Fedwatch — Trading Ideas on TradingView

US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025 📊 Chart Context Current Yield: \~4.50% Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones. 📉 Key Technical Observations Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise) TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance. TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone. TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection) Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate Cuts / Recession) Support 1 (3.91%): 23.6% Fib retracement, key structural demand. Support 2 (3.22%): 38.2% retracement Support 3 (2.74%): 48.6% Support 4 (2.12%): 61.8% Support 5 (1.33%): 78.6% Forecast Scenarios (Based on Arrow Colors & Pathways): Red Boxes & Zones: Critical Resistance / Reaction Zones These are strong confluence levels that may trigger pullbacks before continuation. Green Arrows – Bullish Projection with Pullbacks Scenario A: Price may rally toward the 5.0% TP1 zone but experience a temporary pullback before continuing toward the 6.10% TP2 zone. Scenario B: After a short-term correction near 6.10%, if bullish momentum sustains, yield may spike toward the 7.70–7.91% TP3 zone. These movements reflect a stair-step advance with corrective legs between key levels — bullish macro outlook with intermittent risk events. Pink Arrows – Bearish Pullbacks & Correction Phases: Scenario A: Initial rejection from current zone (~4.5%) may send yields down to the 3.91% support confluence. Scenario B: If support at 3.91% fails, yields may further retrace to 3.22% or 2.74%, activating the lower fib retracement zones. After stabilizing in these zones, a rebound may begin and realign with the broader bullish structure. These pink arrows suggest that even in bullish macro cycles, the market may correct deeply before resuming its ascent. Macro & Fundamental Context: 1.Fed Pivot Dynamics: With inflation cooling and unemployment ticking higher, markets price in possible Fed rate cuts by late 2025. 2.Bond Demand Outlook: Recession fears and de-risking scenarios trigger massive flows into long-term Treasuries, pulling yields lower. 3.Global Liquidity Conditions: Lower yields = increased liquidity = favorable conditions for crypto, gold, and risk assets. 4.Hawkish Risk: Any oil shock or CPI surprise can pause or reverse easing expectations, pushing yields up. Effects on Gold & Crypto (as scenarios play out): ↗ If US10Y Yields RISE to 6% or 7.7% (TP2/TP3) * Gold: Likely to suffer due to rising real yields; institutional demand weakens. * Crypto: Bearish; risk assets sell off amid higher opportunity cost and tighter liquidity. * Dollar (DXY): May strengthen, applying more pressure on gold & crypto. * Strategy: Favor defensive positioning. Look for shorting rallies or hedge exposures in BTC, ETH, and high-beta alts. ↘ If US10Y Yields FALL toward 3.2% to 2.1% (Support 2–4): * Gold: Bullish. Lower yields reduce holding costs and boost safe-haven appeal. * Crypto: Bullish. Liquidity rotation into high-risk assets often follows easing cycles. * DXY: Likely to weaken, further supporting BTC and altcoins. * Strategy: Look to accumulate crypto during dips. Gold may offer breakout opportunities. Rangebound Near 4.5% (Current Zone): * Gold: Mixed; capped upside until clear direction emerges. * Crypto: Ranges or whipsaws. Watch for breakout signals from BTC.D and TOTAL3. * Strategy: Stay cautious. Monitor DXY and macro events for confirmation. Related Reference Charts TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap Weekly BTC.D – Bitcoin Dominance Weekly

Yen Step Back, Two Steps Forward Despite sharp inflation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left YCC unchanged on March 10th. This was Haruhiko Kuroda’s last meeting as BOJ Governor. Japan is still struggling to stoke growth at risk of sustained stagflation. Hence, his decision to leave rates intact was no surprise. Kuroda left the YCC unchanged. Analysts expected him to scrap the YCC so that the new incoming governor, Kazuo Ueda could start afresh. Hopes of change are now expected at the next BOJ policy meeting on April 27th. Kuroda leaves behind a mixed legacy. His strong monetary stimulus lifted the Japanese economy out of deflation at the cost of hurting bank profits with ultra-low rates. Growth has remained tepid. Kuroda has been a source of stability. More than what was needed in the staid land of the rising sun. Now, the monetary policy landscape is expected to shift as Ueda takes charge. New BOJ leadership and an aggressive US Fed will create near term weakness in JPY followed by medium term strength. This case study analyses a two staged positioning in CME Japanese Yen Futures to harness yield from anticipated currency moves. Change of Guard at the BOJ Under the new governor, definitive shifts are afoot. Inflation in Japan is non-negative. Really? Yes. Not only non-negative but also at levels unseen in 43 years. Kuroda may not have radically transformed Japanese economy, but he managed to revive its equity market. The risk of uncertainty and volatility exists once he leaves the office. Markets are used to perennial Japanese low inflation, and to a consistent central bank leadership. Both are now going or gone. Another big shift is BOJ's more definitive independence. While separate from Government of Japan, BOJ was seen as being an integral part of Abenomics to snap out of deflation. The Kishida-Ueda relationship is different. Prime Minister Kishida has not outlined a particular direction on macroeconomic policy. Politically, the LDP is far from united, not least on fiscal and monetary policies. Kishida’s base of support within the party is fragile, and his approval ratings have been in a prolonged slump. As a BOJ governor, Ueda comes from an unconventional background. He is the first academic to assume leadership of BOJ. He has not managed a large organization. He is knowledgeable about monetary policy and is a protege of Stanley Fisher. What, then, can we expect from Ueda? He is not convinced that inflation is sticky. Ueda maintains that “…inflation is led by cost-push factors” and “it will still take time to achieve sustainable inflation.” It does hint that he isn't someone who will make any sudden major moves. That said, in a parliamentary hearing earlier this month, Ueda hinted that the current YCC was unlikely to survive. Engaging the market is essential he said before adding that “in some cases, adding a surprise factor is unavoidable.” There is growing evidence emerging from the annual “shunto” (a big wage negotiation between unions and employers) that workers are asking for the largest raise in base pay in 25 years. Some Japanese employers have already raised wages sharply higher with case in point being Fast Retailing (a Japanese listed firm and parent company of Uniqlo) which raised pay by 40% earlier this year. Until now, it has been possible to attribute Japan’s inflation to the rise in the cost of imports driven by weak yen. Big wage increases would change that. However, the latest data, published Tuesday, shows that wage growth is not rising as fast as expected. In cash terms, it reached the highest level in decades last year, but the January figure was far lower. Real wages adjusted for inflation have been falling the most since 2009. Balancing growth while keeping inflation under control is not a small feat. Next BOJ policy meeting is more than a month away. Meanwhile, the US Fed is becoming more hawkish in its fight against domestic inflation. Another rate hike by the US Fed will further weaken the fragile Yen. The US macro environment is making an already complicated situation even more difficult. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank along with closure of Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank is testing the Fed’s wit. US Inflation continues to remain hot and three times the Fed’s target. With the liquidity backstop in place, the Fed is likely to jack up its rate by another 25 basis points when it meets on March 22nd. CME’s FedWatch tool pegs the likelihood of that happening at 82% as of March 14th. Against that backdrop, Ueda could do one of the three once in office – (1) further widen the 10-year JGB interest rate band, (2) target shorter term yields & thereby reduce JGB holdings, and (3) abandon yield targeting altogether. Options Markets are Bullish JPY/USD Options on CME’s Japanese Yen futures have an overall Put/Call ratio of 0.56 across all expiries, indicating that investors are expecting the Yen to weaken. In sharp contrast though, options for the July contract show a deviation from the trend with a Put/Call ratio of 2.6x. This coincides with the release of the 2nd Outlook Report by the BOJ after Ueda takes over, indicating the market expectation on Yen’s reversal versus USD starting July. How much more JGB can BOJ keep buying to sustain YCC? Can this last? Last December, the BOJ tweaked its YCC policy, to allow the 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) yield to move 50 basis points (bps) on either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25 bps band. The move stunned markets as BOJ hinted at monetary tightening after having stuck to its ultra-loose policy stance for a long time. YCC tweak spilled over into January as BOJ was forced to purchase a record $182B of JGB to defend its higher yield cap from breaching the ceiling of 0.50%. The BOJ now holds more than 50% of JGB, making the situation ever more unsustainable. Adding to the JGB burden, BOJ also owns the majority of domestically listed exchange traded funds (ETFs). Besides massive JGB purchases, the BOJ remodeled in January a funds-supply operation into a tool to prevent yields from rising rapidly. Beyond the current short-term loans, the BOJ amended the rules to offer funds extending up to 10 years with variable rates. In January, BOJ provided loans of 3T Yen in the January offer before extending the terms of the loan to 10-year for subsequent loans. In February, BOJ tweaked the fund-supply policy terms, including the quadrupling of minimum lending fee from 0.25%-1%, to limit the short-selling of JGB’s, this indicates that the BOJ is having to use all tools at their disposal in order to defend JGB yields from rising above their defined cap. The BOJ defended yet another attack on the YCC again in February prompting a further $2.2B of JGB purchases to keep yields from breaching the ceiling. Economists anticipate that Ueda will fundamentally revisit YCC before BOJ lands in crisis. Ueda starts on April 9th. It is unlikely that he will make any radical moves instantly. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell is going all guns blazing to tame inflation down. Jobs data released last Friday showed the creation of 311,000 jobs smashing expectations of 225,000 jobs indicating a tight labor market. A strong labor market risks fueling a wage-inflation spiral, leaving the Fed with no choice but to jack up rates further. Two Stage Trade Setup to Gain from Near Term Weakness & Medium-Term Strength CME’s Japanese Yen Futures provides investors an exposure of 12.5 million Japanese Yen for every lot with the price quoted in USD per JPY increment. Every 0.0000005 change in JPY provides an increment of $6.25 in contract value. With the USD expected to strengthen in the near-term, JPY will weaken until the next policy meeting on April 27th. As such a short position using CME Japanese Yen futures expiring in June (6JM2023) would provide a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.6x. Stage 1 Entry: 0.0075390 Target Level: 0.0074550 Stop Level: 0.0076670 Profit at Target: $1,050 Loss at Stop: $1,725 Reward-to-Risk: 0.6x Stage 2 Thereafter, if Ueda starts to steer Japan’s monetary policy stance differently, JPY will start to strengthen in the medium term. Following from a short position in the near term, a subsequent long position in CME’s Japanese Yen futures will allow the investor to gain from the strengthening JPY. Entry: 0.0074550 Target Level: 0.0081445 Stop Level: 0.0072775 Profit at Target: $8,620 Loss at Stop: $2,220 Reward-to-Risk: 3.88x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.

Is WTI Crude Set to Rebound In this week’s case study, we analyse a long position on Micro WTI Crude Futures (February) with a potential target of $82.30/barrel and a stop loss at $67/barrel, yielding a reward to risk ratio of 1.15. Last week, we delivered a case study with a short position on WTI Crude Oil futures with entry at $77.80/barrel and exit at $73.65/barrel. This worked as planned with the target price being triggered within two days. Now with price trading at $74.10/barrel and strong support between $67-$72/barrel, this case study argues that this presents an interesting opportunity to enter into a long position in WTI Crude Oil futures. Bolstered by demand from China which is expected to recover, a long position in Crude Oil Futures provides us hedge in the medium-long term against limited downside risk. Replenishment of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (S PR) The Biden administration is reported to replenish its S PR between the price range of $67-$72/barrel. WTI Crude is currently trading in that price range which could trigger S PR replenishment. More than 200 million barrels has been drawn down to supplement the demand for US crude oil amid high international prices. However, it is worth noting that according to the US Department of Energy, there are no active purchase offers yet. China Easing COVID Curbs Last week, China announced the most significant relaxation of its COVID curbs since the pandemic first erupted three years ago. Rules covering quarantine times, movement of people, and lockdown as well as testing were eased in the country. Nevertheless, COVID cases in China remain high. Although official numbers have fallen to a monthly low, straining medical infrastructure points to high level of infected cases. China is the second largest consumer of Crude Oil in the world, although they have largely been buying Russian Crude Oil at a discount, as demand increases, it will likely spill over into purchases of international oil as well impacting prices of Crude Oil. Fed Rate Decision All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due on December 14th. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% probability of a 50-bps (0.5%) rate hike at this meeting, slowing from the record 75-bps rate hikes announced at previous four meetings. Over the past two weeks, economic data points to limited impact of Fed rate hikes leading to fears that the Fed may continue with 75-bps rate hike. Tanker Delays Over the past week, several tankers carrying Russian crude oil were halted at the Turkish strait due to confusion surrounding the G7’s imposed sanctions on Russian crude tanker insuranc e. As of Monday, this jam started to be cleared. However according to a Bloomberg report, some 12 tankers had still not submitted the necessary documents confirming insu rance liabilities. As these delays might take more time to resolve, this might positively impact demand for WTI Crude Oil. EIA Short Term Energy Outlook The US Energy Information Administration (E IA) released its short-term energy outlook last week in which they stated that refinery utilization for 2023 was expected to remain at a five-year high. Although this will lead to lower prices for distillate and other petroleum products, it ensures high demand for WTI Crude leading to a strong price support. Technical Signals from the COT Report WTI Crude is currently trading at $70.67/barrel, which is right below its S1 support according to the Pivot indicator which stands at $71.48/barrel. The range of $67-72 provides strong support as mentioned before. Both RSI and Stochastic indicators point to oversold which could indicate a recovery in the short term. In the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from December 6th, we can see that money moved out of swap positions to directional positions. Long positions held by managed money increased sharply by 11.9%. Overall long position OI increased by 4.4%. Still, this was on par with the increase in short position OI which also increased by 4.4%. Short OI saw producer positions increase far more than long OI. Trade Setup CME’s NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude oil. They have a maintenance margin of $750 at the time of writing and provide a cost-efficient way of getting exposures to the movements in Crude Oil prices. Long Position on CME NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures – February 2023 Contract Entry: $74.10/barrel Take Profit Target 1: $85.00/barrel Take Profit Target 2: $82.30/barrel Stop Loss: $67.00/barrel Establishing a long position on Micro WTI Futures (February) with an entry price of $74.10/barrel with a potential take profit target of $82.3 could provide exposure to a recovery in a WTI crude prices. This would yield 109.3% returns or $820. A stop loss at $67.0/barrel could protect against a further downward move. This is placed at the lower end of the expected range of S PR replenishment which is expected to provide strong support. The stop loss, if triggered, would lead to a loss of $710 or 94.6%, providing a reward risk ratio of 1.15. Alternatively, holding the position until the second target of $85/barrel would yield $1,090 in profit or 145.3%. CME’s full-size NYMEX WTI futures provide exposure to 1,000 barrels of WTI crude with a maintenance margin of $7,300 at the time of writing and provide improved liquidity in case of larger positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.

Still Waters Run Deep - Bitcoin Set To Go Bullish?BACKGROUND Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in decline for the past year with price crashing as much as 20% on a single day in June. Still, the low set of $17,750 on 18 June (Saturday & hence unseen on CME chart) has turned out to be a resilient support level. BITCOIN PRICES RESILIENT RELATIVE TO S&P500 (SPX) and NASDAQ-100 (NDX) NDX and SPX with which BTC is generally correlated have both set new lows since June while BTC has been traded within the same range (of $18k - $20k). This again shows remarkable price resilience. Analysis from market experts points to significant deleveraging within the crypto industry and hence the perception that crypto prices might have bottomed out. SHRINKING IMPLIED VOLATILITY Thirty-day forward implied volatility is at record low. Low premiums to acquire call options to secure outsized gains from price break-out is seen on non-traditional crypto derivatives exchanges. Call-put ratio of 2.09 on Deribit points to 2.09 calls for every 1 put, underscoring the bullishness in BTC. However, call-put ratio on CME is 0.362 at the time of this writing. BULLISH ONCHAIN SIGNALS Turning our attention to on-chain analysis, we notice that Long Term Holders GLASSNODE:BTC_ACTIVE1Y (those who held BTC for at least 12 months) now represent nearly two-thirds of total BTC supply. This again points to further selling pressure being limited. BULLISH TECHNICAL INDICATORS Talking of technicals, BTC/USD is showing a falling wedge formation, suggesting the possibility of a breakout. BTC has retested its June support at DXY local maximum. As the USD is the primary base currency against which BTC is traded, the value of the Dollar strongly impacts BTC price. The DXY has been rallying all year with an unprecedented rate hiking cycle. However, the DXY has started to show a broadening ascending wedge formation, signaling the softening of rate hiking cycle. The CME FedWatch tool currently suggests three more rate hikes are likely by 22nd March 2023. Anticipation is that each of these upcoming hikes will be incrementally lower relative to the last four outsized rate rises. TRADE SET-UP CME’s Bitcoin futures for December are currently discounted relative to spot at the time of this writing, offering investors an opportunity for a long position - amid a macroeconomic backdrop which poses a significant threat to risk assets such as BTC. With that backdrop, an entry around $20,770 with a stop loss at $17.7k (the June low) might provide a compelling trade set-up. Profit could be taken at previous bear market rally highs of $22.7k and $25k delivering a risk reward ratio of 1.38 and 0.63, respectively. CASE STUDY WITH 1 LOT OF CME Micro Bitcoin Futures One lot CME Micro Bitcoin Futures provides exposure to 0.10 BTC. CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring January 2023 requires a maintenance margin of USD 528 per lot. Entry at $20,770 and take profit at $22,700 would result in $193 in profits with a return on capital of 36.5%. However, if the trade turns sour triggering a stop-loss at $17,700, it would lead to a loss of $307 amounting to a loss of 58%. Investors must take note that when prices plunge sharply, stop-losses might be triggered at levels way below the set levels inflating realised losses. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.

Gold trade idea, base on US calendar data print Weekly gold analysis 📌 Key points and overview: Technical view, can range between 1730$ and 1764$ Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold. 📝 Fundamental Analysis: After the sharp rise of gold, last week we saw the correction of gold in the range of 1730 dollars. The correction was due to lower-than-expected inflation data for the United States. But after that, the re-decline of the US dollar and the retreat of US bond yields helped gold to move slightly higher and reach the $1,760 range. But for this week. In incoming week all economic data from the US are expected to be lower than the previous value. it makes the retail traders inclined to sell the dollar, and therefore in the short term we will see the growth of gold, but we have to wait for the result of the actual data. Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that markets have priced in a 70% chance of a 50bp FED rate hike in December. As a result, good economic data will have less impact on the rise of the dollar, while bad economic data can severely downward pressure for the US dollar. 📉 Technical view: From a technical point of view, gold was able to establish itself above the range of $1730. It can range between 1730$ and 1764$ Also, the price is currently trading above the moving average of 200, which shows that the bullish bias stays intact. 1705$ and 1734$-1730$ are important support levels. 1760$ and 1780$ are important resistance. 📰 Important calendar events: ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, JOB OPENINGS, HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS and ISM PMI On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish labor market data for the month of November. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline by 39,000 following growth of 239,000 in October. A print of less than 200,000 will likely weigh on the US dollar and push gold higher. A disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Thursday could signal a smaller interest rate hike for the Federal Reserve. If the market has such an assessment, it will reduce the yield of US bonds, which is extremely beneficial for the rise of gold. On Thursday, the ISM Institute will release the manufacturing PMI data for November. The PMI is expected to drop to 49.8 from 50.2 in October. If the ISM PMI report shows that price pressures ease in November, the US dollar may come under selling pressure. And in this scenario, gold prices can rise in short-term reactions

As policies continue to diverge…For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community. Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC remains dovish, continuing with its easing stance. The result? USDCNH trading beyond the 6.9 level, surpassing both our target levels. With the next Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we think it’s time to review this idea again. The CME FedWatch Tool allows us to gauge what market participants are expecting the Fed to do. The prevalent consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to raise rates till the end of the year before holding rates at the 3.75 – 4.00 % level for the next year. On the other hand, the PBoC has continued to ease, cutting reserve requirement ratios & lowering its medium-term lending facility. With China still battling Covid via lockdowns, persistently low inflation numbers, and weak economic numbers, we see further easing on the cards from PBoC. Looking at the charts, the USDCNH pair has just completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. After breaking out to the upside and a brief pull-back, prices continued upwards with strong momentum. Using classical charting techniques, the target levels for the breakout can be set to the distance of the high and low of the symmetrical triangle and applied to the top of the triangle. With the target price of 7.1180, there is still upside for this trade. It seems that policy divergence will remain for these two major economies, which is likely to strengthen the USD and weaken the CNH further, driving up the USDCNH pair. Using technical to identify target levels where we will be comfortable, we think that there is room for more upside. Entry at 6.9500, stop at 6.8545. Target at 7.1180. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com