FB - The sky is the limit...Hello Everyone! It seems now long time ago I wrote about FB trying to breakout at 241 USD (it was just June...) and we find it today above 300 USD...!
Aldough I believe that this company has all good cards to reach 1 T Dollar of capitalisation in the near future, does not mean it will reach it the next days.
Market goes in waves : waves up and waves down, a correction is more likely when price is far from its 20 sma, like it is today.
Of course this strong trend which pushed all FAAMG to new all times highs during these most recent sessions might continue for a while, how long is hard to predict, anyhow I start looking south direction, regarding FB I am watching three levels : 20 sma, 50 sma and the gap left open at around 235.
These are the levels where I will likely think to add more shares (if reached) and/or using options for trading, leave a comment if you wish to do that in the section below and...may the market be with us...!
Faamg
NDX- It is not broken until it is broken Much has been said about Big tech five's dominance on Nasdaq and S&P500 and how grossly valued NDX is.
People often don't realize that big fives generate a good portion of their revenues oversea so technically their TAM is the entire world. Furthermore, internet, IT service and e-commerce industries are less impacted by Covid-19. Also, over the last 12 months, big fives saw double digit revenue increase while others fared much worse.
The FOMO is merely reflecting the shift in investor preference from value stocks to growth stocks and Nasdaq is a place to be for chasing high-momentum thrill. As more and more investors pile on their money in tech company, the network effect kicks in.
The key is to ride the trend and get in when the trend is still intact and get out when the trend is broken. Don’t worry about whether we are in the bubble or not or when the bubble will burst, because you don't own the crystal ball. It is harder to predict the top than bottom because market can remain irrational for a long time. Market always under-react to the surprise news initially, then overreact later. Perhaps, we are currently at the over-reaction stage. Nonetheless, If it ain’t broken, you keep riding on it.
March crash reflected the anticipation of devastating second quarterly loss and the subsequent rally represented and reflected the positive sentiment of fast recovery in the third quarter. Let’s wait for Sept GDP number to confirm whether or not current sentiment is justified.
MSFT - Breathing outHello Everyone! A bunch of signals from MSFT after Friday close, let's start.
Following recent all time high, price starts to breath out and looks like to find support at 50 sma daily (195,78), where very near we can spot the first Fibo retracement ( 196,86) actually not even touching those levels but bouncing off before reaching, infact the low of the daily candle was 197,51. This is bullish.
What else we also spot? a divergence between price and RSI. This is bearish.
Will this breathing out be enough ? in other words : will the price start trading in the next few days around 200 usd and eventually trading higher after founding support at its 50 sma, or needs to breath out few more and look for a support at 38,2% Fibonacci level (184,75) ?
Both scenario are possible, I would say to wait Monday close for a confirmation.
If you feel to leave a comment pls do that and....may the market be with us!
MSFT ends wave 5 started back in 2009 - FAAMG coming to an end?I did a quick wave analysis over the last several decades. If you mark the start of a new motive wave cycle starting on the 2009 low, you get a very nice motive wave cycle. It technically came up a dollar short. However, wave 3 ended with an overshoot. So there may be a touch more left in it, but it looks like it might have reached the end of the road. Will there be a large correction? Is this a an indicator that FAAMG stocks have ended their historic run. Is the bubble going to burst soon, this year, next year? Or maybe it is just a bunch of BS and it will just keep going up.
AMZN - Weekly RSI divergence disappeared...Hello Everyone! The divergence spotted early June on 1H, 4H, D and W timeframes did not take place.
Amazon is showing a strong momentum bouncing on the 20 sma on its daily timeframe.
Aldough on shorter timeframes divergence is still in place, on W timeframe the RSI divergence disappeared after the recent rally, the indicator is in overbought level at a value of 80, than, how to act ?
An overbought condition does not mean that tomorrow the price will start to decline, it might remain overbought for a certain amount of time, let's enjoy the ride as expensive can get more expensive, on the other hand we do know that price cannot go up in a straight line without retracement, and when price is too far from its 20 sma it is a signal of a potential down move.
Whether this move will happen sooner or later we will see, in case of a strong down move it is possible the price will go under the 20 sma and reach the previous area of resistance between 2047 - 2182 which will likely become new support area.
Thanks for reading and...may the market be with us!
JUMIA - African Amazon Makes Another BreakoutOur previous objective of $6 is almost reached. A confirmation pullback pattern could form using the $6 resistance. If not, the next resistance is at $7.
Today's breakout represents a strong mid-term buy signal as we can now see a cup and handle pattern combined with a breakout.
We also note that the rally that started on 20 March point could be the start of a new Elliot Wave.
