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GLD

GOLD REVERSAL WITH FRACTAL H&SHere is a multi-timeframe fractal analysis for Gold priced in USD. Looks can be deceiving but it appears a head and shoulders pattern has formed signaling a short term price reversal in the yellow metal. This pattern has potential to set off a chain reaction of bearish chart patterns and downward price movement. Use stop loss as appropriate as these are irrational markets and volitility could spike at any moment. To validate, looking at the DXY, the chart seems to show the opposite with a double bottom reversal pattern beginning bullish series of movements. Good Luck Traders!
TVC:GOLDShort
by HandofGold
1
Golden Opportunities- lessons from the last two yearsIt all started with gold prices falling in 2018, and after a while, I started looking for potential opportunities in Gold. What followed was a long time friend by the same namesake suddenly popped up to ask for my opinion specifically about gold... and this was two years ago today, short of a few days, in mid-August 2018 (see chart by zooming out). Since then, the gray arrows mark the theoretical ideal entry points and the white arrows are my real entry points. You can see a particular pattern here, which I spoke of previously, where it is more favorable a time for entry based on a set of rules that includes technicals and patterns, providing a higher probability of a good profit, be it for a trade, investment, or longer term holding. Coming back to the last two weeks, I have had many people asking about gold, and my opinion about it, etc. many are ready to enter the gold market. You see, most of it was sparked off by the recent gold rush (as is always), and I noticed that often, there is a lack of rules from the beginning, for entry nor for exit. So herein is a visual set of rules I have for entry in gold which were tested over the last two years... 1. Price must break above a down sloping trend line; and 2. MACD must cross the zero line; and 3. Price must be higher than the recent highs (of the last 11/13/21, whichever is preferred) These rules work very well, particularly when two conditions are met: 1. Weekly chart is favorable in trend (this case, trending up); and 2. There is a strong fundamental reason (this case is very robust for Gold to be in favour) So there you go... I hope everyone can see that to buy gold at the current time (or In recent weeks) is probably not as favorable as you would like it to be, notwithstanding that Gold may advance higher at some point, anyways. In fact, it is projected that gold should be topping out around 2100, next week perhaps (reference the white line).
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Auguraltrader
Gold - Fibonacci Cheat SheetGold played out exactly as planned and squeezed up to the 0.618 Fib Extension around $2,070 taking out all the short sellers with little to no resistance. Although I am still long GLD, GDX, SLV, I've closed out my Futures positions for $2,154.50 profit and will wait for a better swing trade setup (entries/exits linked below). Setups: 1. Continue squeezing up from here. Buy on daily close above 0.618 fib @ $2,070. 2. Chop sideways between $2,000 and $2,070 before moving up. 3. Dip lower and find support. Lot's of chop before a swing higher.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lynaldendips
Micro Gold Analysis using 4H chart.The 4H Gold futures chart GC1! is showing a stall in prgoress, after a two week massive rally that saw Gold move ~10% since 20 July. Clearly, this is a late phase of the current rally, and MACD is showing bearish divergence upon retracement. In cases like these, Gold is now rangebound between the green and red resistance and support lines, respectively. It should break upwards or downwards in days to come, with almost equal bias for either case. The bull case is a continuation of the robust Gold uptrend an the bear case is a decent retracement that is just about due, having hit the 2000 target just (as earlier expected). So, in other words, easily possible for slightly more upside just over 2000 in the coming week or two, BUT also may start a decent retracement upon break down. Watch for it... (Additional reading: reference relationship to silver rallies as well)
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
Gold - the bigger glitter pictureWas just having an interesting conversation with a friend earlier today, and this is dedicated to those interested, as he is, in gold. The Monthly Gold GC1! Chart analysis shows a couple of patterns... Firstly, it is obvious that Gold does a hard rally, dip dive and then higher high type of pattern over the years, spanning larger and larger magnitudes. Each (almost parabolic) strong rally is followed by a 60ish percent dip, only to recover over time for higher highs. Secondly, noted a bowl pattern in recent years after the 2011 high. This is highly suspect to be a Cup and Handle pattern, with the handle part due to retrace about 60ish percent from the current record highs. Taken together, confluence of both patterns, corroborated with fundamental factors, puts Gold ready for a higher high, but likely after a retracement to about 1485-1550 levels. IF gold pushed higher, then retracement levels may only reach 1600 at the lowest... So plan and be prepared. Have a set of rules. Stick to it, else review objectively to adjust where necessary.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
2
Case for a weak US Dollar Four factors that typically influence the dollar’s direction have shifted from bullish to bearish since the onset of the coronavirus crisis: 1) FOMC has shifted to a zero-rate policy • US interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are negative • Growth expectations have slowed while inflation expectations have risen… sending Real Interest Rates down • Fed sharply increased access to U.S. dollars through its swap facilities with other central banks, increasing the supply of dollars in the global economy and enabling greater access to dollars to a wide set of economies at lower cost. 2) US Growth likely will underperform other major economies due to COVID a. The slow U.S. response to the coronavirus crisis has altered expectations about economic growth relative to major country peers. Outbreaks in Europe and China appear to have peaked, while in the U.S. cases are still rising. Consequently, the U.S. economic recovery is likely to take longer, with higher unemployment and weaker consumer spending. b. The European Union’s recovery fund marks a step toward greater mutualization of debt (combination of debt across Europe Union)—a factor that can reduce the perception of risk around the euro currency. c. Recent purchasing managers index (PMI) data suggest that the U.S. economic rebound is leveling off while growth is rising in most other regions. 3) Political uncertainty has risen a. Rising tensions between the U.S. and China b. Upcoming presidential election, make the outlook for the U.S. less certain. With less clarity about the direction of policy or its implications for the economy and regulations, foreign investors may begin to shy away from U.S. investments. c. While the US dollar is still a safe-haven currency in times of global turmoil, in the absence of a crisis, the outlook for other countries looks more predictable. 4) Increasing US budget deficit will need to be financed with foreign capital a. Historically, a rising budget deficit has often been a leading indicator of dollar weakness. b. Because the U.S. is a net debtor nation, a rising budget deficit needs to be financed with foreign investment.
AMEX:UUPShort
by dorfmanmaster
Gold looks ready for a shallow retracementThe Gold chart shows a magnificent bull rally recently, and it stopped short just before 2000. The candlesticks indicate a possible stall, albeit temporary. The MACD is similarly pointing to a stall of sorts too. Given that Gold likes to rally hard and stall, it is likely to be retracing to about 1920-1940 area, before a last attempt to 2000 (or Intraday pop to 2000 for an anticipated double top). System buy signal was triggered at1640 previously and it has been a good run. Real entry was upon triangle breakout marked by the white arrow. And previously projected movement plotted by the orange arrows, which clearly appear to be underestimating the extent of the rally. Watch that Gap...
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
Gold Parabola is on boosters...and it will burn out in the coming months . This presents a very good opportunity to board the train at the last station of call, without a doubt. Thing is... expect a good pullback mid to late August (3-4 weeks time) and Gold should be good for the picking towards the end of the year. Technically, Gold is very bullish, and a real trade entry is marked on 14 May, when a retracement had a flag/pennent break out. The grey arrow shows another possible entry point that would have been about 8-11% profitable. The point here is to know that this uptrend is robust, have entry rules upon end of retracements, and know when price goes parabolic. Gold is crazy bullish, not yet overstretched, and will have strong retracements for more bullish waves to come. So prepare. On a side note, watch also the miners, but do be aware that these miners are also affected by the equity market currents. Enjoy the ride!
TVC:GOLD
by Auguraltrader