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Fundamental Analysis

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 14 - 18 JulyMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: Inflation Rate in Canada, US, and UK, US PPI, Earnings Reports In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets. 👉 Key topics covered in this episode: — Inflation Rate in Canada — US Inflation Rate — UK Inflation Rate — US Producer Price Index — Corporate Earnings Statements Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
DXY Weekly Update — July 14, 2025⌛ Timeframe: . 📆 Analysis Date: July 14, 2025 . 🎯 Weekly Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral (Potential for retracement or reversal) 🔎 Market Overview: ⬇️ Persistent USD Weakness: DXY has dropped nearly 10% YTD, marking the steepest half-year decline since 1986. 📉 Rate Cut Expectations: Markets are pricing in a potential 75bps rate cut by the Fed in H2 2025, pushing yields and the dollar lower. 📦 Trade War Fears: Renewed tariff risks (targeting EU, Japan, Mexico, South Korea) aren't boosting demand for USD — a signal of lost safe-haven appeal. ⚖️ Central Bank Diversification: Global reserve managers are rotating into gold and away from USD, weakening long-term structural demand. 🌀 Sentiment & Risk Appetite: 💸 Liquidity Demand is Soft: DXY is retesting a 4H fair value gap (97.10–97.30), suggesting potential short-term consolidation or correction. 🌍 Risk-On Mood Returns: According to Goldman Sachs, the USD is trading more like a "risk asset" than a haven, aligning with rising equity appetite. 📉 Technical Landscape: 🟠 4H Structure: If DXY breaks below 97.00, next support lies at 96.37, followed by 95.50–96.00. Consolidation expected if price remains within the FVG. 🔻 Key Resistance: 97.70–98.20 zone. A break above this area could change the tone to bullish. 📌 Summary: 🔷 Fundamentals show long-term dollar weakening (rates, trade tension, reserve shifts) 🔷 Sentiment aligns with risk-on appetite and reduced USD demand 🔷 Technicals at critical level; break below 97.00 opens room for correction, break above 97.70 shifts bias bullish . . . . 🟠 Bias: Bearish to Neutral Watch Levels: 97.00 support, 97.70–98.20 resistance ⚠️ Note: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always apply risk management. ✅ If you like this analysis, don't forget to like 👍, follow 🧠, and share your thoughts below 💬!
TVC:DXYShort
by Apollo_Capital
XAUUSD - Gold Awaits Tariff News?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the hourly chart and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. We remain bullish on the commodity and can expect to see $3,400. A correction towards the demand zones would provide us with a better risk-reward buying opportunity. Gold markets experienced significant volatility this past week, largely driven by global trade developments and speculation over future Federal Reserve actions. Although gold posted a positive weekly performance, it remained confined within its recent trading range and continued to trade cautiously. Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, noted, “Gold saw declines on Monday and Tuesday, but a three-day rally brought the week to a positive close. It appears that the announcement of new U.S. tariffs played a major role in this rebound. However, it remains uncertain whether the consolidation phase following the historic high near $3,500 has concluded.” Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, said that since the passage of the “Big, Beautiful Bill” last week, markets have split into two opposing camps. “The optimists are enthusiastically buying equities, while the pessimists are flocking to precious metals. The bulls believe the budget deficit could stimulate growth, but the bears are concerned about the long-term burden of repaying it.” He continued: “This divide is evident across the market. Bearish capital is flowing into bitcoin, silver, and gold. While retail traders are largely focused on bitcoin and silver, gold remains the preferred safe haven for central banks and global reserve managers. These institutions are likely observing Trump’s policies and the political landscape carefully before reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar and reallocating reserves toward gold.” He added, “Among retail traders, patience seems to have worn thin, and many are ready to enter the market aggressively.” Button also stated that the markets are no longer reacting seriously to Trump’s tariff rhetoric. “The reaction of the Canadian dollar after the 35% tariff announcement on Thursday clearly reflected this indifference. Even the Brazilian real barely moved despite facing unexpected tariffs. Now all eyes are on the potential tariffs on Europe—an announcement that could come at any moment and serve as a key test. Still, I expect the market will shrug it off. The only question is whether that indifference lasts an hour or even less.” Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank has issued a warning that financial markets may be underestimating the risk of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell being dismissed by Trump. According to Bloomberg, George Saravelos, the bank’s senior strategist, said that such a move could result in a 3–4% drop in the U.S. dollar and a 30–40 basis point surge in Treasury yields within a single day. He emphasized that removing Powell would be a significant blow to the Fed’s independence and would raise concerns about direct political interference in monetary policymaking. The market’s long-term response would depend on Trump’s nominee to replace Powell, how other Fed officials react, and the overall state of the economy. Deutsche Bank also warned that the U.S.’s weak external financing position could amplify market volatility well beyond the initial shock. Looking ahead to next week, investors will be closely watching developments around trade tariffs, but special attention will also be paid to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. According to the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), prices in the manufacturing sector have slightly accelerated, while price components in the non-manufacturing sector have dropped notably. Since manufacturing only accounts for 10% of U.S.GDP, the risks to CPI appear skewed to the downside. A slowdown in inflation may lead some market participants to reassess the likelihood of a July rate cut—potentially halting the recent upward momentum of the U.S. dollar. On Wednesday, June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released, followed by June retail sales figures on Thursday. Additionally, Friday will see the preliminary results of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey for July. This report is closely watched for its one-year inflation expectations. The annual rate surged to 6.6% in May before dropping to 5% in June. If this downward trend continues, it could reinforce the view that inflation risks are easing, potentially leading to a modest pullback in the dollar.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
BTCI – setting up for a breakout?What is CBOE:BTCI ? BTCI is the NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF – a covered-call ETF designed to provide exposure to Bitcoin price trends with monthly income. The fund uses options strategies to generate consistent yields while holding Bitcoin futures and related instruments. 💰 Annual dividend yield: approx. 18%, paid monthly 📆 Ideal for income-focused investors who still want crypto exposure without direct volatility. CBOE:BTCI Current price: $59.64 Strong volume is building up (green arrow), and the stochastic oscillator shows bullish momentum returning. Price is consolidating just under the resistance at $60.90–61.75, with a potential upside of +13.2%, targeting the $67.09 zone. 📈 If volume holds and breaks above $61.75, the move toward the target becomes likely. 🟩 Key support: $58.07 / $55.75
CBOE:BTCILong
by ALVO13_official
Everybody and their mother is waiting for another bigger XRP DIPEveryone and their mother is waiting for an XRP dip. The biggest liquidation wave of all time happened last week. But nothing is enough for them and they assume that the market will be so kind as to offer another place to buy and win. The train has already left and the journey is just beginning. I can't give exact dates but my graph follows the historical price development of XRP in 2017-2018 when it rose explosively. A similar graph adjusted to today's prices could roughly raise XRP 0.5$->3$->10$->100$ which could be the peak prices of this bull run in about a year. nfa dyor ...
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by sixofthedecember
1
Overview: Alpha Data PJSC (ALPHADATA, ADX)Sector: IT & Digital Solutions | Location: UAE 🔹 New to the stock market — but not to the business ADX:ALPHADATA is one of the largest IT companies in the UAE. It went public very recently — in May 2025 — but has been operating for over 40 years (founded in 1981). The company provides solutions in digital transformation, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and IT services. What makes it especially attractive is its client base, which includes some of the UAE’s most prominent organizations: • ASX:ADNOC , ADX:TAQA , ADX:EAND , Emirates, Etihad, DP World, Dubai Police, ADX:FAB • These names represent the core of the UAE’s economy and government sector — large, reliable, and financially stable partners. The digital and cybersecurity sector continues to grow rapidly, particularly in GCC countries where government-led digital transformation is accelerating. This makes Alpha Data’s business both relevant and resilient in today’s geopolitical and technological climate. 📉 Technical analysis: is the entry point near? The chart shows that after the IPO, the price reached the 1.90–1.95 AED zone before undergoing a correction. Currently, the price is holding around 1.78–1.80 AED, with the main volume area (POC) located at 1.61 AED — a strong support level. Indicators suggest: • RSI and Stoch RSI are in the oversold zone — signaling a potential reversal. • The Volume Profile confirms that the price is still above key volume areas. 🟩 Bullish scenario: • Holding above 1.70–1.75 AED → bounce toward the 1.90–1.95 zone is possible. • A breakout above this range could open the way toward 2.00+. 🟥 Bearish scenario: • A breakdown below 1.70 AED could lead to a retest of 1.61 AED, which may offer another long opportunity. ✳️ Why I’m interested in this stock: • ✅ Recent IPO — the market is still forming its long-term view. • ✅ Strong sector (IT, cybersecurity, digital transformation). • ✅ Top-tier clients — from ADNOC to Etisalat. • ✅ Rare dividend story: the company has already announced plans to pay dividends twice a year, with an expected yield of 8–9% (based on the IPO price). Of course, the amount depends on profitability, but the fact itself is unusual for a tech company in this region.
ADX:ALPHADATALong
by ALVO13_official
MAP MY INDIAC.E. Info Systems Ltd., operating under the brand MapmyIndia, is a leading geospatial SaaS and digital mapping company offering AI-powered mobility platforms, navigation tools, and automotive-grade telematics solutions. It serves marquee clients in automotive, logistics, government, and e-commerce verticals. The stock is currently trading at ₹1,804.40 and is forming a base post-correction, with early signs of trend reemergence supported by volume and Fibonacci alignment. C.E. Info Systems Ltd. – FY22–FY25 Snapshot Sales – ₹215 Cr → ₹264 Cr → ₹314 Cr → ₹360 Cr – Consistent growth driven by SaaS subscriptions and automotive partnerships Net Profit – ₹89.3 Cr → ₹103.5 Cr → ₹116.2 Cr → ₹129.4 Cr – Steady margin profile with scalable revenue mix Company Order Book – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong – Expanding pipeline in mobility platforms and GIS services Dividend Yield (%) – 0.00% → 0.00% → 0.00% → 0.00% – No payouts, focused on reinvestment Operating Performance – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong – SaaS leverage driving operating margins Equity Capital – ₹10.71 Cr (constant) – Lean and efficient capital structure Total Debt – ₹0 Cr (debt-free) – Conservative balance sheet Total Liabilities – ₹185 Cr → ₹192 Cr → ₹204 Cr → ₹217 Cr – Stable, aligned with business scale Fixed Assets – ₹62 Cr → ₹68 Cr → ₹72 Cr → ₹78 Cr – Light capex structure supporting software stack Latest Highlights FY25 net profit rose 11.4% YoY to ₹129.4 Cr; revenue increased 14.6% to ₹360 Cr EPS: ₹12.08 | EBITDA Margin: 31.2% | Net Margin: 35.94% Return on Equity: 25.28% | Return on Assets: 19.67% Promoter holding: 53.78% | Dividend Yield: 0.00% New deployments in EV navigation, autonomous mapping, and smart city platforms OEM integrations with leading automotive brands extending platform reach Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends Promoter holding remains healthy at 53.78%, with no dilution or pledging. Recent quarterly filings show marginal uptick in FII interest, while mutual fund holdings remained steady. Delivery volume trends suggest accumulation by small-cap institutional trackers and thematic tech-focused portfolios. Business Growth Verdict Yes, C.E. Info Systems is scaling sustainably with differentiated geospatial offerings Margins remain robust across product lines Zero debt and high ROE underscore financial discipline Asset-light model supports scalable growth with minimal capex needs Company Guidance Management expects continued double-digit revenue growth in FY26, driven by expansion in automotive-grade maps, IoT platforms, and SaaS contracts. Profit margins are projected to stay above 30%. Final Investment Verdict C.E. Info Systems Ltd. offers a unique play in India’s emerging deep-tech and mobility infrastructure ecosystem. With strong profitability metrics, zero debt, and expanding adoption across automotive and government platforms, the company is positioned for long-term value creation. Despite modest topline scale, its consistent margin profile and differentiated IP stack make it suitable for staggered accumulation by investors seeking niche tech exposure with high capital efficiency.
NSE:MAPMYINDIALong
by TechnicalAnalystSucrit
S&P500 Slips Ahead of CPI & Earnings SeasonEquities began the week under pressure, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.5%, slipping below the 6,230-resistance area. Although the Fed minutes released last week indicate that most members are open to cutting rates this year, inflation data and second-quarter earnings could change that trajectory. Upcoming Events to Watch: • CPI Release (Tuesday 14:30 SAST): A cooler-than-expected print would support a breakout in risk assets. A hot reading could shift expectations toward policy tightening, weighing on equities. • Q2 Earnings Season: Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will report this week. Strong earnings may cushion the market, while any weakness could exacerbate volatility. S&P500 Technical View: • Immediate Resistance: 6,230 • Potential Upside: A cooler CPI could see the index rally toward 6,290. • Support Levels: Should inflation surprise to the upside, the index may slide to 6,190, or even 6,150 in extended selling.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by FDGCapital
Gold Eyes CPI as Tariffs BiteGold (XAU/USD) continues to push higher, recently hitting $3,360. The latest catalyst: escalating trade tensions, as President Trump imposes a fresh round of 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods. This is boosting safe-haven demand and weighing on the dollar, albeit modestly. Still, with the Federal Reserve signalling a cautious stance on rate cuts, gold may need an additional spark to clear long-term resistance. Chart Setup: • Current Resistance: Gold is trading just below $3,365, a multi-session ceiling. • Indicators: The RSI remains above 50, reflecting bullish momentum. • Breakout Potential: A strong CPI print tomorrow could challenge this uptrend. But if CPI cools, gold could test the $3,400 psychological barrier. • Pullback Risk: A drop below $3,350 (23.6% Fibonacci) could bring us back to the $3,340–$3,320 support zone. Markets are on edge ahead of Tuesday's U.S. CPI report, which may significantly influence inflation expectations, Fed policy, and safe-haven demand.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by FDGCapital
$MULTIVERSE Multiverse over 60% retracement from All time HighNSENG:MULTIVERSE Multiverse Mining & Exploration Plc focuses on quarrying solid minerals (granite, zinc, tin, tantalite, barite, columbite, gold, etc.) in Nigeria, with operations in Ogun and Nasarawa State. Currently NSENG:MULTIVERSE has lost over 60% of its value from an all time high of 24.50/share and is in consolidation. Current price: 9.85naira/share Low risk Buy zone levels is between 6.8naira - 10naira/share Expecting #Multiverse to retest previous resistances at 17naira/share and 24naira/share if price attempts a recovery. 📈 Key Levels Breakout above ₦10.20 Breakout zone – key resistance turning into support if broken ₦17.1 TP1 – next major resistance (target) ₦24.5 TP2 – higher resistance / bull target Invalidation of this idea is a weekly close under 6.8naira/share
NSENG:MULTIVERSELong
by Ifiok-Trades
5
NAS100 - Stock market awaits inflation!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. Maintaining the ascending channel and confirming it after breaking the downtrend line will lead to the continuation of the Nasdaq's upward path to higher targets (23000), but in case of no increase and channel failure, one can look for selling positions up to the target of 22500. Last week, the U.S.dollar demonstrated strong performance against major global currencies, despite having experienced some weakness since April 2, when President Donald Trump announced retaliatory tariffs against key U.S. trading partners. However, these tariffs were ultimately postponed, and only a baseline 10% tariff was maintained. The 90-day deadline for implementing these tariffs, originally set to expire on Wednesday, has now been extended to August 1. Nevertheless, Trump surprised the markets this week by announcing a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, threatening a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, and implementing lower tariffs for other partners. These developments triggered a shift of capital toward the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, boosting its strength. This marks a notable shift in how the dollar is reacting to tariff tensions. In April, fears of an economic slowdown weighed on the greenback, but now it is gaining traction as a refuge in times of uncertainty, particularly as inflation risks mount—contributing to choppy moves in U.S. equity markets. As is customary, the earnings season will kick off with reports from major banks and financial institutions. On Tuesday, JPMorgan is set to release its financial results, opening the floodgates for a wave of earnings reports. The image referenced lists several other companies, many of which are market heavyweights. Following a relatively quiet week due to Independence Day holidays and a lack of major economic data, markets are now gearing up for a steady stream of reports in the coming days. Tuesday will bring the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June along with the Empire State manufacturing survey. On Wednesday, the spotlight will shift to the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the same month. Then, on Thursday, traders will focus on June’s retail sales report, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey, and the weekly jobless claims figures. The week will conclude with two additional reports on Friday: the June housing starts data and the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. June’s CPI report is expected to reflect an uptick in inflation, potentially driven by Trump’s tariff policies. Some analysts believe the tariffs will have an “undeniable” impact on prices, though others remain uncertain. Despite concerns from both experts and consumers that businesses might pass tariff costs on to buyers, inflation has so far remained relatively moderate this year. The effects of Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign on hard economic data have not yet been clearly reflected—but that may be about to change. According to Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts, as cited by Wells Fargo Securities, the CPI is expected to show a 2.7% year-over-year increase in June—up from 2.4% the previous month. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to have risen 3% over the same period, compared to a prior gain of 2.8%. If these numbers come in as expected, it could support the forecasts of analysts who have warned that the costs of Trump’s heavy import tariffs would eventually show up on price tags, as manufacturers, importers, and retailers pass along the burden through the supply chain. Since taking office, Trump has imposed a wide array of tariffs, including a 10% levy on most imports, a 25% duty on foreign automobiles, and tariffs exceeding 50% on Chinese products.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
DAX Stock Index Declines Amid Trump Tariff ThreatDAX Stock Index Declines Amid Trump Tariff Threat The German stock index DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini at FXOpen) is showing bearish momentum at the start of the week. This may be driven by a combination of factors, the most significant of which is the threat of tariffs on Europe from the United States. According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump has announced a 30% tariff on most goods from the EU, set to come into effect next month. However, the decision is not yet final. Analysts caution against premature panic, suggesting that negotiations could still result in a trade agreement — nonetheless, the chart reflects a sense of unease among investors. Technical Analysis of the DAX 40 Chart The price surge in July above the previous all-time high near the 24,500 level appears to be a false bullish breakout — a sign of market weakness. Buyers may hope that the market will find support at the former resistance line (marked in red), drawn through the local highs of June. However, if news surrounding the US–EU negotiations turns negative, the DAX 40 index could fall towards the 23,650–23,750 support area, which is reinforced by the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:GDAXIM
by FXOpen
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, Unrivaled in the Market!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. Bitcoin’s current upward momentum has the potential to reach the target of $130,000. If it corrects, Bitcoin buying opportunities can be sought from the specified demand zones. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand area. In recent days, Bitcoin has managed to set a new historical high by crossing the $118,000 level; a jump that followed the strong accumulation of institutional capital, the upward trend of spot ETFs and the remarkable consolidation of such indices. This growth is not only the result of technical conditions or short-term market excitement, but is a clear reflection of the structural maturity of the Bitcoin ecosystem in the second half of 2025. A careful and comprehensive examination of the fundamental parameters shows that Bitcoin is moving differently than in the past: slower, but with much stronger support. On the other hand, more than $205 million in Bitcoin short selling positions have been liquidated following the jump in the price of Bitcoin and its crossing the $122,000 level. First, the flow of investment from Bitcoin spot ETFs has broken records over the past week. In one day, more than $1.18 billion entered these funds, and the total annual inflow of these financial instruments has reached more than $51 billion. This is while ETFs such as IBIT (managed by BlackRock) and FBTC (managed by Fidelity) are attracting hundreds of Bitcoins daily, without causing any negative divergence in price indices. This phenomenon clearly shows that the participation of institutional investors through regulated channels is not only stable, but also accelerating. Along with this flow of capital, the parameters of the chain also paint a picture of a market with a balance of supply and demand. The MVRV ratio, an indicator for measuring market profitability, fluctuates between 2.2 and 2.34, meaning that the market is in a reasonably profitable state, but is still some way from the warning zone of profit saturation. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) are also continuing to accumulate. Long-term wallet holdings have reached a record high of 14.7 million BTC, representing nearly 70% of the total supply. In the last quarter alone, more than 13,000 BTC have been added to this group’s reserves. On the other hand, the SOPR indicator, which measures realized profit ratio, shows that profit-taking is taking place at a gentle slope in the market, away from heavy selling pressure. This logical trend of profit-taking is a testament to mature investor behavior. Bitcoin flows to exchanges are also at very low levels; Bitcoin held on exchanges now account for just 1.25% of the total supply—the lowest level in over a decade. This significant reduction in potential selling pressure has kept Bitcoin’s price stable in the face of short-term volatility. Behaviorally, the market is also showing signs of maturation. The number of daily active addresses has remained stable, but unlike during the buying frenzy, we are no longer seeing retail traders rushing into exchanges or mass wallet outflows. In other words, on-chain activity has stabilized, similar to the behavior of traditional mature markets—markets driven by data and structure, not emotion. From a macro perspective, the outlook for Bitcoin in the medium term is also positive. Many analysts and institutions, including Global X ETFs, see Bitcoin’s growth to $200,000 within the next 12 months as achievable. Technical analysis from some sources has also outlined the $140,000 range as the next price target in the next 100 days, provided that the VIX volatility index remains low and macroeconomic data maintains its current trajectory. However, a more conservative scenario sees a price consolidation in the $95,000-$100,000 range if geopolitical pressures increase or ETF inflows weaken. Overall, Bitcoin is moving ahead in the summer of 2025 not only on the back of crypto market excitement, but also on the back of strong fundamentals and structured institutional capital inflows. Accumulation by long-term holders, a steady decline in supply on exchanges, a reasonable profit-taking balance, and a formal investment structure via ETFs have all combined to bring the market to a stable state and ready for further increases. If this trend holds, levels of $125,000-$140,000 in the short term, and a range of $180,000-$200,000 by the end of the year, are not far off! On the other hand, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) managed to record the fastest growth in history among all ETFs, surpassing $80 billion in assets in just 374 days! For comparison, it should be noted that the S&P500 Index ETF needed about 5 times this time! BlackRock now holds about 706,000 Bitcoins (equivalent to 56% of the total ETF share).
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Gold breaks trendline towards 3390, Uptrend resumes✏️ OANDA:XAUUSD The price increase will continue today and will be even stronger. After breaking the trendline, gold has strong support. SELL strategies are only considered to find short-term reaction points waiting for the next trends. Gold has confirmed the uptrend is back, heading to 3390 today. 📉 Key Levels Support 3330-3314 Resistance 3345-3362-3388 Sell trigger: rejection from 3345 with bearish confirmation Sell zone: 3362–3387 (Strong resistance) BUY trigger: 3330-3314 support with bounce confirmation Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
8
Deep Dive Part III – The Next BIG Whale Play UnfoldsDeep Dive Part III – The Next BIG Whale Play Unfolds 📍In Parts I & II of this Deep Dive, we broke down the psychology of whale behavior — from “Buy the Rumors, Sell the News” to the critical breakout zones that echoed historical patterns. 🐋 Back then, we spotted the whales' playbook early. The strategy was simple: Buy the Rumors – Sell the News. 🧠 But now, the script has changed. “The trap is where you’re most bored… 🌴📵 Their exit — on your liquidity — comes when you’re least ready. 💰🏄‍♂️💼” Let’s break this moment down into what’s really unfolding. We are officially entering the next stage of the cycle — not just in price, but in psychology. This is no longer just about charts. This is about human behavior on autopilot. Here’s what I see happening right now — broken into three truths: 1️⃣ People Are On Holiday 🌞 From my community to the broader market, the energy is low. People are either sunbathing on a beach or mentally checked out. The focus is not there. The reflex to take action is dulled. 📉 The trap is where you’re most bored… 🌴📵 💰 Their exit — on your liquidity — comes when you’re least ready. 🏄‍♂️💼🚀 We’re seeing it unfold now: 1. Set the Bear Trap 2. Trigger the FOMO (will be down the road, yes) 3. Exit on Liquidity (the closing act of the play) 🕶️ But when everyone is away or asleep, that’s when the trap is laid. It’s during these quiet, lazy days that the big moves get built. 2️⃣ This is a Disbelief Rally 🎢 The market trained everyone with a rhythm: pump ➝ dump, pump ➝ dump, pump ➝ dump… So what happens now? People don’t trust the breakout. They’re frozen. “We’ll dump again,” they say. Except… what if this time, we don’t? That disbelief becomes fuel. It becomes hesitation — and hesitation becomes missed opportunity. 3️⃣ Bears Are Shorting Into Strength 🧨 This is key. While retail is confused, the bears are pressing in hard. Their shorts are adding fuel to the pump they don’t see coming. That’s why I posted recently: “Shorting isn’t the problem. Being a psycho bear is.” It’s not about being bullish or bearish — It’s about timing , discipline , and narrative awareness . Whales love this moment. They lure in shorts, set the trap, then ignite the breakout straight into FOMO. 🧠 The Game: Set the Trap → Trigger the FOMO → Exit on Liquidity 💥 This is what you’re seeing on the chart. Not just price action — psychological choreography. 🕰️ In 2020–2021, we saw the exact same structure. Part I warned about early accumulation and baiting behavior. Part II showed how whales manipulated expectations with layered waves of doubt. Now in Part III — the explosion few are ready for. Zoom into the chart and it’s all there: The curve, the trap, the trigger… and yes — the Final Boss. 🎯 The Final Boss: 6.51T That’s the ultimate liquidity zone. If this cycle plays out, we’re headed toward it. “Sell the Rate Cuts” will be the new “Sell the News.” It’s not the headlines that matter — it’s who’s left holding the bag. 🔚 Final Thought The real exit — the one that traps most of retail — will come not when you’re euphoric, but when you’re still saying: “Surely we must dump now…” So stay sharp. Trade the chart — but don’t forget to read the behavior. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Part1: Part2:https://www.tradingview.website/chart/idea/VgMBPsp3/ The Bear Trap: Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by FX_Professor
6
Chili's: Still Cheap, Still Ignored, Still A Strong BuyCasual dining has been in limbo post-pandemic—too pricey for impulse meals, not fancy enough to feel special. But Brinker International (EAT), parent of Chili’s and Maggiano’s, is proving there's still a winning formula if you get the execution right. 🛠️ Operational Overhaul at Chili’s Chili’s has quietly transformed itself. A deep operational review led to smarter kitchen processes and a slimmed-down menu. These changes boosted both food quality and efficiency. By simplifying things like wing sauces and adding real-time kitchen tools, Chili’s improved service speed and cut costs—freeing up staff to focus on core offerings like burgers and margaritas. As management put it: "Marketing brings guests in, operations bring them back." 📣 Marketing That Works Chili’s is also nailing the branding. Viral TikToks and a more relaxed, value-focused message have resonated with consumers—both old fans and new. Unlike competitors chasing trends or discounts, Chili’s has leaned into what it does best: an affordable, comfortable dining experience. The strategy is working. Traffic is up, and customers are coming back—not just for the hype, but for the value. 📊 Financials and Growth Potential Analysts expect revenue growth of 21%, 5%, and 5.5% over the next three years, with EPS potentially growing more than 11% annually. However, we believe these estimates undervalue Chili’s long-term growth, especially as margins improve and brand momentum continues. At just 11x cash flow and a PEG ratio of 0.47, EAT is significantly cheaper than peers like Darden (2.1) and Shake Shack (3.8). That discount suggests the market hasn’t fully priced in Brinker’s turnaround. ⚠️ Risks to Watch Slowing improvements: Much of the "low-hanging fruit" in operations may already be picked, so future gains could taper off. Debt load: With $430M in long-term debt, a business slowdown could raise financial pressure, despite recent earnings strength. ✅ Bottom Line: Strong Buy Chili’s turnaround is more than a viral blip—it’s a smart reinvention. Combined with solid execution at Maggiano’s, Brinker International is proving that casual dining can still thrive. With strong fundamentals, smart leadership, and a discounted valuation, EAT stock looks like a compelling 'Strong Buy' for the next 12 months.
NYSE:EATLong
by PropNotes
1
Spotify's Valuation Is Red-Lining (Rating Downgrade)📈 Spotify's Remarkable Comeback Spotify NYSE:SPOT has transformed itself from a money-losing audio platform into a disciplined, profit-generating tech firm. Through smarter podcast investments, layoffs, and better monetization strategies, the company recently swung from red ink to positive free cash flow and strong earnings — a major shift for long-frustrated shareholders. This operational turnaround helped fuel a massive rally: Spotify shares have surged nearly 140% since May 2024. 💵 Financials Look Strong... for Now Revenue jumped from $15 billion to $17.4 billion over the past year — a 16% increase. Spotify also improved gross margins from 25% to 31.6%, while net margins turned positive at 7%. Bottom-line earnings exploded from a $119 million loss to $1.25 billion in profit. These gains came from several smart moves: - Reduced payouts to creators (from 75% to 70%) - AI-generated content, like white noise playlists, cutting royalty costs - Ad growth in podcasts and better ad tech - Higher efficiency in infrastructure and operations Analysts now expect Spotify’s earnings to grow another 74% this year, 45% in 2026, and 30% in 2027. 💰 But Valuation Is Stretched Despite the impressive financial performance, Spotify's stock appears overheated. It now trades at: 117x trailing earnings 71x forward earnings 37x estimated 2027 earnings These multiples are far above historical norms — and could spell trouble if growth slows even slightly. The company is running out of levers to improve margins further, and rising operational costs may start to weigh on profits. Spotify also trades at its highest-ever price-to-sales ratio, indicating elevated investor expectations. If the company underdelivers, the stock could face a significant correction. ⚖️ Our Take: Time to Hold, Not Buy We still believe in Spotify's long-term story. Its subscription model, improving margins, and global scale offer compelling advantages. But after this big run-up, the stock no longer offers favorable risk-reward. We’re downgrading from "Strong Buy" to "Hold", suggesting investors with gains may want to trim positions and wait for a more attractive entry point. 📌 Bottom Line: Spotify has executed well — but the stock price now reflects near-perfect performance. A pause, or pullback, wouldn’t surprise us.
NYSE:SPOT
by PropNotes
7
Report - 10 jully, 2025Germany Pushes European Rearmament — Supply Chain Call to Action Key Developments German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius demands the defense industry “stop complaining and deliver,” pushing for accelerated production. Berlin plans to raise annual defense spending to €162 billion by 2029 (+70% vs. current), the largest defense expansion since WWII. Focus on munitions, drones, tanks, submarines, fighter jets. Long-term contracts with annual purchase obligations to provide production certainty and encourage new capacity. Meeting with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to secure US support and coordinate Patriot missile supply (Germany has only 6 left). Despite Ukraine’s renewed requests, Germany will not send Taurus long-range missiles. Strategic Analysis Germany’s pivot (the "Zeitenwende") signals a historic shift toward a leadership role in European defense, stepping up as US support for continental security wanes. The move reshapes Europe's industrial base and procurement priorities, creating a structural, multiyear demand boom in defense production. This strategic acceleration responds to: Russia's aggression and rapid advances in Ukraine. A fragmented EU defense industry needing standardization and scale. The risk that delays in rearmament could embolden adversaries. Market & Investment Implications Bullish outlook for European defense primes: Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, KMW, and MBDA. Strong orders pipeline supports supplier valuations and capital investments. Defense-focused ETFs and long-cycle industrial funds gain attractiveness. Potential execution risks: capacity bottlenecks and regulatory procurement hurdles. North Korea’s Unconditional Support to Russia — New Security Axis Key Developments Kim Jong Un pledges "unconditional support" for Russia’s Ukraine war effort during Lavrov’s visit. North Korea has reportedly sent 13,000 troops and 12 million artillery shells since October, with plans for more troops this summer. Joint military and economic ties deepening: possible new infrastructure projects and North Korean goods in Russian markets. Strategic Analysis The explicit military alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang cements a new anti-Western axis in Northeast Asia. North Korean boots on the ground in Ukraine (even indirectly) create significant escalation risks and could legitimize wider allied responses. Market & Security Implications Increases global defense spending momentum, particularly in missile defense and artillery systems. Heightens regional security risk premium in Northeast Asia, reinforcing demand for US-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation. Potential new sanctions regimes targeting Russian and North Korean trade. EU to Intensify Foreign Subsidy Investigations Key Developments EU to expand probes into foreign-subsidized companies, particularly Chinese, using the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR). Target sectors: chemicals, pharmaceuticals, cars, batteries, and green tech. FSR empowers Brussels to block public procurement bids, M&A deals, and restrict single-market access. Strategic Analysis A clear industrial policy pivot: Brussels seeks to protect European value chains, local talent, and technological sovereignty. The EU is signaling it will emulate China’s own JV requirements to force knowledge transfer and local investment. Market & Corporate Implications Defensive boost for EU industrial and tech players — potential reshoring and local capacity expansion. Risks for Chinese EV, solar, and battery players in Europe. New compliance costs and operational hurdles for multinationals with Chinese JV exposure. EU Temporarily Suspends Tariff Retaliation Against US Key Developments EU delays €21 billion in planned retaliatory tariffs on US exports following Trump’s 30% tariff threat. Negotiations ongoing; additional €72 billion of potential retaliatory measures being prepared. Germany’s finance minister stresses continued “serious talks,” warning of possible decisive countermeasures if negotiations fail. Strategic Analysis EU seeks to avoid a major trade war escalation that could hit vulnerable industries (aircraft, agriculture, luxury goods). The postponement reflects both economic pragmatism and strategic patience. Market Implications Near-term relief for European cyclical exporters and automotive supply chains. Volatility risk persists; underlying uncertainty keeps global supply chain hedging active. Global Health Risks from Western Aid Cuts Key Developments Wellcome Trust warns that sharp cuts in Western aid (e.g., 83% of USAID programs, UK’s 40% cut) could lead to deaths exceeding those caused by COVID-19 in Africa and other regions. Reductions threaten vaccination programs, HIV/AIDS prevention, and basic health infrastructure. Strategic & Social Implications Rising health crises could create regional instability, migration pressures, and political fragility. Potential for emergent humanitarian crises to undermine global economic resilience and security. Crypto Firms Move Toward US Banking Integration Key Developments Ripple, Circle, and BitGo seek national banking charters; Kraken to launch crypto-backed debit/credit cards. Trump administration’s pro-digital asset stance and proposed Genius Act accelerating integration of stablecoins with Treasury backing. Strategic Analysis Crypto players are rapidly shifting from an anti-establishment stance to a regulated model, seeking legitimacy and direct ties to the US banking system. This is a major strategic pivot toward mass-market adoption and integration. Market Implications Growth catalysts for regulated digital asset ecosystems. Opportunities in infrastructure (custody, payment rails, compliance tech). Regulatory framework evolution remains a key risk factor. US-Japan Relations Enter Critical Phase Key Developments Sharp deterioration in US-Japan ties as Trump imposes tariffs and demands higher defense spending (up to 3.5% of GDP). Japan’s requests for tariff exemptions rebuffed; possible alliance strain. US threatens to halt Okinawa troop relocation plans, creating a defense strategy crisis. Strategic Analysis Deepening transactional approach by US administration risks destabilizing one of Washington’s most strategic alliances. Japan’s ability to recalibrate is limited, leading to potential security vulnerabilities vis-à-vis China and North Korea. Market & Policy Implications Elevated geopolitical risk premium in Asia-Pacific. Potential reassessment of Japanese defense contractors and broader regional security investments. Possible long-term tailwinds for local defense and cybersecurity initiatives. Copper Tariff Uncertainty — Global Supply Chain Alert Key Developments US plans 50% copper tariffs from August 1; manufacturers seek clarity. Copper critical for EVs, semiconductors, defense, and green infrastructure. Stockpiles may last 6–9 months; longer-term supply risk remains acute. Strategic & Market Implications Significant inflationary pressures in downstream sectors. Supply chain disruptions could affect US manufacturing competitiveness, defense readiness, and green transition timelines. Potential opportunities for non-US copper producers and recyclers. Apollo's UK Pension Play — Bulk Annuities Strategy Key Developments Athora (Apollo-backed) acquires Pension Insurance Corporation for £5.7bn, entering the UK’s £500bn pension de-risking market. Signals strategy shift as US private capital increasingly integrates with retirement and insurance liabilities. Strategic Analysis Apollo’s model of “permanent capital” (buying long-duration liabilities to invest in high-yielding private assets) advances further into Europe. The move addresses demographic pressures and opens new fee streams. Market Implications Bullish for Apollo and similar alternative asset managers. Heightened scrutiny by regulators on risk transfer and solvency. UK pension de-risking market consolidation may create opportunities for specialized asset managers. Overall Global Themes & Recommendations Themes Structural defense rearmament and deterrence strategies reshaping Europe and Asia. Geopolitical realignments create new economic blocs and challenge global supply chains. Rise of state-supported industrial policies in Europe (FSR) and US (tariffs). Growing integration of crypto into mainstream finance under a friendlier US regulatory regime. Recommendations Overweight: European and US defense primes, cybersecurity, regulated crypto infrastructure. Underweight: Asian export-heavy sectors highly exposed to US tariff risk, particularly Japan. Selective Long: European industrial reshoring beneficiaries, US pension risk transfer facilitators. Monitor: Copper and critical mineral supply chains for inflation pass-through and supply constraints.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku