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Gaptrading

When Intuition Beats the Algorithm█ When Gut Feeling Beats the Bot: How Experience Can Improve Algorithmic Trading In today’s world of fast, data-driven trading, we often hear that algorithms and rules-based systems are the future. But what happens when you mix that with a trader’s intuition, the kind that only comes from years of watching charts and reading price action? A recent study has some surprising results: A seasoned discretionary trader (someone who trades based on what they see and feel, not just rules) was given a basic algorithmic strategy. The twist? He could override the signals and use his instincts. The result? He turned a losing system into a winning one, big time. █ What Was the Experiment? Researchers Zarattini and Stamatoudis (2024) wanted to test whether a skilled trader’s experience could boost a mechanical system. They took 9,794 stock “gap up” events from 2016 to 2023, where a stock opens much higher than the day before, and let the trader pick which ones looked promising. ⚪ To make it fair: All charts were anonymized — no names, no news, no distractions. The trader had only the price action to guide his choices. He could also manage open trades — adjusting stop-losses, profit targets, and position sizing based on what the price was doing. ⚪ The Trading Setup █ What Did They Find? The trader only selected about 18% of all the gap-ups. But those trades performed far better than the full list. Here's what stood out: Without stop-losses, the basic strategy lost money consistently (down -0.25R after just 8 days). With the trader involved, profits rose fast, hitting +0.80R just 4 days after entry. Risk was tightly managed: only 0.25% of capital was risked per trade. ⚪ So what made the difference? The trader could spot things the system missed: Strong momentum early in a move Clean breakouts from long sideways ranges Patterns that had real follow-through, not just random gaps He avoided weak setups and managed trades like a pro, cutting losers, letting winners run, and trailing positions with smart stop placements. ⚪ Example An experienced trader can quickly identify a breakaway gap, when a stock gaps up above a clear resistance level. Unlike random gaps, this setup often signals the start of a strong move. While a system might treat all gaps the same, a skilled trader knows this one has real potential. █ What Does This Mean for You? This research shows that trading experience still matters — a lot. If you’re a systematic trader, adding a discretionary filter (whether it’s your own review or someone else’s) could drastically improve your results. A clean chart read can help you avoid false signals and focus only on the best setups. If you’re a discretionary trader, this study is proof that your skills can add measurable value. With the right tools and discipline, you don’t need to throw away your instincts, you can combine them with structure and still win. █ Key Takeaways ⚪ Gut feeling isn’t just noise, trained instincts can spot what rules miss. ⚪ Trade selection matters more than just following every signal. ⚪ Managing risk and exits well is just as important as picking good entries. ⚪ Hybrid trading, rules plus judgment — might be the most powerful combo. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Zeiierman
13
What Is a Gap and How Can You Trade It in Forex and Crypto?What Is a Gap and How Can You Trade It in Forex and Cryptocurrencies? When it comes to trading, understanding gaps is pivotal for traders aiming to navigate and capitalise on market volatility. These spaces on price charts where no trading occurs are often exploited by traders looking for a quick reversal or trend continuation. This article delves into the essence of gaps, their types, and three gap trading strategies. Understanding Gaps in Trading Understanding gaps in trading is crucial for both new and advanced traders, as these occurrences can signal significant price movements and opportunities. A gap is observed on a price chart when the price of an asset sharply moves up or down with no trading in between, creating a visible space or 'gap' in the price pattern. They almost always happen at the market open but can also occur after major news events or economic announcements, reflecting a sudden change in sentiment. There are four main types of gaps, each offering different insights and implications for traders: Exhaustion These appear at the end of a price movement and signal that a trend may be running out of momentum, potentially leading to a reversal. This type is characterised by a sudden move in the price in the direction of the prevailing trend, but with the trend quickly losing strength and often reversing after the gap is made. Breakaway Occurring after a period of consolidation, breakaway gaps signify the start of a new trend. They emerge when the price moves away from a trading range or pattern, indicating a significant change in market dynamics and the potential for a sustained move in the direction of the price jump. Continuation These gaps are seen within a strong trend and signal that the current trend is likely to continue. Continuation gaps represent a surge in interest in the direction of the prevailing trend, reinforcing the current momentum and suggesting further movement in the same direction. Common These are the least significant and occur frequently without implying any particular price direction. Common gaps are typically filled quickly and can be a result of minor fluctuations that temporarily create a small jump in the price pattern. The Significance of Gaps in Forex and Cryptocurrency Markets In the world of trading, the occurrence of gaps on price charts holds particular significance, offering insights into market sentiment and potential shifts in price dynamics. This is especially true in the forex and cryptocurrency markets, where they convey unique implications due to the nature of these markets. In forex, gaps are relatively rare compared to stock markets, primarily because forex is traded 24 hours a day, five days a week. However, this unique feature is what makes the gaps important for identifying price movements. Usually, they occur at the beginning of the trading week or after major geopolitical events and economic announcements that happen over the weekend. They’re closely watched by traders as they can indicate a strong initial reaction to news or events, potentially setting the tone for trading in the coming days. Cryptocurrencies, traded continuously 24/7, experience gaps even less frequently than forex. The non-stop nature of this market means that price action is constant, leaving little room for price jumps to form on price charts. However, when they do appear in cryptocurrency markets, often on derivatives charts rather than spot, it can signal extremely impactful events or significant shifts in trader sentiment. Given their rarity, gaps in cryptocurrencies are particularly noteworthy and can represent critical trading opportunities or warnings for investors. In both scenarios, the gap is likely to be filled at some point. Often, this occurs on the same day or within a few days of its appearance. However, a gap can remain unfilled for several weeks or months, depending on the market context. It’s worth determining the type of gap you’re looking at to gauge whether the price will reverse quickly or kickstart a new trend. Three Gap Trading Strategies Now, let’s take a closer look at three gap trading strategies that can be used in the forex and crypto markets. Want to follow along? Using FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform offers access to live forex and crypto charts. Gap and Go Trading Strategy The Gap and Go trading strategy is a popular gap trading technique that emphasises the power of momentum following a sudden market jump. This approach is particularly effective in capturing the initial movement after a gap appears, usually at the opening of the trading week in forex. The strategy focuses on identifying strong momentum indicated by breakaway or continuation gaps on daily or weekly charts. However, it can also serve as a valuable tool for setting short-term direction on lower timeframes. By aligning trades with this initial burst of momentum, traders can potentially capitalise on swift movements before the price settles. Entry Traders typically look for a jump that occurs in the direction of the prevailing trend. Entry is often considered as soon as the candle opens after the gap. Stop Loss Stop losses are commonly placed just above (for short positions) or below (for long positions) the high or low of the previous candle's trading range. Take Profit Profit targets might be set at a nearby support (for short positions) or resistance level (for long positions) on the same timeframe as the entry, allowing traders to lock in returns before the market potentially reverses or consolidates. Quick Reversal Gap Trading Strategy This strategy focuses on exploiting the tendency of gaps that go against an established trend to get filled quickly. They are typically interpreted as common gaps, which arise due to an overstated response to overnight news or weekend events. Unlike exhaustion gaps that signal the start of a new trend, this type usually represents temporary deviations from a prevailing trend, leading to quick reversals as the market reassesses and corrects the initial knee-jerk reaction. This filling process is attributed to the market's natural inclination to maintain a trend unless given a strong reason to reverse. Entry Traders identify an existing trend using a daily or weekly chart. For a bullish trend, the strategy involves looking for a candle opening price that is lower than the previous close (and the opposite for a bearish trend). The entry point may be set when this counter-trend gap is identified. Stop Loss A stop loss may be placed just beyond a nearby swing point. Take Profit Profit targets may be established at the close of the candle before the gap, where the jump is expected to be filled. Small Gap Fill Trading Strategy When trading gaps in forex, it’s common to see small gaps being filled within a short period, often within a day or two. This strategy is tailored to identify spaces that are relatively minor, typically less than half of the previous day's trading range. While strategies that align with momentum and trends may have a higher probability of an effective trade, the market's inherent desire to seek equilibrium makes even small, seemingly insignificant gaps likely to be filled. Entry Traders look for a small price jump, ideally less than half the size of the prior day’s range, entering in the direction anticipated to fill the gap. Stop Loss A stop loss may be placed slightly above (for short positions) or below (for long positions) the day's open, allowing for some intraday price movement. Take Profit Profits may be taken as soon as the close of the candle preceding the gap is met, capitalising on the quick return to balance. While this strategy may carry higher risk due to its simplicity and lack of supporting factors (like trend analysis), its effectiveness can potentially be enhanced by using other forms of analysis. For instance, if the gap occurs near a support or resistance level, the likelihood of the gap filling may increase. The Bottom Line Understanding and trading gaps in the forex and cryptocurrency markets may offer unique opportunities for informed traders. However, it may be worth combining these strategies with a solid understanding of market conditions and technical analysis to enhance their effectiveness. For those looking to apply these strategies and more, opening an FXOpen account could be the next step towards engaging with forex and cryptocurrency markets via CFDs. FAQs What Is a Gap in Trading? A gap in trading refers to a significant price movement on a chart where no trading occurs, leaving an empty space between two trading periods. This jump, either up or down, is often influenced by news events or market announcements. How to Predict a Gap Up or Gap Down? Predicting a gap up or down involves analysing market sentiment, news events, and technical indicators that might influence the opening price of an asset, usually over a weekend or when the market is closed. Traders closely watch for indicators of sudden shifts in demand or supply that could lead to a price jump. What Is the Forex Gap Strategy? The forex gap strategy leverages markets' tendency to fill gaps after they occur. Traders identify potential price jumps over the weekend or after major news releases and position themselves to capitalise on the price movement back to the pre-gap level. How to Trade Gaps? Trading gaps involves identifying the type of gap and employing a strategy suited to its characteristics. Traders might enter trades in the direction of the gap's fill or anticipate a continuation of the trend that caused the jump. What Are the Four Types of Gaps in Trading? The four types of gaps in trading are Breakaway, Exhaustion, Continuation, and Common. Each type indicates different market conditions and potential future price movements, guiding traders on how to position their trades. At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
3
Exploring Forex Trading's Price Gaps: Opportunities and RisksWithin the realm of forex trading, price gaps emerge as a frequent and remarkable occurrence, distinguished by substantial disparities between an asset's closing and opening prices. These gaps materialize due to an array of factors, encompassing shifts in investor sentiment, alterations in market liquidity, and the dissemination of consequential news. Acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the diverse types of price gaps, their underlying causes, and the implications they carry assumes paramount importance for traders aiming to effectively exploit these market opportunities while astutely managing the associated risks. Price gaps come into existence when a discernible void arises between an asset's closing price on one trading day and its subsequent opening price on the following day. These gaps manifest in a variety of forms, each embodying distinctive characteristics and wielding implications for traders. Among the common types of price gaps are breakaway gaps, runaway gaps (also referred to as continuation gaps), and exhaustion gaps. Breakaway gaps frequently manifest subsequent to a period of consolidation or a significant market event. These gaps act as a signal of potential trend alterations, offering traders opportunities to establish new positions in alignment with the emerging market direction. Runaway gaps, conversely, arise within an established trend, reinforcing its continuity. They serve as a testament to surging market momentum, often propelled by fresh developments or an influx of trading activity. For traders who have already positioned themselves in line with the prevailing trend, runaway gaps provide affirmation and the potential for further profits. Exhaustion gaps surface towards the conclusion of a trend, heralding a prospective reversal or temporary pause in the prevailing market sentiment. These gaps are frequently accompanied by dwindling trading volume, serving as a cautious indication for traders to reassess their positions and adapt their strategies accordingly. Comprehending the causative factors behind price gaps is indispensable for traders seeking to decipher their significance and seize potential opportunities. Price gaps can arise due to sudden shifts in investor sentiment prompted by news releases, economic indicators, or geopolitical events. Moreover, market liquidity discrepancies, particularly during periods of low trading activity like weekends or holidays, can contribute to the occurrence of gaps. Traders must meticulously evaluate the implications of price gaps and remain cognizant of the associated risks. While gaps can furnish lucrative opportunities, they also entail potential challenges. Swift price movements during gap openings can lead to slippage, wherein executed orders are filled at prices significantly divergent from the intended entry or exit levels. Additionally, the scarcity of liquidity during gap periods can yield widened spreads, underscoring the importance of deploying appropriate risk management techniques. To adeptly navigate price gaps, traders can employ an array of strategies. These may encompass the utilization of gap trading techniques that harness the initial price movement following a gap, or adopting a more cautious approach that awaits confirmation of the market's response before entering a trade. Furthermore, implementing stop-loss orders and trailing stops can help mitigate risks associated with adverse price movements. Do Gaps Always Close? The closure of gaps in trading is not guaranteed, but statistical data suggests that gaps are closed at least 70% of the time, particularly when looking at weekly gaps. However, it's important to note that not all assets reach such closure levels. Among currency pairs, EUR/JPY, GBP/EUR, and GBP/JPY tend to exhibit a higher tendency to compensate for price gaps. Exhaustion gaps are generally considered the most reliable for closure trades. When attempting to forecast gap closure, it is advisable to analyze the technical chart patterns alongside the fundamental background. If there is a divergence between these factors, it may be wise to exercise caution and refrain from engaging in active trading. In such cases, it is recommended to rely on the forecasts of other instruments to shape the overall trading outlook. Gaps can pose risks for traders in certain situations: 1) Small trading deposits: If a trader is operating with a limited deposit that does not allow for position insurance when faced with significant and unfavorable price gaps, it can be risky. Insufficient funds to cover potential losses from a large gap can result in substantial financial consequences. 2) Lack of proper risk management: If a trader fails to set appropriate stop-loss levels or neglects to place them at all, particularly when holding positions over the weekend where gaps commonly occur, it can leave them exposed to significant losses if the market moves against their forecast. 3) Random price gaps in low time frames: Gaps that appear sporadically in lower time frames can be misleading and confusing. To avoid making impulsive decisions based on such signals, it is important to synchronize the analysis with fundamental events and consider incorporating technical indicators into the trading strategy. Traders who pursue short-term trading with small profit goals are particularly susceptible to the risks associated with price gaps. Even a small gap can lead to losses for this category of traders, as their profit margins may be narrow. In contrast, mid-term and long-term traders typically have less concern about the impact of gaps. Their trading strategies aim for larger profit targets, often spanning hundreds or thousands of points, where the impact of a single gap of a few tens of points is relatively insignificant. Using Price Gaps In Trading Practice: Price gaps can be utilized in trading practice using market and pending orders to take advantage of potential opportunities. Considerations such as the probability of closure, gap size, and time frame are taken into account. For instance, in a 30-minute time frame, if a price gap of at least 20 points is observed at the market opening, the price tends to move within the gap for the first half-hour due to inertia. In the case of a bullish gap, a market order to buy can be placed, while the Take Profit level can be determined using additional analysis tools. Similarly, for a bearish gap, a sell order can be activated. If a gap appears against the prevailing trend, the likelihood of the gap closing increases. In such scenarios, pending orders like Buy Stop for an uptrend or Sell Limit for a downtrend can be effective. One of the challenges is setting an appropriate Stop Loss. Take Profit levels can be adjusted, considering factors such as the Friday closing level, slightly above it, or at local peaks (maximum or minimum) observed on Friday. It is crucial to exercise caution and consider risk management techniques when trading based on price gaps. Traders should thoroughly analyze market conditions, employ suitable order types, and carefully determine their entry and exit levels to optimize trading outcomes. In conclusion , price gaps in forex trading serve as important indicators of market dynamics and present potential opportunities for traders. By analyzing the type of gap, incorporating support and resistance levels, and utilizing technical indicators and candlestick patterns, traders can make informed decisions to capitalize on these market phenomena. It's essential to note that gaps do not always close, and traders should be mindful of this fact. To enhance trading strategies, it is beneficial to align technical analysis with fundamental factors and consider the broader market context. Caution should be exercised, especially when trading with smaller deposits and during periods of increased market volatility, in order to manage the risks associated with price gaps effectively. By incorporating thorough analysis and risk management techniques, traders can navigate price gaps with greater confidence and optimize their trading outcomes.
Education
by FOREXN1
10
Bitcoin Gap Trade: $20k and then up to $35kShort-term bearish, long-term bullish. I'm not currently trading Bitcoin and am only stacking, but I use the short-term technicals to time my buys which have been nearly every week since September 2022, and my current cost average is ~$20k. Bitcoin price is attempting to hold above $28k after breaching but failing to hold above $30k this past week. The reversal here isn't surprising considering that price just pretty much ran from $20k to $30k unhindered so a pullback was expected at some point given the bearish sentiment that still surrounds crypto in general. As for gap trades, Bitcoin tends to fill gaps sooner rather than later compared to other assets so the most likely path for Bitcoin going forward from here is a fill of the gap down near $20.5k in the coming weeks, price finding solid support in that range, and then a move higher to fill the gap up in the $35k range in the coming months. Good luck out there traders.
CME:BTC1!Short
by PrepForProfit
$UPST Gap fill or sub 20Upstart - not really sure what they do ;0 - but the stock is up 15% today so someone is buying here Bull case - Nice close above 10day MA , is a start to possible upleg for the 76.23 gap fill , currently trading around $50 implying a $26 dollar move. Bear case - a new high is not made and upon rejection lower lows targeting $20 zone or less, implying around a -30$ move With the giant gap above I think it's important to remember supply and demand here - most holders who didn't sell are sitting higher above (supply), seeing their ticker have +15% days is very promising! As such they are holding (bag holders), until break even at least or more, hence there will be heavy supply once ticker gets to this zone but not much until then, for those people already sold. And now we have demand/ buyers with bottom fishing who are currently up depending on entry. They will sell along the way causing dips, however many who bought in 30's and even 40's are green and holding for more. Hence under the above, Demand should outweigh supply until gap fill zone... Trade idea for bull case - Calls are expensive and I want time here, so JUL 60/80 debit spread, as given the supply area will most likely IMO overwhelm demand after gap fill . Trade idea for bear case - bear call spreads for less risk or naked puts a few months out with $37 being first target. My bias is to the upside Cheers
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by FriscoTrades