Grainstrader — Trading Ideas on TradingView

November Soybeans Test 1300 The November soybean contract tested 1300 per bushel on Tuesday, trading all the way up to 1303 ½, before ultimately settling at 1296 ¾. The question is now - where do we go from here? Psychologically Significant Resistance Failing to close above 1300 means we failed to close above a psychologically significant resistance level at 1300. Moreover, we’ve previously identified 3-star resistance between 1294 and 1299 ¾. Because we closed within that resistance pocket, it’s possible that we test 1300 and beyond once again in Wednesday’s trading session. But what if we don’t? If the market corrects lower on the failure to trade through resistance, where do we find support? Previous Resistance Becoming Support If we reject higher prices in tomorrow’s trade, previous resistance between 1280 and 1285 ¼ should serve as the first line of defense. Meaning, that if we see prices sell off throughout the session on Wednesday, we should expect prices to bounce back somewhere between 1280 and 1285 ¼. If we cut through 1280 rapidly, the next sufficient support pocket may factor in near the 38.2% retracement level between the May 31st and July 24th price extremes - coming in around 1249-1250. The Bottom Line We are in the midst of a pivot in the November soybean contract. Tomorrow’s price action should provide guidance on the intermediate-term’s price trajectory. Last week’s USDA report was mostly supportive of the soybean complex, and export sales have performed well over the past 6 weeks. That said, net-exports remain lower than they were at this time last year, and global demand remains deflated. Pay close attention to tomorrow’s closing prices as they may indicate the direction of the trend over the next 2-4 weeks. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

WEAT- Wheat ETF at buy point LONG WEAT the Wheat EFT has been volatile of late due to the Bakc Sea shipping deal falling apart when Russia refused to renew it. Brazil has been trying to increase whet exports to pick up from the fall off of Ukrainian shipments to Africa and others. On the 4H chart, WEAT has fallen 15% from the double tops of July demonstrating the high volatility in what is typically a slow-moving commodity. WEAT is now 5% above the support trendline and about 14% below the horizontal resistance of those double tops. This is a favorable r:R ratio. I will go long here assuming there is now breakthrough in the near future with the resumption of the Black Sea grain deal to impact the supply-demand imbalance and destabilize the price rise. I will look into a call option trade as well.

CORN wedge / triangle coiling for breakout LONG CORN on the daily chart since late June has fallen to the present level with a flat or slowly falling support line. I see this as a falling wedge or a flat bottom triangle slowly setting up a breakout whose upside could be 30% or more. Price had a nice green engulfing bar to finish a down week in the general markets. CORN does not follow the general market. It is following the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal and the increases in the Brazil export levels. Brazil is coming into its growing season now as it is in the southern hemisphere and spring approaches. The chart shows CORN inside the triangle/wedge and is approaching its acute corner. I see this as a long trade setup which I will take. If you want to trade this trade and am curious as to the specifics as I see them, leave a comment.

CORN rises off a pivot LONG CORN, the ETF tracking spot corn and corn futures has ended its down trend on the 15 minute chart. The pivot is not a surprise given the issues related to wheat in the Black Sea shipping with the Ukraine war escalating onto the sea and the grain export deal falling apart. The Price Momentum Oscillator which might be considered a leading indicator is showing bullish divergence.Volatility is steady and without spikes. The bias here is for bullish momentum to more forward with increasing amplitude given the fundamental geopolitical context. I will buy CORN long and may enter a position on the futures markets.

May Wheat futures: Daily trend reversal This setup can lead to a larger failure of a weekly decline signal, which could cause a major move in $ZW_F. I'm long May futures here, paying close attention to how it develops, if the signal isn't stopped the trade could be held for longer until the chart evolves into a higher timeframe trend potentially, that would be the ideal scenario here. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.

Corn prepares for a bullish move🤘As described here - I'm planning to catch the breakout. Let's see if this plays out as I think. In any case - I wish you a good 2023 with lots of good trades. ;)

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Wheat Rally back on with Russian Annex Wheat surged $60 last night as Russia annouced votes in the local donbas regions they control in Ukraine. Critical to the wheat exports the port in that area also means perhaps sanctions and increased fighting may hurt global supply already under pressure. Adding to momentum is global headline news about beer shortages which adds to the grain rally. As long as these issues persist Wheat may trade aggressively higher as commodites move alot more sharply with the start of the war brining highs of $1300.

Corn Corn Corn 🌽🌽🌽This is my plan for corn. It is being orientated mainly on seasonality. That means: I expect the price to drop a bit further or to go sideways during this summer. According to seasonality, the low should occur around September. Then the corn price should rise again according to typical seasonal patterns. IF the FED keeps increasing the interest rates, the dollar's value will increase, and the price of corn shouldn't get so high. IF the FED stops increasing the interest rates, the price of corn gets an inflation bonus on top. I expect a food shortage to come up at the end of this year or next year, maybe because of the lack of fertilizer, infrastructural problems, or something else.