NZDUSD-4H-TREND CONTINUATIONNZDUSD is looking bearish in HTF
1. Conditional Scoring:
Bearish sentiment is derived from expectations of deteriorating economic conditions in New Zealand relative to the US.
2. COT-FILP:
Bearishness is based on speculative positioning in the futures market, where traders anticipate a decline in the NZDUSD exchange rate.
3. Seasonal Patterns:
Bearishness during the first two weeks of May since the last 5, 10, and 15yr is attributed to seasonal factors, such as decreases in exports or shifts in interest rate differentials.
4. Fundamentals:
Improvements in leading economic indicators and exogenous factors suggest strength in the NZD, while a decline in endogenous factors implies potential weakness in the currency.
5. Technicals:
Bearishness in the trend and continuation pattern suggests a downward trajectory in the NZDUSD pair, while bullish divergences might indicate a potential reversal despite other technical factors pointing to bearish.
Overall, the analysis concludes with a bearish outlook for the NZDUSD pair, considering both fundamental and technical factors.
