squeeze on March 29, 2022, and today's short squeeze, look nearly identical. Compare the two yellow ellipses on Primary Chart 1 above. Both peak candlesticks have an extremely tall bullish candle preceding them. And both sport a long upper shadow (or wick). Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. This type of price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Upside breakouts, such as here with AMC, lock in unwary longs with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's books, he further explains that the "false break" that develops is " indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. In summary, the Pinocchio bar with a long upper shadow, especially when viewed along side other similar bars over the past year, imply that price has likely exhausted to the upside for the time being. Further support for exhaustion is evident. Note how the Fibonacci projection levels have provided strong support and resistance repeatedly since the all-time high in June 2021. Primary Chart 1 labels those levels and points out their operation as strong resistance on multiple occasions. The last two rally attempts occurred in December 2021 and March 2022. Both these rally attempts failed at the .50 Fibonacci projection (green line shown on Primary Chart 1). For the current rally, the price bars with the long upper shadow pierces the next Fibonacci level of importance in the sequence: the .618 level which lies just below the .50 level . This also supports at least a temporary pullback or consolidation. Additional evidence supports exhaustion. Note below how AMC's price has now risen to +5 ATR on the daily and its candle has a long upper shadow. Moves to +3 ATR are rarely sustainable for long much less +5ATR. In the chart below, note the location of price relative to the +3 ATR Keltner Channel. The +3 ATR KC is the outermost band on the upper edge of the KC bands. Supplementary Chart 2.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels Supplementary Chart 2.2: AMC's price relative to the +5 ATR band on the daily chart using Keltner Channels Finally, note the declining volume on each successive short squeeze. This suggests that the buying pressure has waned as short squeezes have continued following each major decline. Supplementary Chart 3.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels But the persistence of the buyers squeezing the shorts should be recognized as something that is a new force in markets since what occurred in 2021. Price could indeed push higher if enough collective buying force continues in stock and options markets sufficient to overwhelm all supply. Price can do a lot of things no one expects. But based on technical analysis alone, however, price likely falls lower from here. This author makes no argument that new lows will be reached. It will be important to watch the pullback to answer that question. A reasonable price target would seem to be 16.50 near the .618 retracement of the rally from the May 12, 2022, low to the August 8, 2022 high.