Fedred — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Next 3 days will hurt unless ...I am marking the end of wave 2 with today's high post-Fed. Wave 2 retraced Wave 1's movement near 24% which was greater than the first quartile. My models are pointing at wave 3 to now last 3-6 days. The historical quartile extensions are listed with waves ending in 533 being yellow and waves ending in 33 being light blue. My bottom for now is likely between 3600-3636. We should take out the June lows in this wave. Still looking at a final bottom in late October below 3400. Wave 3 should do a bulk of this work so going below 3600 may need to occur in order to get below 3400 later next month. Fed will meet right before election day and will likely attempt to not rock the election boat; they may only raise .50 or .75 at that time. I still project the final bottom around election day and then we fly much higher toward next summer. Another possible catalyst for upward movement could be an end to fighting in Ukraine. Inflation is not going to get better with continued inaction, so a positive black swan is also possible.

Time To See If Elliott Wave Can Predict This Recession If we are beginning wave 3, I have us in Sub-Millenial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3. I alphanumerically refer to this wave as 152A53 Intermediate wave 2 met all of its targeted movement and it bounced perfectly off of the median wave 1 retracement. With all goals met, the major drops are scheduled next. It all begins with the inflation numbers pre-market tomorrow and then followed by a week of speculation on what the Fed will do. I have both of these events occurring in Intermediate wave 3 and each event is a catalyst for the pending 700 points, Elliott Wave Theory is hinting at dropping over the next month. If this movement does not occur, my wave count is wrong or EW is complete $#*&^#%$. I have highlighted potential extension points based on historical movement for waves ending in 53 and A53. For waves ending in 53: 75% of the time (the first quartile of data) wave 1's movement is surpassed by 147.99% 50% of the time (the median) wave 1's movement is surpassed by 166.31% 25% of the time (the third quartile) wave 1's movement is surpass by 209.7% all of these levels are indicated by the yellow extension lines For waves ending in A53: Quartile 1 is 161.34% (near the "perfect ratio") Median is 193.26% Quartile 3 is 267.24% all of these levels are indicated by the light blue extension lines. My target bottom is somewhere around 3595, but we will see how intense the selling is. This could also look like capitulation selling, but I think that will actually occur in 2024. I will continue to re-evaluate as we work our way through this.

Update For This Week I tried to study the drop on July 22nd to determine if there were 13 waves for a corrective Minor wave 4 or if there were 21 waves for the first wave 1 in Primary wave 5 down. I saw the former more than the latter. If this is true, my previous forecasts are only off by 3 days and the levels to which they finish will remain with the exception of the wave 4 to wave 5 duration calculations. If the markings on this chart are true, the market should leap up tomorrow. Consumer confidence numbers come out 30 minutes into the session, however, the data is delayed as it does not depict current consumer conditions. A jubilation of this reading could get us up to and above the current recent high of 4012. This would mean the final top would likely arrive before the Fed announcement on Wednesday at 2 pm eastern time. This chart would be wrong and the complete prior forecast is valid if we drop below 3940 and then 3902. Tomorrow should tell us where we are heading this week. We should ultimately begin moving down toward 3400 by Friday.