Fedbalancesheet — Trading Ideas on TradingView

$RESPPANWW Fed Balance Sheet at 2020 Level Before QE Very interesting chart to watch here FRED:RESPPANWW Clearly shows we're still in QT, but obviously markets have been pumping. The Fed balance sheet is sitting at $6.9T which is the level in 2020 when the Fed continued its 2nd round of QE. I doubt they would announce they are buying assets again at the next FOMC on 12/17, but quite possibly at the January or March 2025 meeting after Trump takes office.

Macro Monday 61 - Fed Balance Sheet Signals Liquidity Bounce Macro Monday 61 Fed Balance Sheet Hits Long Term Supporting Trend Line The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet The balance sheet is published weekly, typically on Thursday afternoons, and it provides valuable information on the direction of global liquidity and the fed’s monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increases, it means that the central bank is acquiring more assets. This expansion can occur through purchases of Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities, or other financial instruments. The increase in assets typically leads to greater liquidity in the financial system and can influence interest rates. Conversely, a decrease in the balance sheet indicates asset sales and reduced liquidity The Chart - FRED:WALCL ▫️ Since April 2022 the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet has reduced from $8.973 trillion to $7.140 trillion (reduction of $1.833 Trillion). ▫️ Right now, the chart has signaled that we have hit a critical diagonal trend line support (red line on chart). ▫️ We have hit this red trend line twice in the past (Sept 2019 & Aug 2008) and on both occasions it bounced from the red trend line and the balance sheet thereafter increased significantly for 2 to 5 years. If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have held the line or fallen below it. What does the following mean to you? ✅High likelihood of interest rate reductions in Sept. ✅Apparent stabilization of the rate of inflation (U.S) ✅A current stable labor market in the U.S ⏳The possibility of the balance sheet bouncing from trend support and increasing from the support line as it did in the past for 2 years+ (Increasing Global Liquidity). Versus 🚨 The yield curve un-inverting (moving above 0) 🚨 Sahm Rule Triggered 🚨 The marginal increase in the U.S. Unemployment Rate which is consistent with prior recessions. 🚨 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless claims have had increases consistent with pre recession historic activity. 🚨Job openings reducing since March 2022 from approx. 12m to 9m (this would be the largest pre recession drop ever if followed by a recession. 🚨 Warren Buffet sitting on the biggest pile of cash ever. Does this all say “soft landing” imminent or should we be worried? In my opinion, we will know by Jan 2026. Its a big window of time, but the timing is the biggest challenge, and if we can take one thing from the above, volatility is guaranteed. Happy Trading PUKA

Quantitative Tightening Effects on the Markets This video tutorial discussion: • What is QE and QT? • Each impact to the stock market • The latest QT, how will the stock market into 2024? Dow Jones Futures & Its Minimum Fluctuation E-mini Dow Jones Futures 1.0 index point = $5.00 Code: YM Micro E-mini Dow Jones Futures 1.0 index point = $0.50 Code: MYM Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com

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Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Snapshot Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Snapshot - Between the 11 - 18th Sept 2023 we had the Largest one week decline of approx. $74.7 billion since the balance sheet reduction started in April 2022 - We are currently approx. $50 billion away from a 1 trillion reduction 👀 We are in for an interesting Quarter end to the 2023 year, that is to say the least. Stay Nimble Puka

FED Balance Sheet - Ex-Shadow Operations / Ex- FASB 56 Run-Off... The only thing running is Bids for MBS and USTs. After an aggressive May 25th, $51 Sell ahead of the June 15th Taper was stopped dead in its tracks. ____________________________________________ Imagine swimming in the middle of the vast Pacific Ocean. Bumping into Flotsom and Jetsom every so often. It's lonely out there... Nowhere to run. Paddle? You'd need a Lifeboat. It Sunk.