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USDNOK looks high vs. crude oilIf you are bullish crude, a good way to express it right now is via short USDNOK. Following the VAR shock in early November, hedge funds have been forced to reduce popular positions (including NOK, which was a favored reflation trade). I think the VAR shock pain is mostly done and USDNOK and EURNOK should revert back towards the lows. Both pairs look around 1% too high to me based on simple fair value vs. oil. S&P 500 and gold at the highs add to the logic. bd This is for your information only. Not trading advice. Trade your own view at your own risk.
Short
by brentdonnelly_spectramarkets
9
EURUSD - Counter trend trade idea! EURUSD - Counter-trend trade opportunity! Hello, It really feels good to be back in-front of my desk! I unfortunately had a very dismal start of the year but I am back and ready to smash this year and to post trade ideas on a more regular basis! If you have any trades you'd like me to go over - Message down below or private message. It's free! Now, Last week - I did miss out the great DXY strength we got - " SQUEEZED!". But, as I always say - the market is full of beautiful opportunities, really does depend on your patience. EUR - COULD Head down towards 1.20 and perhaps 1.19/1.18 before a further increase to areas of resistance: 1.25 - 1.34 - 1.40! Resistance Areas: 1.22210 - 1.22415 Support Areas: 1.21660 - 1.21200 - 1.20810 Pattern wise: Descending wedge formation broke out, any pull back towards 50 EMA would find a reaction of resistance. Measuring the pattern - target = 1.20800 Areas. Please do remember, this is a counter-trend trade idea. For those Dollar bears - Yeah I agree Medium/Longer term I am of course bearish the dollar but I do really like a good risk/reward towards my trades and if we do head towards 1.20 and lower I will be of course buying into EUR further more towards longer term resistance areas. Key Tip: Follow your own trade plan and execute wisely with the correct risk management. Have a great week ahead. All the best, Trade Journal (TJ) Remember: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
by Trade_Journal
NZDUSD the correction not over yet NZDUSD weakness extended overnight, breaking below the early August low and uptrend form March, currently at 0.6597/75, thus completing a small top and finally managing to follow through on the recent bearish “outside day” and the bear “wedge” that is still in place. Beneath .6503 could see weakness extend even further with next support seen at .6466, ahead of .6450/41. It’s worth highlighting the ‘wedge measured objective’ is at .6400.
Short
by Fx_Advisor
$DXY $UUP - Movin' on $UUPWith economic uncertainty continuing to grip the financial markets, the US Dollar continues to be in play. As global investors flock to US assets, both stocks and bonds, in search of above average returns and safety, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against its G10 and EM counterparts. As this trend continues, a key level to watch for the Greenback is its Weekly Resistance Level of $98.19 (Orange). If the US Dollar can breach this level, we expect the Greenback to move higher.
TVC:DXYLong
by EconomicsGlobal
EURJPY close to an decisive level! EURJPY extends its concerted test of key support from its June low and78.6% retracement of the Q1 2019 rally at 120.79/78, which continues to hold for now. Although daily MACD momentum has turned lower, only a decisive break below here would confirm the break of the medium-term uptrend from 2016 to see the completion of a large bearish "triangle" continuation pattern to turn the core trend lower again, with support then seen next at 120.29/23. Below and we see the "measured objective" of the top completed in May still set at 119.85. Resistance is seen at 121.28 initially, above which would instead set a minor base with resistance then at 121.50/54. Above here can see a move back to the 55-day average and price resistance, at 122.14/33, which we look to cap to maintain the "outside day" and bearish tone.
by Fx_Advisor
EURCHF Resumption of its core downtrend! EURCHF has seen a conclusive break of key support from its 1.1056/51 range lows to mark a resumption of its core downtrend, in line with our broader bearish stance following the completion of a large bearish continuation pattern in late June. We look for the trend to stay directly bearish with support seen next at 1.0989/84, but with the next meaningful support not seen until the "neckline to the base completed in July 2017 and the 61.8% retracement of the April 2015 and April 2018 rally at 1.0925/12.
Short
by Fx_Advisor
USDJPY: resistance capped - sharp fall Retracement resistance at 108.90/00 has capped to avoid a base to see a sharp fall, with support next at 107.60/50 USDJPY failed to clear key resistance from the 38.2% retracement of the fall from April at 108.93, avoiding a small ‘head and shoulders’ base to see a sharp turn lower within the recent range. Support moves to 107.74/71 initially, ahead of better support at 107.60/50, which we ideally look to hold above to maintain the upside pressure within the range. Thereafter, immediate resistance moves to 108.14 then 108.48. Above can see a move back to 108.90/00, which remains a crucial barrier. Above here would suggest scope for the 55-day average at 109.08 where we would expect to see renewed selling initially. A clear break below 107.60/50 remains needed to confirm the recovery effort is over, with potential uptrend from January then seen at 106.97. Below would clear the way for a move back to retest the current low and "neckline" to the early 2018 base at 106.78/69, where we would expect to see renewed buying.
by Fx_Advisor
USDYEN : waiting for Powell! USD/JPY bid but holds under 109 ahead of Powell testimony • USD/JPY bid on Gotobi Tokyo fix demand, Asia 108.85 to 108.99 before fade • Offers ahead of 109.00 vacuumed but plenty more at 109.00, beyond • Some specs eyeing stops 109.00+ but Japanese exporters, option players await • USD 1.8 bln 109.00 option expires today, tomorrow 109.00-50 total 3.5 bln+ • US yields firm pre-Powell testimony, Tsy 10s @2.074%, Asia high 2.086% • Powell talk tonight could prove decisive for USD going forward
by Fx_Advisor
AUDUSD Powell will clear the path! AUD/USD-Maintains heavy tone in narrow Asian range • AUD/USD traded in a 0.6919/31 through the Asian morning • Weak Aus consumer confidence sent AUD/USD to a session low • Buyers ahead of 0.6915 underpinned and it settled 0.6925 into the afternoon • AUD/USD support at 61.8 of 0.6832/0.7048 move at 0.6914 • Resistance at the 21-day MA at 0.6949 and break ease downward pressure • Consolidation likely ahead of Powell testimony before the House later today • AUD/USD could break either way depending on Powell's tone
by Fx_Advisor
1
USDCAD close to a Major Top ! Key support at 1.3068/52 is holding. A break trough would set a large top USDCAD USDCAD saw a quieter session yesterday, negating some of the gains from Monday to add weight to the view strength is corrective only ahead of a move back to retest important support from the 38.2% retracement of the 2017/2018 rally and 2019 low at 1.3068/52. Although further consolidation above here should be allowed for, our bias remains to look for an eventual move below here to mark the completion of a large top to signal the start of a more prominent bear trend, with support then seen next at 1.3014, ahead of 1.2971/70 –the late October 2018 low and 78.6% retracement of the Q4 2018 rally. Resistance is initially seen at 1.3146/51then the 23.6% retracement of the fall from May and 13-day average at1.3177/79, where we would expect to see fresh selling. Above though can see a deeper recovery to 1.3208/14, then 1.3231, which we look to try and cap.
Short
by Fx_Advisor
3
EURJPY So far looking offered! The risk has turned lower for a retest of key support at 120.80/78 EURJPY weakness has extended after rejecting important resistance from its June high and 38.2% retracement of the fall from March at 123.35, as well as its 5-day average, removing support at 121.65 to warn of a move back to the lower end of the broader range. Support is seen initially at 121.29, then last Friday's low at 120.95, below which should clear the way for a retest of key support from the June low, 78.6% retracement of the Q1 2019 rally and the medium-term uptrend from 2016 at 120.80/78, where we would expect to see renewed buying. Below though would mark an important break lower, exposing the 118.80/85 low for the year. Resistance moves to 121.84 initially, above which can see a move back to 122.54/54. Removal of here can see a fresh challenge on the 123.35/36 barrier
Short
by Fx_Advisor
1
US Yield... Helping USDYEN One of the biggest movers overnight, JPY is down 0.41% vs USD in the G10 space. CitiFX Technicals points out that 10y in US have broken out and real yields are pushing higher. 10y JGBs still stay in the rare negative area suggesting USDJPY should push higher. We would caution around chasing this move here but expect to see buyers around 111.40-50 area. Yields seem to be leading the way and if we get a move towards 2.82% that could push USDJPY higher towards 112.50. We have seen Leveraged buying USDJPY topside
TVC:US10YLong
by Fx_Advisor
EUR/USD Technically Slightly bullish BUT Fundamentals.....EUR/USD has room to extend recent gains but bulls will tread cautiously ahead of Fed Chair Powell's testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday and also euro zone inflation data. The U.S. decision to delay additional tariffs on China and news on Friday that Fitch Ratings affirmed Italy's BBB rating have underpinned the current EUR/USD lift. Bulls are particularly careful because euro zone growth remains precarious at best, adding weight to Powell as a dollar driver and upcoming data. Traders expect Powell to reiterate the Fed's patient stance and data dependence and will listen for comments hinting at how long Fed balance sheet reduction will last. Euro zone February HICP is an important ECB data point. A downside surprise could see lead the central bank take steps towards altering its forward guidance or move closer to new TLTROs.
by Fx_Advisor