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Fundamental Analysis

Gold breaks trendline towards 3390, Uptrend resumes✏️ OANDA:XAUUSD The price increase will continue today and will be even stronger. After breaking the trendline, gold has strong support. SELL strategies are only considered to find short-term reaction points waiting for the next trends. Gold has confirmed the uptrend is back, heading to 3390 today. 📉 Key Levels Support 3330-3314 Resistance 3345-3362-3388 Sell trigger: rejection from 3345 with bearish confirmation Sell zone: 3362–3387 (Strong resistance) BUY trigger: 3330-3314 support with bounce confirmation Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
8
Deep Dive Part III – The Next BIG Whale Play UnfoldsDeep Dive Part III – The Next BIG Whale Play Unfolds 📍In Parts I & II of this Deep Dive, we broke down the psychology of whale behavior — from “Buy the Rumors, Sell the News” to the critical breakout zones that echoed historical patterns. 🐋 Back then, we spotted the whales' playbook early. The strategy was simple: Buy the Rumors – Sell the News. 🧠 But now, the script has changed. “The trap is where you’re most bored… 🌴📵 Their exit — on your liquidity — comes when you’re least ready. 💰🏄‍♂️💼” Let’s break this moment down into what’s really unfolding. We are officially entering the next stage of the cycle — not just in price, but in psychology. This is no longer just about charts. This is about human behavior on autopilot. Here’s what I see happening right now — broken into three truths: 1️⃣ People Are On Holiday 🌞 From my community to the broader market, the energy is low. People are either sunbathing on a beach or mentally checked out. The focus is not there. The reflex to take action is dulled. 📉 The trap is where you’re most bored… 🌴📵 💰 Their exit — on your liquidity — comes when you’re least ready. 🏄‍♂️💼🚀 We’re seeing it unfold now: 1. Set the Bear Trap 2. Trigger the FOMO (will be down the road, yes) 3. Exit on Liquidity (the closing act of the play) 🕶️ But when everyone is away or asleep, that’s when the trap is laid. It’s during these quiet, lazy days that the big moves get built. 2️⃣ This is a Disbelief Rally 🎢 The market trained everyone with a rhythm: pump ➝ dump, pump ➝ dump, pump ➝ dump… So what happens now? People don’t trust the breakout. They’re frozen. “We’ll dump again,” they say. Except… what if this time, we don’t? That disbelief becomes fuel. It becomes hesitation — and hesitation becomes missed opportunity. 3️⃣ Bears Are Shorting Into Strength 🧨 This is key. While retail is confused, the bears are pressing in hard. Their shorts are adding fuel to the pump they don’t see coming. That’s why I posted recently: “Shorting isn’t the problem. Being a psycho bear is.” It’s not about being bullish or bearish — It’s about timing , discipline , and narrative awareness . Whales love this moment. They lure in shorts, set the trap, then ignite the breakout straight into FOMO. 🧠 The Game: Set the Trap → Trigger the FOMO → Exit on Liquidity 💥 This is what you’re seeing on the chart. Not just price action — psychological choreography. 🕰️ In 2020–2021, we saw the exact same structure. Part I warned about early accumulation and baiting behavior. Part II showed how whales manipulated expectations with layered waves of doubt. Now in Part III — the explosion few are ready for. Zoom into the chart and it’s all there: The curve, the trap, the trigger… and yes — the Final Boss. 🎯 The Final Boss: 6.51T That’s the ultimate liquidity zone. If this cycle plays out, we’re headed toward it. “Sell the Rate Cuts” will be the new “Sell the News.” It’s not the headlines that matter — it’s who’s left holding the bag. 🔚 Final Thought The real exit — the one that traps most of retail — will come not when you’re euphoric, but when you’re still saying: “Surely we must dump now…” So stay sharp. Trade the chart — but don’t forget to read the behavior. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Part1: Part2:https://www.tradingview.website/chart/idea/VgMBPsp3/ The Bear Trap: Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by FX_Professor
6
Chili's: Still Cheap, Still Ignored, Still A Strong BuyCasual dining has been in limbo post-pandemic—too pricey for impulse meals, not fancy enough to feel special. But Brinker International (EAT), parent of Chili’s and Maggiano’s, is proving there's still a winning formula if you get the execution right. 🛠️ Operational Overhaul at Chili’s Chili’s has quietly transformed itself. A deep operational review led to smarter kitchen processes and a slimmed-down menu. These changes boosted both food quality and efficiency. By simplifying things like wing sauces and adding real-time kitchen tools, Chili’s improved service speed and cut costs—freeing up staff to focus on core offerings like burgers and margaritas. As management put it: "Marketing brings guests in, operations bring them back." 📣 Marketing That Works Chili’s is also nailing the branding. Viral TikToks and a more relaxed, value-focused message have resonated with consumers—both old fans and new. Unlike competitors chasing trends or discounts, Chili’s has leaned into what it does best: an affordable, comfortable dining experience. The strategy is working. Traffic is up, and customers are coming back—not just for the hype, but for the value. 📊 Financials and Growth Potential Analysts expect revenue growth of 21%, 5%, and 5.5% over the next three years, with EPS potentially growing more than 11% annually. However, we believe these estimates undervalue Chili’s long-term growth, especially as margins improve and brand momentum continues. At just 11x cash flow and a PEG ratio of 0.47, EAT is significantly cheaper than peers like Darden (2.1) and Shake Shack (3.8). That discount suggests the market hasn’t fully priced in Brinker’s turnaround. ⚠️ Risks to Watch Slowing improvements: Much of the "low-hanging fruit" in operations may already be picked, so future gains could taper off. Debt load: With $430M in long-term debt, a business slowdown could raise financial pressure, despite recent earnings strength. ✅ Bottom Line: Strong Buy Chili’s turnaround is more than a viral blip—it’s a smart reinvention. Combined with solid execution at Maggiano’s, Brinker International is proving that casual dining can still thrive. With strong fundamentals, smart leadership, and a discounted valuation, EAT stock looks like a compelling 'Strong Buy' for the next 12 months.
NYSE:EATLong
by PropNotes
1
Spotify's Valuation Is Red-Lining (Rating Downgrade)📈 Spotify's Remarkable Comeback Spotify NYSE:SPOT has transformed itself from a money-losing audio platform into a disciplined, profit-generating tech firm. Through smarter podcast investments, layoffs, and better monetization strategies, the company recently swung from red ink to positive free cash flow and strong earnings — a major shift for long-frustrated shareholders. This operational turnaround helped fuel a massive rally: Spotify shares have surged nearly 140% since May 2024. 💵 Financials Look Strong... for Now Revenue jumped from $15 billion to $17.4 billion over the past year — a 16% increase. Spotify also improved gross margins from 25% to 31.6%, while net margins turned positive at 7%. Bottom-line earnings exploded from a $119 million loss to $1.25 billion in profit. These gains came from several smart moves: - Reduced payouts to creators (from 75% to 70%) - AI-generated content, like white noise playlists, cutting royalty costs - Ad growth in podcasts and better ad tech - Higher efficiency in infrastructure and operations Analysts now expect Spotify’s earnings to grow another 74% this year, 45% in 2026, and 30% in 2027. 💰 But Valuation Is Stretched Despite the impressive financial performance, Spotify's stock appears overheated. It now trades at: 117x trailing earnings 71x forward earnings 37x estimated 2027 earnings These multiples are far above historical norms — and could spell trouble if growth slows even slightly. The company is running out of levers to improve margins further, and rising operational costs may start to weigh on profits. Spotify also trades at its highest-ever price-to-sales ratio, indicating elevated investor expectations. If the company underdelivers, the stock could face a significant correction. ⚖️ Our Take: Time to Hold, Not Buy We still believe in Spotify's long-term story. Its subscription model, improving margins, and global scale offer compelling advantages. But after this big run-up, the stock no longer offers favorable risk-reward. We’re downgrading from "Strong Buy" to "Hold", suggesting investors with gains may want to trim positions and wait for a more attractive entry point. 📌 Bottom Line: Spotify has executed well — but the stock price now reflects near-perfect performance. A pause, or pullback, wouldn’t surprise us.
NYSE:SPOT
by PropNotes
7
Report - 10 jully, 2025Germany Pushes European Rearmament — Supply Chain Call to Action Key Developments German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius demands the defense industry “stop complaining and deliver,” pushing for accelerated production. Berlin plans to raise annual defense spending to €162 billion by 2029 (+70% vs. current), the largest defense expansion since WWII. Focus on munitions, drones, tanks, submarines, fighter jets. Long-term contracts with annual purchase obligations to provide production certainty and encourage new capacity. Meeting with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to secure US support and coordinate Patriot missile supply (Germany has only 6 left). Despite Ukraine’s renewed requests, Germany will not send Taurus long-range missiles. Strategic Analysis Germany’s pivot (the "Zeitenwende") signals a historic shift toward a leadership role in European defense, stepping up as US support for continental security wanes. The move reshapes Europe's industrial base and procurement priorities, creating a structural, multiyear demand boom in defense production. This strategic acceleration responds to: Russia's aggression and rapid advances in Ukraine. A fragmented EU defense industry needing standardization and scale. The risk that delays in rearmament could embolden adversaries. Market & Investment Implications Bullish outlook for European defense primes: Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, KMW, and MBDA. Strong orders pipeline supports supplier valuations and capital investments. Defense-focused ETFs and long-cycle industrial funds gain attractiveness. Potential execution risks: capacity bottlenecks and regulatory procurement hurdles. North Korea’s Unconditional Support to Russia — New Security Axis Key Developments Kim Jong Un pledges "unconditional support" for Russia’s Ukraine war effort during Lavrov’s visit. North Korea has reportedly sent 13,000 troops and 12 million artillery shells since October, with plans for more troops this summer. Joint military and economic ties deepening: possible new infrastructure projects and North Korean goods in Russian markets. Strategic Analysis The explicit military alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang cements a new anti-Western axis in Northeast Asia. North Korean boots on the ground in Ukraine (even indirectly) create significant escalation risks and could legitimize wider allied responses. Market & Security Implications Increases global defense spending momentum, particularly in missile defense and artillery systems. Heightens regional security risk premium in Northeast Asia, reinforcing demand for US-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation. Potential new sanctions regimes targeting Russian and North Korean trade. EU to Intensify Foreign Subsidy Investigations Key Developments EU to expand probes into foreign-subsidized companies, particularly Chinese, using the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR). Target sectors: chemicals, pharmaceuticals, cars, batteries, and green tech. FSR empowers Brussels to block public procurement bids, M&A deals, and restrict single-market access. Strategic Analysis A clear industrial policy pivot: Brussels seeks to protect European value chains, local talent, and technological sovereignty. The EU is signaling it will emulate China’s own JV requirements to force knowledge transfer and local investment. Market & Corporate Implications Defensive boost for EU industrial and tech players — potential reshoring and local capacity expansion. Risks for Chinese EV, solar, and battery players in Europe. New compliance costs and operational hurdles for multinationals with Chinese JV exposure. EU Temporarily Suspends Tariff Retaliation Against US Key Developments EU delays €21 billion in planned retaliatory tariffs on US exports following Trump’s 30% tariff threat. Negotiations ongoing; additional €72 billion of potential retaliatory measures being prepared. Germany’s finance minister stresses continued “serious talks,” warning of possible decisive countermeasures if negotiations fail. Strategic Analysis EU seeks to avoid a major trade war escalation that could hit vulnerable industries (aircraft, agriculture, luxury goods). The postponement reflects both economic pragmatism and strategic patience. Market Implications Near-term relief for European cyclical exporters and automotive supply chains. Volatility risk persists; underlying uncertainty keeps global supply chain hedging active. Global Health Risks from Western Aid Cuts Key Developments Wellcome Trust warns that sharp cuts in Western aid (e.g., 83% of USAID programs, UK’s 40% cut) could lead to deaths exceeding those caused by COVID-19 in Africa and other regions. Reductions threaten vaccination programs, HIV/AIDS prevention, and basic health infrastructure. Strategic & Social Implications Rising health crises could create regional instability, migration pressures, and political fragility. Potential for emergent humanitarian crises to undermine global economic resilience and security. Crypto Firms Move Toward US Banking Integration Key Developments Ripple, Circle, and BitGo seek national banking charters; Kraken to launch crypto-backed debit/credit cards. Trump administration’s pro-digital asset stance and proposed Genius Act accelerating integration of stablecoins with Treasury backing. Strategic Analysis Crypto players are rapidly shifting from an anti-establishment stance to a regulated model, seeking legitimacy and direct ties to the US banking system. This is a major strategic pivot toward mass-market adoption and integration. Market Implications Growth catalysts for regulated digital asset ecosystems. Opportunities in infrastructure (custody, payment rails, compliance tech). Regulatory framework evolution remains a key risk factor. US-Japan Relations Enter Critical Phase Key Developments Sharp deterioration in US-Japan ties as Trump imposes tariffs and demands higher defense spending (up to 3.5% of GDP). Japan’s requests for tariff exemptions rebuffed; possible alliance strain. US threatens to halt Okinawa troop relocation plans, creating a defense strategy crisis. Strategic Analysis Deepening transactional approach by US administration risks destabilizing one of Washington’s most strategic alliances. Japan’s ability to recalibrate is limited, leading to potential security vulnerabilities vis-à-vis China and North Korea. Market & Policy Implications Elevated geopolitical risk premium in Asia-Pacific. Potential reassessment of Japanese defense contractors and broader regional security investments. Possible long-term tailwinds for local defense and cybersecurity initiatives. Copper Tariff Uncertainty — Global Supply Chain Alert Key Developments US plans 50% copper tariffs from August 1; manufacturers seek clarity. Copper critical for EVs, semiconductors, defense, and green infrastructure. Stockpiles may last 6–9 months; longer-term supply risk remains acute. Strategic & Market Implications Significant inflationary pressures in downstream sectors. Supply chain disruptions could affect US manufacturing competitiveness, defense readiness, and green transition timelines. Potential opportunities for non-US copper producers and recyclers. Apollo's UK Pension Play — Bulk Annuities Strategy Key Developments Athora (Apollo-backed) acquires Pension Insurance Corporation for £5.7bn, entering the UK’s £500bn pension de-risking market. Signals strategy shift as US private capital increasingly integrates with retirement and insurance liabilities. Strategic Analysis Apollo’s model of “permanent capital” (buying long-duration liabilities to invest in high-yielding private assets) advances further into Europe. The move addresses demographic pressures and opens new fee streams. Market Implications Bullish for Apollo and similar alternative asset managers. Heightened scrutiny by regulators on risk transfer and solvency. UK pension de-risking market consolidation may create opportunities for specialized asset managers. Overall Global Themes & Recommendations Themes Structural defense rearmament and deterrence strategies reshaping Europe and Asia. Geopolitical realignments create new economic blocs and challenge global supply chains. Rise of state-supported industrial policies in Europe (FSR) and US (tariffs). Growing integration of crypto into mainstream finance under a friendlier US regulatory regime. Recommendations Overweight: European and US defense primes, cybersecurity, regulated crypto infrastructure. Underweight: Asian export-heavy sectors highly exposed to US tariff risk, particularly Japan. Selective Long: European industrial reshoring beneficiaries, US pension risk transfer facilitators. Monitor: Copper and critical mineral supply chains for inflation pass-through and supply constraints.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
BTC - Urgent UpdateWe are now, once again, in the long-awaited price discovery phase for Bitcoin since last week. But this is not the time for impulsive FOMO moves. You need to understand where we are in the current cycle — and how you are positioned. Right now, the sell button is more relevant than the buy button. This weekly candle also brings us to another critical moment: a potential bearish divergence. We're either about to break through it — or face a price or time-based correction. Everyone should have their own personal plan for how to act now, and when and where to take profits. Stay Safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by The-white-goat
Bitcoin Skyrockets as Everyone Now Wants a Piece. What Happened?If you took a few days off last week and went to get coffee this morning, you likely missed Bitcoin torching its all-time high and soaring into the uncharted. The world’s most popular digital asset took off in an unstoppable rocket ride, smashing records so fast that even the always-wired-in day traders couldn’t keep up. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD blasted through $122,000 Monday morning after gobbling up sell walls at $120,000 and $121,000 in less than one hour. That’s not a typo. That’s an actual snapshot of what happens when you mix onchain whale movements, fresh institutional FOMO, and traders rediscovering their appetite for risk. Billions upon billions swirled up and Bitcoin passed $2.3 trillion in market cap (ref: our Crypto Heatmap ). 🙌 Bow Down Before the King Bitcoin has officially reminded every altcoin who wears the crown when markets go haywire. While some tiny tokens get to pump 100% on hype alone, Bitcoin does it with the weight of its market cap behind it — which now surpasses the GDP of entire countries. Its dominance share has climbed back above 64%, a level we haven’t seen since the last time crypto Twitter argued whether “flippening” would happen by next Thursday (spoiler: it didn’t, and we mean 2021). And right now, all eyes are pinned on that round, meme-ready milestone: $125,000 or even $150,000. Why these levels? Because traders love round numbers. They’re clean, symbolic, and if that next ceiling shatters, the chain reaction of liquidated shorts and new leveraged longs can turn an orderly bull run into pure market mayhem. 📈 Institutional Hoarding: The Secret Fuel If you think this is just retail traders YOLO’ing in from their parents’ basement, think again. Onchain data showed earlier this month that this moon mission was being quietly underwritten by the big boys — institutional funds, overflowing Bitcoin ETFs , and corporate treasuries that once scoffed at Bitcoin as “magic internet money.” Does this mean Bitcoin is becoming boring? Not quite. It means the foundation for this rally is sturdier than the TikTok-fueled moonshots of yesteryear. Think steady inflows, regulated vehicles, and balance sheets that no longer flinch when they see “digital assets” on a line item. 👀 So, Why Now? Bitcoin doesn’t need much of a reason to get volatile — you know that. But a few more stars than usual aligned to give this surge its lift-off moment. First, the macro backdrop: US inflation is at 2.4% (next ECONOMICS:USCPI report coming Wednesday, pay attention to the Economic Calendar ), which makes a Fed rate cut more likely later this year. Lower rates mean cheaper dollars, weaker bond yields, and renewed appetite for risk assets. Oh, and don’t forget about gold OANDA:XAUUSD — the OG “no yield, no problem” hedge. Second, corporate treasuries are all-in on Bitcoin again. If Michael Saylor’s Strategy NASDAQ:MSTR (formerly MicroStrategy — we all know what business they’re really in) keeps adding coins and onboarding new public companies like GameStop NYSE:GME , you know the institutions smell long-term value. Add Trump’s full-throated crypto endorsement and you’ve got a narrative tailwind no trader wants to miss. 🥂 Record Highs Everywhere — COINcidence? Now let’s go back to those aligning stars. Bitcoin’s fresh all-time high didn’t happen in a vacuum. The S&P 500 SP:SPX , the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC , and Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA — the world’s most expensive company — all clocked record closing highs last week. So, is this a “rising tide lifts all boats” moment? Or are we partying on borrowed time? Equities are riding a wave of hope that the Fed will start easing soon, and any whiff of a rate cut is pure oxygen for risk assets. But seasoned traders know that record highs can sometimes be the most dangerous places to FOMO in. Ask anyone who went all-in on dot-com stocks in 1999. 🏹 Eyes on the Big 120K — Will It Hold the Line? Short-term, the $120,000 milestone is the line in the sand everyone’s watching. Break it decisively, see if it holds above it for a week or so, and the floodgates of speculative capital might open for another leg higher. Stall out below it? You could see a healthy round of profit-taking and some bruised egos during quiet dinners. Macro factors will loom large: the Fed’s policy meeting, surprise tariff talks from the White House, or an unexpected bout of inflation could swing sentiment overnight. But for now, the mood is simple: bullish, frothy, and more than a little bit greedy. 💭 Final Take: From Moonshots to Maturity? The shift from whales to suits means fewer wild swings but steadier institutional demand. The days of “Lambo tomorrow” might be giving way to “slow grind higher for the next 5 years.” For the retirement portfolio, that’s not the worst outcome. For the traders who crave the adrenaline, there’s still plenty of room to catch the waves — just don’t expect them to come as easily or as frequently as they did in the wild west days. 📢 Your Turn: Moon or Swoon? Over to you: is Bitcoin ready to break out above $125,000 and send shorts scrambling for cover? Or is this just another overbought stall before a healthy pullback? Either way, grab your popcorn — and your stop-loss — because if there’s one thing crypto never does, it’s sit still for long. Drop your hot take below — and may your diamond hands be stronger than your coffee.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
23
WTI Crude Oil Climbs Higher Amid Market OptimismMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Climbs Higher Amid Market Optimism WTI Crude Oil price climbed higher above $66.50 and might extend gains. Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today - WTI Crude Oil price started a decent increase above the $66.60 resistance levels. - There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $67.15 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent upward move from $65.50. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $66.50 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $67.00 and $67.50 resistance levels. There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $67.15. The recent high was formed at $67.63 and the price started a downside correction. There was a minor move toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65.54 swing low to the $67.63 high. The RSI is now above the 60 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the $67.15 zone. The next major support on the WTI Crude Oil chart is near the $66.60 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level, below which the price could test the $65.50 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $64.70. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $63.50 support zone. If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $67.85. The next major resistance is near the $70.00 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.50 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
1
Market Analysis: Gold Climbs Higher Amid Market OptimismMarket Analysis: Gold Climbs Higher Amid Market Optimism Gold price started a fresh increase above the $3,350 resistance level. Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today - The gold price started a fresh surge and traded above $3,330. - A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,350 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen. Gold Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base near the $3,280 zone. The price started a steady increase above the $3,330 and $3,350 resistance levels. There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,360. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,365 resistance zone. A high was formed near $3,373 and the price is now consolidating. On the downside, immediate support is near the $3,350 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,282 swing low to the $3,373 high. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,350. The next major support sits at $3,330 and the 50% Fib retracement level. A downside break below the $3,330 support might send the price toward $3,300. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,280 support zone. Immediate resistance is near the $3,370 level. The next major resistance is near $3,380. An upside break above $3,380 could send Gold price toward $3,400. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,420 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
1
NASDAQ - Long Bias explanation and Entry/SL/TP ideasTrend : NASDAQ is in a strong uptrend at the moment Retail : Majority have a BEARISH sentiment on this pair Institutions : Increase in week over week holdings Structures : No structures as we are at highs so targeting recent formed high + round number above makes sense Price action : Sitting on a support shelf at the moment Targets : Recent high + level at round number (23000) Stops : Many options to place stops below Entries : Positive bounce at current level, decent entry zone but further possible entry levels sit below too If trading on a shorter timeframe, perhaps the gap fill is a good point to take the trade off the table. Targeting higher than 23 might be dangerous as we are playing around at ATHs
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Gamblers-Fallacy
ASKAUTOLTD - Strong Technicals + Strong Fundamentals Should be a long term play, looks strong from the medium term. Beautiful Chart. MCap less than 10K Cr, poised for growth, strong fundamentals, strong technicals. How to build Positions - Gradual scale in is your answer. Do not put in money blindly at open, good thinks take time to build and so should your portfolio. SL - 480 (roughly 11% away, slow accumulation should help get your average price less than 7% away from this SL)
NSE:ASKAUTOLTDLong
by bharatbulls
Soybeans and Rain: Moisture’s Market Impact on the Bean Trade1. Introduction: Moisture & Market Momentum Soybeans, often referred to as “the oilseed king,” are a cornerstone of global agriculture. As a leading source of protein for both humans and animals, their price fluctuations affect industries ranging from food production to biofuels. One key variable traders often monitor? Rainfall. 🌧️ Moisture plays a critical role in soybean development, influencing yield and quality from the moment the seed is sown. It’s no surprise that many market participants assume a strong correlation between rainfall and price behavior. But is that assumption truly supported by data? In this article, we analyze how varying precipitation levels impact weekly soybean futures returns. As you'll see, the results might not be as clear-cut as you’d expect—but they still offer meaningful insights. 2. Biological Realities: Soybeans’ Water Needs Soybeans thrive under specific conditions. While they’re generally resilient, rainfall—or the lack thereof—can tip the balance between bumper harvests and disappointing yields. During early vegetative stages, sufficient moisture ensures healthy root development. Later, during the pod-fill phase, rainfall becomes even more essential. Too little water at this point leads to incomplete pods or aborted seeds. On the flip side, too much rain can invite fungal diseases and delay harvests, especially in lower-lying regions. In countries like Brazil and Argentina, soybean fields often face seasonal extremes, while the U.S. Midwest typically enjoys more consistent conditions—though droughts and floods have both hit the Corn Belt in recent years. These environmental realities create natural volatility in both yield and pricing expectations. 3. Methodology: How We Analyzed Weather vs. Futures To explore the potential connection between rainfall and soybean futures prices, we collected weekly weather data for major soybean-growing cities across the globe. Each week’s precipitation was categorized using a normalized percentile system: Low Rainfall: below the 25th percentile Normal Rainfall: between the 25th and 75th percentiles High Rainfall: above the 75th percentile We then matched this data against weekly returns of standard soybean futures (ZS) and micro soybean futures (MZS), both traded on the CME Group. This allowed us to compare average price behavior in different rainfall scenarios—and test whether there was any statistically significant difference between dry and wet weeks. 4. Statistical Findings: Is There a Signal in the Noise? When examining the data, the initial visual impression from boxplots was underwhelming—return distributions across rainfall categories looked surprisingly similar. However, a deeper dive showed that the difference in mean returns between low and high precipitation weeks was statistically significant, with a p-value around 0.0013. What does that mean for traders? While the signal may not be obvious to the naked eye, statistically, rainfall extremes do impact market behavior. However, the magnitude of impact remains modest—enough to be part of your strategy but not enough to drive decisions in isolation. Soybean prices appear to be influenced by a mosaic of factors, with precipitation being just one tile in that complex picture. 5. Charting the Relationship: Visual Evidence While statistical tests gave us the green light on significance, we know traders love to “see” the story too. Boxplots of weekly soybean futures returns segmented by rainfall categories offered a subtle narrative: Low-precipitation weeks showed slightly higher average returns and tighter interquartile ranges. High-precipitation weeks had broader return distributions and more frequent downside outliers. Normal weeks exhibited relatively stable behavior, reinforcing the idea that the market reacts most during extremes. This kind of visualization may not scream alpha at first glance, but it reinforces the idea that precipitation events—particularly dry spells—tend to nudge prices upward, possibly as market participants price in production risk. 6. Trading Implications: Positioning Around Weather Here’s where things get practical. While weather alone won’t dictate every trading decision, it can be a key filter in a broader strategy. For soybean traders, rainfall data can help inform: Bias assessment: Low-precipitation weeks may suggest bullish tendencies. Risk control: Expect wider return distributions in high-precip weeks—adjust stops or contract sizing accordingly. Event trading: Pair weather anomalies with technical signals like trendline breaks or volume surges for potential setups. It’s also worth noting that weekly weather forecasts from reputable sources can serve as a forward-looking indicator, giving traders a head start before the market fully reacts. 7. Margin Efficiency with Micro Soybeans For traders looking to scale into soybean exposure without the capital intensity of full contracts, the CME Group’s micro-sized futures offer a compelling alternative. 📌 Contract Specs for Soybean Futures (ZS): Symbol: ZS Contract size: 5,000 bushels Tick size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Initial margin: ~$2,100 (varies by broker and volatility) 📌 Micro Soybean Futures (MZS): Symbol: MZS Contract size: 500 bushels Tick size: 0.0050 per bushel = $2.50 Initial margin: ~$210 These smaller contracts are perfect for strategy testing, risk scaling, or layering exposure around key macro events like WASDE reports or weather disruptions. For traders aiming to build weather-aligned positions, MZS is a powerful tool to balance conviction with capital efficiency. 8. Wrapping It All Together Rain matters. Not just in fields, but in futures prices too. While soybean markets may not overreact to every drizzle or downpour, extreme rainfall conditions—especially drought—can leave noticeable footprints on price action. For traders, this means opportunity. By incorporating precipitation metrics into your workflow, you unlock a new layer of context. One that doesn’t replace technical or fundamental analysis, but enhances both. And remember: this article is just one piece of a larger exploration into how weather affects the commodity markets. Make sure you also read prior installments. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by traddictiv
Copper: Event-driven Trade Idea on Recent TariffsCOMEX: Micro Copper Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MHG1! ), #microfutures The Event On July 9th, President Trump announced that he would impose a 50% tariff on imports of copper, effective August 1st. The decision was based on national security assessment. Copper is the second most used material by the U.S. Department of Defense. The President intents to use tariffs to reduce reliance on imports and shore up support for domestic production. Immediate Market Reaction U.S. copper prices ended Tuesday’s session over 13% higher — the sharpest single-day gain since 1989. The September COMEX copper futures contract was settled at $5.584 a pound on Friday, up 35.7% year-to-date. Due to tariffs, Copper in the U.S. is priced at a large premium over international markets. • UK: LME copper contract was quoted at $9,660.5 per ton on Friday. • China: SHFE coper futures was settled at RMB 78,420 per ton. It can be converted to $10,959.4 via the Dollar/RMB exchange rate of 7.1555. • US: COMEX copper quote of $5.584 can be converted to $12,312.7 per ton. • As of Friday, COMEX copper is priced at a 27.5% premium over LME copper, and a 12.3% premium over SHFE copper. The U.S. Copper Market The U.S. Geological Survey reports that the 2024 total refined copper consumption was 1.8 million metric tons. Of which, 850,000 tons were from mining, 150,000 tons were refined from scrap, and 810,000 tons from imports. Chile is the biggest source of U.S. copper imports, accounting for 581,000 tons, or 71.7% of total imports. Canada is the second largest, for 169,000 tons, or 20.9%. Copper is a widely used base metal, found in products ranging from machinery, electronics, household goods, housing, infrastructure projects, to aircraft and missiles. Since President Trump announced a probe into copper in February, traders have been poised for a hike on copper duties, leading to major shifts in inventories away from Europe and Asia and into the U.S. The Next Event: Will the Copper Tariffs get postponed or reduced? The goal to increase domestic production of copper is very challenging. It will take years to ramp up and decades to fully meet demand — at a massive upfront investment cost. Hiking the import duties would not help national security. It could not change the fact that the biggest copper mines are in Chile, Peru and Canada. A sharp increase in the cost of copper will quickly translate into wide-ranging inflation in the U.S. In my opinion, once the Trump administration realizes the full impacts, we could possibly see a crawl-back from the intended copper tariffs. The effective date would be postponed, the tariff rate could be reduced, and many companies may get exemption/waiver. We have seen similar maneuvers happening multiple times in the past few months. Overall, the actual impact of copper tariffs will be much smaller than the original announcement. Shorting COMEX Copper Futures Historically, the price difference between COMEX and LME coppers has been near-zero and was around the $150 level in 2024. Since February, COMEX copper has been trading at $500-$1,500 premium over LME. As of Friday, COMEX copper futures have gone up 35% this year and are now priced at $2,652 per ton above LME copper. In my opinion, these price differences reflect no economic fundamentals. It is purely due to the ever-changing global tariff conflict. If President Trump rescinds his tariff narratives, we could likely see a large drop in COMEX copper prices. A trader sharing this view could explore shorting the COMEX Micro copper ( GETTEX:MHG ). Last Friday, the September micro copper futures contract (MHGU5) was settled at 5.5910. Each contract has a notional value of 2,500 pounds of high-grade copper, or a market value of $13,977.5. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $1,100. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 12.7-to-1. Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how to use a short futures position to take advantage a potential reduction on copper tariffs. Hypothetical Trade: • Short 1 MHGU5 contract at 5.5910, and set a stop loss at 6.00 • Trader pays $1,100 for initial margin Scenario 1: Tariffs go into effect, copper rises to $6.57 • Futures reflect a 50% premium over current LME copper price, which is at $4.38 per pound • Short order stop loss at 6.00, and the maximum loss is $1,022.5 (= (6-5.591) x 2500) • The trader loses most of the margining fund, but owes no more Scenario 2: Trump Rescinds Tariffs, Copper falls to $4.38 • COMEX copper will be priced at No premium over LME • Short position gains: $3,027.5 (= (5.591-4.38) x 2500) • The hypothetical return will be 275.2% (= 3027.5 / 1100) The above scenarios show that • When copper falls, short position will have higher returns due to its leverage nature. • When copper rises, the stoploss will kick in to set maximum losses. The above trade idea could be deployed using the standard-size Copper Futures contract. Its notional value is 25,000 tons, which is 10 times bigger than that of the micro contract. The initial margin is $11,000. The standard-size contract is more liquid. On Friday, it had a total volume of 60,313 contracts, and an open interest of 221,682. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MHG1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
GBPUSD → Correction amid a global bullish trend...FX:GBPUSD is testing the 1.345 - 1.35 area as part of a correction. The price is closing the imbalance zone and testing support, which may trigger a reaction. Further developments will largely depend on the dollar, which is testing resistance. The daily market structure is quite strong. The correction against the backdrop of a strong trend is within acceptable limits, and bulls should fight to keep the price away from risk zones. GBPUSD, as part of the correction, closes the imbalance zone of 1.34 - 1.35 (0.7 - 0.79f) and forms a false breakdown of the intermediate support level of 1.3476. If buyers hold their ground in the 1.347-1.35 zone, the currency pair will be able to return to the global trend. Support levels: 1.3476, 1.345, 1.3382 Resistance levels: 1.3511, 1.359, 1.375 Price consolidation above 1.349 - 1.350 will confirm the market's intentions. In this case, we can expect growth to 1.36 - 1.374. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
14
Where Will XRP go?Short‑Term (some weeks) -There’s strong excitement around the ProShares XRP ETF, launching July 18, 2025, which has boosted institutional inflows and whale wallet activity. -Technical indicators currently signal overbought conditions, increasing the chance of a correction before further upward movement . Mid‑Term (6–12 Months) -Analysts are factoring in XRP potentially becoming a $750 billion asset ($12–$13 per XRP) through institutional acceptance and tokenization use cases . -However, hitting that target will require transformative adoption, regulatory clarity, and heavy usage on the XRP Ledger. Long‑Term (1–5 Years) -If XRP captures large markets like CBDCs, remittances, real‑world asset tokenization, and stablecoin usage, prices could surge significantly. -Still, such outcomes hinge on regulatory alignment and broad ecosystem deployment. Recent Crypto Mining News AI + Mining Megadeals -CoreWeave (an AI infra firm) is acquiring Bitcoin miner Core Scientific for $9 billion, signaling a pivot from mining to AI compute. Ethereum‑Backed Treasury Shifts -BitMine Immersion saw its stock surge ~3,000%, moving its treasury to Ethereum. -BIT Mining Ltd. doubled its stock after investing heavily in Solana, diversifying beyond Bitcoin. Broader Mining & Regulation Trends -U.S. “Crypto Week” is underway with bills like the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act aiming to define stablecoin rules and improve clarity. -Tech energy demands, especially from AI, now rival those of crypto mining—raising questions of sustainability. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
COINBASE:XRPUSDLong
by bossout10
1
NIFTY Quick update - We are less than 3% away from the ATH. This is a healthy market pullback. 50 DMA is above 200 DMA and is trending up. This could be a short term pivot and we can touch (or slightly undercut 50 DMA) and continue moving up. My portfolio is infact rising during this pullback - this implies the strongest stocks are actually still leading, there is no profit booking yet. Use this time to cut out your underperforming stocks and add to your winners. Strongest Pockets in the markets - Finance, Banks, Capital Markets, Pharma, Infra/Realty. Some pockets that are setting up - Metals, IT, Auto (dont expect outperformance here, markets have moved up while these are still setting up, so its a good chance they move in line with the markets, not much alpha here)
NSE:NIFTYLong
by bharatbulls
EURAUD: Rebound to 1.798 is high probabilityI am watching for a reversal here EURAUD as marked on my chart, expecting a rejection with a upside target at around 1.798. This are is where it can become a decision point, either price finds support and bounces, or it breaks below, and that’s when we might see the move start to extend lower. If we get a decisive move upside, my next area of interest is marked as T2. From there we can expect either potential accumulation or another reaction, depending on broader market sentiment at the time. Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TrendDiva
29
Gold vs Euro: Heist Plan Activated – Watch the Breakout🏆XAU/EUR Golden Robbery Masterplan: Steal from Weak Hands, Escape with Gold!💰✨ 🌍Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌍 Welcome, Money Makers & Market Robbers! 🤑💰💸✈️ Another top-secret robbery mission drops now — this time on the XAU/EUR battlefield! Gold vs Euro... Who wins? We do! 🏴‍☠️🎯 🔍The Setup: Thief Trading Strategy™ Active – Bullish Breakout Mode Engaged 🔒 Resistance wall at 3400 is the lock. 💣 Breakout is the detonation point. 🟢 Target: 2970.00 (but smart robbers always escape before the sirens ring 🚨). ⚠️ATR Zone = danger zone = potential trend reversal trap = don’t get greedy. 🛠️Execution Plan (aka How to Rob the Market Clean) 📈 Entry Plan "The vault’s about to open..." 💥 Breakout above Moving Average (3400) = BUY confirmation. ☑️ Set Buy Stop Orders just above MA. ☑️ OR plan a Pullback Buy Limit on recent swing low/high in 15–30M TF. 🛎️ SET ALERTS like a real thief waiting for the back door to open! 🛑 Stop Loss Strategy "Don’t be a hero – be a survivor." 📍 SL suggestion: 2845.00 (2H swing low) 💡 Customize SL based on lot size & risk appetite. 🚨 Only set SL after breakout confirmation (don’t let false alarms shake you). 🎯 Profit Target / Exit Strategy ⛏️ Dig for gold at 2970.00, but 🏃‍♂️Escape before the trap springs. 🧲 Scalpers: Stick to LONGS only! 💼 Big accounts: hit hard. 🧠 Small robbers: join swing crew and trail the stop — protect the loot 💰 📊 Trend & Fundamentals Summary ⚖️ Current Trend: Neutral → Bullish Bias 🔍 Influenced by: Macro Data Euro Sentiment Shift COT Positioning Central Bank Whispers Intermarket Forces Geopolitical Sparks 🔥 🧠 Full breakdown in the fundamental zone (liinkk 🔗 Klik). 🚨 News Warning Alert 📰 Avoid entries near major news releases. 🎯 If in trade, manage with trailing SL to lock profits & limit damage. 🔥💖 Support the Mission Hit that BOOST 💥 button — fuel our next big heist. Let’s show the market we rob, we don't beg! 💪 Be loyal to the crew. Trade smart. Escape rich. 🐱‍👤📈 🔐 Disclaimer: This is for education & entertainment – not financial advice. 💡 Always DYOR & adjust risk per your capital. 🧠 Stay sharp. Stay rich. See you on the next score! 💼🚁💸
PEPPERSTONE:XAUEURLong
by The-Thief
Early Week Pullback Ahead of Key Economic ReleasesGold Outlook – 14 July | Early Week Pullback Ahead of Key Economic Releases 🌍 Market Sentiment & Macro Overview Gold has started the week with a sharp retracement after filling prior liquidity gaps (FVG) from the past two weeks. This early weakness signals a risk-off tone as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of a heavy macroeconomic calendar and geopolitical trade discussions. This week’s high-impact events include: 📌 US CPI (Inflation Data) 📌 US PPI (Producer Prices) 📌 Unemployment Claims 📌 Retail Sales Figures These data points will likely set the tone for price action through the second half of the week, with potential for sharp moves in gold. 📉 Technical Snapshot – M30 Chart Structure Price swept minor liquidity above recent highs Pulled back by more than $15 from the short-term top Currently trading below the intraday VPOC (~3358), suggesting short-term bearish momentum If the selling pressure holds, we may see a move toward: ⚠️ 333x zone — initial liquidity pool ❗ 332x zone — deeper liquidity grab before any bullish reversal 🧭 Trading Plan – Key Zones and Setup 📥 Buy Setup: 3331 – 3329 (Zone of Interest) Stop Loss: 3325 Target Levels: TP1: 3335 TP2: 3340 TP3: 3344 TP4: 3350 TP5: 3360 – 3370 ✅ A highly reactive zone — ideal for intraday long setups if price sweeps into this area and shows bullish confirmation (e.g., volume spike or rejection wick). 📤 Sell Setup: 3393 – 3395 (Resistance Re-Test) Stop Loss: 3399 Target Levels: TP1: 3390 TP2: 3386 TP3: 3382 TP4: 3378 TP5: 3374 – 3370 – 3360 📉 Potential scalp zone if price retests resistance with signs of exhaustion. Monitor closely for bearish structure confirmation. 📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels Resistance Zones: 3358 3368 3374 3394 Support Zones: 3349 3340 3331 3318 These zones remain relevant for both momentum trades and reversion setups. ⚠️ Strategy Considerations At the time of writing, gold is trading indecisively around the M30 VPOC. No clear breakout has occurred yet. ⏳ Wait for volume confirmation during the London session 🚫 Avoid impulsive entries based on emotions or FOMO ✅ Stick to your risk parameters and let price come to your level 🧠 Summary & Bias Gold is experiencing an early-week technical correction after recent strength. The market is in "wait-and-see" mode, with macro drivers likely to dictate direction from mid-week onwards. 📍 Watch the 3331–3329 zone closely — it remains the most attractive level for long setups. 📍 The 3393–3395 zone is a key area to fade strength if price struggles at resistance. Patience and precision are key this week. Let the market reveal its intention, and trade accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
2
XAUUSD Analysis – July 14, 2025: Gold Tests Critical Resistance Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around $3,373, rebounding strongly from the recent low at $3,294. Price is now testing the key resistance zone at $3,372–3,375, which aligns with the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement of the previous downtrend and a significant supply zone on the H4 timeframe. 1. Technical Analysis (H4 Chart): 🔹 Fibonacci & Price Action: The price found strong support at $3,294, where previous demand and Fibonacci levels converge. A sharp bullish move has pushed price above the 0.5 (at $3,316) and 0.618 (at $3,322) Fibonacci levels – signaling strong buyer interest. The $3,372 zone is now acting as short-term resistance, matching the previous swing high. 🔹 EMA & RSI: EMAs are trending upward, confirming short-term bullish momentum. RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback in the short term. 🔹 Trendline & Structure: Price remains above the rising trendline, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The nearest support zone is now at $3,322 – $3,333, which overlaps with key Fibonacci and previous structure levels. 2. Key Price Levels: Price Zone Significance:3,372 – 3,375 Short-term resistance – Fibo 0.0:3,345 – 3,333 First support – pullback zone:3,322 – 3,316 Strong support – EMA + Fibo 0.5:3,294 – 3,287 Major support – recent swing low 3. Suggested Trading Strategies: Strategy 1 – Take Profit for Existing Longs: If you entered long positions near $3,295–$3,300, consider taking partial profits at the current resistance zone ($3,372–$3,375). Strategy 2 – Short-Term Sell Opportunity: Consider a short entry near $3,372–$3,375, with a stop-loss above $3,383. Target profit: $3,333 – $3,322 Strategy 3 – Buy on Dip (Trend Continuation): If price pulls back to the $3,333 – $3,322 support and holds, this is a good zone to enter long. Stop-loss below $3,316, with potential target back to $3,385 – $3,400 if a breakout occurs. Gold is showing a solid recovery after a sharp decline, but it is now testing a key resistance zone around $3,373. Caution is advised in the short term, as a pullback may occur. Priority should be given to "Buy on Dip" strategies if support zones hold.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
BTC: Next price Halving 📊Analysis by AhmadArz: #BTCUSD By calculating the price growth in the 4-year halving time frame, we came to the conclusion that with the growth of the Bitcoin market cap, its growth will be halved and we can expect $120,000 from Bitcoin, and it is expected to grow up to 270,000 dollars in halvings. 🔗"Uncover new opportunities in the world of cryptocurrencies with AhmadArz. 💡Join us on TradingView and expand your investment knowledge with our five years of experience in financial markets." 🚀Please boost and💬 comment to share your thoughts with us!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ahmadarz