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Halving2020

ANÁLISE **** GRÁFICO SEMANAL **** MÉDIO PRAZO **** HALVING !!!!!Saudações a todos !!! GOSTARIA DE EXPLANAR UMA ANÁLISE DE LONGO PRAZO NO GRÁFICO SEMANAL !!!!! Esta é uma análise bem básica porém interessante sobre o HALVING do Bitcoin ... No gráfico semanal, o btc está operando dentro de um forte triângulo que é formado pela LTA que passa pelo topo histórico e a LTB que representada pelo forte suporte que segurou o preço na faixa dos 3200 dólares resultante da grande correção /queda que iniciou em 2018 e se estendeu até o começo de 2019. Fiquemos atentos pois o Bitcoin está em um momento decisivo onde pode romper a LTA do triangulo e disparar rumo ao topo histórico de 20.000 dólares ou, caso respeite a LTA e corrija dentro do triangulo ... podemos enchergar a probabilidade de o momento decisivo para a alta ser justamente no mês de Maio de 2020 .... Bem no HALVING !!!! Complementando a ideia .... Conheço grandes Entusiastas, Trades e Holders que dizem que no momento em que o HALVING do BTC chegar o ativo já estará precificado ... ..... A exemplo da LITECOIN que teve seu HALVING há 3 dias .... e até o momento só cai e continua caindo após meses de altas inexplicáveis em 2019... Isso significa que a o HALVING da LITECOIN já está precificado ? Até o presente momento parece que sim ..... Sendo assim, devemos nos atentar a possibilidade de o BITCOIN sair deste triângulo antes do HALVING .... Estamos aqui atentos e torcendo para isso ... Mas como eu disse ... fiquemos atentos e não nos precipitemo ..... Agradeço a todos pela atenção !!! Bons trades !!!!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by gchabariberi
ANÁLISE **** GRÁFICO SEMANAL **** MÉDIO PRAZO **** HALVING !!!!!Saudações a todos !!! GOSTARIA DE EXPLANAR UMA ANÁLISE DE LONGO PRAZO NO GRÁFICO SEMANAL !!!!! Esta é uma análise bem básica porém interessante sobre o HALVING do Bitcoin ... No gráfico semanal, o btc está operando dentro de um forte triângulo que é formado pela LTA que passa pelo topo histórico e a LTB que representada pelo forte suporte que segurou o preço na faixa dos 3200 dólares resultante da grande correção /queda que iniciou em 2018 e se estendeu até o começo de 2019. Fiquemos atentos pois o Bitcoin está em um momento decisivo onde pode romper a LTA do triangulo e disparar rumo ao topo histórico de 20.000 dólares ou, caso respeite a LTA e corrija dentro do triangulo ... podemos enchergar a probabilidade de o momento decisivo para a alta ser justamente no mês de Maio de 2020 .... Bem no HALVING !!!! Agradeço a todos pela atenção !!! Bons trades !!!!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by gchabariberi
Bitcoin - To The Moon and BeyondHello world, and trading The week was a heck of a ride was it not? I know we still have a couple hours to go before this week's candle official closes but I'm going to go ahead and call this a green week. lol. For those of you following my work you already know this chart pretty good. For those that don't you will notice that after the previous breakout (yellow left) Bitcoin experienced SEVERAL weeks of bullish price increases before taking a break, then resumed again, and again, and again until finally topping out around $20K. We appear to be in the same pattern. Breakout, touch-back, red week, engulfed by green week, followed by many green weeks to follow. You can of course short this if you want, but I believe those still calling for $6K and especially $3K are just smoking crack cocaine or some other illegal substance in my opinion. Can you make money on the short side too? Sure you can if you are a friggin trading ninja and are well skilled at snatching raw chicken out of the mouths of alligators. But go ahead, try your luck. You may be the ONE. :0) Why fight the trend? Look at the 50/200 (Golden Cross) daily moving average cross on the right of the chart. It crossed and just keeps expanding. To get those averages to uncross right now somebody would have to crack Bitcoin and ruin it for everybody forever. Really, it would take a complete failure of Bitcoin to get prices to come back down that far right now and uncross those averages. Look at the same averages on the left of the chart. Look at how long they held up under the last bull run. It takes a lot and a long time to uncross these averages once they cross over bullish . The top of the 21 week MA, right now, is about $6800K, just to touch it. Do people really think we are going to undo all the progress of the past few weeks in just a few hours, days, weeks, etc. and break below $6K. Really? Again, it just tells me that crack is cheap right now and all the Bears are smoking it. We may not hit $20K next week but we ain't hitting $6K either. The odds and averages say we are going higher long term not lower so don't buy the BS. Moving averenge 200MA is pra cima isso é muito bullish What is driving this? For me it is what is has always been. The scarcity and security of Bitcoin as a store of value. Like physical gold , a place to park your savings and wealth so that it does not loose purchasing power over time. Has anybody that bought gold or BTC lost their purchasing power from 10 years ago? I don't think so. If anything it has increased tremendously, especially for BTC . This is what people want in sound money. Limited supply, no government control, no unlimited printing, secure, easily stored, easily divided, easily transported, easily transferred, and cannot be counterfeit. Bitcoin has ALL the benefits of gold and several benefits that gold does not have. You can't make a Gold watch with Bitcoin , but you sure can buy a very nice gold watch with Bitcoin . Rolex anyone? :0) What else is driving Bitcoin right now? The financial industry, Facebook , and the public awareness that brings. In short, the Facebook news about Libra is a good thing for Bitcoin . It validates the idea of crypto and brings awareness to those sitting on the fence. The big difference is that Libra will be tied to fiat currency value and other debt instruments. All the crap that is NOT associated with Bitcoin . People argue "But Libra will be stable" That may be true. Libra may achieve the goal of always being worth about 1 dollar or 1 whatever the unit may be. Here's the rub. Over time whatever cost you 1 Libra today may cost you 10 or 100 Libra later. It will lose purchasing power over time just like all the crap it is supposed to represent. How is Bitcoin different? It is actually a form of real MONEY, not just a currency. The value of Bitcoin when compared to all other currencies will continue to rise in those units as those units continue to race towards zero. All fiat currencies eventually get reset and go to zero. History is littered with dead currencies, not money, currencies. We have been taught that green toilet paper is "money" and it is NOT. It is fiat currency printed by the government in unlimited quantities and dilutes all those green pieces of toilet paper that were printed before them. We all need to recognize the difference between what is sound money and what is just a currency. When you can figure out the distinctions you will be in a much better frame of mind as to were to invest your labor. At any rate, that's my rant for this week. I'm still bullish on Bitcoin and plan to be for quite some time. The halving is coming up next year and the projected stock to flow ratio puts BTC at no less than $ 60K at that time. Is that a guarantee? We will not know until we see it. Nothing is guaranteed in life. Everything is a risk. But for me, being long on Bitcoin is a risk I am willing to take. Especially when I compare it to all other options available. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin, the only real money I am currently aware of. I said "money" not assets, currency, valuables, etc. I said money. I hope this week you are treated more and more Satoshis in your pile. If you were a Bear, sorry about your luck. For the right price you can get your skins. They are on the floor in front of my fireplace right now but I have more than I need. Please come buy them back, I'm trying to get rid of them. : 0) Bear, I'm sorry for you.
BNC:BLXLong
by ferGOD
Litecoin vs Bitcoin (Halving )Bitcoin Halving In May 2020 (Be Genius ) The next Bitcoin halving is less than a year away, and Litecoin’s block rewards are expected to fall within two months. These events are likely to restrict the supply of both cryptocurrencies, leading some speculators to count on the reduced supply for another bull run. In fact, given the recent run-up in price to a 12-month high of $128 at the time of writing, Litecoin halving fever already seems to have struck the market. BTC Can Hit 16000$ Easily If Follows The LTC Halving Scenario.. This Is Not A Financial Advise..I Might Be Wrong.. Thanks For Your Time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Faibik
Bitcoin's coded "bubble" cycle? #CryptonomicsBitcoin roared out of the bear market (and the accumulation phase) going from 3K to 9K! It blew through the strong support turned strong resistance at $6,000 - $6500 (the pre-capitulation level) and set a 2019 high of $9096 showing the sidelined demand with fear of missing out. This strong movement correlates with Bitcoin's previous Cryptonomics cycle price action, especially moving from the accumulation phase into the expansion phase and back into the final phase before the bull market; the re-accumulation phase. Characteristic of the expansion phase, key MA's crossover, bullish signs are everywhere, and price performance confirms the accuracy of the indicators, BUT there is still time until the miners begin to price in the coming halving (50% reduction to miner rewards). Historically, miners begin to account for the coded adjustment 180 days (6 months) from the day of the halving. In free market, price is an expression of supply & demand. During the expansionary phase, DEMAND is the highest weighted variable and therefore has the strongest influence as the price driver. However, in the 180 day window miners will begin to raise the premium on their Bitcoin in order for Bitcoin to be valued at a spot price in 6 months that will remain profitable. At this point (180 days-to-halving NOV 24 2019) SUPPLY becomes the highest weighted variable and therefore the key influencer of price. Demand can continue to increase and boost the effects of the supply shock. Bitcoin never breaks its previous cryptonomics cycle high (2nd Cycle High - 20K) before the halving. Historically, there is a "sell the news" selloff post-halving. This will be your last opportunity to buy discount coins before Bitcoin bounces and breaks it previous all-time high. Projected BTC peak of 3rd Cryptonomics cycle: $90,000 - $140,000 (Or 10x the halving day May 22,2020 value). Learn more and see more charts and stats in the Special Report: Cryptonomics
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Christian_Investment_Analysis
1
Estimated Tothemoon Model. $150K in 2022Welcome to advanced Tothemoon analysis! Well I did something) The estimated Tothemoon model. This is an example of how you can use the fundamental Bitcoin metrics along with simple proportions and drawings. And without any H&S, gartleys and butterflies. Okay, I'll tell you briefly what I've done. Used tools: 1) Cost per Transaction ( $/Tx , miners revenue divided by the number of transactions) 2) The blue line represents Bitcoin's ATH price 3) The black line represents ATH $/Tx mapped to the corresponding price on the chart 4) Bitcoin Halvings (the dates are shifted because the time scale doesn't contain such dates) I made several conclusions that may seem obvious, but still: ATHs of the $/Tx and price happened at the same time . $/Tx starts to decrease after a new ATH price was reached. A new $/Tx peak will happen in the middle of 2022 . The ATH-to-ATH price movement can give about 600% . Each new ATH-to-ATH gain is approximately one-third of the previous gain. The price starts to grow up after each halving . The price crosses its ATH levels after each halving . So, we cannot be sure that the previous ATH of $20K will be reached before the 3rd halving will happen. The periods that are needed to pass ATH levels after each halving look like an arithmetic progression. For the 1st halving it was about 4 months , for the 2nd - 8 months . Thus, for the 3rd it can be 12 months . The 3rd halving's growth will be 900-1000% approximately. We can expect approximately a 2-year growth after the 3rd halving. According to the model the price can drop again in the nearest months of 2019 . And then it will continue to approach the ATH $/Tx level. There can play positive news about Bakkt and ETFs. Bitcoin will reach $100K in 3 years. The estimated target at the end of the 3rd halving cycle is $150K . You can see all of this on the chart. Good luck and Happy Trading!
BNC:BLX
by everget
13
Next Bitcoin Bull Run Climax -Top Cap Derived EstimateTop Cap Derived Estimate for Next Bull Run Climax Intro A great indicator to use for catching the upper bounds in a bull run is top cap. Historically it has perfectly coincided with previous blow off tops. Another good one to use is the Puell Multiple . Let me also qualify this long positon as a HODL / long term position - not a speculative move. Description TopCap = Average Cap * 35 TopCap / TotalCoinSupply = Estimated Bullrun Climax Ideas/Hypothesis Please note that as the next bullrun occurs, Top Cap will continue to rise as well, which is why this is not an absolute value, but rather a potential range. I think anywhere from 50-90k is possible based on this setup. Peak/Plateau Cycle After a climax, and during a bear market, the top cap will continue increasing until it reaches a plateau point. I call this "Peak to Plateau." Then it goes flat for a bit and starts increasing again as the next bull cycle materializes. 'I call this Plateau to Peak." As time goes on, the percent increase of each peak/plateau phase is diminishing (as other indicators corroborate as well, such as the Mayer Multiple or MVRV). Your thoughts? Do you have an opinion or idea regarding Top Cap, or the price projections here? I would love to hear your input so I can further refine and improve the indicator! Closing Remarks Enjoying this indicator/idea or find it useful? Please give me a like and follow! I post crypto analysis, price action strategies and free indicators regularly. Questions? Comments? Want to get access to an entire suite of proven trading indicators? Come visit us on telegram and chat, or just soak up some knowledge. We make timely posts about the market, news, and strategy everyday. Our community isn't open only to subscribers - everyone is welcome to join. For Trialers & Chat: t.me
BNC:BLXLong
by theheirophant
Bitcoin's Previous Beark Market and it's SimilaritiesWe are about 500 days into the bear market now and I thought it would be fun to record the similarities between the current bear market and the previous one. Below, we may see what the future could look like. To start, we can see the bottom of the previous bear market was almost 87% less than the all time high compared to the current 84% bottom. Both times it took about a year to get there. (Show in the chart above.) Below we see on July 9, 2015 (one year before the bitcoin halving) price had rallied to the 50 week moving average (red line) then subsequently fell by 34%. This was the last low before price rallied to the halving date. Now, keep in mind history will not repeat PERFECTLY . Recently, price rallied to the 50 week moving average on April 23, 2019. This movement is very similar to the previous one albeit a little early if we are considering the "one year before halving" prediction. We also notice that after price bounced off the 50 week moving average it fell down to the 200 week moving average (blue line). I find it very interesting that the 34% decline in both scenarios line up with the 200 week moving average closely. So far, the symmetry is uncanny, to say the least. I feel like, until we see a major deviation in this pattern, we can expect a similar outcome. I am expecting one more drop before we see a significant rally. I will be looking for bullish news leading up to the drop. If the majority of traders are usually on the wrong side of the trade then it would be reasonable to see a lot of talk about bitcoin being in a bull market and that price could go to $X,XXX. The price retraction should catch people by surprise. On the other hand... Some things are different this time around. People are more aware of bitcoin, it's halving, and it's 4 year cycle. As well as the new option for short trades. I'm still trying to decide how these factor in. I am still bullish and I am still expecting a retraction in the near term, but unsure of how great the upside will be. As of now, I am confident price can reach $10k. After the halving next year, I won't be surprised to see price between $30k and $50k, but I am unsure the likelihood of that outcome due to the ability to short sell now and the upcoming economic downturn/ global financial crisis. I am curious about your opinion on this analysis. Please leave a comment about your thoughts on how short selling and the upcoming crash could affect the future of bitcoin. As well as any thoughts on how greater bitcoin awareness will affect it's future price. I can see both sides and am interested in gathering opinions. PM me if you do not won't your comments public, I would still like to hear from you. As always: Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AnotherAnalyst
BTC Halvnig: statistical price analysis - 150 000 USD?New bitcoins are issued by the Bitcoin network every 10 minutes. For the first four years of Bitcoin's existence, the amount of new bitcoins issued every 10 minutes was 50. Every four years, this number is cut in half. The day the amount halves is called a "halving".The halving decreases the amount of new bitcoins generated per block. This means the supply of new bitcoins is lower. In normal markets, lower supply with steady demand usually leads to higher prices. Since the halving reduces the supply of new bitcoins, and demand usually remains steady, the halving has usually preceded some of Bitcoin's largest runs. Bitcoin currency is because of halving deflating. Normaly when the need for money is bigger banks print more money: because of that inflation of currency can happen. That means the money isnt worth anything. Currency prices skyrocket by the hour. This has happened many times in course of human history. Bitcoin on the other hand has limited supply and every halving means that the price of 1 bitcoin has to increase to cover the cost of mining. Many times has been said that after the halving nothing will happen or miners will stop to mine Bitcoin, that just didnt happen. I got inspiration for this analysis from a youtube video published in 2015 before the halving of 2016. Man in the video has predicted that the price of BTC will skyrocket after the halving because it has happen before. At the time he was would be probably proclaimed to be insane, but still here we are in year 2019 and the price is 5000 dollars. If you want to see this video which is fascinating on the fact he was right you can acces it here: www.youtube.com In my statistical analysis I covered how much has the price changed in the folowing years. I took a measurement of 3000% increase after halving and tried to implement it in today price. On first graph i covered price from the first halving on BTC until 3000% increase. On my second graph u can see that 3000% increase in price also happened but it took BTC more time. Third graph shows the halving that will happen on 21.05.2020. I took base price range for today BTC price. Until 21.05.2020 price will surely change. I simply added 3000% increase in price of today and got a price 150 000 USD. Assuming that the price will change until 21.05.2020, and it would be 20 000 USD which I think it could be, then 3000% increase would be = 600 000 USD. Crazy right :D
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoSlavest
BTC - bullish monthly fractal patterns Some interesting symmetries exist in BTC bull/bear cycles that I don't believe have appeared as cleanly before in other assets. My belief which will take several years to play out is these cycles are fundamental to Bitcoin alone due to the nature of it's 4 year supply shock related to the halving. It appears to forecast that 6-12 months prior to the 4 year block reward halving market supply dries up as accumulation begins. The early accumulators buy up the excess supply from a deep bear market which evens the supply curve of new coins. This accumulation forms the flattening period to setup the next bull run. Halving occurs creating supply shock during a bull market while demand is steadily rising. Rapidly rising demand drives FOMO buyers to market creating a parabolic price move. This final parabolic push creates a 700% price move in it's final stage. The duration of the parabolic move takes longer each cycle as total market mass is larger each cycle. The actualization of astronomical raises in price leads to tipping point of profit taking as the older holders sell holding which pushes coins back into supply. This cascades into a tipping point creating the massive descending triangles as supply increases in large moves down are made and the market reconsolidates at a price point to absorb the new supply. Given bear markets are not attritive to new investors the market continues to consolidate and move down as short/medium term players abandon positions until there is no one left to sell. IF bitcoin markets rhyme based on the underlying supply halving cycles this would explain why Bitcoin moves uniquely compared to other assets that have come before it and in such rhythmic pattern. It will take years to validate this idea but if our premise holds. The cycles between bull markets is approximately 639 days which may shorten in the future as investors seek to get ahead of each other to accumulate. Despite the deep correction the bear market has made and while the market may still head lower as traders/speculators abandon positions I'm still as bullish as I ever was. I don't know where the market will bottom, the triangle indicates July/August of this year, but for those with a longer term outlook I would be much rather be a buyer in Feb-Aug of 2019 than in Feb-Aug of 2020.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RyanRogus
1
Why should slowly get ready for long in 3 months History repeats itself, especially in crypto market, as there's not much fundamental support to these assets these days. We shall be excited, as god gives us a second chance to engage crypto/blockchain revolution at a reasonable price level. Litecoin halving might bring us the first bull run of 2019, roughly from May or June to July or early August, for the following reasons: 1 Tax season at late March, early April, not only traders (though this year might not be significant), but also miners, stakers will be affected. 2 Litecoin halving in August, but market will react months before that, and will realize profit after that (same as buy the rumor, sell the news). So get ready for the potential big bull run, and LTCUSD shall be the best trading pair you would like to choose: Strategy: 1 Wait for or Short after final bounce to the bottom: BTC has not yet reached bottom, so does LTC, I would say 15-20 dollars as reasonable level 2 Long during the bull run and exit when price target 75-80 dollars (4-5x from bottom as history implies, may subject to change) is reached P.S. 75-80 dollars is a higher resistance zone above 50 dollars (like 6k to BTC), in 2015, LTCUSD price shot through 5 dollars (like 50 dollars to LTC and 6k to BTC today) during the halving bull run, and reached higher resistance zone. Check blow:
BITFINEX:LTCUSDLong
by BonnaZhu