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How do earnings releases affect PA?Lately, we have been seeing some dramatic sell offs from earnings. NFLX earnings tanked the stock and they weren't all that bad. TSLA's most recent earnings caused just over a 100 point sell off and they were positive. TSLA and SNAP's earnings are coming up today/tomorrow and we see some sustained selling. So this made me wonder, how do earnings really affect a large cap stock like FB and NFLX? Thanks to the miracles of quant trading and being a statistics based trader, I can isolate my data based on earnings releases to see what actually happens to the stock upon earnings releases and run some tests to determine significance. I am doing this with FB. Analysis: Since FB's history, there have been a total of 117 earnings releases. 87 have been positive releases (74%); and 30 have been negative releases (26%). What about price action? Okay, before I give the results I have to briefly explain what I did here. I isolated earnings day to the day immediately before the earnings release, the day of the earnings release and the day immediately after earnings release. So, earnings releases constitute a 3 day period in the data, this is because I know as a trader that the day leading up to, the day of, and the day following tend to have some dramatic reactions in PA. So what I did was I subtracted the close price of these earnings days from the close price of the day immediately proceeding the earnings days. As an example, if earnings were released on the 20th, then the 19th, 20th and 21st were all included as "earnings days" and their close price was subtracted from the 18th. Okay, now on the to the results: Of the positive earnings, the mean increase in price was 0.443. That means, on average, when there were positive results, FB closed an average of 0.44 cents higher on the earnings period. Of the negative earnings, the average increase in price was -2.93 with a Standard Deviation of 17.25. Meaning the average price dropped by $2.93. The chart below shows the degree of sell off by earning release date. Keep in mind, a NEGATIVE value means that the price INCREASED and a Positive value means that the price DROPPED: Whether earnings were negative or positive correlated to whether it sold off were in fact statistically significant when analyized via paired sample T-test. However, these numbers may interest you: Of the positive releases: 41% of the time there was actually a sell off and just over 58% had a marginal increase in price. The increase in price generally happened on the day AFTER the release. Of the negative releases: 26% had a sell off and 73% did not have a sell off (This is interesting, right?). Conclusion: - Earnings do correlate to PA; however, these correlations are not predictable - Negative earnings have resulted in a sell off 26% of the time - Positive earnings have resulted in a sell off 41% of the time That's it, leave your questions, comments and criticisms below! Trade safe everyone!
FEducation
by Steversteves
27
FACEBOOK forcast .- on the weekly chart : the price hits a descent support level few weeks backs and bounced off it - on the daily chart : a slight pullback took place but a very weak one . - on the 15 min chart : yestrday ended as a green day after the price broke the VWAP upward . even tho it went under it again, att the end of the day , it closed on it - personal opinion : the price will resume it climb with 75% chance of breaking breaks that level . - best move : waiting for today's green candle to appear for confirmation on an end of the pullback and BUY Feel free to cantact me if you want me to analyse something or keep an eye on a stock/forex/crypto... and gave you daily updates about
FLong
by fhuutuuf
FB Potential For Bearish Momentum| 19th April 2022Price is abiding by the descending trendline. We see a potential bearish continuation from sell entry level of 213.22 which lines up with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 202.68 which is horizontal pullback support. Our bearish bias is further supported by ichimoku cloud indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FShort
by Rockqet
FB: Conviction to the downsideFacebook has a neutral to downside pressure. Downside to the 210-200 would be the first target if the trend continues. There are many possibilities into the world of Facebook / Metaverse, but challenges ahead will be more subjective than what many believe. In any case, the main focus is the charts and not the company itself; therefore, keep an eye on that April 7th low. Even with some upside impulse moves in this bearish market; there needs to be significant conviction in both time and price to warrant a change in the complexion of its structure. Until chart / price action complexion changes sentiment remains the same.
FShort
by bsdvs23
"Facebook Can't Go Lower" Part 3Back in February Facebook/Meta NASDAQ:FB dropped over -20% on earnings. This was crazy for such a big profile, mega-cap company and many investors though (and said) "Facebook can't possibly go lower" and used this justification to buy right on the drop. From a technical standpoint that drop blew past support and with so many people saying "Facebook can't go lower" my trader senses told me one thing... it WILL go lower. That is why I made that line into a meme at the time. Now, after many new lows and 68 days of trading after the dump a technical setup has formed that I actually like. I don't know the future but at this point you have a defined bullish trend of buying to key off that has pulled back to a 50% Retracement. From this price action a trader can size their position and risk accordingly. This is something that was NOT possible if someone just bought on the dump alone. It was entirely possible that Facebook could have gone lower and lower. Fortunately and unfortunately it did not. Fortunately, as many investors are surely glad. Unfortunately, because returning to breakeven and then profit fails to leave the impression on those that jumped the trade without patience. The Lesson here is simple: Wait for price action to provide a setup. Even if it takes months.
FLong
by norok
1
FB Potential For Bullish Bounce| 12th April 2022We expect a potential bullish bounce from buy entry level of 215.39 in line with 78.60% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 235.59 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
F
by FXCM
FB Potential For Bullish Bounce| 12th April 2022We expect a potential bullish bounce from buy entry level of 215.39 in line with 78.60% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 235.59 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FLong
by Rockqet
FB BearishI love the evolution of Facebook / Meta as we've been experiencing the Metaverse at the Firm; tremendous opportunities for people there. However, this is the markets and I'm focused on 'what I see on the charts' versus 'how I feel about a stock or news'; therefore, I will point out that I remain bearish on FB. FB is below the 200 day and 50 day moving averages, which is never a good sign, and today we see the NASDAQ-100 gap down to its 50-day area. The Communications sector is just off the 50-day, while the biggest impacts to the sector itself have been #GOOGL and #NFLX (at least taking into account todays action. Market conditions are not idea and personally I think the march lows will be tested soon -- that is not to say we won't have any upward impulse moves for day trading opportunities. Overall, my sentiment is neutral to bearish on #AMD based on the current complexion of the overall markets, the semiconductor index, and technical conditions. I'd want to see FB hold the $221.41 (it's okay if price breaches below a bit), but you don't want to see that become a resistance levels. That could very much put the area between $209 - $211 on notice in the coming days.
FShort
by bsdvs23
FB: Buy zone is 205-210FB just completed a 5-wave move off the low. This is a good sign that the stock has indeed bottomed. What comes next is the W-2 pullback. The standard fibonacci retracement targets for a pullback are .5 and .618, which translates to a buy zone of 205-210. There are also bearish divergences in MACD and RSI, indicating that the uptrend is exhausted. I do not own shares of FB, but if I did, I would be selling covered calls against my shares to protect my downside over the next week or so. FB should reach about the $300-$350 region this year.
FShort
by TomDaSpankEngine
5 Stocks Walk into a Bar....A mega cap, a large cap, a medium cap, a small cap, and a micro cap stock walk into a bar. The bartender looks at them and says, "What do you want?" They all reply, "A Shot!" Well lets give these stocks "A Shot!" by taking a look at their price performance over the past 52 weeks and evaluating whether they are a "good buy." Mega Cap: Facebook or Meta (FB) has fallen roughly 21% in the past 52 weeks despite having a market cap of $603B. Large Cap: Netflix (NFLX) has fallen roughly 26% in the past 52 weeks despite having a market cap of $165B. Medium Cap: Zoom (ZM) has fallen roughly 64% in the past 52 weeks despite having a market cap of $34B. Small Cap: SoFi (SOFI) has fallen roughly 47% in the past 52 weeks despite having a market cap of $7.47B. Micro Cap Loan Depot (LDI) has fallen roughly 78% in the past 52 weeks despite having a market cap of $1.3B. All of these companies that I have mentioned above are oversold in my opinion, despite being one of the largest market cap in each of their respective segments and most are overall profitable. They all offer an important service that I have personally used in the past or currently use on an almost daily basis. Almost everyone is aware of Facebook now Meta, develops products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, wearables, and in-home devices worldwide. Between the Facebook app and Instagram, they are currently the largest social media platform to date. The same goes with Netflix. Who do you know that hasn't used or watched a show or movie on Netflix before? Within the US, its almost unheard of. Now, you can get Netflix stock at a 26% discount and its not going away any time soon as the company begins to enter new markets within developing countries. Zoom is a software that played an integral part during the pandemic, where the world resorted to working from home to combat the pandemic's spread. Thus lead to the mass adoption of Zoom's software into many companies around the world who wanted to continue to collaborate in real time. Since the pandemic and the huge gains Zoom saw, it has since erased these gains and sit at what appears to be a bottom, with massive upside potential of well over 100%+ as companies continue to work remotely despite the waning of the pandemic. SoFi provides digital financial services and is taking on the traditional legacy banks. SoFi offers loans, investing accounts, crypto accounts, credit cards, banking, insurance, insight tracking such as spending habits or credit score monitoring and much more. I believe SoFi will give large banks a run for their money, which will ultimately lead to a potential buy-out by one of the legacy banks looking for an edge. As of today, SoFi is down roughly 62% despite being profitable in the past 2 quarters with a 13% QoQ gain in the 3rd quarter of 2021. LoanDepot sells mortgage and non-mortgage lending products and in 2015 was named the second largest non-bank provider of direct-to-consumer loans within the US. With an easy to use platform, and one of the best rate offerings and customer experiences, LoanDepot is poised to grow significantly in the coming years with increased revenues from raising interest rates. Overall, I believe in these companies on a personal level. I encourage all of you to take a look at these companies yourselves and make your own conclusions. I would also implore you to follow the advice of Peter Lynch and always understand what you are investing in, because when the market corrects, which it always will. If you do not understand the company you invest in then you will not have conviction in the company, which you would be much more inclined to sell during a 10%, 25%, or even 50% drop, when in reality you should be adding to your positions during opportunities such as this. As Baron Rothschild always said, "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." Even if this is your own blood. What do you think about my analysis? Make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments below. If you enjoyed this content then please leave a like! It takes time to make these things you know. #thedailyinvestor
FLong
by thedailyinvestor
2