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Geopolitics

💥 Natural Gas Gas Gas 📈Do I have to recap the current geopolitics for you? Germany is navigating to its black-out because the gas supply from Russia is being capped (stupid German politicians but okay). Because of the lack of nuclear energy, the Europeans will have a certain electricity problem - at least Germany in the coming winter. So, they will import US natural gas on a large scale. That's the story in a nutshell. The FED and ECB have bloated the circulating money so that some inflation will play its part too. Looking at the technicals: We are about to break this triangle formation to the upside. If this breakout gets confirmed, I'm expecting perhaps a re-test of the trendline or breakout level and then a further upward move. According to the seasonality of the last ten years, Natural Gas has the first spike at the end of April , after this a little bit higher after the middle of May before dropping hard at the beginning of June . Honestly, I don't know if the seasonality in these global circumstances plays a dominant role. It depends on how strong the inflation kicks in. So I'll decide later if I exit my position in May or if I hodl until October/November. No investment advice - just my 2 cents on this topic. ;)
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by p4917
5
USDCNH Update - Major Breakout UnderwayIf you bought this pair when I first featured it here, you have made money. If you were leveraged 50:1 - which - often is the case in forex, you have likely returned more (% returned) in this trade than what you can expect in three years of investing in a vanilla benchmark-tracking 401K. I remain long USDCNH and will continue to cover it for the foreseeable future. Something to consider: such a rapid deterioration of the Yuan is reason to speculate the Chinese economy is becoming increasingly decoupled from anything that resembles the last 10-12 years of price action. For example, if the Yuan were to surpass $7.20, I would start to suspect two possible (again I can't "predict" anything) situations: 1. The Chinese economy in severe distress (hopefully not). 2. Intentional disregard for participation in the global economy, as it exists currently (hopefully not). Again, we are not there YET; all we can do is read the chart and analyze information / data as it becomes available. Pray for peace. God Bless
Long
by ChiefMacro