Downside Risk Grows for NZD/USD After Structure FailThe NZD/USD pair has broken down from a well-defined rising wedge pattern, signaling a shift in short-to-medium term momentum. After trending within this rising structure for several weeks, price has now decisively violated the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakout. The move coincides with a sharp rejection near the 200 EMA, which continues to act as dynamic resistance overhead.
Price is now hovering around a key support zone between 0.555 and 0.558 — a level that has historically served as a pivot point. The breakdown is also supported by a clear bearish RSI divergence, where price made higher highs while RSI formed lower highs, indicating weakening momentum. Currently, the RSI sits at around 32.47, approaching oversold territory but not yet showing signs of bullish reversal.
If the current support zone fails to hold, we could see further downside pressure, potentially driving the pair toward the next major support region near 0.548–0.540. On the other hand, if buyers step in and absorb the sell-off at these levels, a relief bounce toward the broken trendline or the 200 EMA could be expected — though such a move may face strong resistance.
