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BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann Did you pocket the 12k breakout? Cheers! I will be on vacation first week of November and might not get around to publishing the next weekly overview. So do consider the analysis here for the coming two weeks. As we are approaching the long established 13.5-14k resistance (much stronger than 12k), the question now becomes, is this the temporary top or will this resistance send us back to the land of doom. Our take is the former. Fundamentals are still looking solid, and daily RSI, MACD, Elliot Wave are all pointing to continued bullish momentum. Most importantly, retail future mkt sentiment is nowhere close to overly bullish, which generally occurs before large corrections. For the short-term, however, we are over-extended, hitting quite a strong resistance, and w/ a short-term EW sub count finishing 5 waves soon. This means, I will be considering some profit taking and will re-enter on conservative support levels. Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: Grayscale raised $1.05 Billion in Q3 (its ATH quarter since inception). Do note, Q3 BTC price’s much higher than that of Q2. Along with on-chain proof of smart money accumulation & the 50% increase in USDT market cap since late August, there’s no doubt larger players are accumulating, and at 9k+ prices. 2. Miner action: BTC mining difficulty is now 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level (the 11%+ difficulty adjustment was made in September). 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now on the bullish side. On-chain data shows a potential cool down needed, which is consistent with the technical short-term bearish view. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still in a bull trend. Considering we are now approaching a key resistance level, a “decr. in supply” alert is likely for the next bull re-entry. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Daily chart speaking, the margin market has been on the bearish side since the drop to 10k. With longing being a much easier strategy compared to shorting, it’s much harder for the market to have a bearish sentiment compared to a bullish one (left alone the constant interest rate component). In other words, prolonged retail bullish sentiment may not turn into a bearish price action and the price may go up higher with the sentiment being more over-heated. However, prolonged retail bearish sentiment often turns into bullish price actions. We are now net neutral. Do note retail margin sentiment was net bearish, neutral, then net bearish again before breaking 6k in May 2019. 5. CME Gap: Opened gaps everywhere, but not as significant compared to the other perspectives at this point. To me, the significance of gap filling is rather short-term. After a week, even though the gap could get filled, it’s extremely difficult to trade on as it’s impossible to know when the filling event will occur. Key Technicals: 1. Resistance now at 13.5-14k. Support around 12.35k. 2. Elliot wave: see chart above. As mentioned last week, I believed in a 70/30 probability between the bullish and bearish counts. With the current development, the bearish count is completely invalidated. Can we have an alternative bearish count? Yes, we could be in a leading diagonal finishing wave 5, but there are many issues with this count. Thus, a very small likelihood. 3. RSI bullish: Daily RSI looks bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are finding support above RSI’s MAs and the 60 lvl. MA up-crossed. This is as bullish as it gets for RSI. (Be careful using bearish divergences in the coming weeks. They could keep forming with price getting higher. For scalping, at least use bearish divergences and EW together, or targeting only 0.236 retracements.) 4. MACD bullish: Daily no sign of losing strength yet. Please share your thoughts with us! =================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ===================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
32
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann Hope you are now in profit with last week’s analysis. I’m not taking profit at the current level and will wait for the market to get overly bullish before profit taking. Traders are paying premiums on the short side. This, along with such a bullish RSI, indicate a good potential of breaking the 12k level. For the week ahead, I’m expecting more side way actions. However, if we drop to 11.3k again, I’ll be buying. Keep an eye on the OKEx news. I doubt the lockdown will have any further bearish impact on BTC prices, but if the lockdown’s lifted, it could potentially be used as a bullish catalyst. Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: Grayscale raised $1.05 Billion in Q3 (its ATH quarter since inception). Do note, Q3 BTC price’s much higher than that of Q2. Along with on-chain proof of smart money accumulation & the 50% increase in USDT market cap since late August, there’s no doubt larger players are accumulating, and at 9k+ prices. 2. Miner action: BTC mining difficulty is now 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level (the 11%+ difficulty adjustment was made in September). 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment remains neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still in a bull trend. With the current development, I wouldn’t wait for the “decr. in supply” alert for bull entry. 11.3-11.5k are all good levels at this point. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Daily chart speaking, the margin market has been on the bearish side since the drop to 10k. With longing being a much easier strategy compared to shorting, it’s much harder for the market to have a bearish sentiment compared to a bullish one (left alone the constant interest rate component). In other words, prolonged retail bullish sentiment may not turn into a bearish price action and the price may go up higher with the sentiment being more over-heated. However, prolonged retail bearish sentiment often turns into bullish price actions. We are still net bearish, which means more upward momentum. This is exactly how we broke 6k in early May 2019. History always repeats itself in different shapes or forms. 1hr view: (not even close to overly bullish) 5. Global Market Impacts: Let’s be clear. If the stock market drops 10%+, BTC will go down. For most investors, the hedge for low yield environment or political uncertainty is still gold over crypto. And even though BTC may recover quicker compared to stock indexes, the initial reaction is still likely correlated at this point. So, the question becomes, “will stock indexes drop significantly in the presence of US presidential election, potential prolonged low interest rate environment due to COVID, and the heightened tensions with China?” I do think the two main factors to watch out for are the further US fiscal stimulus and the earnings season. In short, I think SPX has a high chance of correcting before the end of the year. Are you guys interested in the details? 6. CME Gap: Opened gaps everywhere, but not as significant compared to the other perspectives at this point. Key Technicals: 1. Similar as last week, short-term resistance at 11.9k. Support now at 11.3-11.5k. SL for long still at 11k. For active traders, I think some profit taking at 11.9 would work. Just be careful about short-term flags forming and re-enter on lower channel. 2. Elliot wave: see chart above. For the larger structure, I’m leaning toward the bullish count. 3. RSI bullish: Daily RSI looks bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are finding support above RSI’s MAs and the 60 lvl. MA up-crossed. This is as bullish as it gets for RSI. (Be careful using bearish divergences in the coming weeks. They could keep forming with price getting higher. For scalping, at least use bearish divergences and EW together, or targeting only 0.236 retracements.) 4. MACD neutral: Bearish for the short-term (coming 2 days). Bullish for the mid to long term. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! =================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ===================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
35
Dax daily: 29 May 2019 Bulls were facing a sad scenario yesterday as the selling pressures continued through the gap closure. The price stalled lower at the support level of 11 985. In the end, bears broke out that zone and Dax closed on its intra-day low at 11 965. Important zones Resistance: 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 41% Macroeconomic releases 09:00 CEST – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 09:55 CEST – German Unemployment Change Today’s session hypothesis Today, the price opened with pretty much the same gap size as yesterday, but in the opposite direction. The descending gap doesn’t have any strong statistics for closing, but this was very similar yesterday. As support levels, we identified zones laying around 12 922 and 11 861. These levels could have a significance in today’s price action development. If the price goes below 11 922, we estimate the retest of 11 861 with an increased probability. In the opposite scenario, our bias would only be the closure of the gap, targeting 11 965.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
EURUSD Technical analysis EURUSD on the path to re-test of 1.12. The newfound resistance range of 1.1310-1.1325 will likely be scaled in a convincing manner if the PMI's jump above 50.00, signaling a rebound in the factory activity. EURUSD Sell level 1.1320/50 Area first target 1.1260/1.1215 and finally 1.1180 area. Other side of EURUSD breakout and stable 1.1400 Area first target 1.1448 / 1.1500 and finally 1.1550 Area. Technical Level Previous Monthly High 1.1448 Previous Monthly Low 1.1176 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1307 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1296 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1275 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1254 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1229 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.132 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1345 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1366
Short
by Saleh11