FXY
Yen index: The yen could see prolonged weaknessThe weekly index chart, with monthly MTPC overlay shows a vivid picture, that of a constantly weak yen.
We are right at a longterm downtrend mode resistance from the historical high back in 2007*, and the last test of it resulted in the start of a very volatile monthly downtrend.
We have this mode resistance as the first obstacle for new highs, as well as the low volume resistance up ahead, in the 135+ region.
The profile balance point for this uptrend sits higher up, at 148.774, so I wouldn't discount the possibility of further Yen weakness in the coming months, backed by a still running monthly uptrend signal with time to spare (price target already exceeded before starting this very volatile and sideways corrective phase) and a very clear and steep weekly uptrend that has time left as well, but with price targets already met ahead of time.
Just keep watch of this chart as you navigate the Yen pair waters.
See comments for the bigger picture view of the whole move from the 2007 high.
My current Yen vehicle is a potentially very large weekly uptrend in the Euro-yen cross. See related ideas for my forecast and trade setup.
Cheers,
Ivan.
FXY: How long can the Yen carry trade last?There's a monthly time at mode expiration in this instrument coming next month.
It's possible to see a reaction as carry trades get unwound, but it's not clear at what price yet.
The extreme target is not reached, but the time at mode one has been exceeded, and heading for 2x the projected range soon.
I think the dollar rally is about to hit its expiration date, regarding the Euro and the Yen at least, but it can last at least one more month.
Looking at usdjpy closely, and also monitoring the S&P500, TLT, Dax, Nikkei and gold.
These are very interesting times to be a trader!
Will update with more insights and potential trade setups as they come.
Good luck,
Ivan.
Nikkei: Downtrend signal after today's closeIf price closes without retesting the mode, we might see a steep decline ensue.
Entry is at market (below the previous daily low), and the stop loss at the mode.
Good luck!
Ivan.
Yen - Long Term TrendThe Yen is sitting near an important trend line going back to late 70's.
Could be near an important turning point. A break in the current downtrend similar to 90' and 98' could be the start of an extended rally in the yen.
FXY is the corresponding ETF to watch.
The "Silver" Lining: Unwinding something twisted too tightlyClassic example as to why you shouldn't listen to the sell-side & mainstream media...
