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Expandedflat

HBAR - Possible Expanded Flat Correction HereHBAR dropped a bit lower than the typical expanded flat target @ 1.618 of its trend-based fib (which is around 9 cents as shown, and where I initially drew the green arrowed line for our reversal). Instead, we fell a bit lower to strong support at the area of the green box around 5-6 cents, but also held the daily and weekly trends. Weekly was nearly lost but was quickly reclaimed. We also have strong bull divs showing on most of the major indicators, and OBV (not shown) has continued to rise throughout the downtrend, plus our 50 weekly MA wants price to break back above the daily trend and get us back to an area around 24 cents. Good confluence from indicators here on a lot of different fronts. With all this in mind, if we can first break and hold above our weekly, and then daily trends, I'd suggest we're in a full fledged reversal and may see the expanded flat correction play out, taking us to a new ATH. Keep in mind this may take some time to come to fruition (months, not days or weeks), but we should start seeing signs of the reversal fairly soon if we continue to hold support at the green box. It is still possible that we drop all the way down to 3 cents before reversing, should support not hold, but that could still keep everything above in play as long as we don't lose the weekly/daily trend bottoms w/out quickly reclaiming them again. Here was my original post, prior to moving lower towards support:
BINANCE:HBARUSDLong
by dudebruhwhoa
1
TDOC (zoom in from bigger picture idea)I posted the bigger picture view in my previous post where I provided the context for this idea, which is my near-term projection with 2 most likely paths of price action from current level)... see context overview below: To summarize: - the main pattern I am watching is the completion of wave C of an expanded flat - this is potentially wave II of a larger cycle, invalidated if price drops below 9. A local bottom at 27.30 on May 12 fits the criteria as the 5th subwave of C of this expanded flat, which would make it a 2.00 retracement of wave B of that EF (wave B is also my primary wave 5 at the all time high (ATH) of 308 back in Feb. 2021. - (1) - (2) of circle C was a double combo off correction off the ATH that broke down and has been forming the Z of a triple combo off the ATH that encompasses wave circle C of the expanded flat - (3) - (4) of circle C ended in an expanding triangle around the 1.618 retracement of circle B, this resulted in a nasty gap down to the level that TDOC went public (~28).. this was necessary to realize the 5th and final count of circle C, and also to retest TDOCs IPO level for support. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So now were here. The goal of the big money seems to accumulating shares and establishing a bottom at larger cycle wave II before beginning mark up. The move off the new low has the setup to be very explosive upside for a couple reasons: - it will simultaneously complete the expanded flat correction and the primary corrective wave - there is a massive gap to fill to the upside - potential for short squeeze with over 23% float, and the entire market is a dangerous enviroment for shorts right now if names like TDOC, SPOT, EPAM, etc. (i.e. solid companies with significant near-term upside potential) trigger the squeeze Here's what the chart and the math is telling me for TDOC - there is room next week to make a run to low-mid 40s (point target 46) and complete E of the new triangle forming at (5) of circle C. There is also evidence that wyckoff accumulation began after the gap down and is now in either phase b or c. -if c, then the spring was just realized at D of the blue triangle, and the next thing we will see is a sign of strength to a level > blue A. Looking at the trendline resistance through the highs of blue A & C, TDOC just broke above that Friday 6/24, and made a low just above the resistance (indicating potential support). The marginal gap is at 46, so it is possible to see a test of marginal gap fill at 46, which would be the SoS, followed by a backup/retest of the upper triangle for support before markup. I am getting confluence for the initial target from current level = 46, so I am expecting that to be the next level reached from here {confluence: 46 is my time series forecast by July 15, 46 is the extrapolated level that will be realized if RSI makes it to around 70 and becomes oversold - bullish momentum pointing to that, 46 is the 0.382 of the upper part of previous triangle (i.e. (4) of circle C), and 46 is the marginal gap). Thus, if blue D was in fact the spring, then expect the solid black path to materialize and continue to around 60 (0.618 w.r.t (4) of circle C, and just above the nominal gap fill in the mid 50s). Would likely consolidate at ~60 before deciding if it has the fuel to begin larger cycle III. If so, the next target will be 93 by Jan. 2023. IF solid black path is realized then will likely see an impulse wave off the 2022 low that has just begun to materialize. - if we are only in phase b of the wyckoff accumulation, then it is likely the spring will be at a lower low around 14-19. So the dotted black path is second most likely and would look like: - pop to 46 to complete blue E - drop to 14-19 to complete (5) of circle C, Z of triple combo, and ultimately larger cycle II - pop to low 50s to mark the SoS - retest triangle resistance around mid 30s - pop to 0.618 at ~60, consolidate, and then continue toward 90s by early 2023 * indication in favor of solid black path materializing is via a proprietary method I developed using stochastic differntial equations. I won't go into the details here, but I have learned not to bet against it when it gives a bullish signal - I got that signal Friday 6/24. Also, the fact that we got bought up at the critical support around the IPO price is a good sign it doesn't need to make a new low... however, if they want to do one more shakeout before markup then they will take it lower ** indication in favor of dotted black line materializing is that the DMI at the daily level does not yet show the properties I'd expect to see if spring was already realized (sorry not shown), it does, however, exhibit the properties of a spring already occuring at the 2-4 hour intervals. Also, I use proprietary control charts as supplemental analysis and they indicate there is moderate probability that after 42-46 there will be risk to 14-19. Here is my plan of action based on the above, as well as the linked idea of the bigger picture (this is not financial advice): - Buying shares Monday and will add in the bounce zone of 14-19 if given the opportunity - Buying Jul 8 2022 35.00 calls and looking to sell when underlying reaches 42 and then 46 next week (both paths are pointing to initial target of 46) - Buying Oct 21 2022 50.00 calls with expectation we see solid black path, hedging with July 15 30.00 puts in case we see dotted black path - in which case I will exit the Oct calls if TDOC closes below 32 and then re-enter Oct 21 45.00 calls once TDOC bounces at 14-19 using the profits from the hedge. Bye.
NYSE:TDOCLong
by JerryManders
Context for Main Idea (see next post) I get it, looks like a cluster f***.. Only so much I can do to capture full picture over entire public history, so plz read below (this chart is merely to provide context for my forecasts which I will cover in my main post after this): TDOC is not dead, its not a broken chart - rather, there is indication using elliot wave that this is a potential monster that is currently trying to complete its corrective phase at the intermediate and primary degree (within a larger bullish cycle that could merely be around wave II). Even if this doesn't ever make a new high (and thus reach wave III of the larger cycle), it is still bullish near-mid term after just completing wave (5) of circle C of an expanded flat - which I believe will completes wave II of the cycle. For this to be invalidated it would need to drop to an all time low below 9.03 (underlying), or it will need to attempt a run to at least test the circle A level and get harshly rejected such that it begins a new leg down toward all time low. I am going to post another idea that zooms in on the local price action (where the yellow circle is on this chart around the 2022 price action), but here is an overview of my mid-long term expectations: • TDOC appears to be nearing completion of Cycle wave II that began at its all time low in the Spring of 2016. Wave I was at 253 in August 2020, and an expanded flat formed off of that to begin a grueling corrective wave down to current levels. The details of the expanded flat are below: - Circle green A formed @ 168.50 in November 2020 - Circle green B formed at the all time high of 308 in February 2021, this was likely the result of the massive short squeeze that occurred in the market at the beginning of 2021. Wave B was almost exactly 1.618 of A - Circle green C is forming currently and may or may not be complete – that is what I will discuss in the main idea following this context. We can see wave C attempted to complete around the 1.618 of B back in April 2022 but at the 5 count off the high at B was not convincing and it gapped down to the 2.00 of B in early May 2022 (*Note: this is a very important level, ~28, because it is the level TDOC opened at when it went public – more on * in below section) • When TDOC went public, even before COVID sent it into insanity mode, it had a very impressive beginning – it traded very well and there was indication of massive interest by big money will long term bullish sentiment. This makes sense because the company is in fact a game changer, but back to the chart… after going public around 28/share (*), it underwent a Wyckoff accumulation phase and established a low around 9/share. From that point it began an primary motive sequence (blue circle EWC 1-5) to initiate markup to its all time high of 308 (+ 3,322% off the low in only 4.5 years). A couple things to note on that: - After the low around 9/share in 2016, it gained traction and broke out above the 28 (*IPO price), at that point volatility and volume really picked up and set the stage for its epic run. - Recently we just saw a retest of that 28 level and it has shown support thus far, which makes me think we are about to see major markup from here (details of that covered in my next post) • Given this sophisticated structure of TDOC, my minimum mid-term target expectation is for it to test old support from the expanding channel off the 2016 low around the 0.236 of green circle C – it will likely reach this by Jan 2023.. so minimum 6 month target = 93 (+150% upside move from current price) . For that reason I am buying TDOC shares, but this is not financial advice. If it gets rejected in the 90s and shows resistance there it would be the first sign, but not full confirmation, that we might not see a new high. It would likely just consolidate there before testing mid 100s (see below) • My minimum long-term target by 2028 is 167 (+ 350% upside move from current price) . For this reason I will be adding shares if it makes it over 93, i.e. if it makes it back inside that channel and regains support there . This can happen a whole lot sooner than 2028, but 2028 is my expectation for the longest it would take to get to 167. 167 is the 0.50 of green circle C • If I am right that we are in cycle green II, the above minimum targets are merely checkpoints on the path to new all time highs. My logic here is that big money investors saw the capacity for massive growth in TDOCs epic run from 9 to 308, and they are beginning to accumulate again to mark it up even higher this time. I think COVID was a massive catalyst for the crazy levels reached in cycle I, so it could take time for TDOC to make its way to new highs and complete III, but if anything I think covid gave it the exposure necessary to spark long term interest, and the current level is most likely seen by big money as a massive discount/opportunity. Please see my next idea as a local analysis for my near-term expectations and forecast, that idea will be linked to this and it will contain the evidence that I see for my expectation that this will indeed reach new highs in the years to come.
NYSE:TDOCLong
by JerryManders
Supplement to “Springish” ideaAt smaller time frame I’m observing an expanded flat with B 1.618 extension of A, and C 1.618 retracement of B. This increases probability of seeing follow through off the bigger picture spring in the accumulation phase going into an expected sign of strength. My last idea, linked, goes into more detail about that but in summary here are my near-term expectations: - continuation up to 111 - pullback from 111 to around 100 - if bounces at 100, begin markup to 140 initial target
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by JabezDolz
BTC BITCOIN USD : NETFLIX FRACTAL EXPANDED FLAT $200K+ COMINGBTC BITCOIN USD I have been looking for fractals throughout the various markets and I have found another one that is really good. This is Netflix where I found the fractal showing the same expanded flat correction as Bitcoin just on a different time scale. The MACD is also very similar as well. I believe the BTC was just in a breather phase over this past year and is now ready to complete the other 50% of its bull run. Sometimes climbing a mountain you need a break if its too steep at the halfway point. If its a nice slow steady incline then a break usually isnt needed. This is not financial advice this is just my opinion. Follow me for more updates and analysis and leave me a like and comment if you find this content useful. Thank you and good luck.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Bitgolder
Expanding Triangle - 520 breakout levelLRCX very bullish yet very volatile setup. I posted recently but have recognized my initial count was not correct. The correct count is the following: - LRCX is completing the final leg of an Expanding Triangle as the 5th wave of a larger Expanded Flat, which is the wave 4 of a larger motive sequence that started a decade ago off the low around 31.17. - the B wave of the Wave 4 expanded flat was its all time high of 731.85 in Jan 2022, which was a 1.418 extension of the A of EF (thus, the A of 4) - There are multiple indications that Friday May 20 was bottom (f leg of expanding triangle, c of v of C of 4): 1) pinbar candle on the daily chart 2) showed support at the A level around 450 and at the same time found support at the downtrend off the Jan high - the pinbar tail got bought up quick at that 450 3) 3 counts down off the e leg completed Friday May 20 - it is currently on second count of 3 up 4) the retracement of B of expanding flat showed equality with the previous extension at about 1.418 *Minimum target is the upper trendline of expanding triangle around 520 (should test that this week and attempt breakout) **Intermediate target if we get breakout is 548 *** Goal target is new All time high above 731 (estimating 786) to complete wave 5 of the bullish impulse by August-October of 2022. I will post a bigger picture view idea to reference for the overall counts, this idea was meant to focus on the zoomed in expanding triangle which indicates breakout is imminent. Interesting that breakout attempt is aligning time wise with NVDA earnings May 25. If they beat it would likely provide catalyst for the inductry to run and LRCX perfect setup to move big up. Best, A. Crawley
NASDAQ:LRCXLong
by JerryManders
Supplement to previous idea - BullishHere is the bigger picture for LRCX, as referenced in previous post on expanding triangle. We are currently at the transition from f of C of 4 and for the reasons outlined in last idea it is likely that wave 5 of the larger impulse is about to begin (or began May 20), to summarize: - wave 4 was an expanded flat with an ending expanding triangle as the 5th wave of C ~1.418 retracement off B (the Jan highs, which was a 1.418 extension of A) - initial target is 522, which will be the breakout level from the expanding triangle (this attempt should unfold by end of this week in alignment with NVDA earnings. If it fails, it is likely to drop to lower support of expanded triangle around low-mid 430s; if breakout is successful it will continue to the following targets in route to complete 5th motive wave: *Intermediate target range 548-low 600s, point target 567 ** goal target range 732-786 (which will be wave 5, precise level tbd and will send update if we clear 522 and intermediate level is realized Catalyst = witchkraft
NASDAQ:LRCXLong
by JerryManders