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DXY 4Hour TF - July 6th, 2025DXY 7/6/2025 DXY 4hour Bearish Idea Monthly - Bearish Weekly - Bearish Dailly - Bearish 4hour - Bearish All timeframes are suggesting we are sitll very much bearish. Going into this week we can spot two scenarios that will consider DXY either bullish or bearish. Bearish Continuation - Ideally we can see price action stay below our 97.500 resistance zone which is also our 38.2% fib level. Look for price action to reject 97.500 with strong bearish conviction. This will most likely confirm a bearish dollar for the week ahead. Keep in mind, price action can push up to the 98.000 zone and still remain bearish. Reversal - This is the less likely move for the week ahead but not impossible. For us to consider DXY bullish again on the 4hour timeframe we would need to see price action push above our 98.000 resistance area with a confirmed higher low above. Look for strong bullish rejection above & off of 98.000 acting as support. This is the first step for DXY in becoming bullish again.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexLeague
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 07 - Jul 11]OANDA:XAUUSD opened the week at $3,246/oz due to low summer liquidity, easing recession fears and easing geopolitical tensions. However, they later recovered to $3,365/oz due to concerns about a possible re-escalation of the trade war, as some countries faced obstacles in negotiations with the US ahead of the July 9 tariff delay deadline. By the end of the week, prices had adjusted to $3,311/oz and closed at $3,335/oz. In addition, the US Senate has passed the OBBBA tax cut and spending bill proposed by President Donald Trump. While it helps prevent the risk of a short-term default, the bill could increase the US public debt by more than $3,000 billion over the next 10 years, putting pressure on the bond market and raising concerns about the increasing supply of government bonds while demand is weakening. However, US economic data over the weekend put downward pressure on gold. Specifically, the June employment report showed that the number of non-farm jobs (NFP) reached 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 111,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. At the same time, NFP data for April and May were also adjusted up to 158,000 and 144,000 jobs, respectively. These positive numbers almost erased the expectation that the FED would cut interest rates in July. The FED also reaffirmed its stance on maintaining the current policy due to rising inflationary pressures. Overall, gold prices are still stuck in a range, and a clearer prospect of interest rate cuts from the FED is needed to make a strong breakthrough in the near future. 📌Technically, the $3,310/oz level is now acting as an important support zone for gold prices next week. If this level is broken, prices may continue to fall further to the $3,245/oz area or even lower. On the other hand, the $3,365/oz level is a strong resistance. If gold prices break through this area, there is a high possibility that they will approach the $3,400/oz mark. However, the upward momentum may be restrained afterwards due to profit-taking pressure from investors, especially when the US-China trade negotiations are still ongoing and have not reached a final agreement. Investors tend to be cautious, waiting for clearer signals before opening new positions. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3401 - 3399⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3405 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
#202527 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Chart is still max bullish but I have no more targets above and I’m fine with this going without me. Below 22600 I will start looking for lower targets. Until then best bears can get is sideways around 23000 but we will get a big move Monday/Tuesday once we have an answer on the US-EU tariff shit show. A good start for the bears is any price below 22584. current market cycle: resumption of the bull trend but likely the final flag and we most likely will top out here around/under 23000 key levels for next week: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls obviously still in full control. 2 bear bars out of the past 9 is a strong bull trend. Until we see much bigger selling pressure, technically we can only expect higher prices. Bulls broke above the bull channel from 21000 late may and confirmed the breakout now. The issues against the bulls are also the same arguments as for them. It’s overbought, climactic and very very late in the trend. This strong selling this late is something that usually happens before we turn, Invalidation is below 22600 bear case: Just to make this clear again, bears have nothing right now. This chart is as bullish as it gets, that is why you can not look to short this yet. With that disclaimer, I also think it’s a bad buy. We are beyond overbought on many many economic indicators worsening and this trend is trying to accelerate. This is the time where weak/late bulls come around with the “this time it’s different” and "valuations don’t matter. We will again sell off big time this year but it’s stupid to trying to pick the top here. Invalidation is above 23200 (any number I write here is stupid because it’s top picking. It could easily go to 23500 given the strength of this move) short term: Neutral. No interest in buying but too early for shorts. Let’s see what the US-EU trade “talks” bring next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202527 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Clear triangle on the daily chart and mid point is 23850. Week closed at 23900. Market is in balance and I think it’s completely 50/50 for both sides where the breakout will happen. Given the tariff shit show, I would wait for it to happen and be flat until then. If they apply 10%+ tariffs on EU imports, we go down, if they postpone, we rally further. I trade only technicals but this is one of the few moments per year where news will completely determine where the markets will breakout out next. Big if. If orange face does another TACO move, momentum is strong enough for markets to keep going and squeeze further. We need a very strong daily bear bar to kill it. current market cycle: trading range - triangle key levels for next week: 23500 - 24300 (above 24300, 500 comes into play and also likely 600+) bull case: Bulls made a higher low but barely. This is a bad looking bull trend from the 23061 low and market is currently in breakout mode to decide where we go next. The 24283 high is a reasonable high to turn lower but as longs as bulls stay above 23600, there is a chance of this doing another try at 23300 and above the ugly bull channel is confirmed and higher prices are likely. Invalidation is below 23500 bear case: Bears keeping it below 24000 is good but they are not doing enough or we would have made lower lows below 23600. Everything depends on the US-EU tariffs over the next days. Technically all bullish targets are met and the 24283 was high enough to qualify as a re-test. Market is free to go down again, it just needs a catalyst. Invalidation is above 24300 short term: Neutral. I won’t gamble on the trade talk outcome but I am much more eager to sell this on bad news than to buy it on not-too-bad news. medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
BTC - Zoomed Out ScenarioAs predicted DXY has broken down a major monthly bearish trendline - currently finishing a bearish retest before further free fall. If this plays out we have 2-3 years of a weakening / correcting dollar, and a strengthening investment in assets such as Bitcoin. This means an extended bull market spanning 2-4 years on Bitcoin and equities. However - there is a mass amount of liquidity to the uber lows towards 10,000 on BTC. Market is showing manipulated intention to hit these lows by keeping the price below this bearish cross section - and that’s why bitcoin hasn’t been moving up yet. This tells me this is more likely than we all think to play out. I’m trading the following: Short - 108,200 to 35,000 Long - 35,000 to 80,000 Short - 80,000 to 10,000 Will update accordingly if the plan changes. Happy trading.
Short
by DickDandy
7
2025-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: On my weekly chart I think this W4 was too deep to be part of a strong bull trend. 24000 is a decent spot to go sideways rather than up but above 24100 means I’m likely wrong and bears could give up for 24500+. I would not look for shorts until we see better selling pressure again. The Globex spike from 23681 to 23963 was beyond weird. It’s a bull wedge but will likely break out sideways in Globex session. 50/50 for both sides I think. current market cycle: unclear. bull trend could continue but trading range is most likely key levels: 23600 - 24500 bull case: Bulls want a retest of 24500+ but they find no buyers around 24000. They tried so many times to print 24000 and today they finally did it again but they would need to stay above 23900 and go sideways until bears give up. Markets can poke at a price long enough until one sides gives up. Invalidation is below 23860. bear case: Bears need lower lows again and if they can get below 23860, many bulls could cover in fear of a bigger pullback down to 23700. As of now bears have zero arguments since we only made higher lows since Globex low but we are also barely making higher highs and if we do, they have tails above. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Completely neutral. Can go both way. US markets are overbought and once the profit taking starts, Dax won’t hold up either. Not much interest in guessing which way we go from 24000. Best to sit on hands and wait for a clear and strong signal. medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000 trade of the day: Longs since the giant Globex bull spike but had to have wide stops and scale in. Not an easy day.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
US30 Awaits NFP – Bullish Above 44,410, Volatility Expected US30 (Dow Jones) – NFP Volatility in Focus Today’s session is expected to be volatile due to the upcoming NFP report. Based on current forecasts, the outlook remains broadly positive for U.S. indices, though intraday swings are likely. Technical Outlook: As long as the price holds above 44,410, the bullish momentum remains intact, with potential upside targets at 44,750 and 44,910 A pullback toward 44,410 remains possible before any continuation higher. However, a confirmed 4H close below 44,400 would shift the short-term structure to bearish, opening the door toward the 1st support zone around 44,180. Key Levels: • Resistance: 44,750 / 44,910 / 45,090 • Support: 44,410 / 44,180 / 43,970 Stay cautious — volatility is expected to spike around the release of the jobs data.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SroshMayi
2
2025-07-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big down, big up. Clear trading range. Play it until broken. current market cycle: bull trend on higher tf but trading range on the 1h tf key levels: 22500 - 23000 bull case: Bulls want 23000. Nothing changed. Bulls buy every dip below 22670 and until that stops, we stay at the highs and chances of higher prices are greater than a deeper pullback. I have no targets above 23000 though. Invalidation is below 22500. bear case: Bears not doing enough and have to scalp out or their profits disappear. They need a strong 1h close below 22500 for more downside but for now markets are continuing to ignore every bad news and the structure is as bullish as it gets on the daily tf. Bears are barely making money, so try to look for easy longs. Invalidation is above 23200. short term: Neutral but I still expect 23000 to get hit and maybe some more squeeze above. Zero interest in shorts and longs only for scalps and small. It’s still overbought and a deeper pullback is expected over the next days. medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again. trade of the day: Longs below 22670 have been amazing since Friday.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2025-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If I had longs for 24400+ I would really doubt my position right now. Problem for the bears is, that it’s not low enough to be definitive. Only below 23600 we are making lower lows again and those can not happen in bull trends. Strong enough selling but I have my doubts that bears get follow-through tomorrow. Especially when other markets are rallying instead of selling. Above 24000 we likely see more upside but if bears are strong, they keep the market below and continue lower. current market cycle: unclear. bull trend could continue but trading range is most likely key levels: 23100 - 24500 bull case: Bulls need to stay above 23700 bad and continue higher for 24000. If they manage to break above 24k and the bear trend line, there is no reason why we can’t have another strong leg up. Until the bear channel is broken, they are not favored for anything. This could have been a retest of the daily 20ema, but only if we move strongly higher tomorrow. Invalidation is below 23600. bear case: Bears need follow-through below 23600 and close the gap to 23540. Then they have a good argument to trade down to 23100 or lower. Right now I would not short the lows because the risk of trading back up to 24000 is too big. The bear channel is clear and valid until broken. Invalidation is above 24050ish. short term: Slightly bullish that we bottom out above 23750 and trade back up to 24000 but I would only do small scalps here. Anything below 23700 would surprise me more than 24000. medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000 trade of the day: Short from EU open.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
How to Trade Double Tops & Bottoms in TradingViewLearn how to identify, validate, and trade double top and double bottom reversal patterns using TradingView's charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures. Understanding these classic chart formations can help you spot potential trend reversals and capitalize on contrarian trading opportunities in the futures markets. What You'll Learn: • Understanding contrarian vs. continuation trading strategies and when to use each approach • The psychology behind buying low and selling high through reversal pattern trading • How to identify double top and double bottom formations on any timeframe • Key characteristics of valid double tops and bottoms, including volume confirmation • Using TradingView's XABCD pattern tool to validate potential double top/bottom setups • Real-world example analysis using crude oil futures charts • Risk management techniques for trading reversal patterns • How to calculate appropriate entry points, stop losses, and profit targets • Setting up 1:1 risk-reward ratios for mathematical trading edge • Understanding win rate requirements for profitable pattern trading • How double bottom patterns work as the inverse of double top formations This tutorial may benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts interested in contrarian trading strategies and reversal pattern recognition. The concepts covered could help you identify potential turning points in market trends and develop systematic approaches to trading these classic chart formations. Visit Optimus Futures to learn more about trading futures with TradingView: optimusfutures.com/Platforms/TradingView.php Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by OptimusFutures
9
2025-06-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Closing this high at the end of the month is as bullish as it gets. We are close to 23000 that I expect it to get hit. You never know where the top will be, so don’t try to pick it. Market is bullish and bullish only. Even if we print -2% tomorrow, there was no setup and no pattern for you to trade it on. It would be a huge bear surprise and you should never worry about them. Look for the path of least resistance and that is still long. At least for scalps. Bull channel is also still valid until clearly broken, which means a strong print below 22700 would do. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 22600 - 23000 bull case: Bulls want 23000. Market is overbought but that does not matter if we can’t get more selling pressure. Long the pullbacks until it stops working. I can see this going to 23500 but it’s a rough guess and you should not trade based on those. Invalidation is below 22200. bear case: Bears got nothing. Don’t look for shorts. Daily close below 22600, then we can start thinking about lower prices again. I still expect this breakout to fail but as of now, we are only going up. Invalidation is above 23500. short term: Neutral but I will only scalp long until we see much much bigger selling pressure. 23000 is the obvious target and bears need something below 23700. medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again. trade of the day: Any long around the high of last week (22823) has been profitable. It was a tight trading range but with a heavy bullish bias going in to today, long scalps were the obvious choice.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
3
WIF ANALYSIS🔮 #WIF Analysis - Update 🚀🚀 💲 We can see that there is a formation of Falling Wedge Wedge Pattern in #WIF and we can see a bullish movement after a good breakout. Before that we would see a little retest and and then a bullish movement. 💸Current Price -- $0.848 📈Target Price  --  $1.049 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked crucial levels in the chart . We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. 🚀💸 #WIF  #Cryptocurrency #Breakout #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 30 - Jul 04]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply from an opening price of $3,392/oz to a low of $3,255/oz and closed at $3,274/oz. The reason was that Israel and Iran had officially ceased fire, although negotiations with the US remained difficult. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed that there was no rush to cut interest rates due to high inflation risks. In addition, summer is a period of weak demand for physical gold, continuing to put pressure on gold prices. In addition, summer is typically the low season for physical gold demand, which could continue to weigh on gold prices. In addition to the seasonal lull in trading that has affected the gold market, improving economic sentiment as the Trump administration has said there is progress in trade agreements, especially the framework agreement on trade with China, will also continue to negatively impact gold prices next week. Thus, gold prices next week may continue to be under downward pressure, but the decline may not be too large as gold prices next week are still supported by some fundamental factors. This week, the US will release the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and the unemployment rate for June. According to forecasts, NFP may reach 120,000 jobs. If NFP increases higher than expected, the FED will continue to delay cutting interest rates, negatively affecting gold prices next week. On the contrary, if NFP drops sharply below 100,000 jobs, it will increase the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates, helping gold prices rise again next week, but not too strongly. 📌Technically, the gold price closed below $3,300/oz this week, which could pave the way for a drop to $3,200/oz next week, or below that to $3,120/oz. If the gold price rebounds above $3,300/oz next week, it could trigger a recovery to $3,330-$3,360/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,246 – 3,228USD Resistance: 3,292 – 3,300USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3178 - 3180⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3174
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Monday was neutral and the warning to bears that the markets do not care about the risk at hand. Tuesday’s gap up then was the sign of bull strength and defending the Globex gap was the sure sign we are going higher. Thursday was the bears giving up and since we have a measured move target up to 24700. I have drawn my 5-wave thesis on the chart, which I think is currently the most likely outcome. All depends if the US markets continue the squeeze as well. There is always the possibility that Friday marked the highs but that is very low and in the absence of bear bars, we can only assume higher prices. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 23500 - 25000 bull case: Bulls made the bears give up on Thursday and since we have been going only up. The obvious next targets are 24500 and then 25000. As of now, there is absolutely no reason to assume we reverse from here and print lower lows again. Bulls took over control of the market again and we have two clear legs up, with a third one we may do a new ath but as always, every pattern can fail. Invalidation is below 23500 bear case: Not much. A pullback is expected but so is the third leg up for W5 and everything below 23500 would be a huge bear surprise and cut this short. As of now I don’t think this chart can lead you to looking for shorts. We would need a break of two bull trend lines and prices below 23500 before you should think bearish again. Invalidation is above 24400 short term: Bearish was the obvious read last weekend and when bears failed on Monday, it set the stage for an explosive move to the upside. That can always happen since we are in a profession where you play odds. medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Similar to dax and for most other markets. Cash index made a new ath and broke strongly above the trading range. This is W5 which I thought was cut short but I guess not. It’s most likely the end of the trend since the trading range went on for about 6 weeks, which in this case was likely the final flag. Futures could now aim to print 23000 and touch the bull trend line which began in 2021 and went though the ath from 2024-12. current market cycle: resumption of the bull trend but likely the final flag and we most likely will top out here around/under 23000 key levels for next week: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls printed 5 consecutive bull bars. They are in full control and could pump it to 23000. Purely based on momentum and squeezing shorts. Got nothing else for the bulls. Invalidation is below 21500 bear case: Bears gave up on Monday and I doubt they want to fight this until we hit the bull trend line or 23000. Most bears will wait for a clear topping sign that bulls are beginning to take bigger profits before they think about shorts. As of now, bears have zero arguments on their side. Only a daily close below 22300 would confirm this bull trap and fake breakout above the bull channel and then we could test down to 21900ish but for now I think it’s most likely we go higher. Invalidation is above 23100 short term: Neutral. Will only scalp longs on huge momentum and I will only start thinking about shorts once we break below 22300 again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
AUDUSD 4hour TF - June 29th, 2025AUDUSD 4hour Neutral idea Monthly - Bearish Weekly - Bearish Dailly - Bullish 4hour - Bullish AU has been in this subtle bullish channel since late April 2025, just above major monthly support at 0.63250 area. We also have some conflicting trends and we need to see some conviction before we can comfortably follow price action. We do have some alignment with a bearish USD but at the moment we have two options: Bullish Continuation - This is the most likely scenario based on what we’re seeing and where price action is. Ideally, we see some rejection from our 4hour 0.65000 support area followed by bullish conviction. If this happens look for price action to touch or break the top of this channel and continue bullish for the week ahead. Reversal back into channel - If we fail to see bullish presence we could see price action fall back into the channel. The key indication of this would be a break below our 0.65000 support area followed by a retest and bearish conviction.
by ForexLeague
2
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. #mcl1 - wti crude oil futures comment: Yeah I don’t know about this one. Your guess is as good as mine. I could even see this touching 63 before going higher again. Most erratic and extreme price action the past 2 weeks, so maybe wait a bit before jumping the train here. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 63 - 80 bull case: Bulls don’t have much. They could not close one decent bar at the high since 2025-06-11 and despite all the bull spikes, we only sold afterwards and are back below 65 where the extreme breakout happened. Best guess here is that we stay above 63 and go sideways. Sideways up to where? No idea. Could be 68, could be 70. Invalidation is below 63 bear case: Too extreme. Both sides have to take quick profits or the next spike will take them away again. So most likely sideways in a range until a newsbomb hit again. Range could be 63 - 68. Invalidation is above 79 short term: Neutral. Not touching this unless someone threatens me with a gun. medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: Let’s leave this as “todo” for now. No read on this and I won’t make stuff up just to post something.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Day and I hope you are well. #btcusd - bitcoin comment: Neutral since bears fumbled it again. Range is clear, don’t have much else to say about this. Bulls want 113k+ and bears need a strong daily close below 100k for more downside. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 100k - 115k bull case: Bulls are still hopeful, that’s why we are still above 110k but the next touch could break it and I doubt many will hold long or scale into new ones there. Best bulls can get right now is to go sideways for longer and stay above 100k. I mean… Staying above 100k is as bullish as it get’s if you be honest. Same as last week since nothing has changed for the bulls. Trading range since mid May. Invalidation is a strong daily close below 100k bear case: Bears fumbled it again. Strong daily close below 100k or we won’t go lower. Right now odds favor the bears to go down from 107k to 100k but need more selling pressure. Invalidation is above 110k short term: As neutral as can be. medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-29: Strong daily close below 100k will be the confirmation for more downside. First target below 100k is 97k the breakout retest and after that is the 50% retracement around 93k. I have no bullish for the next weeks/months. Once the gap to 97k closes we are likely in a bear trend again and I expect to hit at least 85k over the summer.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2
DXY 4hour TF - June 29th, 2025DXY 6/29/25 DXY Bearish Idea All significant timeframes (monthly,weekly,daily 4hr) appear bearish for now. Last week on June 25th, 2025 we saw price action break through our 98.000 zone confirming more bearish movement. This week we have two likely options that we will wait for confirmation on. Bearish Continuation - Ideally we keep with the trend and look for lower highs below 98.000 for further confirmation. If we can spot rejection from this zone it is likely we will see DXY continue bearish for the week ahead. Reversal - This is less likely but still possible. Price action could punch back through the 98.000 resistance and begin retesting previous highs. If this happens look for candlestick confirmation above 98.000 and expect a more bullish DXY for the week ahead.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexLeague
GOLD recovers, capped by $3,350, trend viewOANDA:XAUUSD recovered then weakened as it failed to break above $3,350, supported by a weaker dollar and market uncertainty sparked by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump could replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in September or October. The reports raised concerns about the future independence of the Federal Reserve, boosting demand for safe-haven gold. On Wednesday, Trump called Powell “terrible” and said he was considering three or four candidates to replace him. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was even considering announcing a potential successor as early as September or October. The current market narrative is that once Trump nominates a new Fed chair, market expectations will tend to favor a more “dovish” Fed. This could lead to a weaker US dollar, higher long-term US Treasury yields and higher stock prices. Forexlive points out that this story may be more an emotional reaction than a result of objective and rational thinking. The policy of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is decided not only by the Fed Chairman but also by a majority vote of the 12 voting members (including 7 directors and 5 regional Fed presidents). The Fed Chairman does have a lot of influence, but he does not have absolute control over monetary policy. The Fed was originally designed to be independent of political pressure. Moreover, even if Trump nominates the next chairman, there is no guarantee that this will automatically lead to a rate cut. In fact, Powell was also nominated by Trump, but his monetary policy decisions are still based on professional judgment rather than serving Trump's wishes. So, in the worst case, the market could face policy uncertainty as differences between FOMC members increase and more disagreements emerge. Currently, there are fewer moderate members on the committee, while neutral or hawkish members dominate. Markets are now focused on personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data due later today (Friday) for further clues on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. On the geopolitical front, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be in place on Wednesday after Trump hailed a swift end to the 12-day conflict at the NATO summit and said he would seek a commitment from Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions in talks next week. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold recovered and reached the initial target at 3,350 USD, the nearest resistance is also the price point of the EMA21 noted for readers in the previous publication. However, the recovery momentum is currently weakening, specifically at the time of writing, the gold price is falling below 3,320 USD. Gold falling below 3,320 USD provides conditions for a possible decline with the next target around 3,302 - 3,300 USD, which is the area of ​​​​the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement confluence with the lower edge of the price channel. In terms of momentum, the RSI is heading down and breaking below 50, which should be considered an initial bearish signal. Overall, gold does not have a clear long-term trend as the uptrend is still the main trend, while the momentum is showing signs of decline. But personally, I am still leaning towards the uptrend, and continue to look for positions to buy. Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,302 – 3,300 USD Resistance: 3,320 – 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3272 - 3274⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3268 →Take Profit 1 3280 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3286
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2