USDCAD DAILY FADE GOOD RRRExpecting the price to retest the highs at the 127% before fading and retracing towards the 38% retracement
Fade
DXY/ USD: LONG AUDUSD 0.78TP - FOMC DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFed dudley was largely hawkish on the margin more than hintin that the Fed should hike this year using plural "rate hikes this year good news" and also saying "fed funds futures under-pricing the rate hike likelihood".
These remarks seem to be the catalyst for USD buying despite the weak CPI data (as expected) - nonetheless i think this is a good opp to add to AUD$ longs at 0.771 (at market) or lower (with 0.78tp) if possible as the remarks are likely to be faded later today once the real hard data (CPI miss) sets in, I dont think these remarks will firm USD for long.
Nonetheless as it stands the opt implied probability of a Sept/Dec hike from fed funds futures trades at 12% and 37.8% marginally up on the day from 9% and 37.4% though i expect this to fade throughout the day along with USD demand.
FOMC Dudley speech highlights:
Fed's Dudley: Sees 2H Economy Stronger Compared with 1H
Fed's Dudley: Economy in `OK Shape'; Income, Jobs Gains `Sturdy'
Fed's Dudley: Economy in `OK Shape'; Income, Jobs Gains `Sturdy'
Fed's Dudley: Premature to Talk About Raising Inflation Target
Fed's Dudley: US Election will not `Weigh' on Fed Decision on Rates
Fed's Dudley: Premature to Talk About Raising Inflation Target
Fed's Dudley: Near-Term Risk from Brexit has Diminished
FED'S DUDLEY: TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT RAISING INFLATION TARGET
FED'S DUDLEY: FED FUNDS FUTURES MKT UNDER-PRICING RATE HIKES
FED'S DUDLEY: RATE HIKES THIS YEAR WOULD BE 'GOOD NEWS'
FED'S DUDLEY: US ECONOMY TO BE BETTER IN H2 2016
FED'S DUDLEY: APPROACHING TIME FOR RATE HIKE
- Doesn't Expect 'A Lot Of Tightening Over Time'
- Says His Views Remain Generally Unchanged
Fade GBPUSD Topside - Brexit and Fed downside carryGBPUSD closes below the 95% reversal SD Channel line, also LSMA gains momentum past price action indicating a pullback is close..
Short term is bullish but no interest in GU topside.
INSTEAD we let the bullish technicals play out, hopefully carrying us back to 1.465-7, then we SHORT from these levels where several resistance levels lie and volatility resistance tightens.
I love the SHORT GU play every time until the 15th this month..
1. FED hawkish momentum continues to be priced into LOWER GU - only 24% is currently priced in, this may/SHOULD become > 40% which is lower GU.
2. Brexit uncertainty will indefinitely take us to 1.40-3 by the 23rd of june.
thus shorting GU from 1.46-7 can give us 8-1 reward-risk... 50 pips risk 400pips TP down to 1.43/42 by the 23rd of June..
GU lost 700pips in december after the last hike, it is very sensitive to US Fed - unlike UJ and EU
$MGT short into major parabolic move intradayI'll be watching $MGT tomorrow for another short into a major parabolic move, or any crack of support.
Hammer candle at bottom of daily Inside Bar with RSI oversoldAs title says.
I'll be fading this back up to the daily pivot, which coincides with recent structure and the 38.2% retracement
NZDUSD TopWe hit the 200 day moving average and the channel top. Then formed a massive bearish engulfing pattern. A bearish setup. First target is $65, then $64.
