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FEZ

US stocks are back leadingWorld markets bottomed on Spetember 2022 and during the recovery, European stocks AMEX:FEZ outperformed US stocks TVC:DJI for 9 months Nos, for the last 3 months, US stocks are back in the leadership as the DJI/FEZ ratio broke its downtrend back in April; just weeks before the AMEX:FEZ broke its trendline That is why relative strength is so important, sometimes gives leading signals And for the last 3 months, energy AMEX:XLE has been the leading sector, with coal being the ledading industry, the thing is that stocks like NYSE:CEIX , NYSE:AMR and NYSE:NRP are already extended Let's wait for a base formation in these leading stocks
AMEX:FEZ
by dpuleo19
LVMUY -- shortI am looking for a short entry to LVMUY based on the double top pattern. Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy (LVMH) presents with two conflicting chart patterns, which are drawn using @LonesomeTheBlue's excellent HPP indicator at the default settings. Based on the statistics provided by that same indicator the Anti-Gartley is the slightly more compelling one with an 80% win rate (4/5) and a profit factor of 23.44, while the double top has a 71% win rate (5/7) and a profit factor of 12.48. So, why then do I want to go short? For three reasons: Per LVMH's last quarterly earnings release, the company derives 34% of its revenue from Asia ex-Japan. The bulk of that presumably from China. Given the widely reported problems within the Chinese economy, I believe that many Chinese consumers will choose to avoid spending on the conspicuous luxury products that LVMH is famous for. LVMH has a very close correlation (81%, over the trailing 2 years) with FEZ, the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF. This ETF has outperformed the US market in 2022 and through mid-July, 2023, but has since started to lose traction. I expect that the dollar strength of the recent weeks will continue, unless tomorrow's speech by chairman Powell offers clear indications that the Fed hiking cycle is concluded. This dollar strength is ultimately bearish for US listed equities. This point also hints at one reason I might choose not to activate the trade. If the reaction to the Jackson Hole speech tomorrow is very bullish, I may reassess. For the purpose of this idea, my price target will be the level suggested by @LonesomeTheBlue's HPP indicator, i.e. 154.32. Stop loss will be around 180, roughly corresponding to the 23.6% retracement level of the run from September 27, 2022, to April 21, 2023.
OTC:LVMUYShort
by matthias
Addendum to “The Turning Tides”Following our initial publication, we've received some astute feedback that warrants further and more in-depth discussion. A reader correctly noted that the DAX and Euro STOXX 50 differ in their treatment of dividends - a detail we initially glossed over for simplicity's sake. The DAX is a performance index, including dividends, while the Euro STOXX 50 is a price index, excluding dividends. Understandably, it's a distinction that does play a role in their historical performances. It's also worth noting that a more apple-to-apple comparison to the DAX Index future might be the Euro STOXX 50 Index Total Return future (TESX). However, we originally chose the more popular FESX future due to its better liquidity and much longer history (TESX was only launched in 2016). In addition, the availability of Micro future contracts also makes it more retail friendly. Our primary exploration focused on overarching macroeconomic factors and sectoral shifts, which are pivotal to understanding the relative performance between the indices. However, dividends' contribution to long-term performance is undeniably significant. Therefore, it is prudent to revisit our DAX-to-STOXX50 comparison, this time adjusting for dividends. For this purpose, we've chosen the SPDR® EURO STOXX 50® ETF (FEZ) as a proxy for a dividend-adjusted STOXX50. The ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, generally correspond to the total return performance of the STOXX50 Index, and it has been around since 2002. One thing to note about FEZ is that it’s USD-denominated; therefore, we need to consider EUR/USD exchange rate move over the years in order to get as close a proxy as possible. Here's an updated chart of the DAX vs. the dividend and exchange rate adjusted STOXX50 ETF. The revised perspective still affirms DAX's relative outperformance over the past decade, although less pronounced than the FDAX vs FESX futures comparison suggests. On a closer look at the ratio between the DAX and the dividend-adjusted FEZ, a clear and massive topping pattern emerges, and it has arguably broken the neckline support. In other words, it appears that the DAX is likely going to continue underperforming the STOXX50 on a dividend-adjusted basis. (Due to certain technical limitations on TradingView, the following chart is presented as dividend and exchange rate adjusted FEZ/FDAX but on an inverted scale. Effectively, this means we're still viewing the FDAX/FEZ relationship.) This finer detail serves as a reminder of the multifaceted complexity within financial markets and the multitude of factors influencing asset performance. It also underscores the invaluable contribution of reader feedback, enabling us to deliver deeper, more nuanced market analyses. We deeply appreciate your active engagement and eagerly anticipate further enriching discussions.
F
by inspirante
play $FEZ for a bounceFEZ bounced right off the volume shelf where the POC is as well. It looks like it's going to have another V-shaped recovery after selling off heavily. Its RSI is oversold, and MACD looks like it could be beginning to turn around. Overall the weekly chart looks good. It may be smart to wait for FEZ to crack $40.50 or $41 on high volume for extra confirmation. One could argue that there was a morning star reversal pattern if you look at the candles of the most recent potential V-shaped bottom.
AMEX:FEZLong
by EBITDAtiger
Above the big resistance dating back Dec 2007!I find AMEX:FEZ has been fairly accurate with the cycle analysis. You can see this tracing back on the chart over weeks and it sits almost perfectly with each dip (i've marked major ones in a yellow circle on the cycle). Feeling very good about FEZ also because the ETF crossed a major resistance which was the Big Red Line. Big Red line: Dec 07 all time high. Re-tested this move during Feb 18, Feb 2020 before the big Covid dip Next resistance: Green dotted line: This tests the highs set on Apr 19, Jun 19, and Jan 2020. I strongly believe FEZ will retest this line close to Feb-Apr 2021 based on cycle analysis. Price Target: $44.78 IF FEZ crosses the Green dotted line, the next resistance is: Blue dotted line: Traces the Highs tested Dec 09, Apr 11, Jun 14. Realistically I don't think we will see that price until 2021 second half. Price target: $47 Please share your thoughts and hit the like button for support.
AMEX:FEZLong
by Karam08
Near the money Strangle on Euro Stocks (FEZ ETF)We have the French election coming up and other than my trades on FXE I didn't have much on play for that. The IV Rank on FEZ is pretty high at 77 and I am selling the strangle with 30 days to go. After the first part of the election we might get a decent volatility. I am betting that Euro companies won't be impacted as much and I can get paid on the expensive premium. Sold the 35/36 Strangle for $2.03 per contract. 55% probability of profit.
AMEX:FEZ
by AlexanderGotay
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: EWY, FEZ, FXE, AND OIH/XOP/XLEWith VIX in another ebb and a paucity of high quality premium selling earnings plays in the making for next week with both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility, I'm looking at exchange traded funds instead for potential plays. For instance, EWY, the South Korea exchange traded fund, makes sense in the current geopolitical environment, and its implied volatility rank and implied volatility reflect this, coming in at 55/22. It doesn't meet my usually standards of >70 and >35, but sometimes the market doesn't allow you to be picky. The June 16th 56/59/65/68 iron condor brings in .81 at the mid (not quite up to my usual 1/3rd the width of the wings snuff); alternatively, the June 16th 57/62/62/67 iron fly brings in 2.76. A drawback is that this instrument only has monthlies, a situation I'm not fond of ... . With French election finals on the horizon on May 7th, another play that makes sense against the backdrop of "news," is FEZ (Euro Stoxx 50) (49/21). However, I previously attempted to get a fill of an iron fly before the primaries, and it was quite pesky, particularly on the call side. Currently, I'm unable to get a mid price quote for the June 9th 34.5/37.5/37.5/40.5 iron fly or a similar setup in the June 16th expiry due to the fact that the long calls where I want to set up are no bid. With FXE (the Euro proxy), which I tend to play as I would play EURUSD, I would go directionally short. The background implied volatility is so low that it just doesn't make sense as a straightforward premium selling play since the contraction that's usually a feature of these plays is likely to be minor; moreover, I have a directional assumption in a tightening Fed environment versus a loose to easing ECB environment (bearish). There are a couple of ways to play it: (a) ATM short call verts where the break even is around 106 (e.g., the June 16th 105/108 short call vert; 1.20 cr; BPE 1.80; BE at 106.20), legging in small in the event it rips higher on a Macron win (currently, the likely outcome); (b) a call diagonal that gives you some flexibility on the short call side of things (e.g., a June 16th 107 short call; Sept 15th 110 long call; .07 cr; 2.93 BPE) without exposing you to downside risk in the event that the Euro caves in at some point on dollar strength or Euro weakness. Lastly, I've got eyeballs on oil. It's dipped somewhat dramatically off highs, so I'm looking at various bullish plays in OIH, XOP, and/or XLE, all of which track oil prices somewhat religiously. Currently, I'm still working an XOP put diagonal, but am amenable to getting into another XOP play. (Put diagonal: XOP June 16th 33 short put; Dec 15th 27 long put; .10 credit at the mid; 5.90/contract BPE; PMCC: XOP June 16th 37 short call/Dec 15th 24 long call; 10.82 db).
AMEX:EWY
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, FEZ, XLV, AND XRTWith four weeks or so until the next batch of earnings, I'm briefly turning my attention to exchange-traded funds to see if there's anything I can play to bridge the gap between earnings seasons. As with the previous several weeks, there isn't much; only three are near or above the 70th percentile for implied volatility over the past six months: FEZ, with an implied volatility rank of 86, and a background implied volatility of 20; XLV (68/17) (no surprise there; some friskiness associated with the failed Repeal and Replace measure); and XRT (67/22). I will look to work XLV and XRT with iron flies, possibly, but I may go directional on FEZ, since it's meant to replicate the performance of the Euro Stoxx 50. The other possibility is SNAP. It hasn't been on the block long enough for it to have a "6 month" metric of anything, but its background implied volatility is at 59%, and that's somewhat high for this market. Because of its potential for rippage, I think the best play in that is directional or where there is no directional risk on one side or the other (put diagonal, Jade Lizard, Big Liz). I'll putz with possible SNAP setups here and post separately if something looks particularly attractive ... .
NYSE:SNAP
by NaughtyPines
2
GOING FLAT ON IWM/SPY SETUPS IN ADVANCE OF BREXITAlthough I always hate to miss putting on trades in a high volatility environment and generally don't like to exit setups merely because "something is happening," Brexit may be one of those special situations where it is likely that whichever way Brexit goes, the movement may be overly large, whether it takes the form of a relief rally on Bremain, or a significant downturn on Brexit vote ... . Moreover, I would also like to devote some attention to plays in the non-US markets, so I'm watching the options playable Euro ETF's like FEZ (Euro Stoxx 50), HEDJ (Europe Hedged), EWG (Germany), EWU (UK), EFA (MSCI EAFE) and EWQ (France) (they basically all have the same trajectory; the question is which ones will be reasonably liquid to play via options ... ).
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
Pound Sterling and CABLE WEAKNESS is Signaling Monetary SurpriseRE: Global Macro Update Regarding European Union, #ECB, and UK The way the #Euro is strengthening relative to the Pound, and particularly the way the #CABLE $GBPUSD cross-rate is falling out of bed is about to unleash shock-waves of negative #sentiment through the European Euro STOXX Equity Markets $FEZ. According to RunningAlpha.com Capital Markets Intelligence, this currency market action is portending a monetary surprise announcement; and any rate hike in Europe to stem a soon to be out of control falling CABLE would backfire, as it would just put dangerous downward pressure on UK's GDP and Britain's Industrial production, ultimately further weakening the #Pound #Sterling Best regards, Efrem -- Looking for better times ahead in the USA after this initial start of the year shock in USA equity markets abates in the not too distant future ( as indicated in prior memos at Running Alpha.com; as the situation rapidly deteriorates in Europe, capital will likely migrates out of Europe into the USA in earnest.
FX:SPX500Short
by runningalpha
France: No confluence short or the art of patience IIConfluence area is a bit higher, but price reached a polarity zone, where through the years changed from support to resistance enough times to mark her as area of interest. Fresh visit to this area has most of the times the probabilities leaning towards to rejection, before maybe higher, gun the shorts - like mine - and go deeper inside the confluence area. In such a case, according to PA there, a second opportunity for the shorts will be given and who knows, another note of self discipline and practice patience will be written again. The trend is clearly up but a confirmation of the evening star will provide comfort to the trade. Cheers Panos
FX:FRA40Short
by pantheo