xauNot looking great for the gold bulls after $2,800 late 2024-2025. Might not even break past $2,400 TBH
Gdxanalysis
GDX: Will you make it? 💪This is what we ask GDX regarding our primary scenario. The ETF has shown momentum in both directions: upward and downward. However, we expect the bulls to win this fight, pushing GDX above the resistance at $32.58 and into the turquoise zone between $33.93 and $35.57. There it should finish wave ii in turquoise and turn southward again, heading back below $32.58. However, our secondary scenario shouldn’t be disregarded! There is a 40% chance for the bears to triumph. In that case, we would have to wait for wave alt.(5) in yellow to expand first, which would then include a new low.
GDX: Gardening 🌱🌷🌹It’s springtime and GDX is working on wave B in green in its green garden between $30.01 and $32.58. Soon the ETF should harvest the respective high, which could be settled anytime. Afterward, the course should turn and leave the garden on the southern side to expand wave ii in orange. This downwards movement should end well before the support at $21.52, though, so that GDX can resume the ascent. However, there is a 38% chance that the ETF could slip below this mark and thus continue the descent instead.
GDX: Rise and Shine! ☀️GDX seems to have woken up and is showing its high spirits by climbing upwards. We now consider wave ii in magenta to be finished, and thus expect the ETF to continue its way above the resistance at $28.83. Once there, GDX should gain even more upwards momentum to rise above the next mark at $40.13 as well. We should still keep in mind our alternative scenario, though, as there remains a 40% chance that GDX could lose its steam and drop below the support at $16.18. in that case, we anticipate further descent.
GDX: GDX-citing 🍿We hope you’ve all got your popcorn ready because it’s getting more and more exciting here! GDX has reacted to the upper edge of the magenta-colored zone between $19.52 and $27.49 and has slowed down its upwards movement. Although the ETF could directly continue the ascent, we still give it some more room and time to finish wave in magenta a bit deeper in the magenta-colored zone. As soon as wave in magenta is completed, though, GDX should take off, rise above the resistance at $28.83 and head for the next one at $40.13. However, there is a 30% chance that GDX could break through the bottom of the magenta-colored zone and drop below the support at $16.18, which would then activate further descent.
GDX: GDXcellent!GDX has proceeded to follow our primary scenario and has reached the support line at $28.83 by now. Next, it should drop below this mark and into the magenta zone between $27.49 and $19.52 to finish wave ii in magenta. Afterwards, the ETF should focus upwards, rise back above $28.83 and even further above the resistance at $40.13. However, there is a 30% chance that GDX could fail to turn within the magenta zone and could fall below the support line at $16.18 instead, thus continuing the descent.
GDX: Out of the BlueThis is GDX’s motto only literally because its descent from the blue zone between $43.86 and $39.30 was far from unexpected and indeed completely in accordance with our primary scenario. After completing wave (b) in blue in the blue zone, GDX has established itself on its way downwards, and we expect it to continue this trend into the magenta zone between $27.49 and $19.52 below the support at $28.83. There, GDX should finish wave (c) in blue and wave ii in magenta before rising above the resistance at $40.13. There is a 30% chance, though, that GDX could break through the bottom of the magenta zone and drop below the support at $16.18.
GDX: Room for MoreFor GDX, there is still room for more upwards movement! As the ETF has only touched the blue zone between $39.30 and $43.86 so far, we expect it to go for it again and more firmly this time, crossing even the resistance at $40.13. After it has finished wave (b) in blue in the blue zone, GDX should rattle down through the support at $28.83 and into the magenta zone between $27.49 and $19.52, where it should complete wave (c) in blue as well as wave ii in magenta. Then, GDX should turn around and move upwards, heading for new highs above the resistance at $40.13. However, there is still a 30% chance that the price might not rise from the magenta zone but could fall through it and below the support at $16.18 instead.
DJI/GDX appears to be nearing completion of a top.The GDX, which is an ETF comprised of precious metals mining shares appears to be topping with a head and shoulders pattern when compared to the DOW. Basically when this ratio reduces the GDX becomes more valuable when compared to the DOW Jones Industrial average and broader stock market. This ratio appears to be trapped in the undervalued zone (for the GDX) and has been there for the last 8 years.
We are still in a time with good buying opportunities for gold and silver miners, as the GDX is cheap when compared to the broader stock market.
Sooner or later this ratio will break down lower. When it does what would you rather own? General stocks or gold mining stocks?
GDX: Pushing for dem Lows! 🥸🥸🥸The GDX ist moving downwards again, which is the primary direction we are expecting this market to develop. With this turnaround, an alternative surge is now neutralized and we now need to wait for the course to reach the area around $22.51, where we expect the next turnarund - but this time to aim for rising prices. It remains important here that the course does not drop below $16.18.
Have a great start to the week!
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GDX RALLY SETUP We now have a clear 5 wave down look for rally MIN 36 IF BEARISH TREND IINTACT OR above 37.8 then we go much higher
GDX ready to push up?RSI above 50, MACD still with a positive upward slope, as well as a rising histogram. Runaway gap from Yesterday made with a big volume spike and wasn't tested nor covered. An eventual test of the gap would be an additional bullish confirmation, but depending on gold's price that may be skipped.
🍾Warren Buffet joins Schiff - who is else is coming the party?If there was any doubt that the gold miners are not about to start a new bull market, that doubt has been squashed by Berkshire Hathaway buying some Barrack Gold.
Before this news I was expecting the GDX to go as low as $32 in this corrective move, but the cats out the bag and I’m sure bigger players will start entering into this space in the coming weeks/months (hedge funds etc).
From the $45~ top we’ve gone as low as $38~ which looked like a blow off top like we saw in gold. On top of that there was some bearish divergence between price and RSI that I have highlighted in yellow.
The bounce from this level backtested the old trend line and it looks like the next move is lower.
The gold chart looks be in a corrective phase too which gives me greater reason to believe the GDX will follow suit (you can see my gold chart by checking out my profile).
The first area to add to longs is the $37, this has been a major support/resistance where I expect a bounce.
If that level does not hold, a while back I thought we would make the move all the way down to $32~, but that seems rather unlikely thanks to Warren, instead I’d welcome prices to hit $35-$34 level, the GDX did face some heat at this level in May and June.
Have any questions about the GDX in the short-term? Leave a comment below.
💛GDX shows bearish divergence - good idea to take some profit?GDX like gold is looking to break out to the moon, but is that party going to be put on hold for now?
Both Gold and the GDX are showing some bearish divergence (shown in chart), they are moving higher in price on lower momentum. In fact most indexes are showing this, not just the gold market.
We are going to need a lot of rocket fuel to get to $47 for GDX and $1900+ for gold, so I'd like to see more momentum not less/.
TSLA is up 36% in the last 5 days with many tech stocks up 10%+, if momentum runs out of steam for these tech stocks, it mqy impact on the entire market, resulting in one last shake out in the GDX before going higher.
I would not short here but it's a great time to take some profits, most of the ideas for the GDX is to buy, another signal to me that a shake out in July/August may be on the cards.
I'll be adding to the GDX for longs if we hit the $32-$28 area for sure.
Gold Miners: Be Careful, Ascending Wedge EmergingI'm only in this for a small play but I did not want today to happen. I'm still short GDX but from the dotted line you can see where I will exit the trade.
GDX - IMPENDING DOOM!!We can see from this chart that price is ready to drop!
It has hit a key level of support and bounced off, it has tested this area several times before going higher each time.
The last time this level was broken it was a freefall to the bottom.. The next time the drop may be even greater!!
Get the sell stops in!
GDX short as shown in the chart we have h&s pattern, tomorrow if break the Nike line we see a big drop in the gold.
enjoy
🚀Will Q2 earnings give the GDX the fuel to rocket?Gold mining stocks have a reputation on promising to deliver big but failing (see 2009-2011).
I’ve been following the GDX since 2016 when I first started buying gold miners, and up until 2020, nothing really happened.
The miners were in a bear market for 8 years and could not breach the $30 resistance, until April 2020.
Does this signal the start of a new bull market, or will the gods have their way and bring us hodlers back to reality?
To get this party started, we will need the GDX to clear $37 decisively, we did hit that area in May but sharply pulled back to the $32 area.
Until we break the $37, we could expect to range between $37-$30.
What will cause the GDX to move higher?
The only thing we can expect to move the GDX higher is the price of gold. if gold can stay above $1700, and oil prices maintain their current price levels for a few more months, the fundamentals for gold miners will look even better.
Oil is a major cost of production for miners, so cheap oil means more profits!
It will be interesting to see their Q2 earnings, if they can impress with earnings when most other sectors are going to show slow growth, that could build buying momentum and attract new money.
If gold prices break to the downside, that will most likely send GDX below $30 and result in a fake-out to what we are seeing.
Looking at the RSI, we can see that momentum is building and even touched the oversold. To me this is a good indicator of a new bull market forming, but I'd like another confirmation in breaking the $37 price.
I don’t see fresh money coming into this sector as we do with Tech stocks, retail investors want to hold stocks that are sexy and gold miners aren’t that.
For that reason, we will need to rely on gold staying above $1,700, good earnings in Q2 and cheap oil.
I have posted my macro views on gold, Bitcoin and the S&P500 this month, please take a look at my trading ideas and give me a follow. My goal is to provide macro views on marketing taking into consideration market news, not solely relying on TA.
NEM (3W) / Bullish Elliott Wave CountDifficult not to see an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern in this gold miner, isn't it?
GDX - 7 Year BreakoutNew multi-month support at $32.
GDX needs to stay above $32 for the rally to resume.
Long Opportunity in GOLD (Barrick)?GOLD Barrick consolidating below a big resistance trendline. It could be within a triangle 4 (confirmed by volume, unlike the commodity?). EW geometry not ideal. Green box #1 is 25.67-26.23.
