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GOLD → Gold is waiting for a reaction from DXY. 1914 or 1965? Gold is testing sideways range support and several scenarios could develop from here. You have to be prepared for each one. At the same time, the dollar has stopped and is forming a triangle. A decline in the dollar will strengthen our gold. What to expect from the price? In that case, the chance of further declines will increase. But we have to understand that the gold is still inside the range. Intra-band trading strategy implies buying from support and selling from resistance. Watch the price reaction to support. The moving averages indicate that a consolidation is forming. If there is not a strong pullback upwards, in the medium term we should expect a fall in price along the trend Strong support: 1939, 1914. Strong resistance: 1954, 1965 If the dollar goes down and forms a correction, gold will strengthen to 1965 and possibly to 1984, but if the dollar continues to rise after exiting the triangle, gold will start another decline to 1914 Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
20
GOLD → SMA show a bullish signal before NFPGold forms a smooth transition from the downtrend to the 1984-1954 consolidation. We see an attempt of downtrend change, but will it be confirmed after the NFP? Yesterday the price made the retest of 1984 resistance, but at the same time we did not see the fall after the false break-down of the resistance. There is a consolidation near the resistance between 1984 and 1973. Another retest to the resistance might break it. Yesterday the preliminary ADP report was released, which showed the positive dynamics for the USD, but the gold went up anyway. I suppose that there is a chance that the NFP might show some growth, in which case the USD should get stronger, but at the same time the index is having a hard time. Still, there is a chance that the gold might get stronger. Reminder: Average Hourly Earnings - analysts expect data may be worse than last period Nonfarm Payrolls - analysts expect the data to be bearish for the dollar. Unemployment Rate - analysts expect worse data for the dollar The moving averages act as a strong support. We see the MA crossing, which is a strong bullish signal. Strong support: 1973.74 Strong resistance: 1984.325 I expect the gold will try to break the resistance, because the interest in the market is increasing with the lower values. But today is the NFP, remember the rules of trading before the news. Be careful! Sincerely R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
19
GOLD → A reversal set-up and retest 1954. Ahead of the news Gold breaks support 1954. Exactly what we've been preparing for for days is happening. The price updates the low to 1936. As the session opens on Friday, the market is buying back the drop. What should we expect from the price on Friday? The important news will be published today, which will give us the insight about the inflation and about the further actions and the mood of the US Federal Reserve. Technical analysis: We see a breakdown of the support of the 1954 range and a decline in the price to the level of 1936 within the downtrend. On Friday, after the opening of the session, the price forms a retest of the previously broken line and at the moment the price is in the risk zone. If the consolidation near the level continues, all attention will be on the news. Negative news for the dollar will push the price of gold and it could break the nearest resistance. If the news is positive for the dollar, then gold will go down to 1936 and even 1920. On the monthly timeframe (the chart below left), we see a false-break and the beginning of a correction. A bearish candlestick is formed after the formation of a pin bar. A strong set-up for a reversal. In the U.S., the core PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released. April PCE inflation is expected to be unchanged month-over-month at 0.3%. Analysts are eyeballing a 4.6% year-over-year increase, while the Fed is looking to bring that figure below its target of 2%. U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders MoM - Analysts expect the index to decline, which could have a negative impact on the dollar The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) - It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation - analysts believe the index will remain unchanged Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
18
GOLD → Funadametal factors can bring the price downGold closes this week in the red zone with -0.27%. The metal is in a retracement or technical pullback phase, the target of which could be the support of the 1981 range. Since we have a strong uptrend, we prioritize the scenario to buy gold. The price forms a sideways range of 2048 - 1981. A false break-down of the resistance sets the price down to the area of 2000, and the next target is 1981. The moving averages are showing an active bullish trend. Levels, increasing panic in the market: 2010, 2000: 1981. In these areas an increase in volatility and a surge in volumes is possible. This week we are expecting rather strong news, which can ambiguously influence the price: 16.05 Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the U.S. retail level, excluding automobiles - analysts expect the index to strengthen. Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. - Analysts expect the index to strengthen 17.05 Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of goods and services from the consumer's perspective-analysts expect the index to strengthen. 18.05 Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week - analysts expect the index to strengthen The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Activity Index measures the relative level of overall business conditions in Philadelphia - analysts expect the index to strengthen 19.05 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018-Feb. 2026) to deliver speech - analysts are beginning to refrain from their forecasts, but continue to expect a rate hike. European Central Bank President's Speech. Basically, if expectations hold true, the dollar could strengthen quite a bit, meanwhile gold will show the opposite trend. It is very likely that the price could test the 1981 and even 1950 area. But! The fundamental analysis showed many times that the published data can be very different from what was expected. Strong support: 2010, 2000, 1981. Strong resistance: 2025, 2032, 2048. I think the gold will continue the correction to 2000 and then to 1981 this week. But as long as the bullish trend persists, I will expect gold to continue to show a bullish direction over the medium and long term Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
22
✴️ GOLD Daily timeframe. Mar.20 - Mar.24The technical view of gold tells us that it may continue to rise and soon enough make a retest of the March 2022 price high, 2070.630. What is going on now: 1) The weekly candlestick, like the daily candlestick, closes at the very high. I conclude that the growth is not over, and from Monday the market will continue its rise 1.1) Monday's session may open with a gap, as there was a large trading volume on Friday, and we have a two-day gap (Saturday and Sunday). 2. The level of 1981.566 is a technical pullback, which also plays an important role. The technical pullback was formed on April 11, 2022. Now gold is trading higher and it closed above the level. There is a chance of the retest of this level from the opening and the following growth continuation. This level was previously a guarantor for the bears and it kept some pool of liquidity. 3) The price is in the green zone. Both trends are bullish (local and global). What could happen? 1) Short scenario: 1.1 price could make a false breakout of the 1981.566 level (strong) and form a pullback to 1960 and even to 1900 1.2 The 1981.56 level is a technical pullback level of April 2022. The retest is formed almost a year later and on the background of a sufficiently strong distributive movement. It is quite possible that for some time this level will stop the price even against the background of a strong up-trend. 2) Long scenario: 2.1 The medium-term outlook is still bullish 2.2 Important levels for us: - support 1981.56 - support 1980 - support 1959.77 - resistance 1988.335 From these levels a new upward impulse and continuation of growth can be formed, because the potential is not yet exhausted. 2.3 Support levels can be tested again, resistance levels play the role of "breakout strategy". 3) Indicators: 1) Daily and weekly moving averages play the role of support 2) RSI is in the oversold area, but against the background of the fundamental noise this does not play a role at the moment 3) MACD is green
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AndeWave
9
RLinda ! GOLD-> Cross ma-50 and ma-200. What can we expect? Gold is coming out of a bearish wedge at the end of February and forming a 1.6% momentum under the sounds of positive fundamentals for this trading instrument. What's next? At the moment a technical pullback to the 1831 area (strong support level) is forming after the growth. It is worth paying attention to the interesting and strong signal from the crossing of the 50-hour and 200-hour moving average - here we get a bullish signal, which tells us about the possible recovery of the global trend. In the meantime, the price is under pressure and if 1831 can't hold the price, the 1823 area will do the trick. I expect the futures price to continue rising in the near future. The signal for entry may be the fixation of the price either above 1831.89 or the testing of the 1825 area. The short-term target is the resistance of 1845. Regards, R.Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
41
RLinda ! GOLD-> Is distribution over? A rebound after FB?Gold reaches the first important mark of 1858, but the resistance zone, tentatively, stops the distributive movement. There might be a technical pullback phase. Gold makes a false breakdown of the consolidation resistance zone and the level of 1858, at the moment we see the price consolidation in the short zone, thus, the price opens the way down to the 1840, 1820 zone I expect that after a strong rise, gold may weaken a bit. After the end of the consolidation under 1858, I expect the price to fall. The first target is 1840, the second target is 1821. Regards to R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
33
RLinda ! GOLD-> Bullish pattern on D1. What to expect next?Gold has been in a consolidation phase for almost a month (since early December) after a strong rise. Gold is headed for strong resistance. What to expect from the 1807 level? Gold has been recovering quite strongly since early November, but after a strong rally it went into a consolidation phase. It is worth noting here that there is no deep pullback, and we can assume that the growth will continue, but not in the short term. There is a consolidation resistance ahead, from which I expect a pullback. On the global chart, we see the formation of a "cup and handle" pattern (bullish set-up). The price is in the retest phase of the important 1780-1820 zone. If this zone will be broken upwards, the formation of a strong impulse is possible. The short-term target on a pullback from resistance 1807 is channel support. The medium-term target is resistance of 1840, 1858. Regards, R.Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
28
RLinda ! GOLD-> The market takes on a negative mood Gold prices fell to a near two-week low on Thursday amid a rising dollar and U.S. bond yields after the Federal Reserve announced its rate stance, which dashed hopes for a loosening of monetary tightening from December. (Graph 1: Correlation of the dollar index, 10-year government bonds and the gold price) -The dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields rose. -Gold continued to test previous support. -The U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points, as expected -U.S. nonfarm payrolls data to be released this Friday (Chart 2: Demonstrating weakness in gold. Strong resistance squeezes the price against support) The sentiment in the gold market is clearly negative. If aggressive tightening continues, the biggest risk for gold is a sell-off that will push the price even lower, pushing it as low as $1500 Higher U.S. interest rates increase the opportunity cost of owning a nonprofitable asset and raise the dollar. Attention now shifts to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which may provide more clues about the sustainability of the labor market and the Fed's path to a rate hike. (Chart 3: Gold loses support and moves into the short zone, which paves the way for a fall) Gold from a technical analysis perspective forms a retest of the strong support and liquidity zone of 1624.18 Gold goes short and with a technical pullback to the support level, the price has a huge potential to go down to 1600 under the pressure of the negative market sentiment, but before that it has to overcome the trend line and the price levels of 1620, 1615, 1610, 1605. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
17
RLinda ! GOLD-> Gold indicates a bullish mood. What's next? Gold prices jumped nearly 1.5% Wednesday to $1674.7 as dollar and bond yields eased amid signs the U.S. Fed's aggressive rate hike has taken some inflationary pressure off The U.S. Fed Reserve is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points in November. Also likely to lend itself to a discussion of "how much higher it can safely raise the cost of borrowing." Taking cues from the data, yields on the 10-year Treasury bond fell, while the DXY dollar index hit its lowest level since Sept. 20, canceling the appeal of gold to those with other currencies *With further positive circumstances in the long run, we can expect gold to rise to the $1,800, $2,000, $2,200 mark I should also note one more thing: 1) The price after the retest of the bottom forms a strong impulse, on the global timeframe we see that the price is testing MA-50 on the monthly chart 2) Active price reaction from the trend line 3) On the hourly chart the price is trading above the trend lines MA-50 and MA-200 4) There is an assumption that the price is going towards the daily MA-50, after testing of which a pullback can be formed. 5) Gold shows bullish mood formation (locally) In terms of technical analysis on the main chart: 1) After testing the resistance zone of the formed ascending price channel, the price can go down to the 1654 zone in a technical pullback phase 2) The price can test the resistance of the price channel, if it demonstrates the bullish mood and forces positions above the level of 1668 3) The price on the retest might break through the channel resistance and form a strong impulse towards the levels: - 1681 - 1703 - 1728 Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
41