Hilary — Trading Ideas on TradingView

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - TRUMP TO WIN - SHORT SPX & LONG VIX Preparing for a Trump win Following Friday and the FBIs decision to re-open the case on Hilary I have decided I am going to assume A Trump win, this is for several reasons: FBI pbs.twimg.com 1) After reading into it, the reopening of the FBI case implies one of three things imo - 1. They have found new significant information that can or will see Hilary odds come under-pressure if not ruled out entirely. 2. A third party (wiki leaks or Russia etc) has obtained information regarding that matter that will be used against Hilary. 3. The FBI Chief fancies his 2 minutes of fame. - In terms of likelihoods, 1 is perhaps the most likely - I find the timing of the reopening the most damning argument for there being some real anti-hilary firepower, given it is within the FBIs discretion to reopen the case now, surely if it wasnt that important they could wait until after? Of course this may be questionable integrity but equally some may argue they should have done so to stay neutral. However, perhaps most interestingly, the timing AND the fact the FBI have been pro Hilary in the past also gives weight to number 2 - where the FBI have had their hnd forced e.g. if a 3rd party does indeed have some relevant information the FBI perhaps dont want to be seen as incompetent and thus want to get infront of the news. The timing also supports argument 2 since it is a bit of a shock announcement and thus it could be a 3rd party forcing their hand. On the other hand some may question why a 3rd party would notify the FBI and not just release it. Finally, 3 as is the case in most public situations, it is possible and it is the US after all. however, an argument against this is the fact the FBI have been pro Hilary so its unlikely this would only happen for fame. - If it is any of the 2 above and information that could write Hilary off as a candidate, of course positioning for Trump make sense. especially when the market is very very short trump here. Since Friday Trump has lost half of his gains to trade currently at 23% up from 18% but down from 27%, these are odds i like to start adding some length for trump. POLL voteforthepresidentonline.com 1) Recent official polls of 1000-2000 are a lot tighter than i expected and are certainly imply much longer odds for Trump. However the main decider for this variable is that an unofficial online poll of 1,000,000 shows trump trading at 526652 with Hilary lagging down at 253024, putting trump up at 60% and Hilary down at 30%. I saw an unofficial poll for brexit which had 700,000 respondents with 70% for leave and 30% remain and we know what happened there. IMO data rules, 1000 isnt enough to be representable there is too much sampling error. In conjucntion with this I feel there will be alot of closet trump voters.

USD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - SELL MXNJPY - RISK & SENSITIVITY Presidential Election - Trump wins - MXN more sensitive than USD, Yen to pick up the risk-off shift: 1. Positioning for a trump win is much more interesting than a hilary win but nonetheless both should be profitable at some level. My number 1 position will be SHORT MXNJPY for a number of reasons 1) MXN has been very sensitive to the USD election given trade claims made by trump which would likely have a greater than brexit effect on the Peso. This in mind however MXN has been rallying recently as Trump winning odds have filtered into more of a tail probability. Nonetheless this just opens up great opp for profit in the even he does win (e.g. MXNJPY has rallied from 5 to 5.5 in the past few weeks as trump winning is being discounted, this opens up a whole 500pips of reward in the event he does win and MXN is shorted due to its sensitivity). - Further the reason i have chosen XXXJPY rather than XXXUSD as a denominator for the MXN short is because JPY is likely to rally as risk sentiment sours given trump is likely to create great global geopolitical tensions, thus risk-off demand is likely to trade through the roof. Not to mention being long USD vs MXN also will have muted gains given USD is also likely to be a political-economic victim of trump win volatility. - Term structure for the MXNJPY shorts imo will play much like GBPXXX downside has, the Trump uncertainty is likely to weigh on both the USD and MXN until at least the end of the year given policy intervention/ settling in will take this time. Thus i will be running this position for several weeks after election (i dont think we will see anyone buying the dip this side of 2017. Presidential Election - HIlary wins - Long MXNJPY possible but USDJPY bids perhaps makes better sense: 1. The inverse of the above is obviously to buy MXNJPY in the event of a Hilary win. HIlary imo is the neutral decision given her lust to be in the pockets of corporations. MXNJPY bids make equal sense however i think USDJPY will be better suited since MXNJPY forgo's the added topside USDJPY will gain through the FOMCs likely Dec hike plus MXNJPY has already rallied 10% in recent months into the election so calls for futher topside will likely be limited. USD on the other hand has remain relatively neutral in terms of Presidential flows. Yen will devalue in both cases as risk-off demand is flushed out. Trading Strategy - Trump SHORT MXNJPY, Hilary LONG USDJPY: 1. Short MXNJPY at mrkt as soon as the news is heard, perhaps 50% TP at 5.00 and 50% hold for a few days/ weeks. 2. Long USDJPY at market as soon as the news is heard, targeting 108,109,111.

How to Play The SPY if Trump or Hillary Wins the Election The plan to play the SPY is to buy this Wave 4 dip in the 173-170 range. I do not want to be in this trade if we start breaking the 165 level so I have set my stop below that. I think nearing the presidential elections takes us lower and markets get real choppy during this time so my entry will be planned and timed very well during this time. Once a president is elected it is going to be a good day in America and the people staying out of the market because of its pre-election volatility and bearishness with begin to put money back into the market hitting our target.