Gold terminal fluctuation range: 3300-3330Gold terminal fluctuation range: 3300-3330
Analysis of main influencing factors
(1) Trade frictions escalate, and safe-haven demand heats up
The Trump administration announced that it will impose tariffs on eight countries (Brazil 50%, Libya/Iraq/Algeria/Sri Lanka 30%, Brunei/Moldova 25%, Philippines 20%), which will take effect on August 1.
The EU is accelerating negotiations with the US to avoid raising auto tariffs on August 1 (EU automakers are currently facing 25% tariff pressure).
(2) Fed policy divergence, interest rate cut expectations fluctuate
The minutes of the June Fed meeting showed that most officials supported a rate cut this year, but ruled out the possibility of action in July. Some officials were concerned about inflationary pressure caused by tariffs.
The market expects the central bank to cut interest rates for the first time in September, with a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of the year, but stronger-than-expected employment data curbed expectations of aggressive easing.
Technical analysis:
Key support levels: $3280-3282 (this week's low), $3250 (trend line support).
Key resistance levels: $3315-3330, $3345-3360.
Short-term trend:
If it breaks through $3345, it may challenge $3400;
If it falls below $3280, it may fall to $3250.
Pay attention to today's US initial jobless claims data and speeches by Fed officials.
Pay attention to the long-short battle of $3320 and the breakthrough of $3345.
Short-selling strategy: (as long as the gold price is below $3330, you can short at a high level)
Sell: 3325-3330
Stop loss: 3340
Target: 3315-3300-3280
Long-term strategy:
As long as the gold price is above $3300, going long at a low price is an acceptable and stable profit strategy.
Stop loss: 3295
