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XBT Dancing the Contango and Farewell to XBTU19 data?This idea is to expand on my recent observations while trading Basis (spread) of futures contracts for XBT, and how recently Contango and Backwardation have been a good timing indicator for XBTUSD. For more detailed explanation, please check out my indicator script the XBT Contango Calculator in related link. Typically I have noticed that Futures premium/discount primarily flow along with price movements. For example, when price goes up, premium goes up and vis-versa. However, what i found most interesting over the last few weeks is there was a divergence in XBTUSD price and XBTZ19 futures premium (blue line), which i noticed for the first time. Additionally, this happened right before the BREAK See below A primary objective of this post, is to see if publishing this idea in Tradingview will keep the XBTU19 data (orange line) plotted by the XBT Contango Calculator. I have found that charts of expired Bitmex Futures are not available on Tradingview after expiration. Studying XBTU19 September futures has been very useful for trading over the last few months and hope this post will stand as a record on how Contango and Backwardation in XBTU19 contact affected price action (assuming data doesn't disappear after 9/27). If anyone knows a way to plot historical Bitmex data, please help me out. I believe it can be pulled via API from the following link, but I am not able to figure it out. www.bitmex.com THE FOLLOWING ARE TWO REASONS WHY I WANT TO STUDY HISTORICAL DATA FROM PREVIOUS BITMEX FUTURE CURVES. I think both of these scenarios could represent the two directions we have at the current moment. As you will see, if past futures curve data was available from these time periods, it could be helpful in deciding which direction to trade. EXHIBIT A - Mid November 2018, price drop after consolidation triangle EXHIBIT B - Mid July 2017, price pullback and continuation after consolidation triangle Let me know your thoughts?
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by SchamBTC
7
Bitmex Funding Rate IndicatorDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I consistently track the funding rates on Bitmex as a way to understand if one side of the trade is too crowed. This can be a very powerful indicator for identifying squeezes, both long and short, before they happen. This is currently the most important indicator for me in regards to the Bitcoin Price Action. Almost every metric shows this market as being overbought over the last couple weeks while it has tested the major area of resistance at $5,800 - $6,500. The majority of people did not expect this rally to get past $6,000 before a significant correction and I was certainly one of them. This is exactly the type of environment when one side of the trade will get too crowded and that appears to be what happened over the past week. The indicator that I'm using can be found under "Bitmex Funding Bars" and it is a great way to illustrate how powerful this tool can be. I drew two horizontal lines which indicate buy and sell signals. The sell signal occurs when longs pays shorts 0.07%+. The sell signal occurs when shorts pay longs 0.08%+. These rates must persist for a week before the signal triggers. The vertical lines represent hypothetical buys / sells based on this indicator. As you can tell it has been a great way to forecast upcoming price movement throughout this bear market. A good confirmation for this indicator is the futures curve. Backwardation occurs when spot is more expensive that the futures and this confirms a buy. If there is Backwardation while getting a sell signal then the entry is not confirmed. The confirmation was not applied to the hypothetical buys / sells in this chart but it is something to consider. This post has been marked as Neutral despite getting a confirmed buy signal. That is because I simply cannot stomach buying after a prolonged markup in the price. I strongly prefer to let the market come to me and therefore am waiting to see what happens when we eventually do correct, even if that means paying a higher price. Nevertheless I thought that this is a great indicator that is very important right now. I have been expecting a correction for weeks, but now I see that there is plenty of gas left in the tank for another leg up, despite being overbought at a major level of resistance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
5
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 335)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: L EMA < P < M EMA < S EMA Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E having trouble confirming Horizontals: S: $3,729 | R: $3,922 Trendline: $4,500 Parabolic SAR: $3,705 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.66% spread Funding Rates: Shorts pay long 0.0064% BTCUSDSHORTS: Testing 17,200 support on a red 8 TD’ Sequential: Price flip after G7 Ichimoku Cloud: Found support above Cloud, still with bullish kumo twist Relative Strength Index: Finding support above 50 Average Directional Index: Daily still bullish, weekly still converging Price Action: 24h: -8.7% | 2w: +3.4% | 1m: +6.6% Bollinger Bands: Support above daily MA Stochastic Oscillator: Sell signal was one of the few things that called this selloff. Weekly is crossing 20, confirming buy signal. Summary: What an interesting day today was! I was watching closely for a close above the 200 W EMA and that did not happen. It has held as resistance since November 2018 and continues to hold strong. Even though we got rejected hard I am still leaning bullish, for a number of reasons. We did get a bearish engulfing candle on the daily, which leads to bearish reversal 79% of the time according to Thomas Bulkowski, my most important indicators are telling me to remain bullish. The 50 EMA as turning up and acted as perfect support on this sell off. The Bollinger Band MA was in confluence and didn’t even quite get tested. The Ichimoku Cloud is fully bullish with the Tenkan-Sen above the Kijun-Sen, the price above the cloud and a bullish kumo twist. The daily Parabolic SAR remains in tact. The 4 & 9 W EMA’s are crossing for a bullish crossover for the first time in 7 months and most importantly the market has reentered Contango while price is still above the 2 week high. What I am watching for: 4 & 9 D EMA’s are threatening to make a bearish crossover and that will be something I am paying very close attention to. If the price cannot close back above those EMA’s in the next day or two then I will adjusting my bullish disposition accordingly. That is in confluence with a 50% retracement of today’s marubozu / bearish engulfing candle. If that is going to lead to a bearish reversal then resistance should hold strong below the 50% retracement at $3,922. 50% retracements are very reliable stop losses that I use regularly and if we exceed that area then it would indicate to me this was just a shakeout before breaking above $4,200. If we do break above the 50% retracement then I will be looking to re enter longs. On the other hand if we take out today’s low, which would violate the parabolic SAR and likely lead to a bearish crossover of the 4 & 9 EMA’s then I will be looking for longs. The only thing that would stop me is backwardation. If that still persists then I will sit on my hands and wait for further confirmation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
3
BTC Daily Update (day 329)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < M MA < P < L MA = price being squeezed between golden cross? Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave. Bear channel Horizontals: $3,661 Trendline: See bear channel posted on day 326 Parabolic SAR: $3,397 Futures Curve: Reentering Contango. Great example of why you buy the future when it is cheaper than spot. If you are right on the long then the future should become worth more that spot through the premium in Contango which is a nice added premium. BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like a higher low still pretty neutral in my opinion. Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% which confirms my thought that it is pretty neutral. TD’ Sequential: G2 right now is very interesting. A close above the 1 would be in line with a breakthrough of the 50 EMA. Ichimoku Cloud: Above would also be in line a kumo breakout. Relative Strength Index: 58, higher high Average Directional Index: Higher low above 20? Price Action: 24h: +2.4% | 2w: +7.2% | 1m: +2.9% Bollinger Bands: Top band starting to turn up Summary: The 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4 hour chart is my best indication that we are in for a strong bounce. They have been in a bearish cross for 6 months. That might be a record, it is at least since the beginning of 2017 (bull or bear). My target is the 200 Day EMA which I expect to be in the $4,800 hundred area. Originally I thought we would go get above that due to the gap in volume profile at $5,000, but now it really looks like alts are going to suck up the majority of this bounce. ETH appears to be leading the way and BTC is presenting a few very nice entries!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
6
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 326)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: (Using 4, 9 and 50 EMA’s) M MA < S MA < P < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel Horizontals: R: $3,679 | Testing $3,525 for support Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,359 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.8% spread. Pay close attention to the 2 week high. If we break down that (currently $3,766) and re enter Contango then it is a strong sell signal. BTCUSDSHORTS: Pretty neutral, not much to glean at these levels. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Thin could above 50 EMA represents little resistance if we can breakthrough the EMA. Relative Strength Index: Above 50, pulling back for retest Average Directional Index: Rolled over and back below 25, indicating no / weak trend Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +5.5% | 1m: +0.6% Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band. MA = $3,494 Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell signal Summary: Have been watching the charts very closely, expecting some volatility to be right around the corner. I have been experimenting with EMA’s instead of MA’s and I am really starting to like the change. I have also adjusted the inputs to 4/9/50. Looking at the 50 day EMA right now and you can see why I like it. That is my key area of resistance. If we can close a daily candle above then I expect a lot of buying volume to follow. The ichimoku cloud shows little built up resistance above that area which confirms my suspicion. That being said it will not be easy to close above the 50 EMA. It is trending down and has been acting as strong resistance. If we stay below it for another 24 - 48 hours then I am expecting us to take out the two week low and re enter Contango. If that happens I will be going short. The lower TF’s just took out $3,575 support and that should result in two scenarios, both of which come with volatility: It’s either a shakeout before the breakout, or it was the top of this rally. Still slightly too early to tell, but I expect it to be much more clear by this time tomorrow. I am still long, however I have started to scale out and I would not be looking to re enter until we close above the 50 EMA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 318)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | Symmetrical triangle Horizontals: S: $3,415 | R: $3,477 Trendline: Symm triangle Parabolic SAR: $3,323 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.1% spread. Was under 2% earlier today. BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher low still valid Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0066% TD’ Sequential: Price flipping Ichimoku Cloud: That Tenkan-Sen is blowing me away. Pretty much perfect resistance for 15 straight daily candles. Relative Strength Index: At trend resistance Average Directional Index: Price Action: Watching for it to cross 25 to confirm bear trend. Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,517. Price consolidating below MA while BB’s squeeze is bearish. Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal. 3D and Weekly posturing. Summary: Price is retesting a bullish 200 week MA. I am still expected a bounce to $5,200 - $5,800 before breaking down $3,200 support. Yesterday was a green 2 above a green 1 and I was expecting that to continue with a green 3 above a green 2. Instead we retraced and close below yesterday’s low. While that was happening the spread in the backwardation was narrowing and that had me paying very close attention. Seeing that start to expand again along with the daily candle closing inside the symmetrical triangle made me feel more comfortable about my long exposure. The market remains in a very crucial spot. Large cap alts - ETH, LTC and XRP - are at major support and could be due to a face melting bounce. If BTC holds support and gets a bounce then I am expected 2X - 3X moves out of the alts. LTC interests me most right now. It is testing critical resistance of 0.01. A close above would give me targets of 0.02 and 0.028. The 50 & 200 day MA’s are making golden cross while the LTCBTCSHORTS are at trend resistance after creating new ATH.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 316)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave / bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,375 | R: $3,476 Trendline: Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,452 | I pay very close attention to the SAR when it is this close to the price, indicates big move upcoming. Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.18% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to look like A&E bottom but that would be very hard to believe. Take a look at the LTCUSDSHORTS! Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: G2 = G1 Ichimoku Cloud:Tenkan continues to act as resistance Relative Strength Index: Lower lows and lower highs Average Directional Index: Crossing 20 Price Action: +1.3% | 2w: -3.8% | 1m: -10.6% Bollinger Bands: BB MA is acting as clean resistance Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal. 3D entering oversold. Summary: When the parabolic SAR’s get this close to the price I pay very close attention. It is a strong indicator to me that a trend is exhausting and / or that consolidation is coming to completion. I have entered a stop order to buy if we break through yesterday’s high. That would break the daily SAR and provide a very nice risk:reward. If the SAR holds as resistance and the futures market reenters contango then I will be looking for a short. After looking at some long term charts on alt coins I am thinking that there is a good chance we see a big bounce over the next 1 - 3 months. I am seeing horizontal support holding and some very bullish setups. LTC and XRP are the two that have me most interested now, and ETH shouldn’t be far behind if the former two end up leading a bounce.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 313)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | Bear channel Horizontals: Kind of in no mans land after closing below $3,500. Next area of support is $3,200 Trendline: Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,527 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.72% spread | Tightening spread as we near support is bearish and I will be watching for that to flip back to Contango. BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher lows and higher highs. Making another higher high while capitulating makes a lot of sense. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0008% TD’ Sequential: R5 Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to act as strong resistance Relative Strength Index: Lower lows and lower highs Average Directional Index: ADX crossing 20 with -DI > +DI indicating the potential start of a new bear trend. Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4% Bollinger Bands: Close below bottom band and now the BB’s are no longer squeezing. Stochastic Oscillator: Watching for D, 3D and Weekly buy signal. Summary: I am finding the XAU:BTC ratio very interesting right now. Throughout the first 11 months of the 2018 bear market BTC barely lost value against gold and the ratio remained below 0.2 during that time. However there was a sudden and drastic change that occured in November. Gold found a bottom and Bitcoin continued to sell off. The ratio currently sits at 0.387 and it is threatening to retest 0.5. This is alarming and has me wondering about the possible fundamentals behind the shift. Regardless the technicals indicate that Gold is on the verge of another massive bull run while BTC still appears to have a way to go before finding a bottom. Will be very interesting to see how this develops. From here I am expecting a retest of $3,200 and I think there is > 50% chance that it holds as support and provides a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. If that happens it would form a Bulkowski Big W on the weekly chart. However if the market re enters Contango while retesting $3,200 then I will become bearish and will look for possible short entries.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 311)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge *Using Weekly Chart* Consensio: P < M MA < S MA < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel Horizontals: S: $3,483 | R: $3,760 Trendline: Testing bear trendline that starts at the ATH | Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $4,975 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 4.19% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be creating higher low Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1171% TD’ Sequential: R2 = R1 Ichimoku Cloud: Watch for resistance from the Tenkan-Sen at $3,774 Relative Strength Index: At 35 Average Directional Index: At 33 with -DI > +DI. Strong signal that we are only half way through this sell off that started from $6,000 Price Action: 24h: -4.2% | 14d: -12.1% | 30d: -8.3% Bollinger Bands: Recently tested bottom band. MA at $5,046 Stochastic Oscillator: Recrossed bearish < 20. Summary: The Average Directional Index is very interesting. It is my strongest indication that we will get another leg down from here. The Visible Range Volume Range is painting a very interesting picture. Gap's in volume are highly likely to get filled, at one point or another. Both of my most likely outcomes would do just that: A) Bounce to $5,200 - $5,800 before selling off to $1,000 - $1,400 B) Breakdown $3,000 support, capitulate to $1,000 - $1,400 and then get a massive V bottom type of bounce to $5,200 - $5,800 My strongest indication that we will move up from here is the backwardation in the futures curve that saw it's spread widen during this last little move down.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
8
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 310)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: M MA < S MA < P < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | Bear Channele Horizontals: S: $3,609 | R: $3,777 Trendline: Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,838 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.85% Spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Trying to form higher low Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: G2 = G1 Ichimoku Cloud: Price breached cloud but did not close inside Relative Strength Index: Looks like it is forming h&s < 50 Average Directional Index: Rejected the 20 boundary line Price Action: 24h: +1.8% | 14d: -3.1% | 30d: -9.7% Bollinger Band Width: Could be bouncing from an area of support at 0.1215 Stochastic Oscillator: Diverging bullish Summary: I am not very interested in Bitcoin until it gets a daily close > $4,100. It could range like this for weeks and as like as the backwardation is prevalent with such a wide spread I am going to be leaning bullish. What is interesting to me is the volume that Ethereum has seen over the past two months. It seems to be leading the bear market and if it can rip through the new bear trendline & the L MA on the weekly chart then it might lead the whole market into strong bounce. I will continue to say that breaking down from here could be a perfect recipe for capitulation / the bottom. If we do bounce then it will only prolong the inevitable.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 309)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA = M MA < Bullish L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,580 | R: $3,673 Trendline: Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,862 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.95% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be finding support at 21,300 Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0321% TD’ Sequential: Price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish kumo twist Average Directional Index: Still threatening to cross 20. Price Action: 24h: -0,1% | 2w: -5.4% | 1m: -2.1% Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,750 which is in confluence with the bottom of the cloud Stochastic Oscillator: Still creating higher highs and higher lows Summary: Over the past four days the price has not moved a percent. Even though that is the case we still got some significant changes. Consensio is almost fully bearish. The only thing left would be for the L MA to flatten / roll down. If we continue to consolidate below it for much longer then that is exactly what will happen. The Ichimoku Cloud recently had a bearish kumo twist and the Tenkan-Sen is diverging from the Kiju-Sen in a bearish manner. It is fully bearish. The Stochastic has managed to stay bullish throughout all of that which is interesting. Yet again the only important indicator that is telling me to be bullish is backwardation and it is important enough for me to expect continued consolidation / a dead cat bounce as long as that is the case. The spread is wide which makes me things we are still a ways from reentering Contango.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 308)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: M MA < S MA < P < bullish L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel inside Bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,532 | R: $3,658 & $3,984 Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,887 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 4.13% spread. Getting more and more bullish by the hour BTCUSDSHORTS: Bull div in the RSI indicates that I was wrong about pulling back to 20,000 support and that short sellers could increase from right here. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0413% TD’ Sequential: Price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Still acting as resistance w recent bullish kumo twist Average Directional Index: Getting very close to crossing 20 Price Action: 24h: - | 2w: -4.7% | 1m: -1.5% Bollinger Bands: MA = $3,758 Stochastic Oscillator: Didn’t make a bearish recross yesterday like it was so close to doing, now diverging in bullish manner. Summary: Not much has changed since yesterday except for one key difference which is an increase in the backwardation spread to over 4%. As that the continues to increase the more bullish I become. However remember that backwardation is not a timing mechanism it is simply a way to determine a bullish bias. Since that is the only thing that has changed in my opinion, I would like to talk about is how much I am loving the Ichimoku Cloud with traditional settings. Using the ‘crypto settings’ I almost gave up on it entirely due to it lagging all of my other most important indicators. Over the past month or two I have been following it with traditional settings and now it is absolutely one of my favorite indicators. As a matter of fact it is even rivaling Consensio, and that is something I am still trying to wrap my head around. The last month it has worked wonders on BTC and LTC (as well as others I am sure). LTC broke through a bear trend, confirmed a cup and handle, got a golden cross and rolled the L MA up. Everything was screaming at me to go long, except for the cloud. I decided to wait for a daily close above the cloud to enter. That never happened and it saved me. Similar situation happened with BTC: Consensio went fully bullish but the Cloud disagreed and was right. Furthermore they are very similar and I am starting to think that the rules of Consensio can be applied to the cloud. In bull markets the Tenkan-Sen acts as the S MA, the Kijun-Sen acts as the M MA and the cloud acts as the L MA. In bear markets it is the same but switch the Tenkan and Kijun. The important thing is to always be thinking and analyzing for yourself. If something doesn’t seem to be working, or if another option seems to be working better then don’t be afraid to explore it. “Don’t fix what isn’t broken” is terrible advice and only leads to complacency. Do not let that be you! Heck we would still be in the stone ages if that were good advice. Instead I encourage you to think for yourself and always strive to evolve.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 307)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < bullish L MA - M MA attempting bearish cross today Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Seeing a parallel channel forming inside the bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,542 | R: $3,675 Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,923 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.99% spread. Increasing spread is very bullish. BTCUSDSHORTS: Took out local low. I view this as bullish in that I expect shorts to continue to pull back to the 20,000 area which would indicate less selling pressure over next week or two. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.008% TD’ Sequential: Bullish price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud continues to hold as strong resistance. Relative Strength Index: New local low while price stays flat Price Action: 24h: +0.9% | 2w: -6.9% | 30d: +2.8% Bollinger Bands: MA = $3,764 Stochastic Oscillator: Making bearish re cross < 20. Very bearish sign. Summary: The overall picture for Bitcoin is starting to turn more bullish as far as I am concerned. At the same time things are starting to turn more bearish for alts. That has me scratching my head and very interested to see what happens. ETH:USD is getting a death cross with the 9 and 33 MA’s while also forming a h&s looking pattern on the daily. The only reason I did not short at today’s close is because of an expectation for it to pump along with BTC (if that does happen). XRP:BTC appears to be breaking down the symmetrical triangle as well as rolling down the 33 MA. The only reason I feel comfortable holding onto that long is because my view of BTC. However I strongly believe that we will see alts decouple from BTC before this bear market is over. That can only happen in one of two ways: BTC pump, alts flat / dump or BTC flat and alts dump. Just because alts have been pumping harder than BTC over the last few months, when it bounces, does not mean that will continue to happen. I can honestly say this is the first time I have sensed a divergence in the technicals. Will be watching very closely to see how everything proceeds from here.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 306)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < bullish L MA (recent death cross, watch for L MA to flatten / angle down. If that happens the fully bearish posture) Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Massive falling wedge??? Horizontals: R: $3,660 | S: $3,515 Trendline: Potential falling wedge Parabolic SAR: $3,942 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.79% spread (increased ever so slightly) BTCUSDSHORTS: Attempting to take out local low. If that happens target is 19,569 Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0028% TD’ Sequential: R2 = R1 Ichimoku Cloud: If you consider yesterday re entering then today it fell out along with a bearish TK Cross Average Directional Index: Still tracking toward the 20 threshold Price Action: 24h: -2.3% | 2w: -5.8% | 1m: +11.1% Bollinger Bands: MA is starting to flatten after finding support from the bottom band Stochastic Oscillator: Buy Signal Summary: In yesterday’s post @DVemer pointed out a long term bear trendline that stared with 2017’s ATH and connected to November 8, 2018. I found that very interesting and after further analysis I am seeing a potential falling with. If it is real then it carries at $16,800 measure move. It is far too early to make that call but so far there are four out of six boxes checked, based on the rules that I use. The last two steps would be breaking through the upper boundary on high volume. I would need to see the buying volume exceed the selling volume from November 20th, at an absolute minimum, in order to consider it sufficient. Even if that does happen I will be extremely skeptical due to the built up resistance at $6,000. I would likely go long but I would have a very, very hard time using a greater target than that in order to determine risk:reward. The craziest part of all is if we get to $16,800 I still would not be considering it an end to the overall bear market. Phase 7 of a hyperwave is "the most maniacal" according to Tyler Jenks and as long as it resists below the peak of phase 6 then it is still valid / in tact, meaning that a return to phase 1 would still be the target. Wouldn't you know that the top of my phase 6 is $17,252... Even though it is too early to call this pattern real, it is not to early to pay attention and mentally prepare yourself for anything. Never say never and always be open to possibilities. That is what I try my best to do. Even though I am firmly bearish I want to understand every bullish signal / indicator that is happening so that I don't get blind sided.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
5
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 305)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < Bearish L with recent death cross Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bearish Channel Horizontals: S: $3,512 | R: $3,700 Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,970 and starting to accelerate down Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.5% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Trying to form higher low, but struggling. If breaks down 22,277 then will be watching for double bottom at 19,834. If That breaks down then I expect a retest of the bottom of the range at 10,000 Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0156% TD’ Sequential: G2 = G1 | Would pass on bullish entry if trades above due to bearish 9 MA waiting right there. Ichimoku Cloud: Absolutely loving the traditional settings. The price has been stuck to the bottom edge for 10 candles. Average Directional Index: Turning up getting ready to challenge 20 while -DI is > +DI Price Action: 24h: +3.7% | 2w: -1.3% | 1m: +13.1% Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,770 should be resistance. Stochastic Oscillator: Buy Signal Summary: I am feeling very grateful that Ugly Old Goat shared his expertise about futures curves on a series of Medium posts. That is the only thing that kept me from going short yesterday when everything else appeared to be breaking down. Consensio was fullish bearish, we closed below the cloud and below horizontal support. Nothing else would have kept me out of a short and it is such a strong indicator that it actually made me feel comfortable about holding onto the XRP long. The more you follow certain indicators and see them work the more you will gain confidence in them. Seeing the bounce today really exemplifies that for me. It makes me really excited about adding that to my toolbelt. From here I will be watching for a close > $3,800. That would put us back into the cloud, above the MA on the Bollinger Band and above all of the MA’s that I use for Consensio. From here I believe the best entry is to wait for price to breakthrough $4,200 and I will be considering setting a stop buy in that area.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
11
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 304)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge *Using Weekly Chart* Consensio: P < M MA < S MA < L MA | S MA made first bullish cross with M MA since July and it appears to have immediately reversed. Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel Horizontals: $3,500 support being tested | R: $3,592 Trendline: Channel is included on today’s chart Parabolic SAR: $5,170 and accelerating down rapidly Futures Curve: Backwardation is only reason I am not short. BTCUSDSHORTS: Consolidating at support. Will we get higher low or not? Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% | Very surprised that longs are paying shorts after the last couple days. TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish af Relative Strength Index: Finding resistance at 38. Average Directional Index: Shows that bear trend has only just begun. Estimate that we are on the 50 yard line. Volume: Not all too impressed with the volume on the selloff. Would like to see a bar that is closer to the volume we saw on the week of Nov 19. Price Action: 24h: -2.1% | 2w: -7.9% | 1m: +9.1% Bollinger Bands: Didn’t even retest MA on this last move. Bottom band = $2,572 Stochastic Oscillator: Made bearish cross < 20 which is as bearish as it gets Summary: This is a very tricky spot. The daily close below $3,550 support combined with the weekly bearish engulfing is a strong indication to enter short. However the futures market is still in backwardation and I refuse to enter short as long as that is the case. I got whipped around too many times shorting BTC during $6,000 consolidation and I could have avoided every one of those entries if I used the futures curve as my final confirmation. That is the most important indicator to me right now and I will be watching it closely. If the market re enters Contango then I intend to start shorting again. I am as confident as could be that we have not seen the bottom yet, however I also thought this would be an ideal area to provide the support needed for a relief rally. Therefore both sides of the trade are appealing. Great time to sit on my hands and wait for a clearly picture to present itself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 303) b]Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < bullish L MA < bearish M MA - Price below a bullish L MA can represent a good buying opportunity. Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel inside bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,561 | R: $3,709 & $4,000 Trendline: Connect end of March 2018 to bounce on Nov 27, 2018. Connect bottom of Feb 5 to bottom of Dec 7th. Parabolic SAR: $4,052 Futures Curve: Backwardation maintaining > 3.5% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Closed below S MA. Watching for it to close below 22,700 Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0249% | Funding rates from last couple days are very bullish TD’ Sequential: R4 Ichimoku Cloud: I am amazed by how the price continues to stick to the bottom edge. Barely closed inside today and just close a bullish TK Cross and bullish Kumo Twist Relative Strength Index: Created new local low Price Action: 24h: -0.5% | 2w: -4.8% | 1m: +9.1% Bollinger Bands: Expecting a return the MA after closing below the bottom band. Look at how tight the 3d is squeezing! Stochastic Oscillator: Entering oversold territory. Recent sell signal on 3d. Summary: The bearish indicators are declining and the bullish indicators are building. Most important bullish indicators to me right now: Support holding strong at $3,500 following the selloff from a few days ago Price below bullish L MA (can indicate being oversold in a bull trend) Backwardation in the futures market Ichimoku Cloud - The best entries can occur when multiple metrics flip simultaneously Funding indicates shorts being overleveraged despite BTCUSDSHORTS pulling back to an area of support. Most important bearish indicators to me right now: We are still in a bear market Bear channel appears to be taking over as the dominant pattern (not including hyperwave). If the top of the bear trend holds for another week or so then a retest of $3,200 would seem inevitable. Stochastic sell signal on the 3d. Over the last few days it appeared to be a much more even fight. Now the bulls appear to be taking over, however I will not be confident a bounce is coming until we close above the top of the bear channel. I plan on waiting to see if that happens before looking to add to my long exposure. Even though there are more bullish indicators the fact that we are still in a bear market could be all that it takes to continue the selloff.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
8
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 302)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < L MA < S MA < M MA | Watch out for death cross Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel Horizontals: R: $4,070 | S: $3,581 Parabolic SAR: $4,068 Futures Curve: Backwardation with widening spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to pick back up Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1256% TD’ Sequential: R3 Ichimoku Cloud: Price is fighting hard to reenter that cloud. Relative Strength Index: Sticking below 50 Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -5.9% | 1m: +5.5% Bollinger Bands: Starting to trend bearish with price below MA Stochastic Oscillator: Quickly pulling back to oversold territory. Summary: Very unimpressed with the reaction that we are seeing from horizontal support. I wanted to see an immediate response in order to be confident that the breakdown on Wednesday was a shakeout before a 50%+ dead cat bounce. On the other hand I was watching for a close below yesterday’s low to provide final confirmation to exit longs and start scaling into shorts. Neither of those occured and that has me scratching my head. Bitcoin closed a doji that never fell below yesterday’s lows and that could be viewed as bears running out of ammunition under $3,800. However the longer we stay below the 33 MA (currently at $3,715) the more confident I will be that bears are maintaining control. If we hold here long enough for a death cross to occur then I will be moving very quickly into some short positions. There are a couple reasons why I am remaining tentatively bullish and considering adding to my long position after today’s close and that is the futures curve. Not only is it experiencing backwardation but the spread is increasing from 3% to 3.8% over the last 24 hours. Generally I would stay out of the markets when the waters are this murky. However, I believe that the backwardation with a widening spread is a strong enough indicator in and of itself for me to act on. The risk:reward also favors bulls in this area. Furthermore the funding rates have been very expensive over the past 24 hours for short sellers, about 10X the average. This is as important to me as the BTCUSDSHORTS chart which is showing a lack of short selling. When funding rates are this expensive for shorts then it tells me that BTCUSDSHORTS chart is not painting the full picture.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
4
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 301)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < L MA < S MA < M MA = up to 60% short entry signaled. I am waiting for further confirmation. Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel Horizontals: S: $3,588 | R: $4,062 Trendline: Close below today Parabolic SAR: $4,081 Futures Curve: Backwardation Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1079% BTCUSDSHORTS: Appear to be picking back up after higher low TD’ Sequential: R2 = R1 Ichimoku Cloud: Close below Relative Strength Index: Back below 50 Average Directional Index: Just like that -DI crossed +DI. But still no trend so I think it is irrelevant. Price Action: 24h: -9.7% (strong indicator for me to stay away from short) | 14d: +0.6% | 1m: +6.8% Bollinger Bands: Tested bottom band / peaked through. Stochastic Oscillator: Sell signal nailed it. Summary: There are a few indicators that are keeping me slightly bullish: today’s selling volume was not that impressive, the backwardation in the futures curve and closing above / continuing to support $3,575. That being said, if we do not reverse in the next 24 hours then I will be changing that stance. There is still room for a strong bounce if we can support the $3,600 area and breakthrough $4,200. A red 2 falls below a red 1 at $3,510 and if we fall there at any point I will be bearish. A stop order to short that price feels high probability but I do not like the risk:reward. Just because I think / feel like a market has a high probability of moving in a certain direction does not mean that it provides a good trading opportunity. ETH:USD found support above a bullish 33 MA. Using slightly below the days low as a stop loss does provide a favorable setup for a long. Furthermore there is a confluence of support from horizontals. That feels like the best option right now, but that could change fast.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 299)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA = Fully bullish but currently challenging S MA. Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Symmetrical triangle / ih&s Horizontals: Continues to be a lot of support in the $3,900 range which is my most bullish indicator right now. $4,100+ continues to be formidable resistance. Trendline: Connecting to the top of the wicks from November 29th and December 24th for bear TL. Parabolic SAR: $4,145 - right on the TL / top of the triangle Futures Curve: The backwardation is more important to me (bullish) than the shorts heading back to support. They could spend a lot of time there while price rallies. However the spread is narrowing. BTCUSDSHORTS: The way shorts are heading back to support is very bearish imo. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.04% TD’ Sequential: G4 Ichimoku Cloud: Was checking the cloud today on some alts and was amazing how they are turning bullish while BTC’ is nowhere near that (traditional settings) Relative Strength Index: Supporting > 50 Average Directional Index: Turning up while +DI diverges from -DI in a bullish manner but still too early to consider it a bull trend by the ADX. Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +6% | 1m: +12% Bollinger Bands: Consolidating > MA during squeeze is bullish. MA turning down is bearish. Stochastic Oscillator: Nearing overbought territory Summary: Not much has changed. With the amount of support > $3,900 and the amount of resistance around $4,100 I am confident that the next move will be violent regardless of which way it breaks. That also leaves plenty of room to consolidate in a more narrow range toward the apex of the symmetrical triangle. I considered cancelling my stop buy order on XBTH19 in favor of waiting for a close > than that area, but with the support and resistance becoming more defined and the range tightening I feel comfortable is in a good spot. I find it very interesting how the daily cloud (traditional settings) on alts are turning bullish and threatening very nice long entries - if they can close above a thick cloud closely after the bullish Kumo twist. The best entries can happen when multiple signals come at once. I am speaking of LTC and ETH specifically and it could be that they are front running a bounce... the cloud on BTC is nowhere near either of those metrics. Looks primed for one final dead cat bounce to trap in the last set of FOMO buyers who still have money before the rug gets pulled out from under their feet. Judging by social media there are still plenty of morons who have money and the market will remedy that before this bottom is found. Bitcoin dominance is at resistance (~50%) and appear to have just created a lower low, which is a strong signal of a potential alt bounce. Again, if you want this bear market to end that this the last thing you want. We need BTC to break that resistance and get back over 80%.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 298)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA = Fully bullish & full entry signaled Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | The lack of follow through over the last couple days made me reconsider the symmetrical triangle and I think it is still in tact. | Inverse h&s in unconvincing due to declining volume in right shoulder. Nevertheless I prefer a stop order > $4,156 opposed to entering now. Horizontals: R: $4,066 | S: $3,936 Trendline: Symmetrical triangle Parabolic SAR: $4,156 BTCUSDSHORTS: This is the most bearish indicator to me right now. Almost back to support and the price hasn’t gone anywhere in response. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0013% Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.5% difference between near and long term. This is the most bullish indicator for me right now, but be careful it can change at any moment. TD’ Sequential: G3 < G2 that never got above the G1. Ichimoku Cloud: Look at how that price is following the edge of the cloud. Amazing! Average Directional Index: Starting to turn up. I believe that the next couple days will present very good opportunities and that it is important to be prepared to go long or short depending on: if we can close > $4,150 or we close < $3,875 and / or see the market enter Contango. Price Action: 24h: -1.3% | 2w: -1.5% | 1m: +15.6% Bollinger Bands: I am amazed by how fast it squeezed over the last 3 days. Relative Strength Index: Busted through 50 Stochastic Oscillator: Continues to head towards overbought territory as the price pulls back. Kind of like the shorts pulling back and the price pulling back too. Summary: I am convinced that we are going to see some volatility very soon and I am prepared to trade in either direction. I still have a small long open and a stop buy order at $4,178 that would more than double the position. I am using the March expiry because the June contract hasn’t had enough time to develop the same pattern and therefore the risk / entry were more ambiguous. I also still have my stop order to buy ETH:USD at $160.20. I also have my eye on LTC:USD. It broke through the bear channel and is threatening to breakout out of the cloud following a bullish kumo twist. Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled - first brought to my attention by @MustStopMurad. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. However if you want this bear market to end then you do not want a multi week dead cat bounce from here. That will only prolong the process, similar to drinking away a hangover with Bloody Mary's on a Sunday morning after having too much to drink on Saturday night. You don't want to go to work hungover and drinking more alcohol is not going to make you feel better for long! This is not the bottom and we are so close. If we breakdown from here then it would be a prime opportunity to capitulate down to $1,000 before anyone knew what hit them. That is how you find a bottom. This is how you get a whale to panic sell the bottom and then watch the price bounce 2X right in their face. If the market breaks down then I will wait for Consensio to signal an entry opposed to waiting with a stop entry. A close below $3,850 would do the trick if it is soon. I would also be watching closely for the market to re enter Contango. That will provide very good confirmation and could have an impact on my position sizing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez