Forextidings — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Is Tata Motors Ready for a Bullish Reversal?Timeframe: Daily Tata Motors (NSE) has been in an expanded flat correction pattern for the past 11 months. In this pattern, the highest high (HH) was 1179, and the lowest low (LL) was 683.2. Currently, the price is trading below the 200, 100, and 50 EMA levels, indicating a bearish trend. In this expanded flat correction: Wave (A) completed at 855.4, Wave (B) peaked at 1179, Sub-wave 4 of Wave (C) touched 786.65, Sub-wave 5 is now unfolding. Once Wave 5 is completed, traders can look for buying opportunities with target levels at 799 – 951 – 1050+. First, it’s crucial to identify the end of Wave (C) to confirm the correction’s completion and a bullish reversal. Projecting ending point of wave (C): Wave (C) may end at 2.618% of Wave (A) around 628.7. Wave 5 has multiple potential targets/support levels: 0.618 extension of Wave 1 at 526, 0.382 extension of Wave 1 at 628, 1.618 reverse Fibonacci of Wave 4 at 657, 2.618 reverse Fibonacci of Wave 4 at 562. We will update further information soon.

Part 1: How to Analyze Events in the Forex Market? The forex market is one of the most dynamic and volatile financial markets in the world. It is deeply influenced by global events, economic data, and geopolitical developments. Traders who understand how to analyze these events can make informed decisions and capitalize on market movements. Influence Of the Global Events: The forex market is directly linked to global economic health. Since currencies represent the economies of their respective countries, any significant event like an interest rate decision, inflation data, or geopolitical conflict. It can cause major fluctuations in currency prices. Here’s global events play important role: - Central Bank Policies: When the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB) changes interest rates, it impacts global liquidity and investment flows. - Economic Data Releases: GDP growth, inflation, and employment reports provide insights into economic stability, affecting investor confidence. - Geopolitical Events: Wars, elections, trade agreements, and diplomatic conflicts impact currency demand and risk sentiment. What Happens When News Is Published? When a major economic event or news release occurs, the forex market reacts instantly. Here’s the typical stages of events: Stage 1: Market Expectations: Before the news release, traders anticipate the outcome based on forecasts. The market often prices in expectations. Stage 2: Immediate Volatility: If the actual data differs from the forecast, there’s a sharp price movement in the affected currency pairs. Stage 3: Liquidity Fluctuations: Spreads widen, and liquidity dries up momentarily as traders rush to execute orders. Stage 4: Short-Term Correction: After the initial reaction, the market stabilizes, and price action follows the broader trend. Major Events: Central Bank Meetings – Institutions like the Fed, ECB, BoJ, and BoE set monetary policies. Interest rate hikes strengthen a currency, while rate cuts weaken it. Forward guidance also plays a role in shaping long-term trends. Inflation Reports (CPI & PPI): These measure inflation levels, influencing central bank decisions. Higher inflation often leads to interest rate hikes, strengthening the currency, while lower inflation may result in monetary easing, weakening it. Employment Data (NFP & Job Reports) – The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key indicator. Strong job growth supports a stronger USD, while weak employment data signals economic trouble. GDP Growth Reports –:A higher-than-expected GDP growth rate boosts investor confidence and strengthens the currency, while economic contraction leads to depreciation. Political & Geopolitical Events: Elections, government policies, trade wars, and conflicts create uncertainty, often pushing investors toward safe-haven currencies like the USD, JPY, or CHF One's Loss, Another's Win: When the U.S. releases strong economic data, such as higher-than-expected GDP growth, strong job reports (NFP), or an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, The demand for the U.S. dollar increases. This leads to USD appreciation against other currencies, including the euro. For example, ---> EUR/USD falls : USD is gaining strength, it takes fewer dollars to buy 1 euro, causing the EUR/USD exchange rate to drop. ---> USD/EUR rises : USD is now wortth more, the inverse exchange rate (USD/EUR) increases, meaning 1 USD can now buy more euro. Key strategies for trading events: •Stay Ahead with an Event Calendar: Keep track of important economic events and central bank meetings to anticipate potential market-moving news. • Gauge Market Expectations: Understand forecasts and market sentiment before the event to predict how the market might react. • Implement Stop-Loss Orders: Protect your trades from excessive risk by setting stop-loss orders to cap potential losses during volatile moves. • Wait for Market Stability: Allow the market to settle after the event to avoid getting caught in the initial volatility and better assess the trend. • Evaluate the Market’s Response: Assess the immediate market reaction to the event to identify if the initial price move is sustainable or a short-term spike. Drawbacks of Trading News: High Volatility & Whipsaws: Prices can spike in both directions before settling on a trend, leading to stop-loss hunting. Widened Spreads: During news releases, brokers often widen spreads, increasing trading costs. Slippage: Rapid price movements can lead to orders being executed at unexpected prices. Emotional Trading: Sudden market swings can trigger impulsive decisions, leading to losses. Market Manipulation: Big players and institutions often move the market unpredictably before major news releases. In the next part, we will focus on the specific events and strategies.

Part [A] Basic of Wave Principle Elliott Wave background In the 1930s, R.N Elliott identified the price of the stock trends and reversed a specific pattern. This pattern is repetitive in form and, the patterns have predictive value. He decided to use this pattern (Elliott wave theory) to predict the market. The Elliott wave is not primarily a trading system. It is a detailed description of how the market acts. The Elliott wave is part of technical analysis. Also, the Wave principle is the reassembled form of dow theory. -Elliott Wave Principle The key To Market Behavior] Waves in the market? We all know that price never moves in a straight line. It will neither fall in a straight line nor rise in a straight line. Price will create highs and lows. And this high and low creates waves. Elliott wave theory is all about counting waves and, we are going to use the Elliott wave to trade the market. Now, the concept of waves is acceptable for you. Elliott wave theory is made of 5+3= 8 waves. Let me show you that structure in both trends. In bull market ( UP Trend ) : Figure 1.1 This is the Elliott wave structure in an uptrend. As we discussed, Elliott's wave theory is made up of 5+3=8 waves. Where five waves move with the trend and three waves move against the trend. In Bear market (downTrend) Figure 1.2 This is an example of Elliott wave theory in the Bear market. We can see that five waves move with the trend and, three waves move against the trend. Take a deep breath, I know you have lots of doubts in your mind. Let me solve some. 1. Elliott wave theory works in any time frame. 2. These 5+3=8 waves will give us a market edge. It will provide strong trends & trend reversals. 3. The accuracy of Elliott wave theory is 84% of you are using the wave principle correctly. Practical Example of Elliott wave theory : In the Bull market : Figure 1.3 This is the TATA MOTORS 4 hour timeframe chart. I used bar charts because It is easy to recognize Elliott's waves in bar Patterns. Well, it works for me to recognize if you feel that you can recognize patterns in another chart, go ahead with bar charts! In Bear Market: Figure 1.4: This is the ITC daily time frame chart. It shows the beautiful Elliott wave structure in the Bear market. Elliott wave structure : Now, we all know that Elliott is made of a 5+3= 8 wave structure. So, Let's start getting into it! To understand the wave principle, we have divided the wave structure (5+3=8) into two Phases which are an Impulse phase/structure & a corrective phase/structure. Figure 1.5 This picture illustrates Two phases of the Elliott wave principle. The impulse phase is made up of 5 waves and, the corrective phase is made up of 3 waves. Figure 1.6: This picture divides the wave principle into two phases. 1. Impulse phase/structure ( which includes five waves and, which moves with the trend you can see in bull market impulse phase is going upward and in a bear market, impulse phase is going down which is directional move.) & 2. Corrective Phase/structure ( which includes three waves and which moves against the trend, you can see that in bull market corrective phase is going downward and In bear markets, the corrective phase is going upward, which is a counter-trend move. Figure 1.7 , Elliott wave has 2 phases. motive/Impulse phase ( directional move ) and corrective phase(counter trend move). We can divide these 2 phases into two types of waves. Impulsive waves and corrective waves. Let’s zoom in on the impulse phase to understand the underlying structure and wave behavior. Motive/Impulse Phase : Important things about the impulse phase 1). Motive/Impulse phase is a Five wave structure that includes wave1,2,3,4 & 5. 2). motive/Impulse phase is a directional move ( moves with the trend.) 3). The Ending point of the impulse phase is the starting point of the corrective phase. 4). motive/Impulse structure is powerful than corrective structure. 5) Impulse phase can divide into two types of waves i) Impulse waves: 1, 3,5 ( move with Trend of impulse Phase ) ii) Corrective waves: 2,4 ( Moves against the trend of Impulsive Phase) Let me give you a quick understanding because we are going to cover these waves in-depth, Impulsive waves are trend-following moves. We can find this type of wave structure in both phases. Impulsive waves create trends. Impulsive waves are (1,3,5,A,C). Corrective waves are counter-Trend moves. We can find this type of wave structure in both phases. Corrective waves provide pause to continue the trend, Corrective waves : (2,4,B) Motive/Impulse Phase in Bull market Figure 1.8(A) , wave 1,3,5 is an impulsive wave of impulse phase because The trend of impulse phase up and, Impulsive wave are following the trend and heaving upward move. And wave 2,4 is the corrective wave of an impulse phase because the trend of the impulse phase is up but, the corrective wave is moving down, which is against the trend. Figure 1.8(B) , wave 1,3,5 is an impulsive wave of impulse phase because the trend of Motive/impulse phase down and Impulsive wave are following trend and heaving downward move. And Wave 2,4 is the corrective wave of an impulse phase because the trend of the Impulse phase is down but, the corrective wave is moving upward, which is against the trend. Corrective Phase/structure : Important things about the impulse phase 1). The Corrective Phase is a three-wave structure that includes waves A, B, C. 2). The corrective phase is a counter-trend move ( moves against the trend.) 3). The Ending point of the corrective phase is the starting point of the Impulse phase. 4) correction phase can divide into two types of waves i) Impulse waves: A, C ( move with Trend of correction Phase ) ii) corrective waves: B ( moves against Trend of correction Phase ) Corrective Phase in a bull market: Figure 1.9(A) : wave A, C is the impulsive wave of the Correction phase because the trend of the correction phase is down and Impulsive waves are following the trend and heaving downward move. And Wave B is the corrective wave of a Correction phase because the trend of the Corrective Phase is down but, the corrective wave is moving upward which is against the trend. Figure 1.9(B): wave A, C is the impulsive wave of the Correction phase because the trend of correction phase Up and Impulsive waves are following the trend and heaving Upward move. And Wave B is the corrective wave of a Correction phase because the trend of the Corrective Phase is Up but, the corrective wave is moving down, which is against the trend. Impulsive wave structure: 1. Impulsive waves are directional moves that are bigger than corrective waves. 2. Impulsive waves create trends. 3. Impulsive waves are subdivided into five waves. ( that means wave 1,3,5, A, C which moves with the trend will have five sub-waves.) 4. Impulsive waves are easy to recognize. (Impulsive waves can also be called motive waves) 5. Ride of impulsive wave can give us a high probability trade setup with high Rewards We are going to cover impulsive wave formations in the next part. (diagonals,extensions,Impulse,Truncation) Figure 1.10: As we discussed, Impulsive waves subdivide into five waves. Here wave 1,3,5, A, C has five subwaves which you can see in the chart. See you in the next part. @forextidings

EWT: Tesla Has Brokendown The Corrective Structure Tesla has broken down the corrective channel, and the price surged rapidly. Currently, 3rd has reached 161.8% of wave 1. After completion of wave 3, the price will start its corrective wave 4. Traders can initiate long positions after the accomplishment of wave 4 for the targets of 1056 - 1113 - 1210+.

Will Bitcoin reach $1,00,000 Before 2022?Bitcoin prices were moving upward at the beginning of 2021. But, its investors have seen heavy downfall into May to June. Afterward, it has hiked from 28600 to above 51356 . According to Elliott's wave theory, it's running under the 4th wave. We may see a sideways trend here. Bitcoin is preparing for a solid uptrend ahead. It's a right to jump on Bitcoin for the long-term investment. And the correction can be between the range of 28600 to 50000 because it will start marching for $1,00,000 soon. Kindly note, this target is for long-term investors only. If you're looking for an accurate entry-level, wait for my next update. I'm planning to analyze it on a lower timeframe for the short-term investors. It can be helpful to catch the upcoming correction.

Part 1: A simple analysis of Wyckoff of Wall Street Wyckoff was a pioneer in the technical analysis of the stock market in the early 20th century. He established the Stock Market Academy in 1930. The main course is to introduce how to identify the dealer’s process of collecting chips and the process of distributing chips/judge. Second and third, in the basic law of "causality", the horizontal P&F count within the trading range represents the cause, and the subsequent price changes represent the result. Fourth, fifth, the relationship between price and volume on the candlestick chart to analyze the relationship between supply and demand. This law sounds simple, but it takes a long time to practice in order to accurately grasp the volume and price. I heard that Wall Street financial institutions are using Wyckoff's trading method to judge the trend of the stock market and look for opportunities. So what exactly is Wyckoff's theory? Today, I will introduce to you the famous Wyckoff transaction method. The background of the birth of Wyckoff theory Wyckoff's theory was proposed by Richard Wyckoff. He was a pioneer in the technical analysis of the stock market in the early 20th century. He and Dow Jones, Gunn, Elliott, and Merrill Lynch are considered the five giants of technical analysis. Wyckoff is good at summarizing his years of failures in stock investment and is committed to introducing individual investors to the rules of the game in the market and the impact of large funds behind them. In 1930, he established the Stock Market Academy. The main course is to introduce how to identify the dealer's process of collecting chips and the process of distributing chips. Till there are still many professional traders and institutional investors applying Wyckoff's method. Two Five Steps of Wyckoff Analysis (1) Determine the current state of the market and possible future trends. Judging the current market trends and future trends can help us decide whether to enter the market and go long or short. (2) Choose stocks that are consistent with market trends. In an uptrend, choose stocks that are trending stronger than the market. In a downtrend, choose stocks that are weaker than the market. (3) Choose stocks whose "reason" equals or exceeds your minimum target. An important part of Wyckoff's trading selection and management is his unique method of using long-term and short-term trading point forecasts to determine price targets. In Wyckoff's basic law of "causality", the horizontal P&F count within the trading range represents the cause, and subsequent price changes represent the result. (4) Make sure that the stock is ready to move. (5) When the stock market index reverses, there must be contingency measures Three-quarters of the stocks are moving in line with the market. Grasping the market trends can increase the success rate of transactions. Wyckoff's price cycle Wyckoff believes that through detailed supply and demand analysis, including research on price behavior, volume, and time. The market can be understood and predicted. Wyckoff's 3-Laws Wyckoff’s icon analysis method is based on three laws, which affect all aspects of stock analysis. For example, the forecast of the market and individual stocks, how to select stocks, and the appropriate points to enter the market. 1. The principle of supply and demand determines the direction of the price. When supply is less than demand, prices will rise; when supply exceeds demand, prices will fall. Traders can analyze the relationship between supply and demand through the relationship between price and volume on the K-line chart. This law sounds simple, but it takes a long time to practice to accurately grasp the relationship between volume and price. 2. The principle of causality can explain the magnitude of future price rises and falls. Causality can help investors predict target prices. Calculate the size of the future market by calculating the chips in the sideways interval. You can use a point and figure chart to analyze the cause and predict the result. The "cause" is the number of points in the horizontal interval in the point and figure chart, and the "effect" is the ups and downs of the stock price caused by these points. 3. The principle of inconsistent volume and price can provide an early warning of trend changes. Inconsistency between volume and stock prices is often a signal of a change in trend. For example, in the case of continuous heavy volume, the increase in stock prices is getting smaller and smaller. This phenomenon shows that the dealer is shipping. Application of Wyckoff Transaction Law Let's use the dollar index to explain some of Wyckoff's concepts. The long-term bear market after its peak in 2001 ended in 2009. The fall method without resistance from 2001 to 2005 has proved to be an oversold market, and then the rebound in 2005 was relatively large, which we call the market-to-sales ratio (PS), and the subsequent fall speed tells us that the trigeminal indicator (SC) occurred NS. Looking at the increase in AR, the loss of SC is almost flattened, and the resistance of the supply line is completely negated, which shows that demand has absorbed the selling in the supply area. Wyckoff believes that the popularity indicator (AR) is the beginning of the true volatility (TR). Whether this TR is distributed or demanded depends on subsequent development. During the development of TR, CM's methods began to show. From their behavioral characteristics, it can be seen that this TR is a collection and distribution. Of course, after knowing the accumulation or distribution, you also know whether the market outlook is entering a bull market or continuing a bear market. In 2009 and 2011, the position of the ST tells us that the demand is greater than the supply. Otherwise, the demand generated on the SC will be absorbed by the large supply, causing the bear market to continue. Based on these characteristics, we judged that the accumulation may be greater than the distribution. Because if it is a distribution, the supply is still surplus, then any demand accumulated by the rebound will not help, and the price can only continue to look for greater demand. In conclusion: For the Wyckoff transaction law, many professional traders are using it, but the retail public is still not widely used. The completeness, systematicness, and logic of Wyckoff's method, as well as the ability to find high-probability and high-yield transactions, make his stock selection method and investment strategy stand the test of time. Wyckoff’s training methods enable investors to make sensible, fact-based trading decisions without being disturbed by emotions. Using the Wyckoff method, traders can put funds on the side of the smart money that is the main force in the market. As the content of Wyckoff transaction law is more, more knowledge about Wyckoff transaction law, I will write another article to introduce to you.