XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis : Structure analysis + Next Reversal📌 1. Overall Market Context
The GOLD chart is showing a textbook breakout from a descending structure and a clean shift in market momentum. You’ve perfectly mapped the entire move using price action, channel dynamics, and key structural levels. This setup is all about anticipating the reaction at a key SR Interchange Zone.
🛠️ 2. Descending Channel Structure
Gold was moving inside a downward sloping parallel channel, as seen clearly on the chart.
Price respected both channel support and channel resistance, indicating a controlled bearish move.
The tag “Channel Support” shows the final reaction before the breakout.
This pattern often signals a corrective phase, not a strong downtrend.
✅ 3. Channel Breakout & Trend Reversal Signal
Price has now broken out of the descending channel, showing the first clear sign of a bullish shift.
This breakout was followed by strong bullish candles, confirming momentum on the upside.
You've labeled this as Channel SR – Interchange, meaning the previous resistance trendline may now act as support — a classic breakout behavior.
📉 4. Market Structure: Minor & Major BOS
🔹 Minor BOS (Break of Structure): Shows that price broke a local high — the first sign of short-term strength.
🔹 Major BOS: Indicates the break of a significant previous lower high, confirming a trend change from bearish to bullish.
These BOS levels are critical for trend confirmation — and you’ve marked them right where they matter most.
🧠 5. Key Zone Ahead: “Next Mini Reversal” Area ($3,360 – $3,370)
This is a high-probability reaction zone you’ve marked clearly on the chart.
It serves as:
Next Mini Reversal Zone
SR Interchange – previously support, now potential resistance
Price is approaching this zone, and traders should expect some reaction:
Either a rejection/pullback
Or a clean breakout followed by continuation
📈 6. Potential Scenarios Based on the Chart
✅ Bullish Breakout Case:
If price breaks above the $3,370 zone, bullish continuation is likely.
Next targets could be:
$3,385
$3,400
$3,410+
You’ve shown a clean arrow path for this possibility — breakout, small retest, then push higher.
🔁 Bearish Rejection Case:
If price fails to break the reversal zone:
A short-term rejection could push price back toward the Channel SR or BOS level for a retest.
This would form a higher low, keeping the bullish structure intact.
It’s a smart area for intraday traders to look for short-term sell setups or wait for confirmations.
🔐 7. Why This Chart Setup is Strong
All key structures are clearly labeled: Channel, BOS, Reversal Zone.
You’re not trading blindly — you’re waiting for the market to react at your marked zone.
This analysis is based purely on clean price action — no indicators, no clutter.
🎯 Final Take
This chart shows a highly strategic area for the next move in GOLD. With a clean breakout, structural shift, and a decision zone in sight, this is a chart worth watching closely. Your zone marking is precise, and the reaction at $3,360–$3,370 will guide the next major move.
Fundamental Analysis
Bank Mergers in CheckBank Mergers in Check: Between Brussels and National Interests
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Banking consolidation plans in Europe have gained momentum in 2025, driven by the Draghi and Letta reports, which advocate for the creation of pan-European banks capable of competing globally with U.S. and Chinese giants. However, the recent BBVA-Sabadell and UniCredit-BPM merger cases expose growing tensions between the EU’s ambitions and national protectionist policies. Spain and Italy are placing roadblocks on two key deals, casting doubt on real progress toward an effective banking union, while political intervention in operations with continent-wide implications is raising concern.
State Intervention: Protection or Market Obstacle?
Both the Spanish and Italian governments have imposed strict conditions on the mergers. In BBVA’s case, Spain’s government, led by Pedro Sánchez, demands that Sabadell remain a separate entity for at least three years and prohibits layoffs directly related to the deal. Although BBVA’s chairman Carlos Torres has not backed down, the conditions have triggered legal and institutional tensions.
Italy has taken an even tougher stance. The government under Giorgia Meloni requires UniCredit to fully exit Russia by summer 2026, maintain BPM’s branch network, and preserve loan, deposit, and asset ratios. CEO Andrea Orcel hasn’t ruled out the deal but has clearly cooled expectations.
Brussels Takes Notice
Though these demands are framed as serving the public interest, they may conflict with the EU’s principle of free movement of capital. The European Commission has launched the EU Pilot mechanism, a preliminary step before a possible infringement procedure, to assess the legality of the actions. While no formal case has been opened yet, Brussels has made it clear: political interference threatens the credibility of the single banking market and could deter institutional investors. As ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos bluntly stated: “These interventions limit the narrative of European financial integration.” His words echo the technocratic tone of Draghi’s banking memo for Europe.
BBVA and UniCredit Face the Market
Despite the political noise, both banks remain fundamentally solid. BBVA’s strong presence in Latin America, attractive P/E ratio, and dividend yield stand out. Still, restrictive conditions could slow integration. UniCredit boasts robust capital ratios and a strong ROE, but regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical exposure continue to weigh on its strategic outlook.
Fundamental Analysis
BBVA:
Trades at an attractive P/E ratio around 7x with a dividend yield above 6%.
Strong exposure to emerging markets, especially Mexico, offers growth potential.
Merger restrictions with Sabadell may delay synergies and increase short-term costs.
UniCredit:
Solid capital (CET1 fully loaded above 15%) and ROE near 14%.
BPM acquisition would boost market share in Italy, but political hurdles could limit benefits.
Geopolitical uncertainty (Russia exit) adds execution pressure.
Technical Analysis
BBVA:
Consolidating between €13.90 (highs) and €12.645, with key supports at €11.085 and €9.80.
A breakout above resistance could trigger further upside, though regulatory pressure may limit short-term gains.
Current point of control at €13.035 aligns with the 50-day MA, supporting the latest bullish move. RSI at 54.96% is neutral; MACD shows signs of bullish consolidation.
UniCredit:
Trading at all-time highs of €61.56 after breaking the €58.66–€54.34 consolidation range; point of control at €56.64.
Supports at €50.05 and just below €39; a move beyond €39 would require BPM deal clarity.
A drop below €33 could lead to €30, a psychological support level, though strong earnings make this unlikely in the short term.
RSI at 59.02% is slightly overbought and correcting from the recent rally, which remains supported by the 50-day MA. MACD is trending upward.
Toward a Real Banking Union?
Current tensions raise a pressing question: can the EU advance its banking union if each state sets its own rules? Brussels’ technocratic push for free capital movement is increasingly at odds with a wave of national interventionism. The conditions imposed in these two high-profile mergers have turned them into regulatory battlegrounds, introducing not just regulatory risk, but also financial and geopolitical uncertainty into the equation—affecting both valuation and the strategic path of the banks involved.
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Gold Price Analysis July 11Gold price today continues to maintain a strong upward momentum after breaking the previous support trendline (gold wire). Currently, SELL orders should only be considered as short-term response transactions, with priority given to monitoring to join the main trend.
✅ Trend: Up has been confirmed, the nearest target is towards the 3390 area today.
🔑 Key Levels:
Support: 3330 – 3314
Resistance: 3345 – 3362 – 3388
🎯 Trading strategy:
SELL activation: Watch the 3345 area, only SELL when there is a price rejection signal with a confirmation of a decrease.
Potential SELL area: 3362 – 3387 (strong resistance).
BUY Activation: Look for buying opportunities at support 3330 – 3314 if there is a clear bullish reversal signal.
109K Launch Zone? Bitcoin Update Now LiveHey everyone,
Here's my latest Bitcoin analysis for you. The current price action is unfolding within an ABC corrective wave.
🔍 I've identified the optimal buy zone between 108,349 and 109,682.
📉 Once the price pulls back into this range, my limit orders will be triggered and the position will open.
🎯 In this scenario, my target level is 118,157.
Below are the exact levels for my entry, targets, and stop-loss:
- 🟩 Entry Level: 109,027
- 🟥 Stop-Loss: 105,876
- 🎯 TP1: 111,156
- 🎯 TP2: 113,607
- 🎯 TP3: 118,362
- ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.00
(This is based on a swing trade model, so reaching this level may take some time)
--------
Your likes and support are what keep me motivated to share these analyses consistently.
Huge thanks to everyone who shows love and appreciation! 🙏
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 11, 2025 USDJPYThe dollar is holding steady at 146.500 against the yen: another rise in US yields and stable demand for safe US assets following comments from the Fed are fueling appetite for the USD, while demand for the JPY remains sluggish.
The tariff front exacerbates the imbalance: the White House has already imposed 25% tariffs on Japanese goods, and new ideas for “umbrella” tariffs are heightening fears of a trade war, forcing investors to flow into financing currencies. Reuters notes that the yen weakened to 146.400, recording a weekly decline of more than 1%.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for aggressive tightening: a decline in inflation to 1.8% y/y and weak real wage dynamics make it difficult to raise rates above 0.5%. The divergence in monetary policy and expectations for Japanese macro data (machine tool orders, industrial production) until July 14 form the fundamental basis for the pair's growth to 147.500 and above, while the risks of correction are limited to the 145.900 zone.
Trading recommendation: BUY 146.500, SL 145.900, TP 147.500
Can Strategic Minerals Transform National Security?MP Materials has experienced a significant market revaluation, with its stock surging over 50% following a pivotal public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). This multi-billion-dollar agreement, which includes a $400 million equity investment, substantial additional funding, and a $150 million loan, aims to rapidly establish a robust, end-to-end U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain. This strategic collaboration is designed to curtail the nation's reliance on foreign sources for these critical materials, which are indispensable for advanced technology systems across both defense and commercial applications, from F-35 fighter jets to electric vehicles.
The partnership underscores a profound geopolitical imperative: countering China's near-monopoly over the global rare earth supply chain. China dominates rare earth mining, refining, and magnet production, a leverage it has demonstrably used through export restrictions amidst escalating trade tensions with the U.S. These actions highlighted acute U.S. vulnerabilities and the imperative for domestic independence, propelling the DoD's "mine to magnet" strategy aimed at achieving self-sufficiency by 2027. The DoD's substantial investment and its new position as MP Materials' largest shareholder signal a decisive shift in U.S. industrial policy, directly challenging China's influence and asserting economic sovereignty in a vital sector.
Central to the deal's financial attractiveness and long-term stability is a 10-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for key rare earths, significantly higher than historical averages. This guarantee not only ensures MP Materials' profitability, even against potential market manipulation, but also de-risks its ambitious expansion plans, including new magnet manufacturing facilities expected to produce 10,000 metric tons annually. This comprehensive financial and demand certainty transforms MP Materials from a commodity producer vulnerable to market whims into a strategic national asset, attracting further private investment and setting a powerful precedent for securing other critical mineral supply chains in the Western Hemisphere.
TRADING IDEA - US CRUDE OIL - BEARISH FLAG, CONCERNS ON GLOBAL EFOREXCOM:USOIL
The US Crude Oil prices went down yesterday, mostly because of the tariffs and concerns on demand.
Here is what the Bloomberg is writing: " OPEC+ is discussing a pause in its oil production increases from October is fueling concerns about a slowdown in global energy demand. In addition, the intensification of US tariffs risks slowing global economic growth and energy demand after President Trump ramped up tariffs on numerous countries this week, including a 50% tariff on Brazil."
So, despite the pause in oil production increase, which is supposed to be bullish factor the oil prices, we may see the slowdown in global economy and supposedly a recession because of Trump's tariffs. This is a long-term bearish factor for the oil. I think that we will see another bearish impulse here, according to what we observe on the chart.
There is a nice bearish flag and i am planning to short it with a target nearby 6,540.00 support level.
🔽 a pending sell stop order at 6615.3 with
❌a stop loss at 6680.9 and
🤑a take profit at 6544.0
Trade cautiously! Preserve your deposits!
EURUSD is ready to break supportCMCMARKETS:EURUSD
The Euro fell to 1.1670 on Friday, positioning for nearly a 1% weekly loss 📊, as investors recalibrated risk exposure amid escalating trade tensions ⚔️ and shifting monetary policy signals 🏦.
📉 Market Structure:
🔻 EURUSD has traded in a bearish trend since July 1.
🔹 Support levels: 1.1680 and 1.1590.
🔹 Retested the 1.1680 support zone on Friday.
💡 How to Trade This:
✅ If the pair rebounds from support 🔄, consider BUYING with a Take Profit near the next resistance level.
❌ If the support breaks with confirmation 🩻, consider SELLING to target lower support zones.
📰 What’s Driving the Move?
🏦 Monetary Policy:
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pushed back against calls for aggressive rate cuts 🗣️, reaffirming the Fed’s focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability ⚖️. His cautious stance adds uncertainty 🤔 to the policy outlook for the second half of the year as markets weigh inflation risks vs. growth slowdown signals.
💼 Economic Data:
The labor market remains solid 💪, but recent jobless claims data show early signs of cooling 🧊, following last week’s strong NFP report.
💵 Dollar Strength:
The dollar advanced sharply against the euro 🚀, driven by risk aversion, relative yield advantages, and investor positioning ahead of upcoming inflation data and the Fed’s next policy signals 📈.
🚨 Watch for:
🔸 A confirmed breakout or rebound at 1.1680 to guide trade entries.
🔸 Upcoming U.S. inflation data 🪙 for direction on Fed policy and USD strength.
🔸 Further developments in trade tensions 🌐, which could drive risk sentiment.
BTCUSD (Bitcoin): Forex Technical AnalysisDate: 11 July 2025
Momentum: Up
First Scenario : long positions above 115,706.14 with targets at 117,269.52, 117,904.51 and 118,513.05
Second Scenario : short positions below 115,706.14 with targets at 114,544.35, 113,774.89 and 113,053.39
Comment: RSI - Bullish.
Supports and resistances :
118,513.05 **
117,904.51 *
117,269.52
116,747.25 - Last price
114,544.35
113,774.89 *
113,053.39 **
BTCUSD Heading Yesterday's Resistance Zone, Price Will React After a recovery to 107.500 BTCUSD is recovering to the upside again towards the resistance of 1.09500. This is the convergence zone between the trendline and yesterday's high. BTCUSD price may correct lower from this zone. Then find some new bullish momentum at strong support zones towards an all-time high.
Support 107.500 - 105.300
SELL Trigger: Break bellow 107.500
Resistance: 109.500- 110.500
Wish you successful trading, leave your comments about BTC.
USDCHF continues bullish recovery. Opportunity for BUY signal✏️#USDCHF is showing bullish recovery. The price is trading in a triangle pattern in the recovery phase. The 1.79500 area is an important support zone that is driving the pair's upside. 0.80700 is the immediate Target for a BUY signal.
📈Key Level
SUPPORT 0.79500
RESISTANCE 0.80700
BUY now at support 0.79500
Target: 0.80700
SELL Trigger: Break support 0.79500
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Gold price surge, today will have a decline✏️ OANDA:XAUUSD The recovery of the D1 candle and the closing candle above 3313 means that the market's downtrend has almost been broken.
The reaction at the current trendline 3284 is still very strong. The price is strongly supported by the buyers, causing gold to return to trading in a wide range.
The 3328 zone will be important in the near future. If it does not break, there will be a decline to the Gap price zone this morning. Trading according to the top-bottom method is suitable for the current market.
Support: 3312-3295-3279
Resistance: 3328-3339-3349-3363
Sell trigger: rejection from 3328–3,340 resistance block
Target: 3295 Support zone, followed by 3279 lower zone
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
EURAUD confirms the continuation of the bearish correction trendEURAUD has just broken the rising channel to start a downtrend. The confirmation is there with the h4 candle closing completely below the support zone of the Price Channel. This corrective downtrend can now extend to the support of 1.766. The support zone is a Break point at the moment 1.778 is a positive DCA point with a SELL Entry above.
Support: 1.778-1.766
Resistance: 1.790-1.797
Sell now: Resistance zone 1.79000
Target: 1.778 Support zone, followed by 1.766 lower zone
Sell Trigger: Break below 1.778
BUY Trigger: rejection 1.778 Support zone
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Gold Price Analysis July 10🔹 XAUUSD Analysis – D1
Yesterday's D1 candle showed a strong recovery, closing above 3313, thereby significantly weakening the previous downtrend structure. Currently, the price is reacting very strongly at the trendline around 3284. Buying pressure is clearly appearing, pushing gold back to trading in a wide range.
In the short term, the 3328 area will play an important resistance role. If the price cannot break this area, the possibility of a correction down to the Gap price area this morning is quite high. The peak-bottom trading method is still giving suitable signals in the current market context.
🔹 Important zones:
Support: 3312 – 3295 – 3279
Resistance: 3328 – 3339 – 3349 – 3363
💡 Strategy:
Confirm the trading signal when the price clearly rejects the resistance zones to ensure the highest winning rate.
GOLD continues to recover, tariff war changes unpredictablyInternational OANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise, boosted by a slight decline in the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. At the same time, investors are closely monitoring the developments in trade negotiations as US President Trump expands the tariff war.
As of the time of writing, spot OANDA:XAUUSD increased by 0.3% to 3,333 USD/oz. The general weakness of the US Dollar, the decline in US Treasury yields and renewed concerns about the escalation of the trade war have helped stabilize gold prices.
On Thursday evening (July 10) local time, US President Donald Trump once again increased pressure on trading partners. He announced that he would impose a 35% tariff on imported goods from Canada, and the USD/CAD exchange rate rose sharply in the short term.
Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that a 35% tariff would be imposed on imported goods from Canada, effective from August 1, 2025.
It is still unclear whether the current exemptions for goods traded under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be extended or terminated.
Due to the impact of escalating trade tensions, spot gold prices also rose by more than 10 dollars in the short term at the beginning of the Asian trading session on Friday, and the current high price of gold has reached around 3,336 USD/ounce.
In an interview with NBC News on Thursday, Trump said he was also considering imposing a flat tariff of 15% to 20% on most of his trading partners, adding that the exact tariff rate was being worked out. The current flat tariff rate is 10%.
Trump sent letters to trading partners this week, announcing that the new tariffs would take effect on August 1 if they could not negotiate more favorable terms. He is expected to send letters to European Union member states soon.
Trump sent the first batch of tariff letters to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, on July 7, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. He also said he would send more similar letters this week.
Minutes from the Fed's June 17-18 meeting showed that only a "few" Fed officials thought a rate cut was possible as early as this month, while most preferred to hold off until later in the year due to inflation concerns caused by Trump's tariffs.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. The next policy meeting is scheduled for July 29-30.
Markets will focus on progress in Trump's tariff negotiations, key US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials later in the day for fresh trading direction for gold prices.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has had 2 sessions of recovery from the area around the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, but the temporary upside momentum is still limited and does not qualify for a new bullish cycle.
In the short term, the EMA21 with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement will act as the nearest resistance, if gold takes the price action to break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it will qualify for a new bullish cycle with the target then being around $3,400 in the short term, more so than $3,430.
On the other hand, with the current neutral trend, once gold is sold below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level again, it will have conditions to decline, and the target then is around 3,246 USD in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The RSI index is hovering around 50, also showing that the market sentiment is still hesitant to have a specific direction.
During the day, the sideways trend of gold prices will be noticed by the following positions.
Support: 3,300 - 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3388 - 3386⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3392
→Take Profit 1 3380
↨
→Take Profit 2 3372
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3296 - 3298⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3292
→Take Profit 1 3304
↨
→Take Profit 2 3310
ZRX Just Broke Out… But Is It a Bull Trap Before a Collapse?Yello Paradisers did you catch that breakout from the falling wedge, or are you about to get faked out like the rest?
💎#ZRX/USDT has finally broken out of its descending resistance after weeks of compression. While this is a promising signal, this move alone is not enough. What really matters now is how price behaves on the retest. We're watching closely for a pullback either into the previous wedge resistance or directly into the key demand zone between $0.205 and $0.215. That area needs to hold if the bulls want to keep momentum on their side.
💎The structure remains valid as long as we stay above the $0.180 level. A break below that zone would completely invalidate this bullish setup and open the door to a deeper drop. On the upside, if buyers step in with volume, the path toward $0.260 and possibly $0.300 becomes much more realistic.
💎This is not the moment to chase. Let retail traders jump in too early our job is to position smartly, not emotionally. Watch the retest, measure the reaction, and act only when the market confirms.
This is where most retail traders get trapped, they chase the move too late or panic-sell too early. Don’t be that trader. Stay focused. Be precise.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
CELO About to Explode or Fakeout Incoming?Yello, Paradisers! Is this the breakout we’ve been patiently waiting for or just another trap to liquidate late buyers?
💎After weeks of grinding lower inside a clear descending channel, #CELO/USDT has finally broken out to the upside. That breakout alone isn’t enough, but it’s a critical first signal that sellers are losing control. Price is now pushing right into the key resistance zone at $0.29–$0.30, and what happens here will decide the next major move.
💎If momentum holds and price reclaims this level with conviction, we could see an explosive move toward $0.34 and potentially even the stronger resistance zones at $0.41 and $0.47 in the coming weeks. But if buyers fail to defend this push, and price rolls over, then the bullish setup quickly falls apart.
💎What gives us more confidence? The support zone at $0.24–$0.25 held beautifully buyers stepped in hard, and the market reversed cleanly from there. But if #CELO drops back below $0.22, the setup is invalidated and we'll wait patiently again for the next high-probability entry.
This is where most retail traders get trapped, they chase the move too late or panic-sell too early. Don’t be that trader. Stay focused. Be precise.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
XAG/USD (Silver) - Triangle Breakout (09.07.2025)The XAG/USD (Silver) pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3749
2nd Resistance – 3781
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Gold is fluctuating. Can it break through?Since the price of gold rose to 3500 on April 22 and encountered resistance and fell back, it has shown a triangular convergence and fluctuation trend so far. From the short-term trend, after the decline adjustment on Tuesday, it bottomed out and rebounded on Wednesday to close with a positive line, and on Thursday it completed the shock consolidation with a small positive line. The current moving average system is in an intertwined state, and the short-term market tends to fluctuate.
Today, we need to pay attention to the resistance of the 3340-3345 range. This position is a high point concentration area that has suppressed the upward movement of gold prices many times in the early stage. If the gold price breaks through this range, the bullish trend is expected to continue.
From the current trend, after the gold price bottomed out and rebounded, it formed a short-term support at 3310. Secondly, we need to pay attention to the support strength near the low point of 3282 on Tuesday. In terms of operation, it is still necessary to operate around the range.
Operation strategy:
Short when the price rebounds to around 3345, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3320-3300
Long when the price falls back to around 3310, stop loss at 3300, profit range 3320-3340