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Federalfundsrate

Artificial Banks Wane: Bitcoin Ushers in Financial Epoch This chart shows a view of the top 8 banks in the United States and the charts go back to at least 2008 so you may see how artificial the bubble is. As the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hikes, a cloud of uncertainty looms over the banking sector. This trading strategy anticipates potential instabilities in major banks, which could catalyze a significant migration towards decentralized finance solutions such as Bitcoin. Higher rates could strain over-leveraged banks, leading to a fall in their value, while Bitcoin could rise as an alternative financial refuge. COMBINED TOTAL OF ALL 8 BANKS = 1.5 Trillion 1. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): $391.88 billion 2. Mastercard Incorporated (MA): $360.32 billion 3. Bank of America Corp. (BAC): $218.28 billion 4. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): $151.81 billion 5. Morgan Stanley (MS): $137.6 billion 6. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): $106.65 billion 7. Citigroup Inc. (C): $88.48 billion 8. U.S. Bancorp (USB): $46.62 billion The colossal $1.5 trillion valuation of these traditional banking institutions may give an illusion of robustness, yet this façade might not withstand the test of an evolving financial landscape. These banks, laden with their outdated models and susceptibility to Fed's rate hikes , represent a realm of finance that is increasingly becoming unsustainable. I believe a significant portion of the capital currently tied in these institutions is likely to flow into more resilient, decentralized financial systems such as Bitcoin. By doing so, investors may pivot from a seemingly sinking ship to a dynamic and emergent financial framework, embracing the future of finance with open arms.
NYSE:MSShort
by MichaelBsul
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXY daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% DXY, 10% Cash. *Equity Futures, Agriculture, Metals and EURUSD are down to start the week while DXY, US Treasuries, Energy and Crypto are up. As long as the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate keeps going up and Russia keeps escalating the war in Ukraine, DXY will likely keep going up. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.* Price is currently trending up at ~$113.78 after briefly testing $114.62 resistance earlier in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $108.84, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 77.21 and is beginning to form a soft peak as it approaches 81.84 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 96 and is beginning to form a soft peak as it still technically tests 88.40 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.16 as it approaches 1.24 resistance with no signs of peak formation. ADX is currently trending up at 35 as Price continues going higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to break above $114.62 resistance then the next likely target is a retest of $119.88 resistance for the first time since January 2002. However, if Price is rejected here at $114.62 resistance, it will likely retest $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $107.91.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs FED Funds RateThis post is intended to show the current gap between the market for the 2 year US treasury yield on bonds and the official funds rate, and why the market is forcing central banks hands into raising interest rates when the market is in such a fragile state in ability to support and maintain debt at heighten interest rate levels. Simply put, bond market are crashing (i.e. no one wants to hold onto treasure bonds at present because they are yielding very little / people are losing faith in governments ability to uphold their debt obligations / competition in the market for credit is rising etc. etc). All these factors play into buying selling behavior and is repriced in the market. As a bond or lone has a fixed bond or repayment structure ($amount), if the capital price the bond changes hand in the secondary market is lowered, the effective yield from the bond goes up. For example if a bond is made for $10,000 and requires a 10% interest rate (i.e. $1,000) per specified period, then if this loan / contract / bond (same thinking) is changed hands in the secondary market and sold for $5,000, the new own still receivers the conditions of the prior arrangement. Hence $1000 per period. As the price was $5,000, then the interest or Yield on that bond is now 20% (i.e. $1000 / $5000 x100 = 20%). As new credit is competing against the secondary market (i.e. you could loan your money out to a new loan or you could buy an existing loan (Bond) on the secondary market), this is how the bond market drives interest rates. Complicated but hope this makes sense. in summary, falling bond prices cases rising yields or interest rates. Raising bond prices causes lower interest rates. Central Banks play in this market as a market participant with an unlimited check book (this is how new base currency or M1 enters the market ( QE - Quantitative Easing) or is removed from the currency supply (QT - Quantitative Tightening ). If Central Banks want interest rates to rise, they flood the market with bonds, dropping the market prices with excess supply and causing yields to rise. If they want interest rates to drop, they soak up supply in the market of bonds, causing prices to rice and yields (interest rates to drop). This process is called 'Open Market Manipulation'. AKA planned market manipulation at it's best. www.federalreserve.gov The 'official funds rate' is just a forecast which shows how the Central Bank plans to manipulate the bond market until it's next meeting. Interest rates on loans / bonds etc should be viewed as a measure of risk of default. High interest rates reflect the reward on offer for lending your currency out and the risk you will not get it back. In short, Market conditions (such as inflation ) changes investors view on risk. When Central Bank manipulation of the bond market goes our of whack with the risk to lending in the market, we see large gaps between the yield curves on bonds between the official funds rates issued by the Central Bank . This gap is clearly shown this chart, comparing the 2 year yield against the Official FED Funds rate (the interest rate you hear about on the TV). History shows the 2 year is a good leading indicator on what Central Banks will do with interest rates. Make no mistake, the market and inflation is forcing Central Banks to raise interest rates. I very much question the robustness of 'the economy' to handle higher interest rates at present.
TVC:US02Y
by Brodie
3
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 03 - FED 0.75%]Quick update on the Cycle Bottom Indicator (CBI) tracking + Log Chart post central bank federal funds rate announcement with a 75 basis point increase. See link for announcement: www.wsj.com This was not too much of a surprise, given: 1) inflation numbers after a 2) massive increase in M1 currency supply post COVID (in all tear 1 currencies) and 3) the massive gap emerging between 2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs FED Funds Rate we discussed in the last post. There is every chance the FED will continue to go hard on interest rate increases until we see the gap close. Will be interesting to see how the CBI performs in such uncharted bottoming conditions for BTC.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
Major Crashes and the Federal Funds RateThe last three major crashes and recessions have been preceded by a period of interest rate hikes by the Fed. Each hike since the 1970s has gotten less and less far before the economy rolled over, calling for an emergency rate cut. There are many reasons for this, including the deflationary impact of demographics and globalisation, as well as the ever increasing debt burden around the world. This has caused us to want lower and lower rates, and to implement Quantitative Easing (QE) when the rates bottom out and cannot be reduced further. Each time the rates are hiked. Each time the Fed eventually realises the economy cannot cope and performs an emergency rate cut. Each time in the last three cycles, this came too late, and a crash ensued. A trendline can be drawn to estimate where the rate hikes could go this time before history begins to rhyme. Incidentally, this is also what the bond market is pricing in right now. With spiralling inflation, the Russia crisis and the energy prices, the pressure to hike rates is extreme. However, the economy is slowing, the earnings are stalling, and the stimulus is spent. China's economy has already stalled to the point where its government has cut rates, even in the face of inflation. When will the US be next? Unless the Russia/Ukraine situation stabilises soon, this chart is probably conservative.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by hydespo
2
A yearly look at DXY, Interest rates, and Velocity of MoneyWhen it comes to charting and technical analysis in the modern era I think this might be one of the most important charts of all time. There is a decades long falling wedge structure that quite frankly began before I was born. Falling Wedges are normally very unreliable in reaching target but the longer term they are the more likely they are to make it to target. When it comes to fractals they often show up as components of higher time frame W,M or triangle patterns. DXY has clearly broken out. It spent between 2016 and 2018 testing the wedge resistance as support and has some nice structure that we can look at on the lower time frames. On the main chart I have visualized the MACD EMAs and price action to be used in conjunction with the MACD itself. The EMAs are on the verge of crossing and depending on how well the year goes may have a close with a cross. This would mean the that for the first time in several generations the momentum on the DXY would have been net positive on the yearly time frame. It will be even more bullish for the dollar if/when the signal line crosses the zero line. Also on the chart is the Volatility stop. That lets us know with some auto-charting that we can't mess up that the price action has flipped to bullish as we price overcame the bearish volatility limits defined by the bearish VSTOP in 2016. The last bearish VSTOP level was roughly between 102.7 and 101.76. Working with the VSTOP as it gaps and flips is like a lot of TA, part science and part art and prone to letting you see things that may or not be there. One thing I do is look at the flat areas pf VSTOPs as potential range of resistance that are easier to chart due to the VSTOP behavior. As the chart below shows the yearly VSTOP range defined by the yearly VSTOP on the flats acted as resistance on the monthly time frame with no candle closes above the area. So at this point I suspect that VSTOP range will be a significant range for quite a while and may be flipped from resistance to support before a DXY Uptrend can continue. Also, the red zone is where the yearly candle wicks exist when shown on the monthly chart. There is a fair chance that while there may be some wicks above there on the monthly time frame over the next couple of years the candle bodies will be within or below that resistance range. The main chart shows that the fib retracement from the second touch of wedge resistance to the third touch of the base, shown with the bolded black lines, has been important on the log scale. Which is important because most people don't use the log scale for DXY. There was a lot of wicking between 2010 and 2015 at the 0.236 level of 80.260 and when price broke out it got wicked right to the 0.618 level of 98.555. The ultimate targets for this formation are going to be between the 1.414 and 1.618 levels. I do think it is remarkable that the candle body of 1984 closed so closely to the 1.414 fib level shown. And speaking of remarkable coincidences the red zone of resistance I identified from the basic candle wick analysis is right at the 0.618 retracement of DXY from high to low. The amazing thing is I could be watching this pattern develop my whole life. It might make a decades long W pattern and retest the 70.689 level 20 years from now and when I am over 100 years old DXY W pattern could be performing at 275. Below is the effective federal funds rate. It is also in a wedge. Since oil futures went negative a while ago and there are lots of negative interest rates around I had to do preparations for scenarios where the fed funds rate went negative. Since that has not happened the next thought is this wedge structure will perform and interest rates will be at the yearly VSTOP again here shortly (speaking in yearly terms relative to the length of the wedge, which began really in the mid 1970s. Here is another oddity. I have the velocity of money (M2) here on the weekly time frame and it seems that it played out a perfect bull trap. I have a fib extension and somehow we see consolidations at key targets for ABC corrections. With interest rates on the rise, dxy on the rise and velocity of money over performing to the downside and reaching a major target any contraction of the money supply is going to have outsized responses to the broader economy. Speculating what is going to happen to different asset classes is a bit beyond the scope of this post so I will link some ideas of where I think Bitcoin and equities are likely to go as well as some other post that interest me. In general: lots of things are at upside targets and showing topping behavior. If you can't eat it it is likely to be sold off.
INDEX:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
Update on Bitcoin's Log Harmonic XABCD ButterflyBackground On May 1 Bitcoin had shot up to the 1.618 extension of XA and stalled there for a while and I posted my first log butterfly idea, which will be in the lined idea below. I was one of the first and few people warning that this price action was at a major target and we should be expecting a retrace. As part of my disaster scenario and personal development I checked the price action for harmonic patterns and I found that the fib levels matched a harmonic butterfly, but only on the log scale. Since then we can see strong profit taking above the 1.618 level with only a hint of a monthly candle body above the level. Now the price action stalling at $69,000 is mildly amusing, much like the SPX bottoming out in 2008 at $666, making you wonder just how juvenile the financial whales really are. Still, since there was a slightly higher high I have moved point D appropriately and therefor point E is a tad higher than in my original post. Technical Analysis As it seems we have a double top the log Harmonic Butterfly appears to remain valid. We remain part way through the month of December but I don't see much changing with the bearishness I see in the chart, or globally with the financial system. The image below shows your standard indicator set up for the MACD and RSI with some basic charting. I remember in 2018 we had a descending triangle and all the bulls saying we would get a cup and handle or a saucer formation. I was new to trading and got caught up in the hype myself. Those bullish formations? Didn't happen. Now we have an apparent double top at this major fib target. When we look for the indicators for some clarity we see a lot of bearishness to back up the bearish chart formation. I wrote down the full divergence primer just for the sake of being thorough, but we only really need the normal bearish divergence. Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher Highs on the price action but lower lows on a indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden Divergence (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action but a higher high on the indicator Bullish: Higher High on the price action but a lower high on the indicator The RSI and On Balance Volume both have normal divergence, with a higher high on the price action but a lower high on the indicator. With an asset like bitcoin which has been continually printing new coins for its whole existence the fact that we have lower OBV now is curious. The RSI divergence shown in purple from peak to peak suggest that we are more than likely going to see more downside leading to a MACD cross. I have been watching for that for a while. I remember when I was calling for a weekly MACD cross and people told me that wasn't going to happen. But guess what, it did. The OBV slipping the 10 is a very serious sign that buying has dropped off. It seems that we will have a very high chance the OBV will slip the 20 EMA as well. Historically when the OBV has been below the 20 on the mouthy it has been a great place to invest in crypto. Fundamental Analysis Two main driving assumptions behind this post is the idea that interest rates are going to go up at the same time DXY is going up as well. Why? The Federal Funds rate is in a massive long term falling wedge. If you don't view it on the monthly time frame or higher you can get some weird quirks in the data. What does this mean? It means that the rate that banks charge one another for overnight loans is going to go up. That means that broadly, all interest rates on dollar denominated debt is going to go up as well. Bitcoin by itself doesn't have any yield. It isn't going to be as relatively attractive in that environment as something giving you a coupon or a dividend or an interest payment. How the de-fi space will adapt to these increasing rates will be interesting. How people will assess risk with interest rates moving vis-a-vis bitcoin and crypto in general will also be very interesting. Likewise the Dollar is in a massive long term falling wedge. I found this wedge by putting the data on log scale, and now I see a few key analysis doing the same (after I twitted at them a couple of times). The Dollar is going to pump along with interest rates, the same way that can see happened in the late 70s and early 80s. I haven't shown it, but going into the peak of DXY and the Federal funds silver had just done a blow off top and entered a historic bear market. Equities were broadly flat until the Federal Funds rate began to decline and then things began to pump. Perhaps crypto is topping prior to the dxy and fed funds rate just like silver did. Another thing to watch is the velocity of money. The money supply is at an all time high and any small movements upward in the velocity of money is going to make anything you need very expensive, which probably isn't a good thing for intangible assets like crypto. A quick look at my alternative bearish scenario Quite Simply, the Monthly Keltner channel will provide support for monthly candle bodies it has done so far. The 200 week SMA has also done a very good job at providing support till now. Investing when the Stoch is so low has historically also been a great decision. If the monthly Keltner and 200w continue to hold then of course my idea is negated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
39
DXY just put the Dollar Milkshake back on the menuBackground For years I have been fascinated by the Dollar Milkshake Theory of Brent Johnson out of Santiago Capital. In the broadest strokes, there will be increased dollar demand as the fiat system collapses because all the other fiats will collapse and then the Dollar will be the last fiat standing before the fiat system is replaced (somehow). This leads to some oddities in theory. US assets/equities will go up in value against non-us assets while the dollar goes up itself as people seek a hedge against the strong dollar. International trade of equities and futures allows this to happen in a way that would be unfeasible just a few decades ago. And if for some reason you can't buy US equities? Then you buy anti-fiats like precious metals or whatever de-fi stable coin you can. Whenever the dollar rises Brent is praised for his theory and whenever it declines he is slagged. In either case he is humble and clarifies he has a theory and his company hedges against the theory and it isn't the whole portfolio. But DXY has put the Dollar Milkshake on the menu. Analysis Few things have been more successfully for me in my long term investments than use of the weekly and monthly bollinger bands when combined with some divergence, basic charting, and even a half ass reliable fundamental analysis. Please review my linked idea on chain-link for my best example thereof and an earlier prediction on DXY. Shown is the monthly chart of DXY with the monthly and weekly Bollinger bands. Checklist The Dollar Milkshake theory is AT LEAST some half assed fundamental theory. We were against both weekly and monthly Bollinger bands Basic charting shows zone that has flipped from resistance to support and we are now testing it as support again the MACD suggest a bullish cross of the sigil line is highly likely The MACD suggest that the MACD will cross above zero. Suppositions DXY at least reaches the purple trendline DXY thrust upwards mightily above the purple trendline and then attacks it again as support DXY battles its way valiantly though the grey area of resistance The Weekly Bollinger band will again act as resistance as DXY channels upward. Macro Devastation Perhaps the most devastating thing about our current environment is the effective federal funds rate is in a falling wedge. There was a while where I was supposing the nominal rate would go to zero but that turned out to not be the case. But the real interest rate has been zero by official stats, and by shadow stats, and by the fact I can get up to 11% on USD stable coins on various defi/staking platforms. If the dollar is rising and interest rates on dollar loans are rising this will cause havoc on a global stage. The financial news will be in hersterics and at no time will they blame fractional reserve banking or how central banks facilitate the addiction to sovereign debt. Oh well. Recommendations I don't give financial advice. I personally like digital currencies as opposed to digital stores of value for the next 18-24 months. Get rich or stay poor.
TVC:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
7
Technical Breakdown in DXY. STRONG & GROWING Fundamental DriversCheck out my DXY chart from November. DXY fell from 99, just under 100, all the way down to 95/94 in ~2 weeks. High correlation with the Fed cutting rates and yields falling. With the twin deficits set to GROW not shrink and the Fed's balance sheet set to GROW not shrink, and with interest rates set to FALL not rise, the path for the US dollar is looking more and more clear. Weakening dollar will mean foreign markets outperform US markets and rising commodity prices. Markets can still crash but they will crash in terms of gold. Look at the DJI to Gold ratio for reference. Quantitative easing from 2011-2015 did not work. For that reason I think we can easily take out 80 and 70 in the DXY. For the DXY to go on another bull market cycle there would have to be decent growth expectations in the US behind that. That's not happening. We are loaded up on massive amounts of debt. Growth rates are going lower not higher. Central bank balance sheet expansion (Counterfeiting/money printing) is going higher.
INDEX:DXYLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Have Federal Interest Rates Peaked? -1.8% projection.Simple chart showing the federal funds rates since 1955. As you can see the rate is currently in a falling wedge pattern which should eventually break to the upside. However given the conditions of the global economy, for now, we may very well be at the peak at the top of the channel with a downward move pending. If this happens to be the peak and feds continue to cut rates from here, we could see interest rates at -1.8% or lower by the end 2020 / beginning of 2021. The time is derived by the last two drops from the top to the bottom of the channel which took ~460 days.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by ttrending
131.5/132 AUG 3rd bear vertical on GLD in response to FOMCGLD, SPYDR Gold Shares ETF backed by the physical commodity, has increased dramatically following the dovish Fed sentiment out of yesterday's June FOMC meeting. Central banks worldwide have begun to indicate that they are willing to begin cutting rates, or to resume Quantitative Easing (QE) and balance sheet expansion. As Chairman Powell shifted away from the "patient" stance and indicated that changes could be imminent, saying that "the case for more accommodative policy has strengthened," markets reacted accordingly. Gold has risen on the premise that rate cuts are coming - with bond markets pricing in a 100% chance of at least one cut in the July FOMC meeting. As gold rises more, it does so on the pretense that there will be more monetary easing; if the sentiment in July isn't as dovish as hoped, then the price of gold, and thus the value of the GLD ETF, will decrease. Using the August 3rd expiry allows us to capture the reaction from the next FOMC meeting. Technically, the bear case is prominent: GLD is clearly overbought for a myriad of reasons. On both the day and month charts, GLD is trading above the upper Bollinger Band, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse just flipped over the candles, both stochastics have readings over 75 and both the RSI and MFI indicate values over 80. Done for a credit of 19 cents, there is a maximum profit of $19 reached below the short strike and max loss of $31 above the long strike, per contract.
AMEX:GLDShort
by LaurenTrading
EUR/USD Triangle After hitting our first TP on Friday (1.126) the pair is back trading inside the triangle after it it has recovered from the bearish breakout which didn't last long and therefore lost its significance. The main reasons behind this large recovery are : 1- Markets expecting the Fed to deliver a dovish statement on its last meeting in 2018. 2- EU and Italy reaching a deal on the country's budget. The triangle's range is becoming narrow and I expect a breakout after the Fed.. Any signal of a delay in 2019 rate hikes can send EUR/USD to 1.1445,1.147 and 1.15 in extension.
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
usd index (up) we have many technical analysis in this chart we have :- 1- head and shoulders pattern . 2- ABCD pattern . 3- support . 4- flag . and all of this technical give us expectation the USD will go up . tomorrow we have many news and pig news like :- 1- CPI m/m 2- Core CPI m/m 3- Core Retail Sales m/m 4- Retail Sales m/m 5- FOMC Economic Projections 6- Federal Funds Rate 7- FOMC Press Conference all of this news are very important than technical what will happen if this news Especial " Federal Funds Rate " are be greater than last time, USD will go to 97.80 and any pair against USD will fall down and i expect this will go happen tomorrow
TVC:DXYLong
by david.ayad2012
A Turning Point for USDCAD?The recent risk rally has encouraged commodity currencies higher. As crude ignores the globalized downturn in economic output and ongoing "pump at all costs" mantra of producers, the Canadian dollar has hit a three-month high against the dollar. Crude aside, traders have also factored in the fact that the potential for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada had dropped from 60 to 32 percent. Nevertheless, on a macro-standpoint, the slowdown in both the US and Canadian economies will strengthen; and traders could ditch the loonie for the save-haven greenback. The recent strength in the CAD does allow a more balance, two-way market. We are likely to see the USDCAD continue trending lower until risk appetite wanes. Price action has broken the upward trend that has lasted since May 2015. Support at 1.34 will likely be challenged prior to testing the 200-day EMA. The 20-day EMA has bearishly crossed the 50- and about to cross the 72-day EMA. The only problem I see with the current down move is: volume is increasingly dropping off and the pair is no longer overbought on longer time frames. This could cause traders to re-enter longs if the risk environment wanes causing a move back to 1.3770. Sentiment around crude and equities will remain important. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
1