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S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is. All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground. I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool. The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules. Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy. So, I follow the same process with the ES. I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH). I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks. Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
BCH Long Awaited Breakout of the Multi-Year downtrend incoming? Hi everyone! Today we are looking at Bitcoin Cash (BCH) which has seen its share of drama including unexpected parabolic moves in the past. We're starting our analysis on the Monthly chart so we can zoom ALL the way out, and I am in log mode as I prefer this when I do my technical analysis. The chart looks very different here if you aren't in log mode, but when you turn it on, this YEARLY downtrend line appears, and we happen to be testing it at the moment during an extremely bullish time. I'll be honest, I have not been a fan of BCH in the past, but my feelings about such things have led to missed opportunities, and so when we do TA, we focus on the data, and we try to be as objective as possible to avoid letting bias or emotions influence what we see or do. Now the BCH story is quite interesting if you dig into it. Those that were around when it launched will never forget that day, as you received free BCH,1:1 with Bitcoin (BTC) given it is a fork of BTC. The challenge and drama set in since this was an attempt by a centralized entity led by Roger Ver to try to unseat Bitcoin by offering new features and capabilities he felt were lacking in the original blockchain. But this was met with much controversy, since the greatest value of crypto is in its decentralized ledger, and some might even say its mysterious origins. Who is the real Satoshi? Will we ever know? Is it one person, or a collection of people? Perhaps an entity or a foreign government? We may never know. In fact, I am sure we will never know. In any case, the self-proclaimed "Bitcoin Jesus", Roger Ver, was recently arrested on Fraud Charges. Ver faces three counts of mail fraud, two counts of tax evasion and three counts of subscription to a false tax return, according to the United States Department of Justice. He was an early adopter of Bitcoin, and smart enough to purchase the domain Bitcoin com. He's facing 109 years in prison, which is probably extreme, but it seems that someone is trying to make an example out of him. He's been accused of misuse of power, suppressing innovation, and dissent. Today his networth is estimated in the range of $500 million to $1 billion. On December 3rd, 2024 his legal team filed a motion to dismiss a criminal indictment against him having to do with an exit tax where he's accused of failing to accurately disclose the value of his assets when he renounced his US citizenship in 2014 after acquiring citizenship of St Kitts and Nevis. With the incoming Trump Administration in the United States, and the "Free Roger Ver" movement, one doesn't have to think twice about the potential for a Trump pardon. Trump has been highly favorable to crypto and Bitcoin, which is easily seen by the amount of donations he received from the community and the skyrocketing of the space following his November 5th win. Just yesterday, Trump named David Sacks of the PayPal Mafia as his "Crypto and AI Czar". David Sacks is closely tied to Peter Thiel who brought him into PayPal (see the book: "The Founders") in its early days. Peter Thiel invested heavily in Donald Trump's Presidential Campaign. While David Sacks is also a co-founder and partner of a VC firm Craft Ventures who invested in Multicoin Capital. Multicoin Capital is a VC firm who backed Solana in 2017. Are you making a connection yet? Why all of this backstory? Well, we would be remiss to ignore the macro environment and the potential for favoritism as Trump has already stated intention for multiple Pardons, and today, Roger Ver is one of the leading bets in Polymarket for a pardon. If you were tracking, you'll remember that Polymarket correctly called the U.S. Election. Okay... so without further background speculation, lets get back to the charts with these data points in mind to assist us. Not creating bias, but making us smarter and improving our probabilities. Remember all markets are based on speculation and price is simply a function of supply and demand. Zooming in to the 12 hour chart, identify a few interesting data points: 1. The cup and handle pattern off the most recent high around $720 draws nicely on the chart. 2. The break over the 200-day Moving Average. 3. Notable volume to support the break out of the 200-day MA. 4. Another test and arguably we are seeing a cross over of the multi-year downtrend line. Remember this is in a confirmed Bull Market, along with my rabbit hole analysis of the macro environment that can directly affect speculation on BCH above. This alone gets me excited and bullish on BCH. But it doesn't stop there. I want to provide a different view from the Weekly Chart, where I've tracked over to Binance from the Coinbase chart which has less historical data, and i'm making a potential bear case. It's critical to always consider the bear case on everything. A bear might say, Look at the upward facing wedge pattern, and how the price is just testing the outside of it, which happens to coincide with a key point on the Coinbase chart showing the multi-year downtrend. One should be careful and look for more confirmation on the chart for a breakout, rather than calling a breakout before it happens, since it is just as likely (if not more likely) that we bounce off these lines as resistance. I remain bull however, as I'm using other data points, and we'll take a look at this a little more closely below. Zooming in to the 4-hour chart, I'm tracking 2 upward channels. You can see the larger channel, and the more recent skinnier and steeper channel that have formed. I'm also tracking a fibonacci extension that seems to fit the current move after a quick swing outside of the skinnier channel. What I like about this extension is the bounces off the fibs, with the potential to reach higher extensions that break out of the downtrend. I am also using the bearish rising wedge here to show the risk of the reversal if this is a real resistance point. A quick review of the Weekly Chart on the BTC pairing shows some very obvious signs that support a bullish hypothesis. A breakout of the downward wedge that started from the high in March of this year 2024 also breaks above the BTC 200-day MA, and we see some increasing volume though nothing quite obvious from a volume perspective yet. However, I wouldn't be surprised if that volume increases sharply in the near future. A MACD bullish crossover on this chart would support this hypothesis. We also appear to have potentially completed an ABC correction of the massive move from the lowest low in June 2023. Finally, as we use our fib extension to look for targets of a bull breakout, we see a nice confluence of the May 2021 high falling somewhere in the range of 2.618 and 3.618 extensions. Using multiple view and time scales along with indicators to support our hypothesis is enough to give us a bullish hypothesis. When you add in the very present Roger Ver story, and the storied history of BCH, we realize that there is at least enough speculation for those that missed the opportunity Bitcoin itself provided. While I am indifferent on the potential of BCH, I have no bias or real interest in this asset personally. I can admit that following the BTC 200-day breakout I took a very small position of a single BCH given the upside potential. When considering how to protect yourself against the challenges of inflation, the opportunity the crypto space offers, and the exciting developments we are in store for in the coming year, one cannot ignore the potential BCH provides that is told only by the charts. The opportunity to maximize an investment with BCH has strong risk/reward, given the previous high was $4300 on Coinbase. There's a whole other story behind that parabolic move, but I'll let you look into that one yourself. Thanks for reading and be safe out there! This is for informational purposes only and not a suggestion or recommendation to buy or sell any asset or otherwise. You are responsible for your own decisions no matter where you get information. Never invest if you can't afford it and consider all investing gambling. - Shadowfigure
COINBASE:BCHUSDLong
by Shadowfigure
4
ETH Work to $14.90Beautiful Inverse head and shoulders how people draw necklines is more Art than science I draw mine like this Log tgt projects to old highs So I must be right! lol I jest kinda .. lol You got Eth classic Now you got ETH not so classic, for this bull market to enjoy as well ... which in speculative terms should do better , just because it hasn't been exposed to a bull market before fundamentally this is a way better ETH classic lol ... If it stillworkd and the nodes are synicing up and miners are still mining I have no idea #DYOR #Pulsechain just thought I throw that tag in ... lol
KRAKEN:ETHWUSDLong
by BallaJi
2
ES - S&P500 E-Mini With Target Down To The 60'sHere are a lot of lines cooking. According to the A/R Set (dashed blue), the time seems ripe for a turn to the south, indicated by the yellow down sloping Fork. In it's way to the yellow Centerline are a couple of natural support lines, like the orange A/R-Centerline, creating a confluence with the pink Trendline. A break of this dashed orange CL' would indicate a further drop to the L-MLH (orangen). Then from there again one floor deeper, to the white dashed CL'. And if this support is also not holding, then the Rule Nr. 1 applies to the yellow Centerline. I guess we a nice observation path... P!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Action & Reaction At WorkThis is how Action/Reaction roughly works: 1) take the center of a major swing 2) mesure back and 3) project it forward. Observe how price is acting/reaction at the R-Lines. This is the same principle like: "If you push to a wall, the wall is pushing back." On my new Blog-Post for registered FreeFTG members, I'm going into details about this technique that stem from Newtons 3rd law of motion, and adapted to the charts by Dr. W. Babson, who made a fortune and started the Babson Collage. It pays out to know more then just common trading knowledge... P!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
NEO pullback target and possible entry point Right now I'm 100% invested in ETH. And as I look at most of the pairs that I'm interested in, ETH continues to outperform. I'm long term bullish on NEO and waiting for an entry point. According to my wave count, I'm expecting an intermediate wave (4) pullback. These waves typically pullback to the wave 4 of lesser degree level. In this case, it coincides nicely, with the lower fork trend line. I'd like to scale in starting around 100, hoping I get the chance to get some at $90 as well.
BITFINEX:NEOUSD
by alphahorn
3
BTCUSD - Price Is Stretched To The DownsideAs we see, price is stretched to the downside. Price got rejected at the L-MLH (orange), and is now in bounce mode. I'm considering buying in to this blowoff slowly - if anything... I want to see price stabilising here at the low, then waiting for my signals and then start buying...maybe... ;-) So, no hurry for me, because there are millions of trades waiting to be taken out there. I remember my mentor once said many years ago: "Never let you get sucked into something you have fear to miss..." P! §8-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
BTC - Watch how it reacts at the Warning-LinesI never have seen such a bubble, going nearly straight up to the 8th Warning-Line! But on the way, price reacts at these support/resistance levels (Warning-Lines), drawn in advance by the rules of Action/Reaction (see the white circles). I mean, if this is not taking your attention, and make you thinking about testing the ForkTrading technique... Action/Reaction is a universal law, discovered by Newton. And it influences us in every aspect of our live - if we like it or not. ...and as you can see, even Bitcoin can't hide from it ;-) I remember when my mentor told me, that I could use the Forks even on a chart of temperature, or anything that fluctuate. I was ultra sceptical, because I trapped into many BS., bevor discovering the Forks and Action/Reaction. So the logical thing was, to make my hands dirty and dig deep into this adventure. I worked countless hours, tested what I found many times and finally I was able to filter out what worked for me. (Yes, not every aspect of the original Fork Trading Course from Andrews worked...there are many traps one can fall in because of the old language he used and sometimes weird explanation.) So I spent a good part of my live, discovering the Forks and A/R. I was a member of a group of professional "Forkers", where one of these mentors even was a student of the Inventor, Dr. A. Andrews! I worked very hard and learned there for many years and spent over 10K in this project. The outcome is, what I trade off these days. It's the result of years of continued work - The ForkTrading Method. This combination of a high chance of over 80% when using Forks, and the use of a particular instrument for the trade, for example Options Strategies, ensures me that I will have a fantastic edge when initiating a trade. This method enables me to find high probability trades. Yes I know, it's not a magic money printing machine. We only can manage our trades, but not influence the markets direction, what ever and how ever you will trade. And exactly at this point lies the advantage of the combination of Forks and trading vehicles like Option Strategies or even combination of Futures AND Options AND stocks... What do you think you will get, if you combine high probability methods/systems...? Definitely at least something interesting ;-) OK, but how does this help you? I created the "ForkTrading BLUEPRINT". It's kind of a ultra fast Crash-Course in ForkTrading. Everybody who's going through this ForkTrading BLUEPRINT is able to prove the same what I did. So you don't have to believe me and you can prove it for yourself...hey, I laid the solid ground for you with this still Free ForkTrading BLUEPRINT. In short: - find real high probability trades. - use the edge of the embedded chance of over 80% by nature (A/R) and combine them with other high probability strategies. - look behind the curtain by enhance your knowledge - it's still free ... hell - what else are you looking for? ;-) P!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tr8dingN3rd
2