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Gamma

Options flow are whispering on BTCThe Options Market can inform well in advance about movements that are yet to happen in futures contracts. Looking at the Options with an Exercise Date (expiry) in 22 days at the time of writing the analysis, the conclusions are quite loud and clear: 50,000 - Put Wall level, that is support with 2 times more capital than the other levels 60,000 - Call Wall level -> resistance 65,000 and 70,000 - successive resistance levels We also see some Virgin VPOC points from the past, which only adds strength and confidence to the Bitcoin bullish prediction. All data and levels are based on BTC quotes from CME. I am puzzled by a very large capital located at the level of 50k $ - someone really cares to defend this level at all costs. There is still time for it, so it's worth watching how the situation develops;)
CME:BTC1!Long
by skyline-trader
2
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 12/5 - 12/10It's going to be an extremely tough week to trade ES. There is no clear directional sentiment. I'll point out arguments for each side: Bullish sentiment: - We saw some VERY aggressive buying (and selling of SPX puts) on Friday near lows. in a normal market, the sheer volume and intensity of these trades would have been enough to call a bottom. - VIX is at absurdly high levels and statistically is bound to revert to its mean - The 5 day MA of the dark index/GEX ratio is extremely bullish - Seasonality is bullish this time of year Bearish sentiment: - Crypto sold off heavily this weekend, pointing to investors going risk-off mode - TLT is soaring, indicating investors are fleeing to safe haven bonds - We are of course still in negative gamma territory as well, which will force dealers to add fuel to the fire, especially under the absolute gamma level (4500) There are many bull and bear target areas on this week's plan because it is an absolute toss up in terms of which way things will go. My pivot for tomorrow is 4560 - depending on where it opens during regular trading hours will dictate possible trades. My pivot for the week is 4615. I think we need to hold this level for more upside. Volatility should also subside a bit since we'll be over the volatility trigger at that point (4595).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Zeal_Trading
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 11/28 - 12/3Last week was super interesting on multiple fronts (Powell sticking around, new Covid variant, etc.). Despite seeing a big risk-off movement due to Omicron strain on Friday, we are long-biased going into this week. Here is why: 1. There was **heavy** dark pool activity in SPY 2. The sell off on Friday pushed dealers into a huge negative gamma position (appx. -$1.4 Billion). When we see high dark pool prints AND low gamma prints, this very often leads to a reversal 3. VIX was sent into orbit on Friday, closing just under 29 (plenty of room for a VIX crush rally). Additionally, there was large amount of dark pool activity in SVXY on Friday (which is short VIX). Since we're long-biased, our ES plan is pretty simple: 1. Would love the opportunity to get long in BTD 1 area. I will look to get 4600 calls for end of December or January 2. I want to see a close above Bull Target 1 area for more upside. If we fail to close above early this week, we likely will need to change our bias 3. If we do close above Bull Target 1, retracements back into Bull Target areas can be used as long entries. Note: this is purely based on technical analysis. Any news around Omicron being vaccine-resistant (for example) will likely have a huge effect on the market and will take precedent over this analysis.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Zeal_Trading
2
Weekly Analysis 29th Nov - 4th Dec - horizon after Black FridayFriday's Black Friday introduced significant valuations also on the markets and we met with large anomalies also from the perspective of the Option flow, which we automatically analyze with our software. While we observe a strong directional movement already during the Globex session, it is not worth fighting the trend and it is much safer to try to join it wisely. Anyway, the Gamma Intraday strategy assumes that in the event of breaking the extreme level, we do not fight the trend but try to join the movement. Gamma -1 was broken in the markets during the Overnight / Globex session. From a medium-term perspective, it's worth going back to the Virgin VPOC levels to assess the potential for moves. The market will try to retest them, the only question is when it will happen. Let's look at the situation on the main instruments: DAX - a clear downward trend that was deepened during Friday's session. The price is close to the 14946 level, so it should be retested sooner rather than later. The remaining Virgin VPOC levels are above the current price, showing upside potential on the German index - starting at 15,909 with a potential to 16,158. S & P500 - Friday's panic on the American stock market may only be the beginning of the sell-off. It has been known for a long time that the FED has been pumping sky-high amounts of money for a long time, which causes continuous increases in the S & P500. From the Virgin VPOCs perspective, there is a lot of potential for declines through 4471.50, 4310.25 and ending at 4234.25. This does not negate long-term gains, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the downside opportunities. Gold - despite declines in the main stock exchange indices, we would expect gold to increase significantly in line with the inverse correlation. However, we saw a moderate drop in price on Friday's session and only the end showed the demand entry. Relatively close is the 1763 level, one of the Virgin VPOCs below the current gold price (at the time of writing). The growth potential of Gold looks much more interesting due to Virgin VPOC points at 1817.2 through 1863, 1875.7 with potential at 1885.2 Crude oil - a clear discount on "black gold" on Black Friday, which will surely please drivers at gas stations;) From the perspective of potential, there is a lot of room for growth, with the price reaching 81.37 and 84.22.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
Options flow predicting moves on Derivatives (Futures)Options have been and are an important instrument on the financial market for a trader trading Intraday Futures. Therefore, while exploring the mechanics of the option market over the last several months, as a result of work, indicators were created that load data from Quandl and then look for patterns that may herald a change of direction on the derivative market - in this case Futures Contracts. There are two main types of Options: CALL - allow their owner to buy a given product in the future at a predetermined price (Strike Price) PUT - allow you to sell this product at a predetermined price (Strike Price) By observing the market volumes of both types of Options, we can observe the sentiment of investors. The key factors are which volume (call or put) prevail in the volume and the dynamics of the volume - what is the trend on volume, whether the difference between them increases or decreases. In addition, the Put / Call Ratio analysis allows you to confirm or negate the signals from the Option volume. The Ratio indicator behaves inversely to the price movement - in the case of a bearish sentiment, we expect the ratio to increase, and in the case of bullish sentiment - the indicator should decrease. If the Ratio follows the price in the same direction, it is an anomaly. Of course, the mere observation of the Option volumes and the Put / Call ratio is not sufficient, as the Options Market is a much more complicated activity. It is worth including in the calculations such factors as Expiration Date, Bonus Amount, option type (In the Money, Out of Money or At the Money). Not each of the factors is equally important, therefore the key is additionally the appropriate selection of the weighting factors. For this purpose, due to the multitude of data, it is worth using Machine Learning, which I also do by saving the resulting data in a dataset in Quandl and displaying the data in TradingView using Pine Script. Below are some additional examples from recent sessions on ES showing the predictive nature of the Option sentiment, often preceding major movements in the ES index (during the spot session): First, from the left, the session from November 15 is shown and an opportunity to play Short. On the right, the session from November 16 and an opportunity to play the Long position this time. Session from November 10, where we first got the Bull's signal, and at the top we got a warning signal of traffic reversal and the possibility of entering Short: And one of my favorite moves on November 3:
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by skyline-trader
SNDL LONG timeIts been a long time coming, shorts are fighting hard for this stock. the short interest is very high 275,000,000 shares. Weibull has no put a max buy limit of 7500 shares. The last time this happened was on AMC. the float is 115% bought 15% short 275,000,000 shares the company had a 20% good news spike on the purchase of alcanna liquor 171 stores making SNDL now the largest pot retailer Its also time for market swings to happen into pot sector. 500m+ balance sheet, and no debt, highly profitable. they are ready for the next bullish run to 10-20-50-100$ plus, as this is a bank pot grower, distributor, liquor distribtor and more.
NASDAQ:SNDLLong
by UnknownUnicorn3570385
22
DAX on beginning of new week - based on Options Flow (Gamma)Going to the right, DAX tests investors' nerves and endurance. What can the beginning of a new week bring to us? Overall, we are high in the context (which does not in any way negate further increases for the sake of clarity!). Below the current price level, we have several Virgin VPOC levels, which even extend to the region of 15,200. But the only thing is that EVERY time the index will return there. Not necessarily now;) In the context of Intraday trading, breaking the Gamma +0.25 level determined automatically based on the Options market - gives the opportunity to play a Long with a target of up to Gamma +0.5. We play it carefully because of Dax's trailblazing in such high places. The exit to Gamma +0.5, because as you already know from previous analyzes, this is a very strong Intraday resistance level. Similar to playing Short as a mirror image of the described move - after Gamma -0.25 goes down, there is an opportunity for Short. Target is Gamma -0.5 (again - strong Intraday support level), but this time we are watching whether there will be a price reaction and a rebound - another opportunity for Long as the Gamma -0.5 level is in the volume zone determined automatically by VSA Scanner. According to the Gamma strategy - a bounce from Gamma -0.5 most often ends statistically at the Pivot level. Another trading opportunity is a price breakdown at the level determined automatically - Extreme Low of Day (determined from the Options and Volatility market) with the target at the extreme Gamma -1. Here, we also expect a price reaction and a position reversal in Long, where the presence of the volume zone (determined by the VSA Scanner) is an additional strengthening of the signal strength. The Options Market helps forecast movements that are yet to come in derivatives (including Futures Contracts). Therefore, it is a powerful weapon in the Trader's arsenal and is available to everyone;)
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
Between Rock and Hard place - Gold (based on Options flow)An interesting situation on gold as the price is between the relatively closely spaced two Virgin VPOC points. After reaching the local low on Friday, gold is systematically making up for losses by climbing up. The closest opportunity to join the intraday traffic north will be a Gamma breakthrough of 0.25 or the observation of demand around this Gamma (as clearly shown by the VSA Scanner in real time). The 1804 level will have a magnetic effect on the price and this move is based on the retest strategy of this level. Then a bearish reaction is expected, which is additionally boosted by the Gamma 0.5 level (determined on the basis of the optional flow from Gamma Levels). And according to Gamma's strategy, the price reaction to this Gamma most often brings you back to the Pivot point. The zone below the current price (at the time of writing the analysis we operate around 1795) is one large volume zone (designated by the VSA Scanner - blue rectangles). Nevertheless, Shorty can be played after Raising Gamma -0.25. Securing the position at Gamma -0.5 and further observation of the market reaction to this level, which, as we know, is a very strong support for Intraday. If we break the level of 1786 (an opportunity for latecomers to join the relegation movement), then the Virgin VPOC at 1779.4 should work magnetically, after which we expect the reaction of the Bulls.
COMEX:GC1!
by skyline-trader
Looks like we've got another mystery on our hands.Hey, you guys, look, I know I'm just the dude that carries the bags. If you want to know what happened with GME in January watch this . Most interest to me is the selling of puts It's good to get a basic understanding of Gamma and Vanna exposures for market makers. The important takeaway is "market makers who are long puts, or long gamma, By knowing how market makers will be forced to delta hedge according to changes in price, one can implicitly know where market makers will need to place buy and sell orders" In the video at 4:14 in the video explains why GME has been following the patterns I followed in this chart At this point, I'm fairly certain GME will remain around 180 until Nov15-19 and possible through to the end of the 1yr is when the market makers pnl profile will change to meet the end of 1yr options contracts. so much for free market price discovery. Just wait until you see what I have in store for my next mystery.
NYSE:GMELong
by SPYvsGME
Bullish runs on GoldIt is unusual in the morning that such analyzes happen to me, like the one on gold today. It is a laborious climb up the hill, but with frequent pauses in the form of lateral movements. However, from an Intraday perspective, we only see Bull Bargains on the chart. Starting with the closest price opportunities (at the time of writing the analysis) - the Gamma -0.5 level being on the edge of the Volume Zone determined by the VSA Scanner, which according to statistics on defense / reaction gives a rebound to the Daily Pivot Point. If the price goes lower (which does not negate the scenario with a rebound on Gamma -0.5, because the price may first implement the scenario of a rebound from Gamma -0.5 and then drop more) - at the levels 1793-1794.7 we have a convergence zone determined by the Extreme Low of Day (determined from option movement by Gamma) and yesterday's Low of Day - and thus another opportunity to Long. Last but not least, we also notice a demand zone that is below the extreme Gamma -1 (which would mean a market anomaly) - but this is another opportunity for Long. As for levels above the current price on gold (at the time of writing the analysis), the opportunity to Buy gold will be a breakthrough of Gamma 0.25 (or earlier Demand indications from the VSA Scanner). Happy Trade!
COMEX:GC1!
by skyline-trader
S&P500 full of opportunities today - based on Options flowS&P500 still climbs up, making small correction downside during second part of yesterday session and then trades in range. The nearest opportunity for Longs would be after breaking above yesterday High and Gamma 0.5 (set as level automatically by script from Options flow) as this area is working currently as strong Resistance. Target placed at 4437 so calculated Extreme High of the Day - which is also inside Supply Zone. Once again expected price reaction there (marked on chart). Important place to watch is also 4436.25 where we have located Options Gamma -0.5. Slightly below we also have Previous Day Low and Extreme Low of Day levels. Price should react from this area (marked on chart) which would lead to opportunity for Bulls. Target due to Price Reaction of Gamma -0.5 would be Pivot of the day, as this level accordingly to Trading Strategy with Gammas is statistically leading to such targets from this particular place. If S&P500 would drop as low as 4333, where is located extreme Gamma -1 - this is worth to observe as well as breaking below it would mean anomaly (<10 sessions per year) and stong Bearish Sentence, in direction of retesting Virgin VPOC marked on chart at 4310.25. Good Luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by skyline-trader
Scenarios Intraday for Nasdaq (NQ) - 7th October 2021Analysis of Options flow with our tools alongside with combining modified Pivots strategy (based on Volume and Options flow), would trigger to automatic set up Intraday Levels posted on chart. When combining it with VSA Sequences Scanner and Volume Zones (blue rectangles), it leads to have present x-ray picture (or simply a map) of instrument for Intraday Trading. Please find trading ideas marked on chart - beginning of arrow is trigger point and end of arrow points Take Profit level. When combining places marked on chart with dynamic results coming as signals from VSA Scanner, you would have complete Trading Suite at your hands :) Coming back to situation on NQ - we're after nice Bullish Run. First possibilities to Shorting NQ are after passing Gamma 0.25 level at earliest. It's hard to predict when next Bullish moves can happen, but Gamma 0.5 is very strong Resistance Level so after passing it we can try to place Long Positions with Target on Extreme High of Day. NQ opened Overnight session relatively close to yesterday High, therefore I don't expect going as low to bottom Demand Zone (green box), but we need to be prepared for different scenarios. Good luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by skyline-trader
Options flow as early call forecast in Intraday TradingOptions flow gives big edge on market, very often predicting moves before they happen on Futures instruments. By applying custom indicators reading Options flow data, it is possible to receive levels that can play important and leading role in Intraday Trading. When we add to this basic understanding of market mechanics, then we can have significant edge in trading. Still this is not Holy Grail, but though accurate strategy. All potential moves are explained and described on charts. Enjoy!
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
1
Options flow gives ideas for Intraday Trading - daily projectionOptions flow gives big edge on market, very often predicting moves before they happen on Futures instruments. By applying custom indicators reading Options flow data, it is possible to receive levels that can play important and leading role in Intraday Trading. When we add to this basic understanding of market mechanics, then we can have significant edge in trading. Still this is not Holy Grail, but though accurate strategy. All potential moves are explained and described on charts. Enjoy!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by skyline-trader
$AMC Priming for a Boom or Bust? AMC forming a nice bull flag on the 1D chart that I have been watching for a while. RSI on a 1D chart looking bullish IMO with an upward trend in RSI since January of this year. MACD Divergence and consolidation occurring on a 4HR chart, also giving me confidence of a significant move incoming. ADX & DI contractions are healthy signs especially considering we have respected the range of the bull flag with healthy consolidation. Assuming the bottom trendline of the pennant holds, as well as staying in bound with respective moving averages, looks like a pop or drop scenario, but I am definitely leaning towards the pop side, given the technicals. Reminds me of the GME consolidation phase after the pop to 485. Few ways to play this depending on your risk tolerance, strangles would be nice plays if youre just looking for the volatility. Maybe vertical spreads if you want to take a conservative call option position. I am personally taking the bull side with near the money calls with the most gamma exposure which would be $60 strike calls. GLTA
NYSE:AMCLong
by chartxzy
$SPY Pinning within the Options Market As you can see, we are seeing what is called pinning, which is when contracts with highest open interest, with their respective strikes, tend to cause a security to gravitate towards those levels near expiration, with contracts on friday not having to be exercised or assigned until monday at 5:30 PM, I see a lot of volatility coming our way. Nikkei down nearly 4% this morning will definitely create pressure for the US Markets, which is being reflected in the futures market as we speak.
AMEX:SPY
by chartxzy