XAUUSD SELLWe had a market structure shift (MSS) followed by a break of structure (BOS), then a second BOS that triggered a retracement into the Fibonacci Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) level, forming a swing high — an ideal setup to go short.
Fundamental Analysis
US500 trending higher as the US earnings season gains momentum. Fundamental
US500 is pushing higher as the US 2nd quarter earnings season gains momentum under President Trump's second administration amidst tariffs. Big tech earnings will have a significant impact on the index price action.
Technical
Bullish momentum is gaining as the uptrend remains strong. The RSI is approaching the overbought region however a break above the 6,333 key resistance level sees the index trading at all time highs with resistance levels at 6,475 and 6,670. A move below 6,230 sees a possible move towards supports at 6,150, 6,080 and subsequently 6,000.
by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
07/07/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $110,529.95
Last weeks low: $105,108.81
Midpoint: $107,819.38
The "Big Beautiful Bill" was signed into law last week on the 4th July, a huge event in the financial world and undoubtedly the world of crypto. The debt ceiling is now instantly raised by $5T making risk-on assets even more appealing than ever, incoming demand shock will likely help BTC but also the struggling altcoin market as well.
Last week the BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $294m. This takes the total 30-day inflows to nearly 50K BTC and this is before the big beautiful bill was passed. PA wise, BTC is still struggling to break the $110k level and flip ATH, however the consolidation just under ATH with increasingly shallow pullbacks suggests a run at the highs is in the near future IMO.
For this week US CPI & PPI data are the important release for the week. It's hard to tell if the data releases will actually provide any volatility this time around, they usually do but the FEDs refusal to act has made the last few CPIs very flat in terms of volatility for BTC.
Key battleground for me this week would be the midpoint, clearly last week provided good support, however a larger area of inefficiency rest just under that it so there is a natural pull for price to revisit those areas. Could be a choppy week once again...
Good luck this week everybody!
Symplegades Part II – Ethereum at the Threshold of Breakout or B⚔️🌉 Symplegades Part II – Ethereum at the Threshold of Breakout or Breakdown 💥🧭
In the previous post, we explored Ethereum’s mythical challenge — the Symplegades, or Clashing Rocks. That post resonated, and now… here comes Part II.
ETH is once again caught in a narrowing passage, this time defined by:
📌 $2,805 – $2,911 resistance overhead
📌 $2,616 – $2,565 support just below
💡 Pectra could be the fuel to break out — or just another wave that crashes on the rocks. The chart shows the potential for both:
➡️ A clean breakout could spark a move to “Destination 1” (~$4.8K)
⚠️ A rejection here might drag us back under $2.6K, even toward $2.1K and $1.8K zones
The Pectra breakout box is clear. But the market won’t hand it to us easily. It rarely does.
🧠 With Vitalik still “asleep,” it’s a tight spot. But if this move gathers momentum? We could be at the very start of Ethereum’s next wave.
📽️ The full video posted earlier today dives into this thesis and why macro + micro signals are conflicting but critical.
📊 Stay tuned — Bitcoin post is up next.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Bitcoin Breaks Out – The Final Test Has Begun 🚀🔥 Bitcoin Breaks Out – The Final Test Has Begun 💥📈
Boom! The breakout is here. After days of grinding under resistance, BTC has finally burst out of the channel — and all eyes are now on the monster level at $114,900.
📊 We spoke about this level again and again — the third macro test, the “HUGE-est Level EVER,” the battleground between Ultimate FOMO and End of Cycle.
⚠️ This breakout could lead to:
✔️ Acceleration to retest 114,900
✔️ A potential 3rd attempt to break the golden structure
✔️ Euphoria or exhaustion — no middle ground
🧠 Smart traders will remember:
– 8+ divergences still exist on higher timeframes
– The risk of failed breakout traps is high
– But this is what we’ve been waiting for: confirmation + continuation
🎯 If momentum holds, we may be on our way to test the upper macro structure. This is not the time to hesitate — it’s time to manage risk like a pro and track the flow.
💡 Catch up on the setup:
👉 Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 8
👉 July 10th Market Outlook – Uncharted Waters
🗣️ It’s not about prediction — it’s about preparation.
We were ready. Are you?
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 8 –(Major Chart Update')First of all guys – I made the video! 🎥🔥 Watch the full breakdown before diving into the details below.
It explains everything visually, level by level. Don't miss it.
Now let’s get into the core of the analysis...
🚀📊 Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 8 – The Final Test is Near! 🔥🔍
Welcome to Part 8 of “Where Can Bitcoin Go?” – the update of this long-running series. Since mid-2023, not much has changed in the structure. That’s the power of solid technical analysis – levels don’t lie.
🟨 The Setup
Bitcoin is now approaching a third test of a major structural resistance. If you’ve followed my 1-2-3 strategy, you know this is where decisions are made:
✅ Test 1: Rejection
✅ Test 2: Rejection
⏳ Test 3: Now pending… the TERMINAL and DECISIVE 'Breakout or Rejection', and this will change everything.
But here’s the deeper layer:
We’re not just testing one sequence. We now have two separate sets of 1-2 rejections —
🔹 One set from 2021 (the Red 1 and 2)
🔹 And a recent one in 2025 (the white 1 and 2)
This upcoming test is the third rejection attempt on both timeframes, making it a rare and extremely significant technical moment.
📐 Price is now near a critical ascending trendline around $115K–$116K, which has been the gatekeeper to parabolic moves in previous cycles.
🔄 Based on historical halving cycles:
548 days post-halving in 2016 → ATH 2017
565 days post-halving in 2020 → ATH 2021
Halving #4 was in April 2024 → 👀 Could this point to a new ATH by end of 2025?
📊 Probabilities
🔹 83% chance we see the third test before year-end
🔹 57% chance of breakout
🔻 43% chance of rejection
⚠️ And here’s the reality check:
If we see that breakout — the market unleashes itself. We’re talking major pumps, potential follow-through moves, and price discovery into untouched zones like $188K, $197K, and beyond.
But... if we get rejected, it won’t be pretty. We could retest major levels like $66K or worse, and lose momentum that took years to build.
And unfortunately — this isn’t like 18K, or 40K, or even the 79K retest.
Things are much more complicated now.
The sentiment, the structure, the risk profile — they’ve all evolved. We cannot afford to have the same blind bullishness we had in those earlier phases. This is a mature part of the cycle, and it demands discipline over emotion.
💬 What’s your take?
Will Bitcoin finally break through?
Is this just another fakeout in disguise?
Are you feeling this same tension in the market?
Let’s talk structure. Let’s talk price. Let’s talk reality.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
July 10th Market Outlook –Charted Waters & Uncertain Momentum🗓️📊 July 10th Market Outlook – Charted Waters & Uncertain Momentum 🌊⚠️
Today’s breakdown is a reality check for traders navigating a market full of setups but short on clarity. Resistance is stacking across the board, but that doesn’t mean we can’t break through — it just means we need to stay sharp and keep our charts close.
🔎 Highlights from the 19-minute video:
Bitcoin is approaching a third and crucial resistance test. A breakout could trigger ultra-FOMO, but failure here could send us lower.
Ethereum is in a pressure zone — the "Symplegades" setup from Greek mythology reflects today’s narrow trading path.
Bitcoin Dominance is clinging to support — if it breaks, altseason could be on. If it holds, alts may stay sidelined.
NASDAQ & Nvidia have delivered massive runs, but signs of exhaustion and reversal risk are showing.
Dollar Index (DXY) showing a Golden Cross, but unresolved rate expectations could catch markets off guard.
💬 I also speak candidly about market manipulation, being someone else’s exit liquidity, and why we might be heading toward a formative trap before any true breakout.
🎥 Watch the full video to catch all the details — from long-term setups to real-time chart reactions.
📌 Stay tuned for detailed updates today on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Dominance, NASDAQ and more.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Bitcoin Dominance Rebounds – Bad News for Altcoins??📊⚠️ Bitcoin Dominance Rebounds – Bad News for Altcoins? 🧨💣
Today’s chart says it clearly: Bitcoin Dominance is bouncing off support at the edge of its ascending channel. This rebound zone around 64.58–64.64% has been critical — and the move up confirms it’s holding… for now.
❗ With Bitcoin itself facing heavy resistance, this dominance bounce is not good news for altcoins. In fact, it's a classic setup for capital rotating into BTC and out of alts — not the other way around.
📌 Chart Breakdown:
Biggest alt bull runs have started when BTC.D failed here — not when it rebounded
Breakout above 71.3% = serious risk of altcoin extinction
Breakdown below 62.3% = green light for altseason
🧠 As I’ve written on the chart: the END of alts comes not just from price — but from meme culture, utility decay, and market maker manipulation. That zone? 97% BTC.D. We’re not there, but we’re not heading toward freedom yet either.
🎥 Want to see how this fits into the full market picture? Watch the July 10th macro update:
👉 July 10th Market Outlook – Uncharted Waters, Uncertain Momentum
The market’s pressure is rising.
No good news from BTC.D today.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Wise Is Poised To Capture A Multi-Trillion Dollar OpportunityA few months back, we highlighted key investment trends for the next decade—among them, cross-border finance and fintech disruption. Now, Wise plc OTC:WIZEY , a British fintech leader, is showing strong alignment with both themes, and it may soon benefit from even more investor attention as it plans to move its listing from the UK to the U.S.
🌍 What Wise Does
Wise offers low-cost, tech-driven cross-border payment services. Rather than sending money physically across borders, it uses a network of local money transfer entities to settle transactions locally. This allows the company to avoid high bank fees and offer fast, affordable currency exchanges. Currently, 65% of its international payments are settled instantly, and 95% are completed within 24 hours.
Its infrastructure, built over the past decade, gives Wise a strong moat—few competitors can replicate its speed and pricing. The company also offers personal and business multi-currency accounts, a debit card, and an investing feature called "Wise Assets." Additionally, Wise licenses its payment rails to institutions like Morgan Stanley and Monzo, creating another layer of growth potential.
📈 Financials & Growth
Wise has seen explosive growth:
- Revenue has more than tripled since 2021.
- Profits are up 7.2x during the same period.
- Active users, transfers, and customer balances are all climbing steadily.
Management expects mid-teens growth in both revenue and profits, though we see this as conservative given Wise’s network effects.
💰 Valuation & U.S. Relisting Potential
Currently valued at ~$17.8 billion with a P/E of ~24.7x, Wise trades more cheaply than many U.S. fintech peers. If EBIT projections hold—$900M in 2026 and $1.1B in 2027—the multiple could compress to ~17x, making it even more attractive.
Relisting in the U.S. could spark multiple expansion as it gains visibility and liquidity among U.S. investors. Wise trades at about 5x sales today; even a modest bump closer to 10x could signal major upside.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
Low U.S. liquidity: Shares currently trade over-the-counter under WIZEY, which comes with low volume and potential slippage.
Emerging competitors: Rivals like Remitly (RELY) are growing.
Security risks: Any breaches, like the one it faced years ago, could damage trust.
✅ Final Take
Wise stands out as a rare combination of profitability, growth, and competitive edge in a massive, underpenetrated market. With a planned U.S. relisting and strong financials, it’s well-positioned for continued upside.
Rating: Strong Buy
Gold royaltyI am following long diagonal trend line in the chart of GROY. There is some divergence in RSI, and support in the distance from MA. A company with good value and probable triple bottom.
With two new producing royalties from this year growth looks inevitable.
Do your own research!
ServiceNow Is Our Top Tech Compounder PickIn a tech world often driven by hype and speculation, ServiceNow NYSE:NOW stands out as a reliable growth engine—a true compounder. Unlike flashier tech names, ServiceNow delivers steady revenue growth and expanding margins, all while offering mission-critical software to businesses.
📈 What’s a Compounder, Anyway?
Compounders are companies that grow steadily over time by reinvesting profits at high returns. They may not make headlines, but they consistently outperform by:
- Growing demand for their shares
- Reducing share supply (or keeping dilution low)
These are the businesses long-term investors love: predictable, resilient, and scalable.
🧩 Why ServiceNow Fits the Bill
ServiceNow has quietly built a powerful B2B software business, helping organizations streamline operations. Here’s why it qualifies as a compounder:
Strong Revenue Growth: From $3.3B in 2020 to $11.4B today
Rapid Profit Growth: Net income jumped from $34M to $1.54B in the same period
Operating Leverage: Margins have grown from 3.4% to 13.2%, thanks to stable 80%+ gross margins and low incremental costs
Recurring subscription revenue is rising fast—up 20% YoY—driven by the mission-critical nature of its software and increasing AI capabilities.
💸 The Valuation Case
Although many quant models give NOW a weak grade for valuation, context matters. Historically, the stock is trading in the middle of its typical range—about 18x sales and 58x free cash flow.
Looking ahead:
Analysts forecast 20% annual EPS growth through 2027
That implies a forward P/E of 42x, with potential to drop further as margins expand
Combine that with AI-powered upselling and potential share buybacks, and NOW’s valuation starts to look compelling.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
Premium Price Tag: If markets decline, richly valued stocks like NOW could fall harder
Tough Competition: Rivals like Salesforce and Palantir are aggressively chasing similar markets
✅ Bottom Line
ServiceNow may not be flashy, but its financial performance, recurring revenue model, and growth runway make it a solid long-term bet. If management reins in share dilution and continues margin expansion, this stock could deliver serious compounding over the next decade.
Rating: Buy
BTC-USDT Analysis for the Past 24 HoursOver the past 24 hours, BTC showed excellent price action — I personally entered a long position at 110,000 and captured a clean +2.59% move, locking in profits without being greedy.
🚀 Price Action
Bitcoin climbed confidently from around 109,485 to 113,472 USDT — a gain of roughly 3.6%. The strongest impulse came between 00:00 and 01:00, with the candle surging from 111,341 to 113,685. It was a sharp and confident move with no signs of weakness.
📊 Market Observations
• Trading volume significantly increased during the night, especially from 03:00 to 01:00 — typical behavior during an aggressive short squeeze.
• Daily high: 113,757 USDT; low: 109,443.
• Technically, the market is continuing its uptrend after holding the key support level at 105,200 USDT last week.
📰 Fundamental Signals
• Kimchi premium is negative (-0.69%) — Korean investors seem to be in risk-off mode.
• Upbit listed BABY BTC, and activity in altcoins is picking up.
• Institutions are still cautious — even after BTC broke above 109,700, there’s no strong bullish sentiment from their side.
📌 My Take
The rally is strong, but not euphoric. There’s clear interest in BTC, and volume confirms the trend’s strength. However, the ETF flows and ongoing USDT discount in China signal the need for caution. Now is the time to avoid greed, take partial profits, and closely monitor how the market reacts to upcoming resistance levels.
GBPUSD Short idea! Yes, we're bullish on the Daily timeframe. This is a continuation of the 4H bearish pullback. For me, we're not far enough into the discount leg of the daily swing. I'd like to see some of those hefty imbalances get filled first.
Risky, given that we've only wicked that recent 4H swing low, so waiting for 15m confirmation within that 1H extreme OB. Targeting the 4H swing low for a 2.5RR.
We could switch up, and rally up now, but the DXY is showing some more potential upside strength in the short term. So, this aligns well with my notion of more GBP downside, ahead of the next rally up!
Continuation of the Multi-Decade DowntrendWith the US tariff trade wars about to commence, I feel that many investors will once again flock to the venerable Swiss Franc as a safer asset.
USDCAD Swing ShortJust set and forget. Trump's goal is for a weak Dollar to balance the trade deficit.
FIL 1D – Triple Bottom, Ready for Lift-offTriple bottom confirmed at ~$2.20 — strong structural base.
Price testing neckline near $2.47 with rising momentum.
MACD curling for bullish cross; histogram momentum diverging.
RSI pushing above 50 — strength rebuilding.
EMA50 flattening, EMA100 compressing = volatility coil.
Asymmetric move potential: small risk, large upside.
Smart money accumulates quietly before breakout.
Quant outlook: structurally bullish with risk-defined edge.
Opportunities Arise from Dollar WeaknessSince the dollar peaked in 2022, it has declined by 24%.
Such a decline may not seem significant for a stock, it’s a different story when it comes to currencies, especially a reserve currency for USD. US purchasing power has dropped by a quarter, meaning they will now have to pay 24% more for imports from EU.
However, the decline in the USD also presents opportunities in other markets.
Mirco EUR/USD Futures
Ticker: M6E
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0001 per euro = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Crude oil under pressure after OPEC+WTI Crude oil had rejected the 20-moving average area, having reversed off the $68 price area after the OPEC+ announcement about the upcoming production increase. The short-term energy outlook forecast from eia.org had lowered the expected fair price for CL futures based on supply and demand estimation for 2025 - the average price is projected around $60 with a possibility to drive lower.
COT reports show the increasing short position for commercial traders, which had almost reached the new bottom - a potential short signal for the oil.
Given the weak sentiment (we’ve seen the massive drop of oil futures after the resolution of Israel-Iran situation) and overall downtrend, we can project the downside move as shown at the chart.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own reserch and never forget to manage your risk!
Target will hit my Targets. They are beloved by the people!Target has been re structuring there entire business after DEI was taken away.
I think they realized that going down that path is not profitable and would bankrupt them quickly if they continued.
They boosted security measures and also strengthened there online store a lot.
Target #1: $116
Target #2: $120
Never thought I'd be bullish WD-40 LMAOAll indicators such as RSI, descending channel pattern and MACD combined with options exposure make me believe earnings will be good in the stock prices eyes.
IWM and small cap stocks are really starting to pop off and nothing is more American then WD-40!!!
Target #1 - $240
Target #2 - $250
Repeated cycle, timing is keyMarket fluctuations are oscillating about 70% of the time, and only about 30% of the time are unilateral upward or downward, so accumulating small victories into big victories is the magic weapon for long-term success. What we need to do is to plan our positions well, and make this investment with a plan, direction, and guidance. A good trader will make your investment journey smoother. How to operate in a volatile market? The ancients said: Do not do good things because they are small, and do not do evil things because they are small. If we move it to financial management, it can be understood as: Don't be too greedy, enter the market in batches. When entering the market and covering positions, the position should be small. Although the profit is less, accumulating small victories into big victories is the key to success. The investment philosophy is composed of the investor's psychology, philosophy, motivation, and technical level. It mainly includes: stability, patience, independent thinking, discipline, trend, etc.
Judging from the current trend of gold, in the 4H cycle, it has touched 3330 many times under pressure, and the K-line has continuously closed with upper shadows, which is quite similar to yesterday's rhythm. So we must first look at the strength of the decline. The support below is at 3314 and 3306. In terms of operation, it should be treated as mainly long and auxiliary short. The upper pressure still focuses on the gains and losses of 3330.
Japan PPI slips to 10-month lowThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.45, up 0.10% on the day.
Japan's Producer Price Index rose 2.9% y/y in June, down from an upwardly revised 3.3% in May and matching the consensus. This marked the lowest increase since August 2024. On a monthly basis, PPI fell 0.2%, a second straight decline after a 0.1% decline in May.
The PPI report signals that underlying inflation pressures are dropping at the producer level, which could delay the BoJ's plans to hike rates and normalize policy. The BoJ has been in a wait-and-see stance since it raised rates in January, exercising caution in a turbulent economic environment. The Bank of Japan held rates in June and meets next on July 31.
The FOMC minutes indicated a broad consensus that the Fed will deliver additional rate cuts this year. The pace of those cuts, however, is up for debate. Some members favored cutting as soon as the July meeting, while others were more cautious and wanted to see where inflation and employment were headed. President Trump's tariffs have not boosted inflation so far, but the tariff effect on inflation could be felt in the following months and the Fed remains cautious. Fed Chair Powell has stuck to his guns, pushing back against persistent calls from President Trump to lower rates.
Fed policymakers are keeping a close eye on the US labor market, which has softened but not deteriorated. Earlier, unemployment claims dropped to 227 thousand, down from a revised 232 thousand in the previous release and below the consensus of 235 thousand.
