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Graphicanalysis

Does this seem like Goodbye to third world countries!The Brazilian fiscal issue is not going well. Therefore, it directly reflects on the IBOV index, especially for companies linked to the domestic economy, which is very dependent on family income and low interest rates (SELIC) to keep their activities up to date. This was already written in the stars. Sometimes we need to be seers. Lol The growing number of RJ (Judicial Reorganization) is a worrying factor at this time, and opens up gaps for it to contaminate the entire (domestic) consumer sector, from durable to non-durable goods. The big problem for now would not be the slowdown in the economy, as it is to be expected that soon after a big "boom" of easy money, things will start to get strange and to maintain this "growth" more money needs to be injected. That's where the danger lies. How can we keep the economy running if we have a lack of money in the Brazilian market? The only way out for the government would be via interest rates (SELIC), reducing it, to "artificially" heat up the economy and also put a definitive damper on supposed growth. Looking at it in a simplistic way, it is not the high interest rates in Brazil that are strangling the economy, but rather the lack of credibility and especially of decent, long-term projects that involve foreign money. Therefore, reducing interest rates (SELIC) for now will not solve anything for Brazil, it will only advance the process of "euthanasia" of the strong, but weakened, Brazilian economy. As is to be expected, "Brazil does not miss the opportunity to miss great opportunities." Another factor that is in evidence is that we see foreigners rescuing their rich money from emerging markets, this is a bad sign, after all, something big could be coming later on a global level, impacting all countries across the globe. We are still working within the corrective bias described in the previous analysis, so the most interesting support point for the moment is the 124K range (psychological support), but rational support is found at 121.8K. Below, I leave an image of the bearish pivot on the monthly chart pointed out by the SETUP used. He mentions that the loss of the 126.6K range sets precedents for sharper corrections, as there are almost 50 days working in this price range. Note. The red lines are support points. The loss of it sets precedents for prices to seek the white line and, consequently, the yellow lines. This is important? We never learn! Do your analysis and good business. Be aware. If you buy, use Stop Loss. See other graphical analyzes below.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOV
by MacD_Bollinger
It's strange - But those are the prospects!-Seriously and based on current events, I don't see the SPX index losing the 3785 region. -Price inflation seems to want to cool down, giving loopholes for the FED to only maintain interest rates at current levels, with this, the wave of uncertainties that hovered over scholars in economic affairs, make them see (erroneously) that the “worst ” moment may have passed. Big mistake! -We know that this is not the case, because, after forceps containment in inflationary scenarios, the whiplash effects return with the same intensity that caused them to be contained (since global demand + economic contraction + unbridled money printing = stagnation/high inflation). -But this does not mean that the "post" FED will not bring inflation above 5.0% again, since the control of American inflation is being controlled by administered prices (oil, energy and commodities in general). -I believe that the worst moment in the short term has passed, but the worst moments in the medium and long terms still need to be accounted for. $ Let's go graphics! $ -The monthly chart still shows us that the trend is for a long-term increase, after having formed a high pivot, and it still hasn't lost the region of 3785 pts. I think pivots on monthly charts throw us into long-term trends! -On the weekly chart, the trend is still up, as well as on the monthly chart, as we had the gold region of the FIBONACCI being reached, and a correction up to the 3960 range will be seen as a routine correction, pushing us further tall. -The only timeframe that shows divergence from the higher timeframes is the daily chart, and it is showing me that we have a bearish pivot formed that intends to look for the 3990 (3960) region as a support point, which corroborates the thesis of healthy correction indicated in the weekly chart. --Do we have in that green box marked on the chart a price accumulation region and a probable point of stop for the declines? -I believe that only time will tell us the answer! It is clear that the global moment is delicate, and the world's central banks are doing their job to contain inflation. -It will be hard work, but those who are prepared will be able to reap good results from the inhospitable scenario that is hovering over global economies! -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
SP:SPX
by MacD_Bollinger
Is very strange.The SPX index is very strange. -Some indicators are showing improvement, such as the drop in oil prices, which helps to cool down US inflation. -There is another indicator, the FED, which does not sharply raise the interest rate, just keeping it at current levels, that is, keeping the rate above 4% p.a. throughout 2023. -We have a bullish pivot formed on the monthly chart, which, given the current circumstances, may want to go further, however, with the release of key companies' balance sheets, it may form a nice buying trap. -On the weekly chart we also had a bullish pivot forming the correction of the bullish pivot of the monthly chart, in the region of 50% of the FIBO, and this pivot managed to reach the region of 1,618 of FIBO, leaving only one correction until the region of 3900 to continue with strength and seek more accentuated regions. -Prices have finally broken the major downtrend line and, just below this line, we have the long average, and it could serve as support for prices. -Can we count on the bulls and see the index rising again and looking for the region of 4400? -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews!
SP:SPX
by MacD_Bollinger
3
-Dissecting the graphic times!-In a previous analysis (click here to see it), we had an obstacle to be overcome, the region of 3961, it was overcome, now let's analyze the possibilities of monthly, weekly and daily. -The monthly chart is showing us the possibility of an uptrend with prices not losing the 3800 region, and working above the 4100 range. -We had a strong move up from its last bottom on 10/13 from 3491 to its most recent top at 4100 where we can see a routine correction in the 50% range of all move up. -On the weekly chart, we have momentary confirmation of an uptrend with prices above 3906, targeting the previous top at 4100 in the first moment. -The 4081 region is highly relevant and needs to be overcome if the index wants to reach higher levels. If prices do not break this region (4081), we may have corrections that reach the region of 3852 again. -As with the monthly and weekly charts, the daily chart has also formed a short-term uptrend that could target the long average, or, going further, the 4083 region at the downtrend line. -Will the prevailing downtrend go away from view? We look forward to the next few days. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
SP:SPX
by MacD_Bollinger
The strength is missing, where's the strength?-The bias of the SPX index is still bearish as shown in previous analyses. See the reasons by clicking here and here . -Prices are still working inside the huge bearish channel and respecting the long average and LTB as resistance. -The daily chart even formed a high pivot (repeat) to try to reach the 4000 region, however, if prices do not manage to stay above 3961 we will see a test at 3800. -On the hourly chart we see prices losing the long average, therefore, it opened precedents for testing in the following regions: 3866 and 3852, where, with prices working below 3852, we can have a test at 3791. -Tesla pursued the planned target, will the asset now hold above $102? See by clicking here! -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
SP:SPXShort
by MacD_Bollinger
2
2023, will be the year of review of "valuations"?-The risk adjustments that many "analytical houses" will make in their "rebalances" of hedged assets, will suggest that the "valuations" of the companies are high. -We may see an increase in the US interest rate, therefore, we will see the earnings expectations of companies dependent on cheaper loans being reduced quarter by quarter in the first six months of 2023. -A preponderant factor that may directly interfere with assets around the world are issues related to the containment of American inflation, which directly impacts the inflation of several countries via exchange rate and, consequently, via the interest rate of central banks, bringing even more certainty as a possible global recession. --If the first six months of the year pass without many surprises in the American inflationary field, we may have a reduction in the perception of risks, bringing again the flow of foreign capital to the most promising emerging countries, making the wheel of wealth turn again. --With so many risks on the horizon, the wisest thing for anyone looking to buy the stock market is to opt for commodity assets, or for assets with greater exposure to the external environment due to the “exchange rate” factor. -Despite so much bad news on the radar, we should not fail to look at the countless good companies that have almost priced their discounts. "Open your eyes". -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews!
SP:SPX
by MacD_Bollinger
4
I threw in the towel, I'll think like Elliott!-In a previous analysis ( see here ) I showed that the cryptocurrency is inside a large descending bullish wedge and that its destination is likely to be the second “third” of the huge triangle, in the region of $11K. -Considering that the world lives from economics cycles, nothing fairer than thinking that cryptos also go through this process. -Therefore, I would like to say that we are experiencing leg 5 of ELLIOTT's theory of waves, where, after wave 5, we can have the waves of ABC corrections further ahead and surf considerable highs. -Remember, ELLIOTT's theory says the following about price behavior: “Emotion, Impulse and Subjectivity” where; a) Emotion: the emotions of buyers and sellers directly interfere with the values, and we can see a large volume and transcribe the price emotions in graphs and with that we can even establish the real price of an asset and thus make the best decision; b) Impulse: Is when investors simply follow the flow (currently falling) reflected directly in impulse, not using their decisions in technical or fundamental analysis of what the market is showing, this impulse effect is better known as “ herd effect”. c) Subjectivity: It is the sum of the emotion and impulse principles described above, therefore, human psychology has direct interference in the oscillations that occur in the market, and through this understanding, Elliot Waves serve to explain what led to the evolution or fall of price of an asset. -As relevant as understanding the principles, is understanding the patterns of this theory. -Elliott's theory patterns are divided as follows: "five trend waves" (currently falling) and three correction waves currently experienced, so we have; “12345 of trend and ABC of trend correction”. -Treating and using ELLIOTT's theory requires time and study, above, I have described only the important points, which should be detailed for better applicability in our daily lives. -ELLIOTT -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MacD_Bollinger
2
-That scares me!!! But I'm glad I can sell!!!-Looking at a graph like this gives me unprecedented fear, as it seems to me that the asset is on the brink of a precipice, ready to be thrown. -The daily chart shows the possibility of a rebound to the region up to the previous bottom at $137.64, where it will pull back and look for the region of $117.36. -If there is a test in the region of $117.36, it could open a graphic abyss for the asset, where its salvation will be in the following regions: $103.30 (weekly long average) and, finally, $93.89 which I think it would be a big catastrophe if prices reach that level, but there is a big “GAP” in this region that needs to be closed. -Hour chart suggests prices are looking for the long average region at $142.82 to “pull back” and fall again. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by MacD_Bollinger
-Accumulation of continuation?-The High pivot pointed by SETUP on the weekly chart. -First pivot high formed on the daily chart's accumulation. -Second attempted bullish pivot formed on the daily chart's accumulation. It wasn't very far. -Third and last attempt to pivot the accumulation. Will this time go after the FIBO gold region at $139.66? -Hour chart suggests that long-term (buy and hold) are defending the bottom region at $102.2, as such, we can see prices going only as low as $135.12. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
NASDAQ:META
by MacD_Bollinger
More falls? 4999 could be just around the corner!-The outlook for the dollar is to test the median of the channel in the 5059 range in the short term. -A large part of this perspective is due to the approval of the well-dried transition PEC, with a maximum duration of one year, but, in Brazil, everything that is temporary becomes permanent from one hour to the next, and I would not be surprised in the second half of 2023 we have a “beautiful novelty” in relation to the continuity of such PEC (with another name, of course). -The daily chart's bearish pivot shows declines to the 5016 region as the first stage. We have the long average at the moment serving as support and, just below, the median of the channel. -Will we see the dollar losing strength around the world? We have the DXY opening its beak, but it might want to make a reraise (FED)! -The hourly chart made this pivot and failed to advance, setting precedent for a retest at 5132 should prices fail to open above 5176. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
BMFBOVESPA:WDO1!
by MacD_Bollinger
Brazil is a Mustang!?-I begin my humble analysis with a paradoxical sentence: “Brazil does not lose the opportunity to lose great opportunities”. -Brazil looks like that beautiful Ford Mustang parked in the garage, however, with a little thing out of the axis. It has no wheels. -Despite being without the beautiful wheels, it still manages to leave the place, and that means that the powerful engine under the hood (agribusiness, mining and oil) does its job very well, worthy of a beautiful car. - Now I'm thinking to myself. If without wheels this car manages to walk, even if dragging itself, imagine if this same car had at least one scooter wheel (administrative and tax reforms), how prosperous and powerful it would be. But there is an old saying that is used in Brazil that is exactly like that. “God does not give wings to snakes”. -By making an analogy, Brazil is still a small baby compared to the world's economies. As it is an extremely young economy, Brazil has little commercial history with the world, as it recently opened up to global trade, more precisely in 1990, and despite this young economic opening, it is already part of the select group of countries that it has strong influences in some key sectors of the global value chain, too bad the country didn't discover this. (lol) -Can we expect improvements for the future of Brazil? As previously stated, “Brazil does not miss the opportunity to lose great opportunities”. $ Let's Graph $ -The index has found the long average, and it could be the stumbling block to a steeper climb. We had a beautiful bullish pivot formed that is managing to advance, however, it is in a region of strong resistance (previous bottoms). -The non-breaking of the long average, and the prices not advancing up to the FIBO yard of 1,618, we may have retreats to the region of 106.K and finally, at 103.7K, therefore, the “bulls” need to take the strength to missing yard if you want to advance to new heights. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOV
by MacD_Bollinger
4
$78.50 could be right around the corner!-After a tougher stance by the Fed, Amazon's shares have been suffering consecutive falls throughout 2022, despite their constant spikes above 15% when the news published by the media comes in a more "dovish" tone (laughs). -The most recent bearish pivot on the monthly chart takes us down to the $78.50 region, in the 2018 price accumulation region and the bottom of the 2020 pandemic. -We may have a pivot high rebound wanting to form on the daily chart with prices going above $88.36 bound for the previous top at $96.59. -Will the FED adopt a more lenient stance (decrease or stop the increase in interest rates) and remove once and for all the final destination of the asset that the bearish pivot of the monthly chart shows ($78.50)? -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by MacD_Bollinger
2
It will be possible?-With the prices of various commodities above average, economies suffer from skyrocketing survival and, consequently, suffer from skyrocketing interest rates at national central banks and economic slowdown (growth). -Could we see oil trading at $65.00 a barrel? -The “black gold” is also included in this package, and it is the primary resource for economies around the world, as it is through it that more than 65% of products are distributed (air, road and water transport), in addition to being produced several other derivatives of this commodity. -If an economy wants to grow, it has to control the rise in commodity prices, especially energy commodities. -The commodity in question has been undergoing correction for a long time, largely due to the recessionary scenario to come, but, at the moment, we may have a somewhat interesting recovery, causing prices to test the range of $85.49. -After this test at $85.49, and not having the strength to continue with the rise, we can have a sharper correction, looking for the following targets: $67.05 and $56.86. -With the agreement to limit the price of Russian oil, I would not rule out after a short rebound, prices would seek the region of $67.05. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
TVC:USOIL
by MacD_Bollinger
The BTC thirds and their supports!-Who will pray the rosary at the end of this BTC fight, “bulls” or “bears”? -For many months the “crypto” has been at full steam in a downtrend, and has not found the strength, or rather reasons, to end its predominant trend and go back up! -The above chart pattern suggests that BTC is working on a large “bullish descending wedge”. -If so, we have a long way to go to the “2nd third” of the descending triangle to find support and go back up. -According to the triangle plot (descending wedge), the “thirds” supports are: $17.8K, $10.5K and $6.3K. -It is worth remembering that the first support of the “1st third” at $17.8K was, in parts, respected, as we had prices sambaing above this region for four months until it made its decision and lost support, falling to the region of $15 ,5K. The “1st third” support coincides with the December 2017 top. -If the figure is taken seriously, we may see prices looking for support in the “2nd third” region, at $10.5K, the region of strong resistance from the “pre-covid” period. -The quest for the “3rd third”, in my opinion, will only occur if the “fundamentals” of crypto (if any) deteriorate further. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MacD_Bollinger
2