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Geopolitical-risk

Will the Dollar Index Redefine Global Economic Equilibrium?In the intricate dance of international trade and geopolitical strategy, the Dollar Index emerges as a critical compass navigating the turbulent waters of economic uncertainty. The article illuminates how this financial barometer reflects the profound implications of proposed tariffs by the U.S. administration, revealing a complex interplay of currencies, trade relationships, and global market sentiments that extend far beyond mere numerical fluctuations. The proposed tariffs targeting key trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China represent more than economic policy—they are strategic maneuvers with potential seismic shifts in global trade dynamics. As the Dollar Index climbs, reflecting the U.S. dollar's strength, it simultaneously exposes the delicate balance of international economic relationships. The potential consequences ripple through supply chains, consumer markets, and diplomatic corridors, challenging the post-World War II trade paradigm and forcing nations to recalibrate their economic strategies in real time. Beyond the immediate market reactions, these developments signal a broader philosophical question about economic sovereignty and interdependence. The tariff proposals challenge long-established multilateral agreements, potentially accelerating a transformation in how nations perceive economic collaboration. While the immediate impact is visible in currency fluctuations and market volatility, the long-term implications could reshape global economic architecture, prompting a reevaluation of the U.S. dollar's role as the predominant global reserve currency and testing the resilience of international trade networks.
INDEX:DXYLong
by MorMedia
Will Most Stable Currency Pair Finally Break Its 20-Year PatternThe foreign exchange market stands at a pivotal crossroads as the seemingly unshakeable euro-dollar relationship faces its most significant test since the 2022 energy crisis. Traditional market dynamics are being challenged by an unprecedented confluence of factors: the return of Trump-era trade policies, escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, and diverging monetary paths between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. This perfect storm has pushed the euro to levels not seen since October 2023, prompting leading financial institutions to reassess their long-held assumptions about currency stability. What makes this moment particularly compelling is the broader economic context. While previous threats to euro-dollar parity emerged from singular crises, today's challenge stems from structural shifts in global trade architecture. Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that proposed trade policies could fundamentally alter international capital flows, with the potential to drive the euro below parity to 0.95 or lower – a scenario that would rewrite modern forex history. This isn't merely about numbers; it's about a potential reshaping of global economic power dynamics. The most intriguing aspect of this development lies in its timing. As we approach a period traditionally characterized by dollar weakness – December has seen the greenback decline in eight of the past ten years – markets face a fascinating contradiction. Will historical seasonal patterns prevail, or are we witnessing the emergence of a new paradigm in currency markets? The answer could reshape investment strategies across the globe and challenge long-held beliefs about currency market dynamics. For investors and market observers alike, the coming months promise to deliver one of the most compelling chapters in recent financial history.
Short
by MorMedia
Will Religious Tensions Reshape Europe's Financial Future?Europe stands at a critical crossroads where religious tensions are silently transforming its financial landscape, with the CAC 40 emerging as a crucial barometer of this unprecedented shift. What many market analysts initially dismissed as temporary social friction has evolved into a fundamental force reshaping investment strategies and corporate valuations. The extraordinary security measures deployed for the France-Israel football match – requiring 4,000 police officers – signals a new reality that transcends simple event management, pointing to deeper structural changes in how European markets must operate in an increasingly divided society. The continent's financial centers are witnessing a profound transformation as religious tensions ripple through market fundamentals. In France, where Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim populations intersect, companies are frantically adapting their business models to navigate these uncharted waters. Traditional valuation metrics are proving inadequate as firms face rising security costs, shifting urban demographics, and evolving consumer behaviors driven by religious and cultural dynamics. This new paradigm forces investors to consider whether Europe's markets have entered an era where social cohesion rivals financial metrics in importance. The emerging religious divisions in Europe represent more than a social challenge – they're reshaping the very foundation of market analysis. As witnessed in recent events across Amsterdam, Paris, and other major cities, what begins as cultural tension quickly translates into market volatility, altered consumer patterns, and revised risk assessments. Forward-thinking investors are now recognizing that success in European markets requires a sophisticated understanding of religious and cultural dynamics, marking a revolutionary shift in investment strategy. The CAC 40's journey through these turbulent waters may well predict how global markets will adapt to a world where religious tensions increasingly influence economic outcomes.
EURONEXT:PX1Short
by MorMedia
WTI - How will oil react to the elections?!In the 4H timeframe, oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. In case of rising due to increasing tensions, we can see the ceiling of the channel and sell in that range with appropriate risk reward. If the downward trend continues and the support range is broken, you can buy oil at the bottom of the downward channel. Under President Joe Biden, U.S. oil and gas production has reached new records, and the outcome of the U.S. election is unlikely to significantly impact commodities like energy in the short term. Analysts at Capital Economics believe that the election result will have minimal influence on most commodity prices over the next few months. However, differences in candidates’ views on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and foreign policy toward Iran could notably impact oil and gas prices over the next five years. The CEO of Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. economy is very resilient, expressing concerns over global inflation, spending, and the U.S. budget deficit. He advised focusing on the long-term interest rates in the U.S. Solomon emphasized the importance of U.S. long-term interest rates and mentioned that the Federal Reserve will base its 2025 decisions on economic data. He also noted that geopolitical impacts on Goldman Sachs’ business are minimal but voiced concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Yesterday, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister announced that the country remains committed to maintaining a production capacity of 12.3 million barrels of crude oil per day. In Q3, British Petroleum (BP) reported a net profit of $2.3 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations. This compares to $2.8 billion in Q2 and $3.3 billion in Q3 2023. BP shares have declined by over 14% since the start of the year. BP is also targeting new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to boost oil and gas production. A BP spokesperson stated that the company will continue as a simpler, more focused, and higher-value entity. Other oil companies like Shell and Total are also preparing to release their quarterly reports shortly.
TVC:USOILShort
by Ali_PSND
BTCUSD Shortas Israel and Iran War is on heads so due to undone Retaliatory decision of I-S-R-A-E-L BTC is stuck in a range but technically i am seeing a drop in the price of BTCUSD as BTC can fall to its daily Support level On Weekly to Daily its in Bullish but in H4 to H1 it seems to be Bearish so i am bearish on current moment if Geopolitical tension overcomes to increases we can any unexpected move on the pair but still we are Bearish over the pair to its Daily support level
Short
by Wakeel_Saab
What's unraveling the economic powerhouse of Europe?Once a stalwart of European stability, Germany's economic engine is facing unprecedented challenges. This deep dive explores the intricate factors driving its recession and the far-reaching implications for the continent. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have wreaked havoc on Germany's economy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has disrupted energy supplies, increased production costs, and hindered global trade. Rising interest rates and weak global demand have further exacerbated the downturn. The European Central Bank's aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening investment and spending. Meanwhile, a global economic slowdown, driven by factors such as rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, has reduced demand for German exports, a crucial driver of its economy. The consequences for Germany and Europe are profound, with potential for increased unemployment, slower growth, and political instability. As Germany is one of Europe's largest economies, its downturn has a ripple effect on other countries in the region. The recession could lead to job losses, as businesses cut costs to weather the storm, exacerbating social tensions and increasing the burden on government welfare systems. Slower growth in Germany will contribute to slower growth in the Eurozone as a whole, limiting the ECB's ability to raise interest rates further and potentially hindering its efforts to combat inflation. Economic downturns can often lead to political instability, as governments face increased pressure to implement policies that alleviate economic hardship. This could lead to political gridlock or even changes in government. Can Germany weather this storm? Join us as we delve into the complexities of this economic enigma and explore potential paths forward.
XETR:DAXShort
by MorMedia
Domino Effect -Australia's Exposure to a Sino-Taiwanese ConflictA potential armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses significant geopolitical risks with profound economic implications for Australia. As a key member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Australia’s strategic interests are deeply intertwined with regional stability. The potential impact of such a conflict on the Australian economy. Economic Impact Assessment A Sino-Taiwanese conflict would likely trigger severe economic disruptions for Australia. The nation's reliance on China as a primary trading partner, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors, would exacerbate the negative impacts. Key sectors and their potential implications are outlined below: Mining: As a dominant contributor to Australia's GDP and a significant component of the S&P/ASX 200, the mining sector would face substantial challenges. Disruptions to iron ore and coal exports to China would negatively impact major mining companies such as BHP Group and Rio Tinto, collectively representing approximately 5% of the index. Agriculture: Given China's status as a key market for Australian agricultural products, the sector would experience significant revenue losses. This would affect companies involved in grain, meat, and dairy production, although their overall weight in the S&P/ASX 200 is relatively smaller. Tourism: The tourism industry, still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, would face renewed challenges due to decreased international travel. Qantas Airways, a prominent component of the S&P/ASX 200, would be directly affected by declining passenger numbers. Financial Services: The broader financial system would likely experience increased volatility, credit rating downgrades, and elevated insurance claims. Australia's major banks, including Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ, which collectively hold substantial weight in the S&P/ASX 200, would be exposed to these risks. Implications for the S&P/ASX 200 The S&P/ASX 200, as a market-capitalization-weighted index, would undoubtedly reflect the economic challenges posed by a Sino-Taiwanese conflict. Given the significant weightings of mining and financial services in the index, a sharp decline is highly probable. The severity and duration of the market downturn would depend on the scale and duration of the conflict. Historical Precedent While direct comparisons are limited due to evolving economic structures and geopolitical contexts, historical data from World War II and the Korean War provide valuable insights. Both periods were characterized by significant market volatility, with sharp declines followed by varying recovery periods. Conclusion A Sino-Taiwanese conflict presents substantial economic risks for Australia, with the S&P/ASX 200 serving as a barometer of these challenges. The potential impact on the Australian economy and financial markets underscores the importance of robust risk management strategies and contingency planning.
ASX:XJOShort
by MorMedia
India's Nifty 50: A Rising Star in a Geopolitical StormIn 2023, the Indian stock market, represented by the Nifty 50 index, has emerged as a standout performer. Outpacing its U.S. counterpart, the S&P 500, by a significant margin, the Nifty 50 has captured the attention of global investors. Several factors converge to explain this impressive performance, with geopolitical tensions playing a pivotal role. The Great Manufacturing Shift: India as a Prime Beneficiary One of the most compelling narratives driving India's economic ascent is the global shift in manufacturing. As the world grapples with heightened geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating tensions between the United States and China, businesses are seeking to diversify their supply chains. India, with its vast market, skilled workforce, and government's "Make in India" initiative, has emerged as a compelling alternative to China for many multinational corporations. Diversification of Supply Chains: Companies like Apple and Google are actively exploring manufacturing operations in India to reduce their reliance on China. This trend extends to various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and textiles. Government Support: India's government has proactively created a conducive business environment through infrastructure development, tax incentives, and ease of doing business reforms. These efforts have boosted investor confidence and accelerated the country's industrialization process. India's Economic Characteristics and Domestic Consumption India's strong domestic consumption and the rise in manufacturing are major factors in the country's economic expansion. The demand for goods and services is increasing due to the growing middle class and increased disposable incomes. The approach of consumption-led growth enhances the resilience of the Indian economy by acting as a buffer against external shocks. India's economy boasts several key characteristics: Rapid Growth: India has consistently been one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. Large Domestic Market: With a population of over 1.4 billion, India offers a vast consumer base, driving domestic consumption. Young Population: A large and young workforce provides a demographic dividend, fueling economic potential. IT and Services Dominance: The IT and services sector is a major contributor to India's GDP, with companies excelling in software development, outsourcing, and business process management. Agricultural Importance: Agriculture remains a crucial sector, employing a significant portion of the population, although its contribution to GDP is declining. Challenges and Opportunities While India's economic trajectory is promising, it faces challenges such as: Infrastructure Gaps: Improving infrastructure, including transportation, energy, and digital connectivity, is essential for sustained growth. Poverty and Inequality: Addressing poverty and reducing income inequality remains a priority. Education and Skill Development: Investing in education and skill development is crucial to enhancing human capital. Environmental Concerns: One of the main challenges is balancing environmental sustainability with economic growth. Despite these challenges, India offers immense opportunities for businesses and investors: Large Consumer Market: The growing middle class presents a lucrative market for consumer goods and services. Favorable Government Policies: The government's focus on economic reforms and ease of doing business creates a conducive environment for investment. Digital Transformation: India's rapid adoption of digital technologies presents opportunities in e-commerce, fintech, and digital payments. The Road Ahead While the Nifty 50's performance has been impressive, challenges remain. Inflationary pressures, global economic uncertainties, and the potential impact of a prolonged geopolitical standoff could pose risks. However, India's demographic dividend, its digital transformation, and its focus on renewable energy offer promising avenues for long-term growth. Continued focus on infrastructure, education, and skill development will be crucial for realizing its full potential. In today's complex geopolitical environment, India seems well-placed to take advantage of the opportunities arising from global supply chain disruptions. The performance of the Nifty 50 index reflects India's increasing economic influence and its potential to emerge as a global manufacturing and consumption hub.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by MorMedia
England's Economic Crossroads and Banking ResilienceEngland’s economy is facing a complex array of challenges, driven by domestic social unrest, geopolitical tensions, and evolving labor dynamics. Recent riots, sparked by both marginalized Muslim communities and extreme right-wing groups, highlight deep-seated socio-economic issues. These tensions have been exacerbated by international events, such as the October 7, 2023, incident in Israel, which reverberated through England's Muslim community. In addition to these social and geopolitical pressures, the economic indicators present a mixed picture. Inflation, unemployment, and a housing crisis have strained the economy, while regional conflicts, such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, pose further risks to energy prices, trade, and security. Amidst this backdrop, the Bank of England’s recent declaration that top UK lenders can be dismantled without taxpayer bailouts is a significant milestone. This statement reflects the progress made since the 2008 financial crisis in enhancing the resilience of the UK banking system through stricter capital requirements and resolvability assessments. However, emerging risks such as climate change, cyberattacks, and global financial interconnectedness require continuous vigilance and robust regulation. Inspiration and Challenge: As traders and investors, understanding the interplay between social dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial stability is crucial. England’s current economic state challenges us to think beyond traditional metrics and consider the broader implications of regional conflicts and social unrest on financial markets. The resilience of the UK banking system offers a glimmer of stability, but it also calls for ongoing scrutiny of emerging risks. Engage with this analysis to deepen your strategic insights and navigate the complexities of the global economic landscape.
FTSE:UKXShort
by MorMedia
Title: Geopolitical Tempest Navigating the EUR/ILS Currency PairThe EUR/ILS exchange rate is a crucial indicator of Israel's economic and geopolitical stability in relation to the Eurozone. Recently, it has been under substantial pressure due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. This dynamic interplay of geopolitical risks and economic factors creates a complex environment for the Israeli shekel (ILS) against the Euro (EUR). Key Points 1. Geopolitical Background: The conflict between Israel and Iran, fueled by nuclear ambitions, proxy wars, and direct military engagements, has deep historical, religious, and political roots. 2. Economic Implications: Investor confidence, economic sanctions, and increased military expenditures are critical factors influencing the ILS. Geopolitical instability can reduce investor confidence, cause capital flight, and strain Israel's fiscal budget. 3. Impact on EUR/ILS Exchange Rate: Geopolitical risks lead to a flight to safety, with investors seeking stable currencies like the Euro. Inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and military spending can erode the ILS, while the Bank of Israel's interventions may be limited by persistent tensions. Conclusion The Israel-Iran conflict casts a long shadow over the Israeli economy and the strength of the ILS. As geopolitical tensions persist, the EUR/ILS exchange rate is likely to experience significant volatility. Investors and policymakers must remain vigilant, monitoring developments closely to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities in this uncertain environment.
Long
by MorMedia
The Fear Index and Geopolitical TensionsIn an era marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, the fear index emerges as a crucial tool for traders seeking to navigate turbulent markets. This article delves into the historical significance of the fear index, exploring pivotal moments like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1973 Oil Crisis, and the 2008 Financial Crisis. By understanding how investor psychology and market sentiment intertwine with the fear index, traders can gain a competitive edge. In today's world, marked by unprecedented geopolitical tensions, understanding the fear index has never been more crucial. As global conflicts escalate, the fear index provides essential insights into market sentiment and helps risk managers navigate through these turbulent times. A Geopolitical Powder Keg We are witnessing a convergence of significant geopolitical events: Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have far-reaching implications for global stability. Middle Eastern Volatility: Potential for a full-scale war involving major powers like Israel, the U.S., and Iran. Sino-Taiwanese Tensions: Threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with severe repercussions for the semiconductor industry and global economy. Pro-Palestinian Protests: These could escalate into widespread violence, further destabilizing the political and economic landscape. The Role of the Fear Index The fear index, often measured by market volatility, acts as a barometer of investor sentiment in the face of these geopolitical risks. By closely monitoring the fear index, risk managers can gain early warnings of market disruptions and develop strategies to mitigate potential crises. Historical Context Historical precedents show how the fear index responds to geopolitical tensions: Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): Stock markets plummeted due to heightened anxiety, underscoring the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment. 1973 Oil Crisis: The Arab-Israeli War and subsequent oil embargo led to global economic downturns, reflecting the fear index's potential spike during such crises. 9/11 Attacks: The fear index surged as markets reacted to the unprecedented nature of the terrorist attacks. 2008 Financial Crisis: Global financial instability caused a dramatic increase in the fear index, providing early warnings of the impending market collapse. COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic's economic halt saw the fear index spike, signaling early disruptions. Methodologies for Calculation Understanding how the fear index is calculated enhances its utility: Volatility Indexes (e.g., VIX): Measure implied market volatility. Sentiment Analysis: Assess sentiment through news and social media. Investor Behavior Metrics: Analyze options trading and margin debt levels. Combining these approaches offers a comprehensive view of market fear in response to geopolitical tensions. The Psychological Impact Investor behavior during geopolitical crises is influenced by: Loss Aversion: Heightened sensitivity to potential losses. Herd Mentality: Following the crowd amplifies reactions. Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the probability of easily recalled events. Strategic Applications Risk managers must adopt a holistic approach, integrating the fear index with geopolitical and economic data to develop robust contingency plans. While the fear index can't predict crises' exact timing or magnitude, it provides valuable early warnings to prepare for potential disruptions. Conclusion The fear index is indispensable for navigating today's geopolitically charged environment. By monitoring market sentiment and identifying emerging trends, you can protect your investments from unforeseen events and build resilience. Embrace the insights offered by the fear index to stay ahead in these volatile times.
CBOE:VIXLong
by MorMedia
Gold: A Strategic Asset in an Uncertain WorldGold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been reinforced by recent geopolitical tensions. This analysis explores the factors driving gold prices, including geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and the role of gold ETFs. Gold has proven its resilience as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have fueled demand for gold. While economic factors also influence gold prices, the metal's role as a portfolio diversifier remains compelling. Consider gold ETFs for convenient exposure. Gold serves as a valuable safe-haven asset, particularly during times of geopolitical instability. Key Points: Geopolitical Risks: The article highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions globally and their impact on financial markets. The Middle East, in particular, is identified as a region of significant concern. Gold as a Hedge: Gold's unique characteristics, such as liquidity, store of value, and diversification benefits, make it an effective hedge against geopolitical risks. Economic Factors: While geopolitical factors are emphasized, the analysis acknowledges the influence of economic conditions, including interest rates and inflation, on gold prices. Investment Vehicles: Gold ETFs, like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), are presented as convenient options for investors seeking gold exposure.
AMEX:GLDLong
by MorMedia
Platinum A Complex Equilibrium - Unraveling Market DynamicsThe platinum market is currently navigating a complex equilibrium shaped by a confluence of factors. A persistent supply deficit, driven largely by robust industrial demand, particularly from the automotive sector, has exerted upward pressure on prices. However, the specter of electric vehicle adoption, a long-term threat to platinum demand in the automotive catalyst market, introduces a countervailing force. This dynamic interplay between supply-demand fundamentals and technological disruption creates a challenging environment for market participants. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape, particularly in South Africa, the dominant platinum producer, adds an additional layer of complexity. Labor unrest, infrastructure challenges, and broader political instability in the region can significantly impact supply and, consequently, prices. The broader global geopolitical environment also plays a role, as tensions between major world powers can create uncertainty and market volatility. Despite these headwinds, the potential for inventory depletion and ongoing industrial demand suggest that the market may continue to exhibit bullish tendencies. Yet, the magnitude and timing of these bullish impulses will be contingent upon the evolving dynamics of supply, demand, and geopolitical risks. As such, market participants must adopt a nuanced perspective, carefully considering both the short-term and long-term implications of these interconnected factors. Essentially, the platinum market is a complex system characterized by non-linear relationships and feedback loops. Understanding these intricacies is crucial for developing effective investment and trading strategies.
FX_IDC:XPTUSDLong
by MorMedia
USOUSD Spot Oil Jumps on Geopolitical Escalation LONGSpot Oil on 30-minute chart had a slow rise in the past 24 hours followed by a pause and then a jump on the Israeli retaliation strikes into Iran. Middle East oil shipping in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf are at risk and shipping insurance for ongoing shipments is likely to experience heavy rate increases if shipping does occur. Houthi rebels may resume proxy attacks on the behalf of Iran. New sanctions contemplated against Iran may include increased action on oil exports and the Israelis could target oil infrastructure. Overall, spot oil now has a bullish bias. I see good cause to increase oil based positions at this time. My target for spot oil based on VWAP lines currently on the chart is 87.5 about 4% upside without leveraging. The volume indicator shows increased buying volumes relative to selling. The PVT shows a quick burst of trend momentum while the TTM indictor triggered and has an upgoing histogram.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
FSM a silver junior miner poised to profit on silver's momentum FSM is on a 30-minute chart. The trade idea is that FMS suffers in drops in spot sliver but thrives when spot silver rises as its fixed expenses in mining allow for increases in margin in a curvilinear fashion when spot silver rises. This is more so than a senior miner such as FCX that moves slower when metal prices rise or fall. I see the quick geopolitical dip in spot silver as an opportunity to pick up junior miners ( including GDXJ the ETF) at a discounted price to be held for spot silver recovery and then averaged out for realization of profits.
NYSE:FSMLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
Options Trading is Not about the GreeksCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) On March 24th, I published a trade idea, “Buckle Your Seatbelt for a Market Correction”, where I suggested that the US stock market was due for a major correction. Buying a Put contract on CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures would be a trade to express this market view. How is this trade panning out? • On March 24th, the June S&P futures contract (ESM4) was settled at 5,289.75. The out-of-the-money (OTM) put strike 5,100 was quoted at 63. • To purchase a Put, a trader would pay an upfront premium of $3,150 (= 63 x 50). • On April 18th, the S&P has been down for five straight days, and ESM4 was settled at 5,49, losing about 4.6% since we first placed the trade on. Meanwhile, the 5100 put is now trading at 150.75. • Our put position is valued at $7,537.50 (= 150.75 x 50). If we were to close the trade now, we would realize a hypothetical return of +139.3% (= 150.75/63 -1) in less than a month, excluding transaction cost. While the underlying stock index is lowered for less than 5%, and the put strike is barely in-the-money (5049 is 51 points below 5100), the value of the put contract has been more than doubled. This trade showcases the attractiveness of an options strategy. Firstly, there is time value on the put contract. We have two more months to trade until the options expire on June 21st, the 3rd Friday of the contract month. The probability that the S&P could go significantly lower than 5100 makes the put options very valuable. Secondly, there is a multiplier of 50 built into the options contract. Each index point that the S&P moves in-the-money, the Put position will gain $50 per contract. Thirdly, the volatility of the S&P 500 index has increased 50% in the past month, from 12-12.50 to 18-19.50. Higher volatility makes options contracts more valuable. Options Greeks are Lagging Indicators My trade idea did not price in volatility increase. In fact, it did not even mention any of the options Greeks – Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, and Rho. In my opinion, the Greeks are concurrent indicators or lagging indicators. Take the VIX index as an example. It captures historical volatility about the S&P 500. However, options are priced by the implied volatility. It is the market consensus, or collective sentiments from all the buyers and sellers, about what volatility would be in the future. In this case, historical volatility is not very useful in gauging future volatility. All sophisticated options pricing models eventually bog down to a subjective estimate of the implied volatility. The Greeks are precise about what the market has been, but they are not useful in assessing how market sentiment will be a month from now. We could illustrate this with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which shows real-time market sentiments in Fed rate cut probability. • On March 24th, it indicated the probability of a 25-bp cut in June at 75.5%. There was a 77% chance that Fed Funds move to 4.50%-4.75% by year end, indicating a total of three rate cuts in 2024. Four total rate cuts, which would be a full percentage point lower, was priced at 43% probability. • On April 18th, the probability of a 25-bp cut in June is now down to just 15.3%. The probability for total rate cuts in 2024 are: 2 cuts (32.4%), 1 cut (36%) and no cut (15%). We may recall that only four months ago the market consensus was 6-7 rate cuts. (Link: www.cmegroup.com) If you measured the market last month based on the Greeks, you would have expected the S&P to go higher. Instead, market sentiment turned upside down as March CPI and Nonfarm payroll data completely destroyed the hope of near-term Fed rate cuts. Trading with E-Mini S&P Options In my opinion, the market correction is not over yet. There is a good likelihood that the S&P to move down 10%-15% from its peak of 5,265, to the range of 4,475-4739. Here are the key drivers: • US stock market had a spectacular run in the past two years on the back on AI revolution. While the seven Big Tech companies gained over 50%, the remaining 493 stocks registered low single-digit returns. We are now at the breaking point where the Magnificent Seven could no longer carry the heavy burden of the mediocre performance of the rest. • The lowered expectation of Fed rate cuts results in higher-than-expected future interest rates. This puts downward pressure on company valuation. I had several writings explaining how the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation works. • Escalated geopolitical tension triggers a flight to safe-haven securities. Gold would gain in value while the stock market would decline. CME Group E-Mini S&P 500 Options provide leverage and capital efficiency. Options are based on futures contracts. The contract notional is $50 x S&P 500 Index. On April 19th, the June S&P futures contract (ESM4) is now quoted at 5,031.75. The 4,850-strike put is quoted at 64.75. To purchase a Put, a trader would pay an upfront premium for $3,237.50 (= 64.75 x 50). Hypothetically, if the S&P lowered 10% from its peak to 4,739, the put position would be 111 points in-the-money (= 4850-4739). The trader could exercise the options to capture the price difference or sell the put at a higher price. If the S&P ends up with a smaller correction, the trader could lose money, up to the full amount of the upfront premium. Options traders could find CME’s Options Calculator an easy-to-use tool in structuring their options strategies. The best part, it is free. www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
Too many dangerous dollars on handsFundamentals & Sentiment WTI: In general, there are global drivers for oil demand, amongst them is supply curbs from OPEC. More recently geopolitical risks in Middle east create bias for oil upside. USD: The dollar has been overbought according to CFTC reports. The risk of BoJ intervention is still there, so it's better not buy dollars anyhow as long as USDJPY is near 155. Also, today's US MoM Retail Sales are expected to be worse than last month - a good environment to trade into the event. If the Retail Sales come out stronger than expected, it's better to close the position or tighten stops. Technical & Other - According to seasonals DXY should stay flat for the next 3 weeks - WTI sold off sharply on Friday, so the mean reversion of that move makes sense. Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: UP Long-term: Uptrend Min target: range highs Risk: 0.77% Entry: Market
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Cherry94
USDUSD Oil Prices react to Middle EastOn Thursday January 11th ( earlier today) WTI Crude prices gyrated widely likely in reaction to US /UK intervention on the terrorists who seized a tanker on the behalf of Iraq in the Red Sea / Suez Canal area putting shipping and supply concerns into the oil industry to offset any weak demand. The 15 minute chart shows a megaphone pattern as a demonstration of waves of relative volatility in price action. I have a position shorting oil and will now close that position as I see a long entry developing here. US companies that use rail and pipeline matching domestic production to consumption are less impacted by this oceanic shipping issue. I will focus on them especially. OXY is at the top of the list and then MRO.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
6
YANG ( a 3X leveraged inverse China megacap ETF ) LONGYANG on a 240 minute chart had a reverse head and shoulders pattern last summer. Price rose over the neckline in November and hit an increased trend angle at that time. With a set of VWAP bands anchored to the neckline cross, TANG had pulled back twice to the mean VWAP where it found support, the latter of which was this past week. While price is currently at 15.5, I could reasonably forecast another rise to the second upper VWAP bandline at 18.00 or about 16% upside. Price rose more than 4% today and 20% YTD for January. Fundamentally, China is in a recession. Additionally, the terror and tension in the Red Sea has increased shipping costs and diminished shipping volumes through the Suez Canal a a major gateway to the Eurozone markets or even Western Russia. The CCP has pleaded directly to Iran about this as the whole situation is worsening the China economy ( among others) The idea of China launching a gold standard currency seems to be out of the news at least for now. What is still on the table is Chinese interests in Taiwanese reunification. Any military action would basically flush Chinese stocks into nothingness because a trade war would ensue if not WW III. This lingering in at background is a drag on the China stocks. I see YANG as a safe bet now with an entry just above VWAP with a stop loss above it and 18.00 for the target.
AMEX:YANGLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
MRO US Oil LongThe US Energy Department has announced open bids for oil contracts to replenish the national strategic reserve which was depleted during the prior run up on global oil prices. This is a sure sign that the feds think that spot oil has but in a bottom especially in the context of shipping disruptions and higher insurance costs due to terrorism /piracy in the area of the Red Sea and Suez Canal. In the meanwhile two South American countries are having sovereignty disputes over oil fields and the British Navy is offshore to buttress the interests of Guyana. MRO is a domestic oil producer that is independent of Middle East issues. Its oil is consumed mostly in the US with a little shipping to Asia only. On the 50 minute chart, price downtrended from January 3th through and then below the high volume area of the volume profile. Price has reversed back up and reapproached the evolving high volume area. The dual TF MACD ( by Chris Moody) shows moving average divergence. Chris Moody's dual TF RSI indicator shows the faster TF RSI rising over the slower TF RSI as a sign of bullish momentum. I have taken both a stock and call options position in MRO having zoomed into the 15 minute TF for a good entry. Given the level of challenges current geopolitics presents to smooth flowing and inexpensive shipping of crude oil, I am expectant of significant gains in these positions. I have also looked into a position in OXY and CVE, which is a Canadian crude producer.
MLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
Crude Oil - Correction? Or Change in Trend?The December Crude oil contract has endured a precipitous drop in the past three trading sessions - falling nearly $7 per barrel. Is this just a correction? Are we in the midst of a trend change? The Bullish Case: Crude gapped higher on Monday, October 9th, following the start of the conflict between Hammas and Israel, and the geopolitical risk surrounding the situation served as a bullish catalyst for the crude oil contracts. A primary reason for the rally was anticipated escalation in the conflict, which has yet to materialize - causing the rally to stall. However, the risk of escalation still remains. Third party involvement from other nations or interest groups has the propensity to push crude oil prices even higher than the initial rally following the onset of the conflict. The Bearish Case: The winter months are typically not very kind to crude oil prices. Demand for crude oil wanes as consumers are usually more sedentary during the winter months. The seasonal chart below displays the 5, 10, and 15 year average tendencies for the December Crude Oil contract. Over each of those periods, crude oil prices trended lower from mid-October through November. If escalation does not materialize, it is likely that crude oil will continue to move lower. How Will We Know? In order to keep the uptrend intact, December crude oil will have to defend its recent low around $80/bbl. A turn higher ahead of that point will be a strong indication that crude will buck seasonal tendencies and continue higher. A failure to defend $80/bbl likely indicates that prices will continue to move lower. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CLZ2023
by Blue_Line_Futures
How Would a Major War Impact the US Stock Market?CME: Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), CBOT: Micro Dow Jones ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) In the last two stories, I discussed how the prices of crude oil, a strategic energy commodity, and gold, a safe-haven asset, could soar at wartime. Extended reading: “Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?” Extended reading: “MCO: Options Strategy to Capture Crude Oil Volatility” Today, I turn my focus on the U.S. stock market. The following analysis attempts to address this hypothetical question: How would US stocks be impacted by a major war? While the media constantly blasts breaking news from the Middle East, the US stock market behaves like business as usual. • On Friday October 6th, Dow Jones settled at 33,408. On the Monday after the conflict started, the Dow rose 197 points, or +0.6%, to 33,605. • 1-week change: Dow closed at 33,670 on October 13th, up 0.8%. • 2-week change: Dow closed at 33,127 on October 20th, down -0.8%. • The S&P 500 had a similar price trend. It settled on 4,308 right before the conflict. Price changes were: +0.6% (1-day), +1.5% (1-week), and -2.0% (2-week). What drive the US stock market are still corporate earnings and the Fed: • In the first half of October, strong Q3 earnings season drove stock indexes up; • On October 12th, higher-than-expected US CPI data pushed market indexes down; • October 18th, stock market plunged after the Fed Chair delivered a hawkish speech; • October 19th, Tesla’s Q3 underperformance led the decline of the broad market. All three US market indexes ended with a weekly loss. Time is too young to tell anything about the current conflict. How about the Russia-Ukraine conflict? US stocks were on a downtrend all last year. But I would argue that this was driven by the Fed rate hikes, which pushed interest rates up 525 basis points. Neither the Mideast nor East Europe saw US direct military involvements. Sending billions of dollars in aids to allies may raise federal budget deficit, but it is not likely to have a material impact on earnings for many of the US companies. To fully assess the impact of a major war, we need to find one where millions of US troops were sent to the front line. This analysis examines how the Dow index responded to the two World Wars, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. World War I (July 1914 to November 1918) • Phase I: In 1913-14, the U.S. suffered a two-year recession. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), U.S. GDP dropped by 25.9%. The Dow fell from 68 points in September 1912 to 52 points in July 1914, down 24%. • Phase II: The Great World helped end the recession. In the first two years, the U.S. remained neutral. American companies supplied vast quantities of arms and logistic materials to the warring countries in Europe. The Dow gained 106 points, up+104%. • Phase III: The U.S. declares war on Germany on April 6, 1917. The U.S. military grew from 128,000 to 4 million soldiers. Initially, entering the war produced a shock to the U.S. economy. The Dow fell to 72 points (-32%). However, wartime production helped companies expanded quickly. By October 1918, the Dow rebounded to 86, up 19%. • Phase IV: After the war ended, U.S. companies actively helped Europe rebuild. The Dow rose 118 points by October 1919, up 37%. Commentary: WW1 was mainly fought on European soil. Whether as wartime suppliers for Europe or as government contractors, U.S. companies saw expanded production and higher earnings. At the end of the war, the U.S. overtook Great Britain as the No. 1 World Power. The Dow index rose 127% throughout WW1. World War 2 (September 1939 to August 1945) • Phase I: In 1937-38, the U.S. experienced a major recession, with GDP falling by 18.2%, according to the NBER. The Dow went from 188 in February 1937 to 98 points in March 1938, down 48%. A year before the outbreak of WW2, U.S. economy was in a slow recovery. The Dow grew to 135 points in August 1939, up 38%. • Phase II: Germany started WW2 by invading Poland in 1939. Like in WW1, the U.S. remained neutral for two years and acted as a wartime supplier. As the Axis power threatened the very existence of the Free World, both Wall Street and Main Street went into a panic. The Dow closed at 111 points in November 1941, down 26%. • Phase III: Japan attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. President Roosevelt declared war and joined the Allies. The U.S. military expanded from 330,000 to 16 million troops. Once again, U.S. manufacturers transformed into wartime production. Huge government orders helped them grow rapidly. By September 1945, the Dow rebounded to 180 points, a 62% gain. • Phase IV: The Marshall Plan made the U.S. a major force in rebuilding Europe after the war. U.S. companies benefited from these massive construction efforts. The Dow continued to rise, reaching 212 points, up 18%, by May 1946. Commentary: From a purely economic point of view, U.S. companies saw rapid growth in production scale, revenue, and profit during wartime. After the war, the U.S. consolidated its position as the No. 1 World Superpower. The Dow rose 57% throughout WW2. Korean War and Vietnam War • The Korean War lasted three years from its outbreak on June 25, 1950, to the signing of the armistice on July 27, 1953. The size of the U.S. military was as high as 6.8 million troops during this period. About 480,000 fought in Korea. • The Dow went from 210 to 277 points during the war, up 32%. • Vietnam War lasted 10 years from March 1965 to April 1975. The U.S. military stood at 8.7 million troops. About 2.7 million soldiers fought in Vietnam. • The Dow was 900 in 1965 and ended at 815 ten years later, down 9%. Commentary: In WW2, the U.S. sent 3 million troops to Europe and 1.8 million soldiers to the Pacific theater. For a comparison, the Korean War had about one-tenth of the fighting forces. It did not have a big impact on the U.S. economy and the stock market. Troops size in Vietnam was five times bigger. However, in this decade-long war, the stock market was influenced by many other factors, from the Civil Right movement to the Space Race; and from Nixon's historic visit to China to his resignation from the presidency. Hedging with Micro Dow and Micro S&P Index Futures In conclusion, my analysis shows that wars did not have a negative impact on U.S. stock market. Contradicting our intuition, U.S. stock market indexes generally rose during a major war and continued to go up after the war. Why is this the case? All the wars we examined here were fought outside of the U.S. soil. In fact, no war has been fought in continental U.S. since the Civil War, for nearly 160 years. Even in the two World Wars, the U.S. did not pay the heavy toll of civilian casualty and property destruction most warring countries suffered. Furthermore, the U.S. government has been a “going concern” and the U.S. stock market operate at peace time and in wars. You can’t say the same for Germany, France, Italy, Russia, the Austria-Hungarian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Japan Empire, or China. With two reginal military conflicts fighting simultaneously, the risk of a global conflict increases exponentially. For a rational investor, this is a good time to plan for global asset allocation. Those investors holding assets in foreign countries could consider hedging with U.S. stock market index futures. Whenever the next major geopolitical crisis break outs, assets in foreign markets and in foreign currencies may decline in value faster than that of the U.S. stocks. In the cases we illustrated, U.S. stock index could rise during wartime. CBOT Micro Dow Futures ( XETR:MYM ) is notional on $0.50 times the DJIX index. At Friday closing price of 33,222, each December contract MYMZ3 is value at $16,611. Each long or short futures contract requires an initial margin of $800. CME Micro S&P Futures ( FWB:MES ) is notional on $5 times the S&P 500 index. At Friday closing price of 4,244.75, each December contract MESZ3 is value at $21,223.75. Holding one contract requires an initial margin of $1,120. Investors could consider a “Buy and Hold” strategy for as long as they hold assets that are weaker and/or less safe than the US stocks. For futures hedging, this strategy entails buying the most liquid nearby contract, holding it until contract expiration month, and then rolling it over to the next liquid contract. Both MYMZ3 and MESZ3 expire on December 15th, the third Friday. By one or two weeks before the expiration, investors could close out the open positions and buy the March 2024 contracts, which are MYMH4 and MESH4, respectively. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by JimHuangChicago
3