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Fibonacci

The Big Banks are in BIG TROUBLEAs you can see on this weekly chart, the XLF has been in this steady up trend since October 2023. It bounced off this upward slopping trendline 3 different times and then finally broke through it on the 4th hit, then came back up to test the underside of the trendline as resistance. It did get back above the trendline briefly last month, but it ended up being a bull trap as it fell back below the trendline and is now testing it as resistance once again and is currently being rejected. A Fibonacci retrace shows the 0.786 fib level also lines up with this area giving added confluence, as well as RSI divergence that I have highlighted. Massive Massive resistance in this area and so much room for potential downside. I see this trade as an extremely high probability of playing out. The options market agrees with me as well.
AMEX:XLFShort
by bradc1984
OTHERS data points to biggest ALT-Season Good Day Investors and traders, This the OTHERS on the weekly and I have taken some measured moves in what could be expected in time and price. The OTHERS chart in my opinion is the last form of the higher risk curve which generally happens at the very end of cycles The others does not include the top ten crypto, so it a very good form of risk on. I have been looking at the OTHERS chart fairly often of recent times because this is the time for it to really outshine Bitcoin and lead the market with fairly explosive gains. I have marked a couple of possible time lines that could occur and both seem to be lining up in sort of way or another. From what I can see, others has one big wave remaining, and it’s the one you don’t want to miss The Indicators Fibonacci retracement I have placed a potential take profit zone from the 1.272 to the 1.618 levels and anywhere in between. I have added an up trending channel that OTHERS would have to hold to stay somewhat relevant or then could be susceptible to adjustment. 2.RSI I have measured the first breakout of the RSI from the 2015-17 and 2019-21 bull runs along with this one so far. The one more relevant to us is 2015-17 as this is the cycle we are more closely following. There seems to be a recurring trend of 90 plus bars before a top to OTHERS. One more thing that really stands out to me in the RSI this the first time it has shown a very strong bearish divergence. normally it seems to maintain or gain strength. right to the very end. time will reveal the real issue here. 3. ISO The average sentiment oscillator to also show very consistent data for us. I have two measurements. The one points to late July and the the other late October. To me this could be the potential ALT-season time frame from July as it fizzles in the October time frame. My suggestion to you is follow what you have been taught so far, do not get greedy, take profits when they are there and trust your game plan and stick to it. ALT- SEASON can you a lot of money, or lose you a lot of money. By design, its there to take any profits you have may have, or catch any late coming stragglers. Don’t get caught up in the hoopla. Once again, I ask you for you input, I really want to hear from you. Check my bio for more links and information Kind regards, WeAreSat0shi
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by WeAreSat0shi
5
Preponderance of (or Preposterous?) Evidence I was just proposing yesterday staying neutral in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF). The FOMC meeting today (Jun 18th) was a big-nothing burger (so far), which supports my (non)position, but we'll see. I will update that post when the time is right (ATH, 200dma, or bust). Today, though, the IWM (the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ETF) and, surprisingly, a potential short position. First, the IWM (see below) is overbought on a weekly chart, with the Stochastics being above 80 (more on Stochastics and weekly charts at a later date). For now, let's go with IWM being a little overbought, in the longer-term view. Now, let's switch to the big daily chart at the top and look at the evidence for going short; - IWM never really got above it's 200-day moving average (purple line), - That same level was consistent with a lot of resistance ~213 (yellow circles), - IWM has trailed this whole rally. - It has broken and somewhat retested a trendline (light blue) from this most recent rally, - It bounced off it's 61.8% Fibonacci level (orange line, not my favorite indicator for ETFs, but I often sneak a peek), - It's at its previous resistance high around 209 (blue circles). On the not-bearish side; - The daily chart is less overbought (this has to happen on weakness, though), - There's (a little) support at 199 but not really again until 172, - I still feel like the All-Time-High (ATH) is a magnet for the S&P (but IWM has trailed). That's (a lot) more (and better) points for being bearish. I'll go short (via a ~90 day ITM put position*) if IWM breaks below 207.50, between that and 202. If it opens lower than 202, I'll wait for a pull-up. The stop will be a close above the 200 day. The target is 172 (the previous tariff low), but I will lighten/tighten up (by selling OTM puts* and/or moving stop down) as IWM drops (if it drops). It may seem a bit duplicitous to be neutral on SPY while being bearish on IWM. But sometimes you have to go with the Preponderance of Evidence (or will it prove Preposterous Evidence?) An update will be coming. *Sorry for bringing up options. One can just go short IWM. I will explain my option choice one day. My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
AMEX:IWMShort
by TheUncertainTrader
ETHUSDT WEEKLY UPDATE — PART 1 When Conviction Fails: Apex Rejection, Hidden Redistribution, and the Illusion of Demand Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you're tapping in from. Now, as always, I’m not here to waste your time with unnecessary waffle. Let’s get straight into it and unpack this mess step-by-step. THE APEX REJECTION | MORE THAN JUST A WICK So picking up from last week's update, we find ourselves right at the crossroads, and not the romantic kind either. What we’re looking at right now so far, is a clean yet 100% conclusive rejection from the apex of a key macro structure. This isn’t just any level. This is the intersection of vertical momentum and horizontal memory, the apex of a triangle that’s been forming for months. This is where bullish intent was supposed to hold, supposed to assert dominance, but instead, what did we get? A strong push into resistance, a failure to fix above it, followed by exhaustion and signs of institutional unloading. Now, to the untrained eye, this may look like a pullback, or even a healthy correction. But we’re not here to look at charts with retail goggles. We’re here to track the true intent behind the price action, and if you know your schematics, this is screaming redistribution. And not just any redistribution, the kind that happens right before the market changes its personality. WHERE ARE WE IN THE SCHEMATIC? If we overlay Wyckoff logic on top of this structure, it's very clear: We’ve had our PSY (preliminary support). Followed by a spring, a shakeout, and a fake rally. Now we’re dancing around what appears to be the UTAD (upthrust after distribution) — but weaker. This isn’t classic distribution, it’s redistribution masked in macro confusion. Here’s the thing this range isn’t just price consolidation, it’s behavioural conditioning. This long, choppy sideways movement is designed to wear out both bulls and bears, making them question their bias, mismanage their risk, and either overstay or exit too early. The market is methodical, not random. These candles aren’t accidents, they are footprints of algorithmic trap setting, and right now, it looks like the net is about to close. VOLUME TELLS THE TRUTH Let’s not forget volume. Look at the weekly volume through this recent push: Decreasing volume on the rallies, Higher volume on the red closes, And multiple spikes that failed to carry price past resistance. That’s your dead giveaway. You don’t need to be a wizard, just follow the clues. Price is being pushed, not lifted. Demand isn’t stepping in, liquidity is being removed. This isn’t smart money accumulation, if confirmed by the endd of this week, this most recent move up cout be doing of smart money unloading, Quietly and Efficiently. THE MARKDOWN IS PRIMED Let’s now address the elephant in the room, the range low and point C of the triangle on the 4H. T hat’s where liquidity is sitting. That’s where the market’s next objective lies. We’ve now failed to reclaim the apex, the wick was slapped down, and unless something significant shifts, the next logical move is to sweep that C point, take out the emotional support, and either: Tap into true demand (if it exists), or Begin the cascade toward the final green demand zones between 2,150–2,070, which we marked weeks ago. And don’t forget, this sweep may not be clean. We could get a fakeout bounce mid-range — enough to bait in more longs, only to roll over again. PSYCHOLOGICAL LAYER What’s happening here isn’t just technical, it’s emotional warfare. This entire range has been one long gaslight for the average trader. Between the failed breakouts, failed breakdowns, and chaotic intraday behaviour, retail has been turned into liquidity. And if you’re still trying to long blindly at the top of this, hoping for 3k ETH without a confirmed structure reclaim, then respectfully, you’re the product right now. Coming next in Part 2: A full breakdown of the 4H macro setup Analysis of the internal range mechanics Recalculated fib zones Where the liquidity pockets are What the most probable path is short, medium, and long-term Stay tuned — I’ll keep the flow coherent, structured, and aggressive. No fluff. No hopium. Just structure, psychology, and execution.
Short
by SmartMoneyDayTrading
XAU/USD Trade Setup – June 30, 2025📉 XAU/USD Trade Setup – June 30, 2025 Bias: Short (Sell Position) Entry Zone: Around $3,363–$3,370 Stop-Loss: 🔺 $3,259 (Above recent highs) Take-Profit 1: 🎯 $3,308 Take-Profit 2: 🎯 $3,302 Risk/Reward: Favorable (1.8–2.2:1 depending on entry) 🔍 Technical View Trend: Bearish below $3,370 Structure: Price rejected key resistance at $3,370–$3,380 Indicators: RSI weakening near 50 (bearish bias) MACD crossing down on H1 Key Zone: A break and close below $3,350 will likely drive price toward your TP zones at $3,308 and $3,302. ⚠️ Notes Volatility expected near NY session open or if macro data hits (e.g. Fed speakers, inflation prints) Consider scaling out partial profits at TP1 ($3,308) to lock gains
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mr7oussaine
1
$MPRC - Beware of the bears trap** EGX:MPRC - 1-Day Timeframe** A highly complete bearish Gartley pattern is forming. - **Sell Point:** Around 26.50 - **Stop Loss/Reentry:** 28.17 (estimated loss: -7.00%). A close above 28.17 would signal continued upward momentum. - **First Target:** 23.70 (estimated profit: 10.40%) - **Second Target:** 22.00 (estimated profit: up to 16.87%) **Notes:** - The RSI shows weakness but remains above 70, indicating strength. A close below 70 would signal a halt to the upward trend. Until then, the stock remains positive for the long term. - This analysis is based on the 1-day timeframe. **Disclaimer:** This is not investment advice—only my interpretation of the chart data. Consult your account manager before making any decisions. Good luck!
EGX:MPRCShort
by tfcgeorge
2
Bitcoin BTC price analysis BTC.D and events calendar for JulyToday is the last day of the month and the last day of the second quarter, so there may be some volatility in the markets between 🐂 VS 🐻 💰 The CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart shows an interesting picture — the price has reached the upper limit of the consolidation channel, and now: 1️⃣ The scenario with an upward breakout is quite clear: a breakout from the channel upward and consolidation above $108-110k= a move to $125k during July. 2️⃣ A correction to $99k will mean that buyers have taken control of the OKX:BTCUSDT price, preventing it from updating its lows. This will be a clear signal to buy, because further growth is inevitable. 3️⃣ A deep correction to $91,660 (filling the GAP that formed on the CME BTC chart) or slightly lower. This is the last “unclosed” GAP, which, according to TA rules, should be filled for a full-fledged growth trend to begin. So which scenario is closer to your heart, which one do you believe in? Or write your version of events in the comments. Interesting observations to think about: ◆ Over the past two weeks, the inflow of funds to #BTCETF has exceeded $5 billion, but the price of #BTCUSD on CEX exchanges has not been able to “break out” upward. Is this just ETF "property of numbers", or are spot #Bitcoin sales that strong? ◆ The BTC.D indicator has reached a critical level of 66%, and it will be interesting to see whether it will give altcoins some breathing room next month. (If there are a lot of likes and comments under the idea, we will additionally describe our thoughts on BTC.D and USDT.D.) ◆ SP 500, by the way, has updated its highs, and the last few months on the stock market are very similar to the beginning and middle of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. ◆ And in principle, July promises to be very eventful: 👉 By July 9, Trump is expected to make a statement regarding the tariff wars with the rest of the world, which he has put on hold. 👉 July 18 marks the beginning of Mercury retrograde, which “influences” people's behavior and ‘superstitions’ and forces them to be “more cautious” when making trading decisions (and trading bots don't care about emotions and beliefs) 👉 And on July 30, there will be a FOMC meeting, where Mr. Powell may announce a rate cut, as the US is in a recession, which is time to acknowledge. If we have forgotten anything, please add it in the comments!
by P_S_trade
12
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/30/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 22842.50 - PR Low: 22751.50 - NZ Spread: 202.75 Key scheduled economic events: 09:45 | Chicago PMI Weekend volatility taking auction into new ATHs Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 6/30) - Session Open ATR: 345.85 - Volume: 33K - Open Int: 261K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: +0.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 23239 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 20383 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5
NZDJPY Technical + Fundamental Short Alignment = Short SetupToday, I want to review the NZDJPY ( OANDA:NZDJPY ) pair short position from a fundamental and technical perspective . It seems to be in a good zone for a short position. Do you agree with me? ---------------------------------------- First, let's look at the fundamentals of NZDJPY. New Zealand (RBNZ): The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the OCR by 25bps in May and hinted at further easing if inflation continues to cool. Recent CPI data has shown clear disinflation trends, increasing the likelihood of more rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Consumer confidence is also declining, and retail sales have been weaker than expected. Japan (BoJ): The Bank of Japan is under growing pressure to tighten monetary policy. Inflation remains above 2%, and market expectations for a rate hike later this year are building. Any shift from ultra-loose policy supports JPY strength, especially against weaker yielders like NZD. Macro Summary: Diverging monetary policies: RBNZ easing, BoJ possibly tightening. NZD weakened by soft data, JPY strengthened by policy expectations. Risk sentiment is currently neutral-to-negative, favoring safe-haven JPY. Conclusion: Short NZDJPY is fundamentally justified. The pair aligns with macro forces: NZD is pressured by rate cuts and weak growth, while JPY is poised to strengthen with upcoming policy shifts. ---------------------------------------- Now let's take a look at the NZDJPY chart on the 4-hour time frame . NZDJPY is currently trading near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . In terms of classic technical analysis , it appears that NZDJPY has successfully formed a Rising Wedge Pattern . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks. Based on the above explanation , I expect NZDJPY to drop to at least 87.159 JPY if the lower line of the Rising Wedge Pattern and the Support zone(86.50 JPY-87.00 JPY) are broken, the second target could be 86.043 JPY . Note: Stop Loss(SL): 88.378 JPY Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. New Zealand Dollar/ Japanese Yen Analyze (NZDJPY), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
1