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BTCUSD Bitcoin Trade Points and Stops from HereBitcoin Update 26th July 11:16Est 06:16Est Bitcoin was a buy on a break above the 8160 line yesterday (though by time comment went live it had already broken higher, sorry- busy day yesterday all round) It was also a buy if missed the first break on a return to the 8160 line overnight, with the low being 8163 since then. But the rally is a little lame so far up 100 or so points. Can raise the stop to 8240 for now. It's effectively back in neutral, yet again in the very near term whilst trading within the range forming overnight and today bounded by support at the 8160 line and resistance at 8298-8320. Has to break above 8320 to return to positive for rally back to 8478-8576 range. Any break above 8600 at any point on rising volume would be extremely positive and can follow long again from that point looking for 8863 initially and then once broken above to 9367. Until then the best we can do is raise the stop as above or close out as close to the 8300 line for 140 points or so profit (if you were around or had orders placed to buy the dip overnight) and be ready to go again on a break above 8320 on rising volume. Returning to the downside potential from here: has to break below the first support line at 8163-8155 range to trigger a 100 point scalp back to 8053. The next support lies at 7944. It must hold up here at lowest on any retests for the uptrend to remain in tact from here. 25th July 22:18 Bst 17:18 Est The bears are really struggling here. We've had 4 minor waves down with the last being a slightly higher low - there's no momentum building on the downside - there are no sellers . And if that;s the case it have to move up until there are some again. The support lines have been adjusted accordingly . This mofo is trying to break above 8170 as this is finished. It's not ready to go down yet. So it should push up instead. Which it's just damn well done. Resistance here at 8230 - must break above here on rising volume to follow long again - it looks ok though to buy the dip if it comes back to 8163 overnight if it sticks here at 8230 - otherwise will have to buy the break higher above 8230 and hope volume picks up behind quickly. If not look to close out again. July 24th Update Bitcoin Update 24th July 09:42 Bst 04:42 Est The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of 05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though. It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far, lacking real intent. The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far. Raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get taken before more buyers appear. * Active traders: For fastest up-dates in real time over the Summer hiatus please check link at top left of main page. You are very welcome to join.
by sumastardon
SPX: S&P 500 Next Trade Points from HereS&P 500 SPX500USD Of the 3 charts followed for S&P 500 index, this one has been the most reliable recently. We were looking for S&P strength as the last but one of the Fangs report earnings with Amazon on 26th after hours. Google has helped overnight. After triple bottoming at the 2790 support line the S&P has rallied higher, making a little spike off the next line at 2809 before pushing higher still. It should move on up to test 2836-2837 on this feed, then consolidate some, perhaps back to 2814 at lows before it rallies again. Has to beat 2837 to trigger further near term strength up to 2876 -2877 where it should top out and reverse if touched later in the week. No point in trying to fight this until earnings are almost done with. The turn may come on 26th. Let's see - time should tell us the next trade from there... 19th July Update Am counting on a 4th wave on the back of earnings in near term - It could use some great results from Microsoft tonight - merely 'good' numbers will be a bit of a let down - on the Dow also and Dax too. Looking at this index in isolation it still looks like it has more upside left and will eventually break higher above 2814 up to 2838 and then after consolidating some more here, it should push on to 2876 highs again. On the downside it has to break below 2798 to short back to 2788/7 where it must bounce again if the trend is to remain positive in the nearer term and for a retest of the highs to remain the likeliest outcome from here.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from HereBitcoin Bitmex Chart Update XBT After 36 hours of consolidation Bitcoin has held above the key 7265 level after a spike low at 7243 on this feed and since then has survived a couple more retests. It's not ready to fall away yet therefore. Looks as if it will make another attempt to touch 7615 and maybe spike into the uppermost parallel again as yesterday - this would take it to the the next line of resistance at 7675 at best before it comes off again - unless we see volume rising fast again at that point. On Bitmex feed it's still effectively stuck in the range bounded by three lines of important resistance at 7615 and 7683 and 7741 and one line of support at 7265, which now needs extending to cover the spike low. Whilst inside the range it looks like scalping opportunities at best for now. Buy on dips towards the 7355 nearest support line with stops just under 7350 looks to be the best option for those looking to trade this inside the range from here. For others, an eventual break either side of the range should be worth following more aggressively. Has to break above 7750 on high volume to follow long looking for 8600. And on the downside has to break below 7240 on rising volumes for next good shorting opportunity, looking for a retest if 6819-6792 range where it should bounce again if tested. But until then it looks like scalping opportunities inside the range. For more active traders: For Bitcoin updates in real-time please see link at top left of main page For Continuity: 18th July - Bitcoin Chart Updates (For all updates since last Bitcoin Update on Tv a month ago can be checked via link at top left of main page) This is a long update - you can skip most of the BS below by scrolling down to the final paragraph. We're at a tricky point, or getting very close to it now. So have tried to give reasoning as best as possible below. Futures Bitcoin held up just above the 7266 support/stop line and then pushed nearly 300 points higher still to a 7560 high overnight before falling away again. The upside target on this feed remains the 7615-7756 range but must admit to not really liking the pattern it's making right now however - am thinking of raising the stop to 7419 - which may well get taken. Otherwise stop has to remain under the 7266 line here, as overnight. Looking for clues to the next move from here. It looks like a grind higher so far, rather than another big volume green candle about to come. Keeping an eye on the volume itself will help to confirm or negate this. Without it Bitcoin still stands a chance of spiking to the 7615 line in the nearterm but is likely to come off again if it makes it there - unless volume is rising very fast underneath it. So upside is 180 or so points probably in the near term and downside is 180 or so to 7266. So as risk/reward ratio is now only 'evens' either side, staying with this long is slowly turning into an act of bravery and defiance over mere calculation at this point in the game. So caution is warranted again here. To add to overhead resistance there's a spooky set of upper parallels forming at the highs overnight. Was thinking these were a case of pareidolia - the invisible spectre that sits at all TA's tables alongside them. It's bad enough to see things that aren't really there without spreading them around others. It's like spreading a virus ! Who needs it? (Unless it's a pattern spotted that warrants further investigation via the chat room - which is what we're all here for in the end, presumably.) Anyway, these two upper parallels do look as if they are in play now and are holding back rally attempts quite effectively so far. The volume on Tether is showing roughly half the volume bar to left of chart, the start of the last decent counter rally. It implies that the rally is running out of upside interest from here. For more please check the link
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
8
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Potential Trade Points From HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Points From Here After a surprisingly active weekend of over 750 points profit (from 7579 before getting stopped out at 6825, stop was too close by about 45 points or so here, sorry) Bitcoin has moved back into neutral in the nearterm. On the Bitmex chart Bitcoin is now moving in a 200 point range bounded by near term resistance at 6860 and near term support at 6660. Its best hope now is for it to hold up until US opens and to find buyers enough from there to break above 6815 on Futures and 6860 here on Bitmex - the ensuing counter-rally should be worth following back to 7056 and 7200-7289 at best if we see it develop later. But at the moment Bitcoin is drifting on lack of interest either way, nearterm neutral but will remain vulnerable whilst unable to regain and hold the 6860 line here. It now has to break below 6600 to trigger a quick short opportunity to 6481-6428 (often the only way to trade it is to place orders and limits on Bitmex beforehand most likely. The spikes often show imprints in the trail where other traders have done the same thing). On the downside there are a series of closely positioned support levels beginning at 6660, then 6518-6481 and last-gasp support at 6428 - which must hold up today for Bitcoin bulls to stand any chance from here. This might make trading the break lower trickier than usual so will need to take care if trading this part of the range. But any failure to hold 6420 from this point today will likely flip Bitcoin down to 5887 next. So 6425 is most likely the point that swings and day traders are likely to start to short more aggressively when broken with stops either quite tight above, and no higher than 6620.
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
6
GBPUSD: Month-End Update and next Trade Points from HereGBPUSD Update 31st May Month End Streling has fallen to the downside target at 1.3301 after a low at the old 1.3219 support line for a 150 pip or so profit. Eventually it should fall away further to the next support line at 1.3029 but in the near term the counter-rally is already pushing the upper dynamic at 1.3345. It should stop here really looking at this chart in isolation. But DXY looks like it has more unwinding to do in near term and so this could push higher still from here. The difficult bit in the immediate near term is figuring whether the near term reversal point is right here at 1.3345 or at the next line above here at 1.3462 - but it's going to fall away again from one of these two lines most likely and then test 1.3029 in June.
Short
by sumastardon
UK100: FTSE 100 Index Trade Set-Ups from Here31st May FTSE 100 Index Update UK100 FTSE bounced away nicely off the support zone at 7600-7580 and really we should have reversed back long off 7600 with stops below 7580. My bad here. But it's beginning to struggle and if you were slick enough to reverse long again without prompting the long stop needs raising to just under 7680 here. Any failure to hold this level will open the door to another short back to 7600-7580 range which must hold up when retested if this index to avoid a more protracted fall over the summer months back to the 7340-7294 range. Returning to the upside in the very near term FTSE is on a knife-edge and trying hard to form a little bull flag using the support line at 7685 as the base - once 7680 fails the flag fails and we get a short opportunity from there, as above. But there is also a chance that the flag will succeed at this point but it will need to push above 7715 here to follow long with stops below 7680 looking for 7745 minimum and 7792 at a likely maximum before it falls away again. For real-time updates for more active traders of the major markets (outside of Crypto) please see the link at top left of main page
OANDA:UK100GBP
by sumastardon
WTI Near Term Topping FormationWTI: USOIL West Texas Intermediate Unlike on Brent chart there is only one clear and true reverse head and shoulders evident on the WTI chart (left shoulder not 'true' on the smaller one, yet so clearly evident on the Brent chart, please see companion forecast for UKOIL for comparison). So this chart is still forecasting longer term upward pressure to the eventual minimum upside target implied by the RHS at 84.82. However, in the nearer term WTI continues to flip within the 150 pip forecast range but due to Brent reaching a significant target point the lower end of the range at 71.30 on WTI is likley to give way at some point quite soon. If you've been playing this range over the last week it's holding right now at 150 pips off the high pretty much but not worth buying again here. It should fall away to 69.69 and if that then fails to the lower parallel at 66.81. Any subsequent failure from here on to hold on to that lower parallel will tip WTI back into bear territory - can then follow short again if we see it further out in time.
FX:USOILShort
by sumastardon
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from Here The pattern Bitcoin is currently making is treacherous and too unclear to contemplate a trade at this point. It looks and feels more manipulated right now than ever - as if price is being left to run a little higher to stop hunt weak bears before it gets reeled back in again. It should only get as far as the upper parallel at around 7578 now at best on Bitfinex before it falls away again. To break the downtrend Bitcoin has to find buyers enough to push back above the uppermost parallel and to hold it on the retest. It looks unlikely now, but if we see it happen later on it should be worth following for a potential weekend rally. But in its absence Bitcoin remains stuck in a down-trend and the dearth of support coming from US as it opens means it should fall away again quite soon now from the 7525-7578 range. But even the downside is uncertain at present and it could be that Bitcoin tries to establish a double bottom around the 7318-7263 range when it does come off again. Be careful with the short at this point. Needs volume spike to arrive to push it lower still from there. If it comes and 7250 gives way it's good to follow short again or add to positions looking for 7162 in near term and further out a decline in stages back to 6615-6517 range.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
8
ETHUSD Next Trade Points from HereETHUSD Bitfinex Although it's bounced off the support line at 543 after a spike low at 538 ETH is still vulnerable until it clamber back above the 593 line here and hold up on the restest once it does so. If you bought off the 543 line here it's not a bad idea to take at least half off the table again if not all. It will follow Bitcoin as usual. Can buy again once we see 593 retaken and held again for less risk. All alts should have been sold when Bitcoin fell below 9300 if you go back that far... Still no evidence here to warrant buying back again at this point yet. But it's trying at least.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
2
BTCUSD Next Larger Trades from HereBitcoin (Bitstamp) Update Just flipping up and down inside the continuation pattern so far still. What looks like 3 minor waves up so far - can be another one soon but still the pattern here is not worth trading unless playing off the minor parallels for scalps right now. As before it has to break the 8468 line here for a rally to 8539 where there is quite a lot of overhead resistance potential. Bitcoin really has to break above here to start attracting more buyers and to start flipping short stops quite quickly. So this is the point where swing traders are most likely to join any rally - we can too if we see it happen later. Otherwise the field belongs to day traders in the near term. On the downside we need to see a break below the lower parallel of the continuation pattern to trigger another short. If the bears can keep price under the lower parallel this will eventually fall away again until buyers can be found once more. It should then fall to the 8240-8161 range and when broken below will start to pick up speed to 7797 at least, if not to 7562. But be careful of the break lower if and when it comes. It may only fall to 8286 -8240 range to start with - if it rallies again from there do not want it bouncing much above 8351 and back to the underside of the lower small rising parallel once broken below. And ideally we want to see no real bounce at all - at any rate a break below the 8240-8161 range on this feed by 10 or more points will tip Bitcoin back into negative and us into full-on bear mode again, targeting 7797 at least, then 7562 and potenially much lower still.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
Bitcoin BTCUSD Weekend Trade OpportunitiesBitcopin Update Saturday 08:45gmt 03:45est So far the low this weekend is 8223, a couple of points below the next near term downside target at 8225. Bitcoin is now counter-rallying back to test the upper parallel at 8330-8350 and should come off again from here and from 8392 at highest before falling away to 8155 and ideally then to a low around 7946 on Coinbase before making a meaningful rally. To eascape the downtrend earlier than this Bitcoin has to break above 8392 and hold up there on the retest. That looks unlikely at present but we still need to be prepared for it just in case a reversal occurs earlier than curently anticipated. Bitcoin Coinbase Weekend Forecast Friday 22:38gmt This feed had to break below 8660 and the lower parallel to trigger next short which it did before rallying back up to break level, exceeding it by 11 points before falling away again. It's now testing the support line at 8400 which is previous structure highs. Although it should put a fight here for a while and can rally back tot the upper parallel again it should fall away again later. Can close out the short here and re-enter on a fall below 8370. It should fall away in stages then to 8225, then 8155 and perhaps finally to a 7946 low. On the upside Bitcoin has to break above the parallel controlling the upside to get any near term respite from the bears .
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
4
BTCUSD Bitcoin Next Trade Points from HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trades from Here 19:41gmt 12:41est This still looks corrective at this point. No big green impulse wave starting yet which would be the first signal that this is a real bottom here. It's the weekend coming up and still no sign of buyers in any numbers. But there is a chance so we need to cover it in case - it is holding here still at least. But it has to break above 8654 - 8680 get free of the parallels and trigger a long with stops under 8630. Otherwise and in absence of break higher we wait for a potential break lower needing to see the lows broken by 10 points or more before moving short again (as outlined previously above) 15:42 gmt 10:42est Bitcoin Bitstamp Continuation Patterns Can rally to 8654 but looks unlikely to get much higher at this point. The last patterns lasted for 4 hours or more - this one is about 2 hours 40 minutes old so far 17:10gmt 12:10est Still not a good look so far .... Day traders playing the range - buying off the lower parallel and selling from the upper . Has to break the lower parallel to get short again.And has to break and not spike above 8654 for an 80 point spurt to 8736 where the second parallel lies in wait. It then has to break above this line to run free for a while longer to 8822-8830 minimum and potentially back to 9000. But so far this rally can still not be trusted 17:59 gmt 12:59est Daytraders now closing out longs again and some reversing short again off the 8654 line - can push higher towards upper parallel - but still cannot think of a long unless the upper falling parallel is broken above. This is still just a continuation pattern at the moment. That only changes if the upper parallel is broken from here.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trade Points From HereBitcoin Trade Points Today Bitcoin was left looking at a counter-rally 'towards 9700 before it comes off again'. It took another 7 hours or so of whipsaw and confusion to get there but by 01:00 gmt/20:00est Bitcoin made a high at 9671, taking out more stops placed just below here in the mind-numbing game of Pacman/hunt the stop that lasted right through the US session and only came alive again as far Eastern markets reopened. Then, finally the break materialised as Bitcoin fell through the lower parallel of the continuation pattern and we then got a decent streak of tradeable red - that is if you hadn't been sent to sleep in the meantime. But if you were patient enough to stay with it you got the rewards - in the end. Trading Bitcoin is similar to fishing. Both need the patience to wait for the fish to come to you. It was meant to fall back to the 9253-9180 range before rallying again with any real power behind it. The low so far is 9207. Since then Bitcoin has fallen away to create a new pair of parallels, bouncing off the lower parallel and making another small continuation pattern in a smaller pair of rising parallels withing the larger falling parallel formation. It's now touching resistance off the upper smaller rising parallel and vulnerable once more - a sell from here with stops above the same small parallel. It can spend several hours messing with heads again like yesterday, falling to the lower parallel of the continuation pattern and rallying again, potentially as high as 9469 and the upper parallel later on, though in near term the 9375 line is proving hard to beat. Long story short, we're looking a pattern similar to yesterday's so far. Sheesh. It looks like it has longer to play out but the pattern can break at any point really. It's therefore in day trader territory right now again. To escape the downtrend it has to break above the 9469 line and hold - if we see it materialise later can follow long with stops below. And on the downside after more time spent moving within the rising parallels of the continuation pattern the next short gets triggered on a break below the lower rising parallel under price now with stops above. Until then this is likely to drive us nuts with frustration. Patience or time-out in meantime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
15
ETHUSD Ethereum Long and Short Term Outlook from HereETHUSD Long Term/Short Term Price Forecast Per Adua ad Astra Long Term That low at 360 was as big and meaningful as Bitcoin's at 6000. Perfect Gann numbers too. Like, reeaally PERFECT. Those lows are equivalent of the lows reached in the first internet cycle when Nasdaq Composite fell from 5136 to 1118, a decline of 78% in magnitude, playing out in 4 large waves over 31 months. For ETH the fall was from 1417 to 360, a decline of 74% - in 3 large waves over less than 3 months, so 10 times the speed of the Nasdaq/Internet generation1 exactly. Look what happened to Nasdaq Composite since: now at 7209 - up nearly 7 times over 16 years. No real reason to figure that the Alt markets will perform any differently in the longer term. Just 10 times quicker maybe! And if that's the case it's effectively a buy dips market for the next 1.6 years or 18 months or so - during which time ETH can reach 360 x 7 = 2520. Stay long and keep tracking it as it rises. Time will tell, as always. Shorter Term On and on towards the stars - a little local difficulty at 820 in very near term but it should push higher with Bitcoin still driving both Northwards but ETH still outperforming beautifully. This has already become the key larger market player in the resurrection we see across the market in general. Could be Google back in the day... It should push on to 869 and 896 (900) and later to 978 where it should spend time consolidating before breaking higher stiill (add at this point) to 1400 and yes, one day to 2520 too. Time will tell...never fails. Here's to ETH. Let's hope it doesn't either.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by sumastardon
4
BTCUSD Back to Positive: Next Trade Points from Here Bitcoin Bitstamp Update After the break higher Bitcoin has spent the night consolidating recent gains. It's a buy again once the dynamic from the overhight high has been broken above with stops below the 9224 line when the dynamic is broken above. Until then Bitcoin is still in consolidating mode and moving sideways to unwind using the 9175 line as support as it does so. So near term neutral. Has to break below 9130 on Bitstamp to turn negative back to 9011 . But so far price action is positive and it should break higher again later so long as the 9175 line and the 9130 level at lowest continues to hold from here. The next resistance lies at 9482 and then 9887 and the uppermost parallel. As things currently stand we have a decent chance of retesting it later this weekend. 22:32gmt 17:32est Last Update Target achieved -should come back some - if still long raise stop again to 9148
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
BTCUSD Bitcoin Next Trade Points from HereBTCUSD Bitcoin Bitfinex Update: Next Trade Points from Here Finally a break - so quick it's over - justa quick 100 points. But these trades can happen so quickly because other traders have trigger levels and limits pre-set in the market - often on both sides - They hit and trigger or they don't. This has to break 7810-7800 range to add or open a new short back to 7596 10:22 gmt 05:22est Bitcoin is effectively back to square 1, at the same price point it was printing 24 hours ago and facing the same problems again too. A groundhog day so far. The rally has helped to shift Bitcoin into neutral again from outright bearish and gives Bitcoin bulls a fighting chance from here but whilst unable to regain and hold above the 8180 line on Bitfinex the bears in this fight are not going to raise a white flag any time soon. Bitcoin has to push above 8180 and sustain it to break the bear hold and to trigger the next long shot up to 8400-8456 range with stops at least 30 lower. But in very near term until 8110 can be taken back and held by the bulls Bitcoin is still vulnerable to selling pressure with the 8070 support line now quite important to the near term from here. It has to break below here to end this near term neutality and to force it back lower still to 7960-7955. Worth a short if triggered. But there is no aggressive short on offer right now. It has to break below 7800 for that to happen in which case we can short again back to 7600-7595 range. So overall neutral to mildly bearish right now - and back to waiting for the next trade to trigger from here. For now we need to be patient, to wait and not get tired by waiting. Yet again.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD Weekend Trade Points From HereBitcoin BItfinex Weekend Trade Points From Here The low overnight was 7820 on Bitstamp, some 30 points away from target range. To add to the poor call the stop was lowered to 7917 and the high about 10 minutes later was 7922 - that 5 points was just enough to destroy the short for 80 or so points profit when it might have been more. It also prevented a potential reverse long from triggering in the process. Not too good but could have been worse. Since then Bitcoin has formed a smaller continuation pattern within a larger bear flag, emerging from its upside with a nice pulse of green up to the next resistance line at 8163 after a high at 8185. It should come back to the 8046-8013 range where it should then rally again for a 4th and maybe minor 5th wave up which has to break above 8232 line to fly higher still today and trigger the next long from here with stops 50 or more lower if we see it later on. If it can manage this the next resistance lies off the upper parallel of the flag. A sell again from there if touched at any point later this weekend. Bitcoin Coinbase Update Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
11