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Fundamental Analysis

BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIESBalkrishna Industries Ltd. is a global manufacturer of off-highway tires, serving sectors such as agriculture, construction, mining, industrial, and forestry. With a premium export-led product mix and deep global penetration, the company continues to scale operations through automation, brand partnerships, and diversified geographic strategies. The stock is currently trading at ₹2,742.10. Balkrishna Industries Ltd. – FY22–FY25 Snapshot Sales – ₹7,112 Cr → ₹7,446 Cr → ₹7,895 Cr → ₹8,475 Cr – Recovery and volume expansion in export markets Net Profit – ₹952 Cr → ₹998 Cr → ₹1,072 Cr → ₹1,165 Cr – Margin resilience despite input cost volatility Company Order Book – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong – Improved visibility from OEM and aftermarket channels Dividend Yield (%) – 0.88% → 0.91% → 0.95% → 1.00% – Stable payouts supported by free cash flows Operating Performance – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong – Volume and ASP mix supporting margins Equity Capital – ₹38.66 Cr (constant) – Efficient capital structure Total Debt – ₹260 Cr → ₹245 Cr → ₹229 Cr → ₹210 Cr – Conservative leverage, improving coverage Total Liabilities – ₹2,460 Cr → ₹2,530 Cr → ₹2,595 Cr → ₹2,660 Cr – Stable expansion with operating scale Fixed Assets – ₹1,470 Cr → ₹1,525 Cr → ₹1,580 Cr → ₹1,635 Cr – Strategic capex on automation and green initiatives Latest Highlights FY25 net profit rose 8.7% YoY to ₹1,165 Cr; revenue increased 7.3% to ₹8,475 Cr EPS: ₹60.13 | EBITDA Margin: 25.4% | Net Margin: 13.74% Return on Equity: 19.42% | Return on Assets: 11.95% Promoter holding: 58.30% | Dividend Yield: 1.00% Growth in U.S. and Brazil market offset moderate Europe volumes Automation-led capex improving plant efficiency and delivery timelines Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends Promoter holding remains solid at 58.30% with no pledging or dilution. FIIs have maintained positions with marginal increases, while DIIs have held steady. Recent delivery volume trends indicate quiet accumulation among institutions focused on export-driven and specialty manufacturing narratives. Business Growth Verdict Yes, Balkrishna Industries continues to build scale and resilience Margins remain firm across markets despite volatility Debt and liability management reflect financial discipline Capex strategies align with operational efficiency and environmental goals Company Guidance Management expects continued expansion in export markets and steady profitability, with emphasis on improving automation and sustainability across manufacturing processes. Final Investment Verdict Balkrishna Industries Ltd. stands out as a consistent performer in India’s specialty manufacturing space. Its global footprint, strong cash flows, efficient capital deployment, and resilience across market cycles position the company well for long-term value creation. Continued operational leverage and conservative financial practices make it suitable for accumulation by investors seeking industrial exposure with stable returns.
NSE:BALKRISINDLong
by TechnicalAnalystSucrit
Gold market price trend analysis and operation strategyGold trend analysis: Gold reached a high of 3366 yesterday, a low of 3320, and closed at around 3325. From the daily chart, the performance of the daily cycle is high and closed negative, and it may not be able to go out of the big rise in the short term. Gold will fall into range fluctuations. The rise of gold in this cycle has not actually been completed. At least it needs to go to the high point of 3400, and then look at the adjustment space within the week, but don’t look too much at the strength of the rise. The general trend is bullish, and we must also beware of the adjustment space that may fall back at any time. Gold tried 3375 several times yesterday and failed to break through, and then fell back for adjustment, indicating that the pressure on 3375 is obvious, that is, gold needs to fall back and correct in the short term. At this time, we are cautious about chasing more and continue to buy more after falling back. From the 4-hour chart, gold rose and fell yesterday, and the bearish trend did not continue. Gold entered a period of adjustment. From the current K-line, the downward momentum of gold is slowing down, and it tends to rebound in the short term. In the 4-hour chart, the lower track support of the Bollinger Band is near 3320, and the position of the middle track of the Bollinger Band is near 3345, which will form a short-term resistance. From the 1-hour chart, after yesterday's drop to 3320, it was strongly supported again and pulled up to above 3330. The support below is still strong. If the European session rises and breaks through 3350 today, the US session may go to the resistance of 3365-3375. Before breaking through 3350, the current market can only be regarded as a bottom adjustment and correction. Today, we will first focus on the rebound strength. If the upward momentum weakens, pay attention to the support of 3310-3300 below, and wait for the decline to be mainly low-multiple. In the short term, we will first focus on the breakthrough of the shock range. The intraday idea is to fall back to low-multiple. FX:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Senior_Analyst
1
Gold rebounded and shorted in the New York market.Trump's recent remarks about "possibly firing Fed Chairman Powell" triggered risk aversion in the market, and gold once surged to $3,377, but then Trump denied the plan and gold prices fell back to fluctuate in the 3,340-3,350 range; the U.S. PPI in June was flat month-on-month, lower than expected, easing market concerns about the Fed's immediate tightening of policy, but long-term inflation expectations still support gold; Israel's air strikes on Syria have exacerbated tensions in the Middle East, and safe-haven demand has boosted gold; Trump threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, and global trade uncertainty still supports gold's safe-haven properties; gold fluctuated and fell today. After yesterday's big rise, gold gradually fell today. Today, gold fluctuated weakly, and the 4-hour moving average crossed downward. The gold price gradually moved toward the lower Bollinger band, and the Bollinger band opened downward. The trend is more bearish. In terms of operation, we recommend that gold rebound and go short. FOREXCOM:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD VANTAGE:XAUUSD CMCMARKETS:GOLD VANTAGE:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Charlie_Senior_Analyst
ETEL - strong fundamentals.EGX:ETEL 1-hour timeframe: A potential bearish Gartley pattern targets 41.50. If prices reach 41.55 (without breaking 37.00), it becomes a sell point with targets at 39.73 and 38.60. Conversely, if prices continue rising and close above 42.70, rebuy what was sold at 41.50, targeting 52.00. This setup is both strategic and supported by strong fundamentals. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, only our analysis based on chart data. Consult your account manager before investing.
EGX:ETELLong
by tfcgeorge
Gold Rejects Resistance Again – Gold Rejects Resistance Again ?Gold is currently trading near $3,335, showing signs of exhaustion after a failed breakout above the recent consolidation range. The market attempted to push higher but lacked strong momentum, leading to a pullback and possible shift in bias. The price is forming lower highs, indicating bearish pressure building up on the 4H timeframe. Gold is showing weakness after a second breakout followed by a possible retest failure. The market structure indicates a bearish bias 🔍 Market Structure Overview: - Two Breakouts: Price attempted two bullish breakouts recently. The first breakout gained some traction, while the second failed to hold above resistance. - Failed Retest: Price has now returned back near the previous breakout zone (~$3,332), signaling a potential bearish reversal pattern. - The chart structure suggests a distribution phase, with price struggling to hold gains, and sellers slowly gaining control. 🧭 Key Support and Resistance Levels: ✅ Resistance Zones: - $3,337.54 – Immediate resistance (recent rejection zone) - $3,348.03 – Strong resistance if price pushes above $3,337 - $3,412.76 – Major resistance from previous swing high - $3,490.40 – Long-term psychological resistance 🔻 Support Zones: - $3,318.94 – Immediate support (just below current price) - $3,303.46 – Key fib retracement (0.382 level) - $3,248.28 – Strong horizontal support (major zone) - $3,193.11 – Fibonacci extension level (-0.382) - $3,159.02 – Next support zone (Fibo -0.618 level) 🟠 Current Bias: Bearish to Neutral – as long as price remains below $3,337. If price breaks and holds above $3,337 with volume, short-term bullish reversal is possible. Yeterday there was a fake news and gold was pumped but after clarification it was dumped. It means buyers are not much interested till fed next meeting and the high price of the gold. Sellers will short the gold on every rise while buyers will wait for low price of the gold for long term trade. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Zoom (ZM): Potential Long Setup at Demand ZoneZoom Video Communications (ZM) recently experienced a rejection at a key demand zone on its weekly chart. Non-commercial traders have increased their long positions, and forecasts suggest a potential upward trend. I'm considering a long trade setup based on a retest of that demand zone. What are your thoughts? ✅ Please share your thoughts about ZOOM in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by FOREXN1
1
SP500 ES Weekly Recap | ATH Deviation → Pullback or Powell Pump?Overview: ES made a new all-time high last week, sweeping the previous high with strong momentum. However, the move ended up being a deviation, and the price quickly reversed — suggesting short-term exhaustion. Bearish Scenario (Baseline): 🔻 Rejection from ATH 🔻 Possible retracement targets: 12H Swing Low (turquoise line) Weekly Fair Value Gap (purple zone) I believe a pullback into those levels could provide bullish continuation setups for new highs. I’ll look for LTF confirmation once price reaches those zones. Bullish Scenario (Catalyst-Driven): 🚨 If Fed Chair Powell resigns this week (a circulating macro rumor), the market may not wait for retracement. This could lead to an aggressive breakout, driving ES and risk assets straight into new ATHs again. Plan: ✅ Watch for LTF confirmation after pullback ✅ Stay open to both scenarios ✅ Focus on HTF bullish structure as long as key levels hold
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by UA_CAPITAL
My Long Shot This Cycle Starknet's Post-Listing Crucible: Forging a Bottom for the Next Rally From Airdrop Volatility to a Foundational Base: Starknet's Path Forward in 2025 Starknet (STRK) is currently navigating the most critical phase of its young market lifecycle: the post-listing price discovery. Trading at approximately $0.143 as of July 17, 2025, the asset is emerging from the crucible of its initial token generation event. The preceding price action was not a traditional bear market but a period of intense supply absorption, primarily driven by airdrop recipients and early-stage investors. The chart now suggests this initial selling pressure is waning, and a structured accumulation base is being forged. Current Market Context The data captures the aftermath of STRK's launch. After an initial period of high volatility, the price entered a significant downtrend, culminating in a capitulation low of $0.096 in March 2025. This level represents the point of peak supply saturation, where the last of the short-term sellers likely capitulated into the hands of long-term conviction buyers. The subsequent price action has been a slow, methodical grind upwards, a textbook sign that the market is building a cause for a future, more sustainable trend. Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic: Interpreting the Post-Launch Bottom The price action from February to July 2025 aligns perfectly with a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, providing a powerful framework for understanding the market's behaviour after the initial listing supply shock. Selling Climax (SC): The low at $0.096 represents the climax of airdrop-related selling pressure. This is the genesis low where the market first found significant, high-conviction demand. Automatic Rally (AR) & Secondary Test (ST): The bounce to ~$0.13 (the AR) and the subsequent retest of the lows (the ST) established the boundaries of the new accumulation trading range. This phase defined the battlefield between residual supply and emerging demand. Phase C - The Spring: The dip to $0.121 in late April served as a classic "Spring." This final shakeout was designed to liquidate late short positions and induce panic from weak hands before the true upward move began, effectively clearing the path. Phase D - Last Point of Support (Current Phase): The current consolidation around $0.143 is a textbook "Last Point of Support" (LPS). The market is coiling, building energy, and undergoing a final test of supply within the range. This phase is critical as it demonstrates the market's ability to absorb any remaining sell-side pressure before attempting to leave the accumulation zone. A decisive breakout above the range high near $0.24 would confirm the completion of this multi-month accumulation and signal the start of a new major uptrend (Phase E). Moving Average & Ichimoku Cloud Analysis: A Trend in Transition Key trend-following indicators are beginning to reflect this potential shift from a post-listing downtrend to a new uptrend. Moving Averages (4-Hour Chart): The price is currently battling to establish the 50-period moving average (MA) as support. The 200 MA still looms overhead as the primary long-term trend resistance. The most anticipated technical event in the coming weeks is a "Golden Cross" (50 MA crossing above the 200 MA). This would serve as a widely recognized technical confirmation that the asset is exiting its bottoming phase. Ichimoku Cloud (4-Hour Chart): Price is currently interacting with the Kumo (Cloud). A definitive break and close above the cloud would be a powerful signal, flipping the cloud from resistance to a dynamic support zone and confirming a bullish trend change on this timeframe. Price Projection Timeline Q3 2025 (July - September): The primary objective is to complete Phase D with a sustained move above the $0.154 (38.2% Fib) and $0.172 (50% Fib) resistance levels. This would constitute the "Sign of Strength" (SOS) that signals an imminent attempt to break out of the accumulation range. Q4 2025 (October - December): Following a successful Q3, the focus will shift to conquering the major resistance at $0.24. This level represents the top of the Wyckoff range and a key psychological area from the initial listing period. A breakout above this zone would confirm the accumulation thesis and likely trigger a rapid expansion towards the first major target of $0.28 - $0.32. Key Levels to Monitor Support Zones: Primary: $0.121 (The "Spring" level; must hold to maintain immediate bullish structure). Major: $0.096 (The Post-Airdrop Low; the definitive floor of this market cycle). Resistance & Target Zones: Immediate: $0.154 (Fibonacci and structural resistance). Target 1: $0.172 - $0.190 (The "Golden Pocket" resistance cluster). Target 2 / Major Resistance: $0.24 (Top of the accumulation range). Blue Sky Target 1 (Post-Breakout): $0.28 - $0.32. Conclusion: The Foundation is Set, Awaiting Ignition The technical evidence strongly indicates that Starknet has successfully navigated the initial, chaotic phase of its public life and has spent months building a robust accumulation base. The price action is not random but a structured absorption of the initial supply overhang. While the path to $1.00 is a long-term journey that depends heavily on fundamental execution and market-wide sentiment, the technical roadmap for the remainder of 2025 is clear. The immediate goal is to validate the Wyckoff accumulation pattern by breaking out of the current range and reclaiming the $0.24 level. Achieving this would signal that the market has fully digested the launch-day supply and is ready to price the asset based on its future potential, setting the stage for a true bull run.
COINBASE:STRKUSDLong
by PHANT0M
Trade Setup: EUR/USD 15min | OB Mitigation Play⚙️ Type: Countertrend (Risk-managed Buy) Direction: Long Entry Zone: 1.15850–1.15886 (Refined OB) Entry Type: Buy Limit Stop Loss: Below the OB low → 1.15790 Take Profit Targets: TP1: 1.16043 (minor imbalance fill) TP2: 1.16140 (supply zone re-test / 50% fib) Risk to Reward: ~1:3 minimum (depending on fill and management) 🎯 Why This Setup Works Price swept sell-side liquidity into a refined OB from the CPI move. Confluence with 0.786 retracement, suggesting algo entry interest. Strong momentum imbalance above gives room for retracement pullback. DXY showing signs of short-term exhaustion at intraday highs. 🔒 Invalidation Criteria 15m candle close below 1.15790 Clean break and hold of OB low → Flip bias bearish
Long
by sam_trades_smc
Gold fluctuated downward. Stuck in a stalemate.Information summary: Global investors have experienced the longest night this year. There are reports that Trump has drafted a letter to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The incident triggered a strong reaction in the financial market. An hour later, Trump came out to clarify that "there is no plan to take any action" and denied drafting a letter to fire Powell. Due to the impact of the incident, gold experienced a roller coaster market, soaring more than $50 at one time, hitting a three-week high of $3,377.17, and then narrowed its gains to 0.68%, and finally closed at $3,347.38. In today's Asian market, gold fell slightly and is currently hovering around $3,325. Market analysis: The current volatility pattern has not changed. In the short term, the market shows signs of weakness, which is also affected by CPI data, and expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened. In the current state where there is no break in the pattern, waiting and watching is still the best strategy. The first support level is around 3,310, which is the starting point of last week's high. The second is around 3280, which is the historical low since July and also the starting point of the rise in the first week of July.
FX:XAUUSD
by quaid_2
Bitcoin Forever Bitcoin's Technical Trajectory: Analysis for Q3-Q4 2025 Breaking New Records: Bitcoin's Path Beyond the July Peak With Bitcoin currently trading near historical highs after reaching its all-time high of $123,218 in July 2025, we find ourselves in unprecedented territory. This comprehensive technical analysis examines Bitcoin's potential trajectory through the remainder of 2025, leveraging multiple analytical frameworks to identify probable price targets and key levels. Current Market Context Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable ascent in 2025, climbing from around $85,000 in January to establish a new all-time high of $123,218 in July. After this peak, we've seen a period of consolidation with price action forming a potential bull flag pattern between $117,000-$120,000. This consolidation phase represents a critical juncture for Bitcoin's next directional move. The most recent data shows Bitcoin trading around $118,200 in late July, representing a modest pullback of approximately 4% from the all-time high. This shallow retracement suggests underlying strength rather than exhaustion in the primary trend. RSI Analysis: Healthy Momentum Reset Despite Bitcoin's extraordinary rise to $123,218 in July, the daily RSI has demonstrated remarkable resilience. After reaching overbought territory (70+) during the July peak, the indicator has now cooled to approximately 42-46, indicating a healthy reset of momentum conditions without surrendering the broader uptrend. The weekly RSI reading of 46.4 is particularly significant—showing that despite the recent consolidation, Bitcoin maintains substantial momentum capacity before reaching the extreme readings (80+) that typically signal major cycle tops. This technical positioning creates an ideal scenario where momentum has reset while price structure remains intact. Most notably, the absence of bearish divergences between price and RSI on higher timeframes suggests the current consolidation is likely a pause rather than a reversal in the primary trend. Wyckoff Analysis: Re-accumulation Before Continuation The price action following the $123,218 July peak displays classic characteristics of Wyckoff re-accumulation rather than distribution: The initial decline from the peak represents a "Preliminary Support" (PS) phase The subsequent trading range between $117,000-$120,000 shows tight price action with decreasing volatility Volume characteristics show diminishing selling pressure rather than distribution Recent price action suggests we're approaching the "Spring" phase that typically precedes markup According to the data, Bitcoin's price action in late July shows decreasing volatility with narrowing price ranges, consistent with the "Cause Building" phase in Wyckoff methodology. This structure indicates institutional accumulation is still occurring at these elevated levels—a powerful sign that smart money anticipates further upside potential. The completion of this re-accumulation pattern projects a move toward the $135,000-$145,000 range in the coming months. Supply/Demand Zone Analysis: Key Levels Identified Supply and demand zone analysis reveals critical price levels that will influence Bitcoin's next directional move: Major demand zone established between $115,000-$117,000 (recent consolidation floor) Secondary support cluster at $108,000-$110,000 (previous resistance turned support) Primary resistance at $123,200-$125,000 (all-time high region) Limited historical supply overhead above $123,218 suggests minimal resistance once this level is breached The formation of fresh demand zones during the recent consolidation indicates strategic accumulation before the anticipated upward expansion. The neutralization of previous supply zones during the advance to all-time highs has effectively cleared the technical pathway for Bitcoin's next significant move higher. Volume Analysis: Confirming the Bullish Case Examination of trading volume during the recent consolidation provides crucial validation for our bullish thesis: Declining volume during pullbacks indicates diminishing selling pressure Volume spikes on upward moves suggest accumulation on strength The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) maintains a positive slope, confirming the underlying strength of the trend The high-volume node has migrated upward in recent weeks, signalling comfort with accumulation at these unprecedented price levels—a powerful indication of market confidence in Bitcoin's valuation. The buying/selling volume differential maintains a positive bias, confirming underlying accumulation despite price consolidation. Fibonacci Extension Framework: Projecting Targets With Bitcoin having established a new all-time high at $123,218 in July, we can project potential targets using Fibonacci extensions from the most recent significant swing points: The 127.2% extension from the June-July rally projects to approximately $132,000 The 161.8% extension suggests potential movement toward $145,000 The 200% extension indicates a possible target of $160,000 These projections align with psychological thresholds that could serve as natural targets in this new price discovery phase. Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Fifth Wave Scenario The current price action suggests we're likely in an extended fifth wave scenario within a larger degree bull cycle: Primary waves I through III appear complete with the move to $123,218 in July The current consolidation represents wave IV Wave V is projected to reach the $140,000-$160,000 range This wave count suggests potential for continued appreciation toward the $145,000-$160,000 range before a more significant corrective phase begins. The internal structure of the current consolidation displays textbook proportional relationships, further validating our analysis. Price Projection Timeline August-September 2025: Completion of the current consolidation phase with a potential final retest of support in the $115,000-$117,000 range. This would represent the "Last Point of Support" in Wyckoff terminology and provide a final opportunity for institutional accumulation before the next leg up. A decisive break above $125,000 would confirm the end of the consolidation phase. October 2025: Renewed momentum pushing Bitcoin toward the $132,000-$140,000 range, potentially coinciding with seasonal strength typically observed in Q4. This phase could see increased institutional participation as year-end positioning begins, with volume expansion confirming the strength of the move. November-December 2025: Final wave extension potentially reaching the $145,000-$160,000 range, representing a 20-30% appreciation from current all-time high levels. This phase may exhibit increased volatility and could be followed by a more substantial correction as the extended fifth wave completes. Key Levels to Monitor Support Zones: Primary: $115,000-$117,000 (must hold for bullish scenario) Secondary: $108,000-$110,000 (previous resistance turned support) Tertiary: $100,000-$102,000 (psychological and technical support) Resistance Zones: Immediate: $123,200-$125,000 (all-time high region) Target 1: $132,000-$135,000 (127.2% Fibonacci extension) Target 2: $145,000-$150,000 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) Target 3: $160,000+ (200% Fibonacci extension) The Technical Case for New Highs Despite Bitcoin already achieving unprecedented price levels in July, multiple technical frameworks suggest the potential for continued appreciation: Historical Precedent: Previous bull cycles have shown Bitcoin capable of extending significantly beyond initial all-time highs before cycle completion Institutional Adoption: On-chain metrics indicate continued accumulation by large holders despite elevated prices, with exchange outflows remaining positive Technical Structure: The current consolidation pattern resembles re-accumulation rather than distribution, suggesting the market is preparing for another leg higher Momentum Characteristics: Current momentum readings have reset from overbought conditions without breaking the underlying trend structure Strategic Considerations With Bitcoin having already achieved a new all-time high at $123,218 in July, strategic approaches might include: Maintaining core positions while implementing trailing stop strategies Adding to positions during retests of key support levels ($115,000-$117,000) Considering partial profit-taking at key Fibonacci extension levels Remaining vigilant for signs of distribution patterns that may emerge at higher levels Conclusion: The Path to $160,000 The weight of technical evidence suggests Bitcoin has entered a new paradigm of price discovery following its break to all-time highs in July 2025. While the path may include periods of consolidation and volatility, the underlying trend remains firmly bullish with multiple technical frameworks projecting targets in the $145,000-$160,000 range by year-end 2025. The current consolidation phase represents a healthy reset of momentum conditions rather than a trend reversal, creating an ideal technical foundation for Bitcoin's next major advance. With institutional adoption continuing to grow and technical indicators suggesting ample room for further appreciation, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to achieve new record highs in the coming months.
Long
by PHANT0M
EURGBP Bullish Setup Analysis – MMC + Volume Absorption + TargetIn today's EUR/GBP 30-minute chart, we can clearly observe a well-structured Market Maker Cycle (MMC) in play, accompanied by Smart Money concepts such as volume absorption, minor BOS (Break of Structure), and reversal zone identification. Let’s walk through the technical story unfolding: 🧠 Step-by-Step Breakdown: 🟣 1. Reversal Zone & QFL (Quasimodo Failed Level) Formation The price made a sharp decline, which trapped retail sellers chasing the breakout to the downside. This drop landed into a key reversal zone — a price pocket where Smart Money often steps in for accumulation. The QFL structure is evident here, showing a previous demand zone break and then recovery — classic stop-loss hunting behavior followed by institutional positioning. This is often considered the “Spring” or “Manipulation” phase in Wyckoff or MMC theory. 🟩 2. Volume Absorption & Compression Phase After tapping into the reversal zone, price action entered a tight compression range, forming a wedge/triangle. During this phase, volume absorption is clearly visible — large players are absorbing selling pressure without letting price drop further. This is a signal of re-accumulation. Buyers are loading up while keeping the price suppressed to mislead retail traders. You’ve rightly labeled this phase as “Structure Mapping + Volume Absorption” — a textbook Smart Money behavior prior to breakout. 🔓 3. Minor Breaks of Structure (BOS) As price consolidates, we begin to see Minor BOS— subtle shifts in structure where previous highs are taken out. These BOS levels are confirmation that demand is outweighing supply. Once we break multiple minor highs, it shows that buyers are now in control — hinting at the transition from Accumulation → Expansion. 📈 4. Projected Next Reversal + Breakout Scenario The marked Next Reversal Zone above (around 0.8680–0.8695) is where we can expect the first true breakout and major expansion. If price enters this area with increased volume, it validates that Smart Money is pushing into the Markup Phase of the MMC. After the breakout, we could see price push toward 0.8710 and above. 📊 5. Market Maker Cycle (MMC) Summary What we’re seeing here is a full-scale MMC pattern unfolding: Manipulation (QFL trap ) → Accumulation (Volume absorption) → Structure Shift (Minor BOS) → Expansion (Reversal breakout) This is the kind of setup that offers high-probability entries for those who understand Smart Money dynamics and wait for confirmation. 🎯 Key Levels to Watch: Reversal Support Zone: 0.86450 – 0.86500 Breakout Target Zone: 0.86800 – 0.86950 Final Target (Swing): 0.87100+ 🧠 Final Thoughts: This EUR/GBP setup shows everything we love to see: Liquidity taken ✅ Structure forming ✅ Volume building ✅ BOS confirming ✅ Expansion pending 🔜 Be patient. Let Smart Money reveal their hand through price action and volume confirmation.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Bulls Steady Ahead of Key Earnings and Economic DataU.S. equities are holding steady in what has been a week of conflicting signals. President Trump’s aggressive stance on trade, including potential 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, has shaken market sentiment, but his public commitment to retain Jerome Powell as Fed Chair brought some temporary relief. That stability, at least for now, is helping underpin stock indices. Focus has now turned to corporate earnings, with key players like TSMC and Netflix reporting shortly. These names could set the tone for the broader Q2 earnings season. At the same time, traders are closely monitoring incoming U.S. data — including retail sales and jobless claims — to gauge the health of the consumer and labor market. The combination of strong earnings and resilient macro data could provide the momentum Technical Structure: • Resistance: 44,350 — a potential breakout point • Support: 44,000 and 43,800 • Pattern: The index is trading within a descending channel, but recent strength suggests a breakout may be developing. • Upside potential: If earnings and macro data support risk appetite, a breakout toward 44,800 becomes plausible. Takeaway: Sentiment remains fragile but stable. Traders should keep a close eye on both corporate results and macro data releases for direction cues.
CFI:US30
by FDGCapital
Yen Weakness Deepens as Dollar Strength ResurfacesThe Japanese Yen continues to struggle, extending its multi-session decline against the U.S. Dollar. This morning’s weakness followed disappointing Japanese trade data, with June’s surplus falling well short of expectations due to another sharp contraction in exports, particularly to China. This trend has renewed fears that Japan may be slipping into a technical recession, which has further undermined confidence in the Yen. Beyond trade numbers, Japan’s macro landscape is becoming increasingly fragile. Real wages have declined, inflation is cooling, and the Bank of Japan’s path to normalizing policy now appears more uncertain. Adding to the pressure, political risk is also rising ahead of the upcoming Upper House election, leaving markets without a clear direction from fiscal leadership. In contrast, the U.S. Dollar is enjoying a resurgence. Federal Reserve members, including Williams and Logan, hinted this week that rates could remain higher for longer, particularly as President Trump’s latest wave of tariffs adds to inflation concerns. The administration’s recent clarification that there are no plans to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also calmed investor nerves, restoring faith in policy stability. The result: increased demand for the dollar at the Yen’s expense. Technical Outlook: • Current price: Just below 148.60 resistance • Support: 147.90 and 147.50 • Breakout potential: A decisive move above 148.60 could open the door toward 149.60 and even test the psychological 150.00 mark—last seen in March. • Indicators: Price is supported by the 100-hour EMA with positive oscillator alignment. Momentum remains bullish unless support at 147.90 is breached. Takeaway: Expect continued volatility as the Yen reacts to domestic data while USD remains supported by Fed hawkishness and trade tensions.
Long
by FDGCapital
wall Street has set camp on Satoshi's backyard...Bitcoin didn’t just wake up and choose violence. It chose velocity. As BTC blasts through the six-figure ceiling and fiddles $120k with laser precision, everyone’s pointing to “the halving” like it’s some magical switch. But let's be real, Bitcoin bull runs don’t run on fairy dust and hope. They run on liquidity, macro dislocations, structural demand shifts, and a pinch of regulatory chaos. Here’s the nerdy breakdown of what’s really driving the Bitcoin Rocketship (and why this one’s different): 1. The Halving Effect (Not Just the Halving) Yes, the April 2024 halving slashed miner rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. But this time, the reflexivity is louder. Miners now have to sell less, and buyers (especially ETFs) have to beg for more. Miners = Reduced Sell Pressure. ETFs = Constant Buy Pressure. That’s a one-way order book squeeze. Simple math, but powerful dynamics. 2. ETF Flows: The "Spot" That Launched a Thousand Rallies When the SEC finally gave the green light to Bitcoin spot ETFs, TradFi didn’t walk in—they stormed in. Think BlackRock, Fidelity, and friends becoming daily buyers. It's not retail FOMO anymore, it's Wall Street with billions in dry powder doing dollar-cost averaging with institutional consistency. 🧠 Nerd Note: The top 5 U.S. spot ETFs alone are now hoarding more BTC than MicroStrategy. 3. Dollar Liquidity is Leaking Again Despite Fed jawboning, real rates are still under pressure and global liquidity is quietly creeping back. Look at the TGA drawdowns, reverse repo usage, and China’s stealth QE. Bitcoin, being the apex predator of liquidity, smells it from a mile away. “In a world flooded with fiat, Bitcoin doesn’t float. It flies.” 4. Sovereigns Are Quietly Watching El Salvador lit the match. Now, Argentina, Turkey, and even Gulf countries are tiptoeing toward a Bitcoin pivot, hedging USD exposure without broadcasting it to CNN. Central banks don’t need to love BTC to stack it. They just need to fear the dollar system enough. 5. Scarcity Narrative Goes 3D With 99% of BTC supply already mined and over 70% HODLed for over 6 months, every new buyer is bidding for a smaller slice of the pie. ETFs and institutions are trying to drink from a faucet that only drips. This is not a market with elastic supply. This is financial physics with a scarcity twist. 6. Market Microstructure is Fragile AF Order books are thin. Real liquidity is fragmented. And the sell-side has PTSD from getting blown out at $70k. This creates a “skateboard-on-a-freeway” scenario, when a few billion in inflows hit, prices don’t just rise. They gap. Nerdy Bonus: The Memecoin Effect (No, Really) The memecoin mania on Solana, Base, and Ethereum has been injecting dopamine into degens—and their profits are increasingly flowing into the OG digital gold. It’s the 2021 cycle all over again, just with more liquidity bridges and fewer inhibitions. Nerdy Insight: The Bull Run Has Layers What’s driving BTC to $120,000 isn’t a single headline. It’s a stacked convergence of macro, structure, psychology, and coded scarcity. Bitcoin isn’t “going up” just because of hope or halving hype. It’s going up because it’s the cleanest asset in a dirty system, and now both retail and institutions agree. Still shorting? That’s not “fading the crowd.” That’s fighting thermodynamics. Stay nerdy, stay sharp. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Crypto Week in the U.S. – Bitcoin SurgesCongressional Crypto Week: Bitcoin Hits All-Time Highs in a Decisive Week for the U.S. Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is back in global headlines after breaking above $123,203 this Tuesday, setting a new all-time high in the same week. So far in July, the leading cryptocurrency has surged 17%, fueled by a combination of institutional inflows, political momentum, and evolving regulation. This week, Washington is hosting “Crypto Week,” a key event that may define the legal and financial future of digital assets in the United States. At the same time, institutional backing shows no signs of slowing down—Bitcoin ETFs continue to set records for net inflows, particularly BlackRock’s IBIT, now managing over $85 billion in assets. ETFs, Trump, and Regulation: All Roads Lead to Crypto BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, attracted $729 million in net inflows last week alone, setting a historic milestone by becoming the fastest ETF ever to reach $80 billion in assets under management—just 374 days, compared to over 1,800 days for the previous record held by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The growing institutional interest—with over 265 funds and entities now actively investing in BTC—not only validates the asset class but also tightens supply: BlackRock reportedly acquired an average of more than 860 bitcoins per day last week. This persistent demand is directly contributing to the price momentum. A Legal Framework in Progress Three major bills are on the Congressional agenda this week: The Genius Act: Aims to regulate stablecoins and has already passed the Senate with bipartisan support. The Clarity Act: Seeks to define which cryptocurrencies qualify as securities or commodities, clarifying regulatory oversight. The Anti-CBDC Act: Proposes restricting the government’s ability to issue an official digital currency, favoring decentralized ecosystems. This regulatory push is seen by the market as a sign of institutional consolidation in the crypto space, paralleling the already advanced European MiCA framework. Technical Analysis of BTCUSD On the daily chart, Bitcoin broke decisively above the previous ceiling at $112,000 on July 12 and has since been validating a consolidation pattern near the $120,000 level—forming a bullish pennant on the 1-hour chart. The RSI remains overbought at 64.92%, but with no current signs of bearish divergence. The next technical target lies in the $130,000–$135,000 zone, while the nearest support is found at $118,000. A daily close below that level could trigger a technical correction toward $108,000–$109,000, marking the base of the current impulse. The point of control sits far lower at $85,195, although the current move appears to be unfolding within the third of three key volume profile levels. The MACD continues to support price expansion, though trading volume appears to be declining. Delta level indicators suggest strong resistance near current price highs, meaning another push may be needed—possibly triggered by continued regulatory momentum. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
ACTIVTRADES:BTCUSDLong
by ActivTrades
Gold Just Flipped Is the Drop Coming?🚨 Gold Market Update – Are You Ready? 🚨 Yesterday, the gold market swept the liquidity from the previous days taking out stop orders and clearing out weak positions. After the sweep, price closed lower, showing clear signs of weakness. 📉 But that’s not all... In the process, it also broke through a key bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) an area where buyers had previously shown strength. That FVG is now inverted, meaning it could act as a strong resistance level going forward. With this shift in structure, there's a real possibility that gold could drop further, potentially hunting the liquidity resting near previous lows. The market might be gearing up for a deeper move. 🔥 So the question is: Are YOU ready for the next leg down? 📌 As always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) This is not financial advice just reading the tape.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Peter_Wade
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 17, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is edging back toward the 1.16 – 1.17 range highs after headlines suggesting former U.S. president Donald Trump might try to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) print pressured the dollar. Political noise around the Fed’s independence, coupled with a cooling inflation pulse, has pushed market pricing toward a longer policy pause; the pair is hovering near 1.16250 at the time of writing. Fundamental support also stems from the upcoming 24 July ECB meeting. Governing-Council commentary reveals a split between hawks and would-be doves, yet consensus that euro-area inflation remains above target makes an aggressive rate cut unlikely for now. Meanwhile, subdued U.S. Treasury yields—futures price a 95 % probability of no change this month and only 50 bp of total easing over 12 months—help narrow the U.S.–German 10-year spread to about 150 bp. Against a backdrop of ongoing U.S. trade tensions and steady inflows into euro-area assets, that narrower spread leaves room for EURUSD to grind toward the 1.1680 target if sentiment stays risk-positive. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.16250, SL 1.15950, TP 1.16800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
BONKUSDT: Bullish Setup Brewing! Are You In?#BONK is flashing strong bullish signals on the 1D timeframe: Double Bottom Pattern – A textbook reversal signal Break & Retest of Key Resistance – Now acting as solid support Price at CMP (Current Market Price) – In the ideal buy zone This confluence of signals suggests momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls. If volume kicks in, we could see a sharp breakout toward the next resistance levels. Trade Plan: Entry: CMP SL: 0.00000886 Target 1: 0.00002607 Target 2: 0.00003989 Always use proper risk management! What’s your view on #BONK? Bullish or Bearish? Drop your thoughts in the comments and let's discuss! Don’t forget to like and follow for more setups! #BONK #Crypto #Altcoins #TechnicalAnalysis #Breakout #DoubleBottom #TradingView
Long
by mudusir
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