Downloading...
Download

Followmeformoresetups!

USD/CHF Short Setup – Institutional Flow & Liquidity TargetsUSD/CHF is setting up for a bearish move, with confluence from technical structure, order flow, and fundamental events. Here’s a complete breakdown of the setup, execution plan, and institutional positioning. 📊 Trade Execution & Technical Breakdown 🔹 Entry Zone: Price rejected from the 0.8786 - 0.8794 supply zone, aligning with 0.62 - 0.79 Fibonacci retracement levels. 🔹 Confluences: ✅ Bearish trend continuation – Lower highs forming. ✅ Liquidity grab above minor resistance, suggesting smart money distribution. ✅ Break & retest structure confirms potential downside. 🔹 Target Zones: 📉 First target: 0.8767 (previous low & liquidity area). 📉 Final target: 0.8750 (-0.62 Fibonacci extension). 📌 Market Structure: Higher timeframe bearish bias remains intact. Supertrend (4H) signals continued downside. EMA alignment (1D) confirms selling pressure. 🏦 Institutional Positioning & Market Sentiment 📌 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights: 📈 USD: Institutional long positions declining, indicating potential USD weakness. 📉 CHF: Increased net short positioning, suggesting institutional flow favoring CHF strength. 📌 Liquidity & Order Flow Data: Market depth shows heavy short positioning near resistance. Volume profile indicates a lack of demand above 0.8780, confirming weak bullish momentum. ⚡ Fundamental Drivers – Key News Events 📊 Macroeconomic Data Impacting USD/CHF: 📌 Employment Trends Index (108.35) – USD strength limited. 📌 T-Bill Auction & Treasury Buyback – Potential liquidity shifts affecting risk sentiment. 📌 Fed’s Beige Book & Policy Outlook – Key for USD direction. 🛑 Impact on Trade: ✔️ USD uncertainty fuels risk-off flows into CHF. ✔️ Short-term retracement provides an ideal short entry before further downside. 📈 Volatility & Liquidity Insights 📌 Prime Market Terminal Data: ATR shows increased volatility, supporting large price swings. Institutional short positioning rising, indicating strong bearish control. DMX data suggests liquidity buildup below 0.8760. 🔥 Conclusion – High-Probability Short Setup ✅ Bearish trend structure aligns with institutional positioning. ✅ Liquidity grab above resistance confirms distribution phase. ✅ Confluence of technicals, fundamentals, and order flow supports downside movement. 📌 Short Bias: Targeting 0.8767 → 0.8750. 📌 Key Invalidations: A break above 0.8800 could shift sentiment. 💬 What’s your take on USD/CHF? Let me know in the comments! 🚀📉
Short
by LDForex_
EUR/USD Long Setup – Institutional & Retail Flows Align This EUR/USD long trade was executed based on a confluence of technical levels, institutional positioning, and macroeconomic factors. Here’s the breakdown of the trade execution, market influences, and the Prime Market Terminal insights that supported the decision. 📊 Trade Execution & Technicals Entry: The trade setup was based on price retracing into a key Fibonacci retracement zone, aligning with a demand area before a bullish continuation. Confluence: A combination of trendline support, 50%–79% Fibonacci levels, and liquidity sweeps confirmed the setup. Target Zones: Price moved towards key Fibonacci extensions (-0.27 & -0.62 levels), which aligned with previous liquidity zones. Market Structure: Higher timeframes indicated a bullish trend, reinforcing the long bias. 🎯 Trade Outcome The trade executed as planned, with price bouncing off the retracement levels and moving towards the projected take-profit zones. Bullish continuation confirmed the validity of the setup, as institutional order flow aligned with the technicals. ⚡ High-Impact News That Influenced EUR/USD 📌 Economic data from the Prime Market Terminal showed major USD events: ISM Manufacturing PMI (53.5) exceeded expectations (52.8) – initially strengthening USD. Durable Goods Orders rose by 3.2%, reinforcing economic resilience. EIA Weekly Crude Stocks & Fed's Beige Book impacted liquidity and volatility in the market. 🛑 Impact on the Trade: Positive USD data initially caused short-term retracements, offering a discounted entry for longs. Market reaction confirmed a USD exhaustion, leading to EUR/USD bullish momentum. 📈 Volatility & Liquidity Insights 📌 Volatility data from the Prime Market Terminal indicated: EUR/USD ATR increased, signaling higher liquidity grabs and expansion. Liquidity Pools: Visible range analysis showed high-volume nodes near the Fibonacci retracement area, acting as liquidity traps before the bullish push. Institutional Order Flow: Increased volume and liquidity injection around key price levels confirmed smart money accumulation. 🏦 Institutional Positioning & Market Flow 📌 COT (Commitment of Traders) Report Insights: Institutional Traders: Increased long positions on EUR/USD, signaling confidence in the bullish move. Retail Sentiment: Majority of retail traders were short, fueling a short squeeze that propelled price higher. Market Depth Data: Prime Market Terminal showed institutional buy orders stacking near the key demand zone, reinforcing the long setup’s strength. 🔥 Conclusion ✅ The confluence of technicals, fundamental news, volatility data, and institutional flows provided a high-probability long setup on EUR/USD. ✅ Key Takeaway: Combining macro analysis with technicals and liquidity insights can increase the accuracy of trade setups. 📌 Did you catch this move? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀💬
Long
by LDForex_
GBP/USD - Institutional Backed Long Setup📌 Trade Execution & Technicals Pair: GBP/USD Timeframe: 15M Trade Type: Long Position Entry: 1.2816 – Price rejected key Fibonacci retracement level (0.62 Fib) after a liquidity sweep Stop Loss: Below 1.2800 Take Profit Levels: TP1: 1.2862 (-0.27 Fib extension) ✅ Target TP2: 1.2883 (-0.62 Fib extension) ✅ Target Technical Confluence: Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Price bounced off the 0.62 retracement (1.2816) Market Structure: Higher low formation confirmed bullish continuation Institutional Liquidity Grab: Price swept sell-side liquidity before reversing bullish 📊 Trade Outcome ✅ High-Probability Long Setup Both TP1 & TP2 levels hit with strong bullish momentum Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) > 1:3 Price action confirmed bullish institutional positioning 🌍 High-Impact News That Influenced GBP/USD UK S&P Global Services PMI (Actual: 51.0 vs Forecast: 51.1) – Slightly weaker, but still expansionary US ADP National Employment (77K vs Forecast: 140K) – Weaker than expected, USD pressured BoE Treasury Select Hearing (Hawkish Bias) – Supporting GBP strength US ISM Manufacturing Prices & Business Activity Upcoming – Expected to increase USD volatility 💡 News Summary: Weaker-than-expected US jobs data pressured the USD, providing momentum for GBP/USD upside GBP remained resilient despite mixed PMI data, benefiting from USD weakness 📈 Volatility & Liquidity Insights 🔍 Prime Market Terminal Key Data: GBP/USD Average True Range (ATR): 1-week ATR: 0.81% 1-month ATR: 0.86% Institutional Liquidity Insights: High liquidity buildup in the 1.2800-1.2820 range, acting as support Strong order flow pushing GBP/USD higher post-US employment data release 🏦 Institutional Positioning & Market Flow 📊 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data & Smart Money Insights: Dealer Positioning: GBP Net Positioning: +56,707 contracts (Bullish institutional sentiment) USD Net Positioning: -11,542 contracts (Bearish outlook on USD) Open Interest & Retail Sentiment: Retail Short Bias: 72% Short, 28% Long – Potential short squeeze Smart Money Accumulation Zone: 1.2800-1.2820 📌 Conclusion 🔹 Why This Trade Worked: ✔ Liquidity Grab Below 1.2816 Before Reversal ✔ Institutional Positioning Confirmed Bullish Momentum ✔ Weaker US Jobs Data Weighed on USD, Pushing GBP/USD Higher 🚀 Next Steps: Monitoring 1.2860 for continuation towards 1.2900 key level Watching upcoming US ISM data for potential volatility spike 🔥 What’s your outlook on GBP/USD? Comment your thoughts below!
Long
by LDForex_
Mid Week Analyses: Daily HL signalled, now what?24/10/24 Welcome Traders, In many of my previous posts I stated that I anticipate the signalling of a Daily HL before entering any buy positions. Why? Because with the exception of the weekly TF, this is the largest active TF making a series of HHs and HLs. Therefore, waiting and getting into a trade at this point will guarantee longterm profits until price breaks new all time highs (ATHs). The daily HL was signalled at 20,001.7 which falls at the 23.6% fib level on the daily chart. Granted this level is not a common retracement level for the NASDAQ. My initial entry point of interest was at 19649.1 capturing another set of sell side liquidity which aligned at the 38.2% fib level more commonly known for retracement. But other key signs which make it a valid end point is that it served as a retest for a previous resistance level that price broke out from and also an area which allowed price to capture sell side liquidity to liquidate any buyers who held their positions. Moving forward, I will continue to hold my buy positions entered until price breaks new highs. Even though the weekly TF is currently at a LH, it is likely that price will continue bullish to break new all time highs because: 1. The previous daily candle closed with a lower wick indicating strong rejection from support which means that the current daily candle will have to close bullish. 2. The daily TF needs to now complete its trend move of making a new HH which would then push the weekly LH to complete its trend move of signalling a new HH Another indication that price has resumed its uptrend is due to the bullish volume that is playing out.In less than one day price has already recovered 50% of yesterdays daily bearish candle which signalled the HL suggesting that the bulls have regained their strength. The current bullish volume differs drastically from the volume to signal the 23H LH. In a previous post I stated that the retracement was not over given the fact that it took 5 days and 6 bullish candles to signal the 23H LH. And what happened after that? Price sold to signal the 23H Low or Daily HL. But now that the low points have been met, we are seeing a quick recovery. In another one of my previous posts I mentioned that when price retraces at a resistance level before breaking new all time highs, it is to acquire enough buyers at a cheaper price likely to result in a bullish rally continuing way beyond new highs. Extending the daily chart out, we can see that price has been respecting a bullish parallel channel since August 5th 2024 and is currently below the channel mid-point indicated by the red dotted line. With the signalling of the Daily HL price should not only break new all time highs, but continue working its way up to: 21,119.3 at the -27% fib take profit level. But since this TP still puts price within the channel mid point range, the ultimate TP of interest is 21,887.9 at the -61.8% fib level.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by ForexxFrancis
Mid Week Analyses 22/10/24 Welcome Traders, Price has continued to consolidate within a range 20,524-20,063 for almost 2 weeks. Following the 23H HL signalled at 20,063.6, price has now retested the previous 23H HH thereby signalling a new 23H LH. Since the 23H LH has now been signalled at 20,476.7, every timeframe from the Daily down, is at their highest point. As previously mentioned, the Daily TF still at a High and is in need of its HL to resume the uptrend of HH HL. One important thing to note is the time taken for the 23H TF to signal its respective HL and now LH. The 23H HL was signalled in only 2 days while it took 5 days for the 23H LH to be signalled. Furthermore, it took 6 bullish candles to recover one bearish candle which signalled the HL.This is important to pay attention to because retracements are usually marked by extended periods of consolidation with low volume. Signs of buyer exhaustion are often indicated by small bodied bullish candles. The 23H is LH is back at a resistance level where price previously retraced. This resistance level is indicated by the red zone. So it is possible for price to form a double top pattern and begin its retracement. Once price breaks the 23H HL at 20,063.6, the daily HL will signal. Trading Plan: 1. I am only entering a swing buy position which can only be achieved by buying at the lowest price. Whereas the market may present short term opportunities, I am continuing to exercise patience waiting for a deeper retracement signalling the Daily HL. 2. Once the price retraces on the Daily TF, this will present a swing buy opportunity for me to enter. 3. Even if price continues bullish to break ATHs first, I will not enter the trade trying to chase the highs. Price must eventually retrace to signal a Daily HL and so it is just a matter of when.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ForexxFrancis
Weekly Analyses and Recap Welcome traders, Market Recap Sep 30th - Oct 4th Last week price spent the majority of the time consolidating between 42,380.6 - 41,995.9 before breaking out to the downside at 41,885.8 liquidating any buyers from the support level with pending SLs below structure. This liquidity sweep was the final accumulation of buying pressure allow institutional traders to have their buy orders filled to take price up to the resistance level of the consolidation range. From a fundamental perspective, NFP data came in hotter than expected showing exceptionally strong economic data causing a bullish reaction in equities. Previously strong data would cause a bearish reaction in equities as investors would take it as the Feds pausing rates for longer. However, strong data can sometimes boost investor confidence, leading to a bullish sentiment in equities. If economic indicators suggest robust growth, investors might be more willing to take on riskier assets like stocks. 🚨 October 7 -11 🚨 Moving froward, since price is currently at the resistance level of the consolidation range we can expect price to resume its downtrend. At market open today price gapped up which it is currently trying to fill. This gap up can be considered as a liquidity grab for any early sellers in the market with pending SLs above structure. Will this be the final sweep before price falls? Not sure.. As it is the first day of the trading week, it is possible for price to later retest this area or even do a final liquidity sweep up to 42,479.1 before committing to taking out the lows. Since price is at resistance, there are a lot more sell side liquidity than buy side liquidity to be filled. From an institutional trader perspective, a sell order was placed in order for price to breakout to 41,885.8 and instead of closing in drawdown price will return to the lows to that institutions can either close at breakeven or in profit. As always, major financial institutions are the one who control the market. Higher TF analyses: On the daily chart, we can see that price broke below the 23.0% fib level to signal the Daily LH. Historically price has shown to respect the fib level 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% as possible levels for retracement. Since price has broken through the 23.0% but has not reached the 38.2% level then we can expect price to resume its down trend to complete its retracement. On the 23H chart, price has signalled its respective LH indicating that every other TF below it is currently at its highest point and so can expect some retracement for the bigger TF to signal their respective HL. On this chart we can also see bullish FVGs created from the strong buyer momentum as other key areas for price to retest. We also have a imbalance created when price gapped up at 41,621.9 which also aligns with the 38.2% fib level of volatility. Therefore, for the rest of this week my bias is bearish for rice to come down and retest these levels.
OANDA:US30USD
by ForexxFrancis
End of Week Analyses for NFP data 🚨 October 4th 🚨 Welcome Traders, In a few hours we have the release of the most highly anticipated economic data being released. This is none other than Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) which summarizes the stats of all the the non-agricultural jobs in the USA. This labor market data is important to what the US Fed Reserve pays attention to in order to gage interest rate cuts. As a result investors and major institutional banks (which are the major market movers) tend to react heavily to the data in anticipation to that of the Fed Reserve. If the data comes out higher than expected this indicates an increase in non-agricultural jobs in the USA and thus a strong economy. But unfortunately a strong economy is not what the Fed Reserve needs to see in order to further cut rates and so investors and institutional banks will react negatively to the data resulting in a bearish reaction in equities. Conversely, if the data comes out lower than expected, signalling a weaker economy from lesser jobs, this will cause a bullish reaction in US equities. Given where we are in market structure, there is no telling that price wants to continue its downtrend. A Daily HL was signalled at 41,885.6. Using my fibs this HL point broke through the 23.6% sitting in the middle between that and the 38.2% volatility level. Historically, price has always respected one of the key fib levels and so this tells me that although we got a mid point rejection from support, price will resume its downtrend to respect the next fib level of interest which is the 38.2% at 41,672.1. However not without a short term push to the upside. Given the rejection on the Daily HL candle, we can expect todays daily candle to first have a bullish momentum completing the rejection from support before resuming its downtrend. My reasoning for this is because on the higher TF price has been trading in a consolidation range for roughly 2 weeks now and on Thursday we finally got a breakout to the downside retesting last week's lows. This breakout can be seen as a liquidity grab taking out any buyers who were trying to buy from the support. The fact that price broke out but closed within the consolidation range is a perfect example of liquidity grab. Following the initial breakout at NYSE open on Thursday, price came back down 4hours later to retest those lows before resuming bullish back into range. Price has not managed to go back there since which tells me there's some buying pressure. As I have indicated by the three consecutive red arrows, price has tapped into the grey highlighted support zone three times. If price remains above this support at 41,918.7 the buys will remain valid. But for this to happen, NFP data needs to come out lower than expected to spark a volatile bullish reaction before coming back down for the rest of NY session. If this is the case, my TPs of interest are at 42,152.9 at the 61.8% fib level and 42,252.6 at the 78.6% fib level. After which I will look for sells back down to 41,885.6 at the previous Daily HL.
OANDA:US30USD
by ForexxFrancis
Weekly Analysis🚨 September 30th - October 4th 🚨 Welcome Traders, As I mentioned in my previous idea post, since the weekly LH is currently respecting the 88.00% fib level where the previous weekly HL respected, there is a high probability that if history repeats itself, we price may continue to retrace to signal either a 23H HL or signal a weekly HL before price resumes it's bullish trend to break ATHs. One of the reasons why my bias is bearish is because if we zoom out to the 15H chart, price is within an ascending channel and is currently respecting the channel's mid point which also aligns with a strong resistance level highlighted as a red zone. The bulls are failing to stay above this area suggesting that price may retrace to test the lows of the channel. Using my fib tool, the low of the channel aligns with the 38.2% level of extreme volatility. Therefore, my bias for the week is bearish until the higher TFs signal their respective HL. Currently, the 11H TF is the biggest TF for price to signal its HL point. The 11H HL signalled at the 38.2% fib level of extreme volatility. This fib level is often described as extreme volatility because price can shoot in either direction. Price broke below the 38.2% down to 19,864.7 before shooting back up into the consolidation range from last week. On the 4H chart we can see more clearly that price keeps trying to make new lows but is constantly being rejected by a level of support. At the same time however this rejection fails to create new HHs. This tells me that with the help of news or economic data released this week, price will give one final push to create a new LH at a resistance level on the smaller timeframe before resuming its downtrend. Using my fibs on the 4H chart, price can retest a resistance level at 20,173.2 which aligns at the 61.8% fib retracement level. Trading Plan going forward As part of my trading plan I do not trade on Monday and Tuesdays due to low volume and consolidation and with NFP on Friday, we may not get a clear directional move until then. It is likely that price will continue to range as the market remains indecisive leading up to NFP. Since my bias is sells, my aim is to sell at the highest point. Therefore, I will be waiting for price to retest a resistance level to enter into sell position. As long as price remains below 20,173.2, the retracement is valid.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ForexxFrancis
Weekly Recap🚨 September 23rd - September 27th 🚨 Welcome Traders, For past three weeks I have been anticipating a major correction to signal a HL on the bigger timeframes before entering a buy position to break all time highs (ATHs). Why? 1. Because the Daily HL signalled on Fri Sep 6th at 18,310.1 served as a new indication low point. 2. Afterwhich price made a bullish correction where the bulls maintained their strength breaking through every resistance for the following three weeks. 3. Following a correction price always retraces to signal new low point on the higher timeframe which could either be a new LL point from the previous Daily HL suggesting downtrend continuation OR a HL point above the Daily HL suggesting a reversal to new ATHs. Here's an image below where price continued to break through key levels of resistance at 19,639.5 and 19,955.8 indicated by the red and orange zones. Since price continued to signal a series of HLs and HHs on the smaller TFs such as the 1H -3H, it was only a matter of time before price met a strong level of resistance to signal a HL on the bigger TFs (11H-23H). Last week price signalled a 3H HL at 19,769.4 before continuing bullish up to 20,351.9. On the weekly timeframe we can see that where the LH is currently signalled, began its retracement at the 88.8% fib level which is arguably the same level where the weekly HL was completed before continuing bullish to LH. Therefore there is a high probability that if history repeats itself, we price may continue to retrace to signal either a 23H HL or signal a weekly HL before price resumes it's bullish trend to break ATHs. Weekly chart showing Weekly LH at 88.00% Weekly chart weekly HL at 88.00%
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ForexxFrancis
Mid Week Analyses 25/09/24 As I mentioned in my previous posts, price would take out the highs at NSYE open before beginning its retracement. Great sell if anyone caught a sniper entry from the highs. Following the correction today, a 10H HL was signalled at 41,917.9 as the biggest TF with a type of low. Despite signalling a 10HL, the smaller TF such as the 7H and 8H failed to signal their respective HL. Furthermore, the 10H HL did not reach the 23.2% fib level. This indicates that there is potentially more selling to happen that we need to be aware of. Historically once a HL has not been signalled on a smaller TF but is signalled on a bigger TF, this can mean one of two things: 1. Price will resume its downtrend after signalling a LH on the smaller TF to fulfill the HL on the missing timeframes. 2. Price will make new ATHs forgoing the HL on the missing TFs, but these new ATHs will soon reach a level of exhaustion before committing to an even bigger correction. 7H chart showing no HL signalled 10H chart showing HL signalled Going forward: Given the current bullish pressure, I have closed my sell positions and entered a buy position since price is clearly respecting a level of support on the smaller TF. I will monitor the bullish momentum accordingly to observe for signs of retracement. Using my fibs, it is possible that price can signal a LH on the smaller TF at 42,149.8 - 42,205.3 before resuming its downtrend to make a LL. If not, price will continue bullish to make new ATHs forming a double top region before resuming its downtrend to form a bigger correction.
OANDA:US30USD
by ForexxFrancis
1
Weekly Analyses and RecapWelcome Traders, Last week US30 gave a bullish impulse on Thursday Sep 19 following the announcement of the Fed Reserve interest rate cuts. Since then, price has been consolidating. Monday and Tuesday are notoriously known for low volume and consolidation there is no need to be rushing into trades Instead, I am using the time to allow price to reveal its hand on the direction. There is no telling that US30 isn't at ATHs. However it is important to note that the markets have not had a bullish rally since the interest rate cut. Prior to rate cuts, the market anticipated a 25bp cut which was then over ruled by the announcement of a 50bp cut. Although the Fed Reserve later justified the 0.5bp cut, one would think that this would have come as a positive acting as a catalyst for bigger bullish rally. This is an indication that market structure is signalling the fact that a correction is due. My directional bias for the week is bearish to signal a HL on the bigger TFs such as the 4H to retest the fair value gaps before resuming on the uptrend to ATHs. Since the signalling of the Daily HL at 39,985.5 on Wed Sep 11, price has been very bullish for the past two week only signalling a 2H HL as the biggest timeframe with a type of low. Although my bias is bearish for the week, it is common for price to have a bullish liquidity grab to sweep out the current highs at NYSE open taking out any early sellers. If NYSE opens on Tuesday or Wednesday with a push to the upside, this push can serve as a key entry point for a sell position to take out the lows and restest a previous support. If we do end up getting a correction, my TP of interest is at 40,991.4 at the 61.8% retracement level and previous resistance level where price broke out from.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ForexxFrancis
1
mid week Analyses: Correction Before the Highs Welcome Traders, Last week NAS100 gave a bullish rally on Thursday Sep 19 following the announcement of the Fed Reserve interest rate cuts. Since then, price has been consolidating. Monday and Tuesday are notoriously known for low volume and consolidation therefore I have not taken any trades. My directional bias for the week is bearish to signal HL on the bigger timeframes for the following reasons: 1. Since price signalled a Daily HL at 18,315.4 on August 4th, price has been very bullish only signalling a 4H HL once on Monday Sep 16th which respected a 23.6% fib level. 2. Price is currently within a strong area of resistance highlighted by the red zone where price previously retraced. 3. Price is currently at the 78.6% fib level of retracement on the weekly chart. Since my bias is bearish, I am looking for to see wether price action will respect the retracement zone that I have highlighted in blue. It is common for price to have a bullish liquidity grab to sweep out the current highs at NYSE open taking out any early sellers. If NYSE opens on Tuesday or Wednesday with a push to the upside, this push can serve as a key entry point for a sell position to take out the lows and restest a previous support. I anticipate the liquidity sweep to the upside to retest a previous resistance at 20,059.6 before entering sell position with a TP of 19,434.8 at the 78.6% key fib correctional level. If price does not sell, then price will breakout of the weekly consolidation range maintaining its bullish strength by signalling a series of HLs on the 1H - 2H TFs to continue to ATHs.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ForexxFrancis
1
Weekly Analyses Hi Traders, Welcome to another weekly analyses for Sep 23 - 27 Top Down Analyses: Weekly Timeframe On the weekly chart, price is currently in a consolidation area between 20,033.6 and 18,092.2. The bullish inside day candle that was formed on Monday Sep 9, served as an indication that price would continue bullish. However, price is still yet to breakout of the range to confirm buys to ATHs. Currently, price is at a level of resistance where price previously retraced. Using my fibs, we can see that price currently sits at the 78.6% fib level known to be a key area of retracement. Daily Timeframe On the daily chart, price has showed more bullish structure as it respected a level of support at 19,311.7 along with the daily moving averages to complete its trend move from Low to High with a strong bullish candle. However, this High point signalled is currently only 500pips above the previous LH which as I mentioned is at a level of resistance. Similar to the previous LH signalled, price can retrace to signal HL a retest the previous lows. 10H TF On the 10H chart we can see more clearly that the 10H HH signalled is currently forming a double top pattern until price gives a clear breakout of structure. This double top is an indication that price can retrace to complete the M pattern and signal a HL on the bigger TF. Trading Plan for the week: Monday and Tuesday are notoriously known for low volume and consolidation therefore I will not be taking any trades at the start of the week. Instead I will monitor price action for signs of retracements or breakout of structure for a clearer directional bias for the rest of the week. Currently, my bias is bearish to signal HL on the bigger timeframes for the following reasons: 1. Since price signalled a Daily HL on August 4th, price has been very bullish only signalling a 4H HL once on Monday Sep 16th which respected a 23.6% fib level. The first week following the Daily HL price only signalled a 1H HL. 2. Price is at a strong area of resistance highlighted by the red zone where price previously retraced. 3. Price is currently at the 78.6% fib level on the weekly chart. Since my bias is bearish, I am looking for to see wether price action will respect the retracement zone that I have highlighted in blue. Therefore, as long as price remains below 20,057.1 the retracement is valid to signal HL on the bigger TFs. If not, then price will breakout of the weekly consolidation range maintaining its bullish strength by signalling a series of HLs on the 1H - 2H TFs to continue to ATHs.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ForexxFrancis
Weekly Analyses and RecapSep 16 - 20 2024 Hi Traders and Welcome to Another Weekly Analyses and Recap Idea Post. Last week the bulls held their strength and price was on a strong uptrend with only a 1H Low as the biggest TF to make a HL. This 1H Low occurred on Wednesday Sep 11 after CPI and acted as a retest before continuing the bullish trend. Although this was not the low I anticipated, it acted as a key entry point to continue the uptrend which continued up to a high of 19,565.9. On my chart I have highlighted bearish levels of resistance as red zones where price previously respected or retraced to signal some form of a HL. Following the 1H Low, the next retracement level was at 19,235.1 for price to retrace. This retracement only signalled a 45min HL and once again was not the kind of low I anticipated. This further highlights how strong the bulls were last week. Historically, once price has completed it's retracement, it will recover the sells and less than half the time the sells took the play out. So for example, the 23H HL took 2 weeks to complete to make its lowest point at 18,305.1. Within one week the 23H LH now sits at a high of 19,565.9. This is an indication that the retracement period may be over and we are resuming an uptrend. Trading Plan for This Week: Since price is at a high, we cannot buy at a high but rather wait for HLs to signal on the larger TFs for an entry point. On my chart I have indicated a consolidation zone in orange where price previously retraced. At the time of this post, price is currently at 19,500.9 and is currently retracing from the high of last Friday. However, since the 7H TF is the biggest TF at a LH which needs to signal a High I anticipate that price will eventually continue bullish during London or NY session up to 19,647.7 to signal a 7H High. With the 7H TF being at a high, all the timeframes from the 23H down will be at their highest point making the retracement valid down to 19,134.8 to signal possibly a 4H HL. 19,134.8 is chosen as a TP of interest because - it currently sits at the 38.2% fib level of extreme volatility. - it is within an area for which previously acted as a resistance but since price broke out this resistance level can turn into a support. Once price reaches 19,134.8 only then will I look for buys. Daily HL signal - indication of a new low 23H LH - bullish correction 4H HL to 23H HL - confirmation of bullish reversal to ATH From a fundamental standpoint, we do have the Fed's interest rate decision and FOMC which can cause added volatility since the markets anticipate the Feds to announce rate cuts. So then it possible that the price will not signal a HL on the bigger TF and will make a series of HHs and HLs on the 1H TF to break above the orange consolidation zone to new ATHs.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ForexxFrancis
Mid Week Analyses Following CPI DataSep 11 2024 We got over a 700point move today where price surpassed my TPs for the week reaching a high of 19,274.1. This now puts the 23H TF is the biggest TF to signal it's LH which now sits at the 62.8% retracement level on the fib. Now that price has made its bullish correction, I am now shifting my bias to sells for it to make its new low point on the bigger TF. Each red zone represents a bearish level of resistance where price previously retraced from after making a bullish correction. Therefore I am now looking for signs of retracements anywhere between 19,274.1 - 19,322.5 for the following reasons: 1. Price is at the bearish level of resistance 2. Price is at the 61.8% key retracement fib level 3. Price would be respecting the daily moving averages 4. Price has been bullish since Monday with only a 1H Low signalled. Note, that if price does not retrace within this range (9,274.1 - 19,322.5) and it closes above, then price will continue bullish up to the 78.6% retracement level at 19,597.9. Here are two scenarios for the rest of the week: Downtrend (more likely): - Price begins to retrace within the retracement zone highlighted in blue to signal a 4H HL roughly around 18,934.8. - This would mean that today marked the day price made it's highest point for the week and will now retrace for the rest of the week. Uptrend continuations (unlikely but also possible for strong uptrend) - Price makes a series of HHs and HLs on the smaller TFs so that it can continue to break above the retracement zone. - Once it breaks above, the next TP of interest is 19,597.9 - This means that price will continue bullish for the rest of the week with Thursday having the most volume and Friday ranging with consolidations.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ForexxFrancis
1
Weekly Analyses and Recap: Which direction will price go??Sep 9-13 Hi Traders and Welcome to another weekly analyses and recap for GOLD. Firstly, it is important to note that GOLD has been trending in a a consolidation range ever since making new ATHs on August 20th. But since GOLD is a historically bullish instrument we can expect that it will eventually breakout to the upside. So last week price respected an exhaustion level and resistance by 2,525.457 before selling to signal a 4H HL at 2,465.329. With this new low as an indication, we can expect price to make a bullish correction until it eventually reaches a level of resistance. This resistance level can potential be 2,503.742-2509.000 where price previously respected. For a downtrend: If this rejection occurs before CPI data released this Wednesday then price will likely continue to retrace for the rest of the week to signal a LL on the smaller TFs and a 23H HL on the bigger TF roughly by 2,485.376. For an uptrend: However, if price does not respect these resistance levels, then the bulls have gained their strength and price will continue bullish upon the release of CPI to potentially create ATHs and the current 23H LH will now become a HH. Since the 23H TF is currently sitting at a LH, my personal bias is bearish for it to signal a HL. Historically, once price makes ATHs, it has taken 4weeks for it to breakout and create new ATHs. If history repeats itself, then I do not see price creating new ATHs until the week the markets will anticipate the Feds to announce rate cuts. With that being said, I will not be taking any trades on Sunday and Monday as I will be observing price action accordingly to decipher the trend for the rest of the week. Happy Trading Everyone. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ForexxFrancis
Weekly Analyses and Recap: Will the bulls or bears prevail ??Sep 9 - 13 2024 Welcome Traders to another weekly analyses and recap post. On Thursday Aug 22nd price signalled a Daily LH at 19,946.6 after which it began to sell. Price has been selling for 2 full weeks now where the Daily HL currently sits at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool. Week 3 will be the telltale if price will continue to signal a weekly HL or respect the Daily HL at the 61.8%. Previously, when the weekly HL was completed on Aug 4th at 17,239.4 price had sold for 3 full weeks. By the end of Week 2 (July 21-28) the Daily HL was sitting at the 78.6% retracement level after which it made a bullish correction. However this correction was short lived because on Tuesday July 30th of Week 3, price respected a level of resistance at 19,236.6 and continued its downtrend breaking below the Daily HL of week 2. This was confirmation that price was not respecting the 78.6% retracement level and would continue to sell until the weekly HL was signalled. History usually repeats itself and so using that knowledge, for this week I will be watching keenly to see whether price breaks below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday. So last Friday Sep 6th, price made an indication - a new low or Daily HL at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool. Price is currently making a bullish correction until it eventually reaches a level of resistance. This resistance level can potential be 19,111.7 - 19,236.6 where price previously respected. Once price respects a resistance level, it will then make a new low which for me will be the indication on whether price wants to continue bearish for a third week or commence its uptrend. Understand that in any given trend, price must make a series of Highs and Lows but where these highs and lows fall relative to previous will be the indication of which type of trend the market is in. For an uptrend, price must not break below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday which will act as a key support. Therefore, a HL will be the indication of a reversal to an uptrend. For a downtrend, price must respect the resistance level from the previous week (19,111.7 - 19,236.6) and break below 18,310.5 at the close of the previous weekly candle. If a LL forms on the smaller TFs this means that the Daily HL will continue to retrace down to the 78.6% retesting the previous weekly HL. On my chart I have highlighted two TP areas where price can continue to retrace if we get a third week of retracement: - 17,640.5 which is the 78.6% reracement level on the Daily TF - 16,807.9 which is not only a retest of the previous weekly HL but also the point at which the monthly HL should signal. If price reaches here, this would mark the first monthly HL since October 2022. (price has essentially been on a strong uptrend for over 2 years). With that being said, I will not be taking any trades on Sunday and Monday as I will be observing price action accordingly to decipher the trend for the rest of the week. Happy Trading Everyone. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ForexxFrancis
Bitcoin high probability short setup ENTRY : 66754 PROFIT : 61185 STOP : 68114 HUGE UNFILLED CME GAP BELOW WE JUST NEED GOOD SHORT SETUP HERE YOU GO ALL trading ideas have entry point + stop loss + take profit + Risk level. hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below. Disclaimer
Short
by bullstraders7